Topic: The Big Thread of Wii Launch Pessimism: All the things that could go wrong!

[RiskyChris]

I'm worried with controller interference.  Next year I'm living in-house at my frat, and I can guarantee that at least one or two other rooms on my floor will be picking one up.

[mantidor]

"7. People complain about Zelda for Wii feeling "un-whole"
What if the gaming media latches onto this game and starts complaining more about how Nintendo shoe-horned a GC game into the Wii than about the Wii's benefits?"

Im pretty sure this will happen. Its really sad that Nintendo actually pushed TP as one of the big launch titles. Back when I was supposing Nintendo was going to do it I was kind of joking, because I didnt expect Nintendo to be so stupid. This little  tactic they are pushing has a terrible flaw. Nintendo is claiming the controller to be the new way to play games, the real next generation, yet this game has a GC counterpart, it really makes the remote looks like just replacing buttons for gestures and it really afffects the overall image of the remote, it just doesnt seem to be that innovative. Maybe if this wasn't being advertised as a big launch title but rather a GC title with aditional benefits for wii owners the press could react better.

Besides it was totally unnecessary. Being the console so cheap TP could be use to advertize the backward compatibility without any shoehorned functionality. All they did was to tremendously piss off some of us. I really doubt the people who werent going to touch TP and now are going to because of the functionality are significant to the console's success. I even think is totally possible the "non-games" like wii-sports or wii-music will outsell TP wii version easily. In fact thats exactly what Nintendo wants, they want Nintendogs/Brain Age-like success with the console and that wont be achieved with Zelda.

[Ian Sane]

"What if Nintendo succeeds and we are no longer rooting for the under dog?"

I've never rooted for Nintendo because they're the underdog.  My fandom of Nintendo is more like being a Toronto Maple Leaf fan.  I'm rooting for a team that used to be a powerhouse and used to win all the time and now isn't, which is frustrating since I still kind of expect them to.

"Nintendo is claiming the controller to be the new way to play games, the real next generation, yet this game has a GC counterpart, it really makes the remote looks like just replacing buttons for gestures and it really afffects the overall image of the remote, it just doesnt seem to be that innovative."

I agree with this.  I've never been too hot for the DS touchscreen and a big reason for that is that Nintendo made a big stink about it like it was some essential feature and then their flagship title was Super Mario 64.  Well that gave me something to compare to and it was immediately obvious that the N64 game controlled better than the DS game.  Ooops.  Not exactly an ideal first impression.  But then that didn't hurt the DS so Nintendo probably thinks something similar won't hurt the Wii.  I think the DS got really lucky with the PSP being a total dud.  Though now that the PS3 is $600 I think the Wii's situation is looking a whole lot more like the DS' situation, so maybe it won't matter.

[Smash_Brother]

Quote
Originally posted by: mantidor
Besides it was totally unnecessary. Being the console so cheap TP could be use to advertize the backward compatibility without any shoehorned functionality. All they did was to tremendously piss off some of us. I really doubt the people who werent going to touch TP and now are going to because of the functionality are significant to the console's success. I even think is totally possible the "non-games" like wii-sports or wii-music will outsell TP wii version easily. In fact thats exactly what Nintendo wants, they want Nintendogs/Brain Age-like success with the console and that wont be achieved with Zelda.

I look at this a step down the road.

Let's review the facts:

1. There are a certain group of gamers who will only ever TOUCH a Nintendo console when it is graced with a Zelda game, the "Zelda Zealots", if you will. For many people, Wind Waker was NOT this game.

2. The Gamecube had craptacular 3rd party support through its life and a craptacular launch.

3. The sale of the console is the hardest sale to make. The software sales come far easier after someone has bought the console already.

4. Using TP to push the Wii will get far more people to buy the console, which is good for everyone, customers and developers alike.

Using TP to push the Wii increases the chances that it will not suffer the same fate as the GC did. In that light, I cannot fault Nintendo for choosing to do so.  

[mantidor]

You (and Nintendo) are putting way too much credit into the selling power of Zelda. The Zelda zealots you mentioned are not significant enough to "save" the sales of any console.

But anyway, the launch is already pretty good without that game, thats why is so unnecessary.

[Smash_Brother]

Quote
Originally posted by: mantidor
You (and Nintendo) are putting way too much credit into the selling power of Zelda. The Zelda zealots you mentioned are not significant enough to "save" the sales of any console.

And you're putting way too much credit into the alleged anger of scorned Nintendo fanbois.

Every bit helps, and a Nintendo console launching with a Metroid game AND a Zelda game is unheard of. The graphical upgrades the Wii offers are more than worth it and the new control scheme will go a long way toward keeping the experience fresh.

Even the most die-hard Sony and MS fanboys are going to look at TP on the Wii on launch day and say, "Damn, that looks nice..." Pair that with MP3 and I believe you'll scarcely find a gamer who will have an excuse to not own one.

The Wii, more than any of Nintendo's previous consoles, needs to make the biggest splash possible when it launches, and if that means holding TP off another few months, so be it.

[mantidor]

Im not putting credit into anything My rants wont do a damn thing to affect Nintendo's decisions. Im just saying the effect of TP wii version for the console is practically negligible, even if the press goes with me and criticize the controls to no end. The launch is good, third parties are on board and the remote so far has delivered. Now if this was a totally new Zelda developed from the ground up for the console the impact on launch might be bigger, but with a GC counterpart the attention the game recieves is split, and it doesnt have the same effect....

Now that you made me think about it thats exactly why Nintendo is downplaying the GC original version, people are dumb enough to believe this is wii "exclusive" when it isnt. Forget about the sony and ms fanboys looking TP as having good graphics though, they already are saying it looks like crap.

[JonLeung]

You've got Majora's Mask as your avatar...don't you like Zelda?

The thing that I heard from people who own more than one game console this generation, one of which is a GameCube, say they got it "mostly just for Zelda and Metroid".

Having both Zelda and Metroid available for launch is a pretty strong start if those are the franchises people who aren't total Nintendo fans still raise an eyebrow at in interest.  They appeal more to the older casual gamer than Mario, sorry to say.

I almost wonder why Nintendo doesn't space out those two releases, but if they want to throw out their big guns at launch, it probably says something like "look, we're not forgetting our big, epic franchises!", especially to those who think the Wii will just be about mini-games or quickie games like WarioWare or Wii Sports.

Not that there's anything wrong with WarioWare or Wii Sports, but I think people will want to know that full-fledged adventures will still be an available genre.

[couchmonkey]

I'm surprised nobody suggested games getting delayed.  A delay for MP3 seems entirely possible to me.  Something like that could hurt.

Marketing and getting demo machines to the public is going to be one of the biggest challenges.  Maybe Nintendo should set up stand-alone demo kiosks in malls all over. I think that would be a great idea...that's how Shaw sold people on cable internet back when it was still new, it can work really well for a "show me" product like Wii, and it also delivers the system to people who don't want to hang out in EB Games.

I don't know why so many people are down on the GameCube launch, I thought it was good.  The only thing it was really lacking was that one big adventure-type game, like Mario or Zelda.  Microsoft supposedly had that game in Halo, but otherwise they had Project Gotham, DOA 3, and not a lot else.  On launch day, Nintendo might not have been better than MS, but a few weeks later when Pikmin and SSB:Melee joined the game selection?  GameCube beat Xbox, and blew PS2's launch right out of the water.

[Ian Sane]

"There are a certain group of gamers who will only ever TOUCH a Nintendo console when it is graced with a Zelda game, the 'Zelda Zealots', if you will. For many people, Wind Waker was NOT this game."

I assume if someone is a "Zelda Zealot" they keep up enough with Zelda news to have heard about the generally poor impressions the Wii version of Zelda received at E3.  Why pay more money for a Wii when you can spend significantly less money on a Cube and get the same game with non-borked controls?  And if you're a Zelda fan that already bought a Cube for Wind Waker why pay more money for a new console when the same game is available on the console you own?

I think the only people who will buy a Wii for Zelda will either be ignorant types who don't read reviews or impressions or the die-hard Nintendo nuts that would buy the Wii no matter what.

We talk about the launch in a positive light but we honestly don't know what the launch is exactly.  It's assumed Metroid will be a launch title and I think it was annouced as such but there could be a delay or it's one of those pesky "launch period" wishy-washy situations where a Nintendo exec's view of a launch game and everyone else's view of a launch game is totally different.

[Smash_Brother]

Quote
Originally posted by: mantidor My rants wont do a damn thing to affect Nintendo's decisions. Im just saying the effect of TP wii version for the console is practically negligible, even if the press goes with me and criticize the controls to no end. The launch is good, third parties are on board and the remote so far has delivered. Now if this was a totally new Zelda developed from the ground up for the console the impact on launch might be bigger, but with a GC counterpart the attention the game recieves is split, and it doesnt have the same effect....

I'm not convinced that anyone will even acknowledge the GC version except the die-hard Nintendo fans, what with how little press and fanfare the cube gets.

Releasing an incredible game for a console which Nintendo themselves left to gather dust for two years isn't suddenly going to make everything right again.

Quote
Now that you made me think about it thats exactly why Nintendo is downplaying the GC original version, people are dumb enough to believe this is wii "exclusive" when it isnt. Forget about the sony and ms fanboys looking TP as having good graphics though, they already are saying it looks like crap.

It's not that they're dumb enough, it's that the GC failed to the point where many people don't even consider its presence relevant.

Also, care to quote me some of these fanbois?

I think Nintendo is doing an excellent job when it comes to winning back some of their lost market share. All of the people who blasted Nintendo for not paying enough attention to older gamers and bought a competing console will have a slew of franchises aimed at older gamers available on the Wii from day one: TP, MP3, Red Steel, CoD3, etc. (I'm sure I'm forgetting some). Graphic whores aside, they're bringing the goddamn GAMES which is something they had a tremendously hard time with during the GC's launch.

The choice is simple:

A) Release a fantastic game which probably cost millions in development onto a dying console with little hope and/or promise.

B) Release the same game on your promising new console as a launch title, giving potential buyers even more of a reason to pick it up and likely earning the game more sales than it would have seen on your previous console.

But they went with...

C) Release the game on both consoles, an improved version on your new console, and market the hell out of the new version in an attempt to satisfy both the owners of the old console and potential owners of the new console.

It's a no-brainer.

[JonLeung]

In Japan, Twilight Princess isn't coming out for the 'Cube too, is it?

I'm not against the idea of Twilight Princess on the 'Cube if they think it will sell.  I guess they didn't want to break their promise that it would be on the GameCube.  (Though how much does a promise matter, when SSB:B was supposedly for launch?)  I still think it's a little redundant, honestly.

There should be some sort of coupon with the GameCube game for the Wii game, or if you register both versions on the Nintendo web site you get some kind of coupon or voucher or rebate or something.  I would hate to be a person who buys the GameCube version and then find out that I love the Wii and then wonder why I just didn't buy the Wii version in the first place.  It's like, after E3, who wouldn't get a Wii?  And it plays GameCube games too anyway.

[Rhoq]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ian Sane
I've never been too hot for the DS touchscreen and a big reason for that is that Nintendo made a big stink about it like it was some essential feature and then their flagship title was Super Mario 64.  Well that gave me something to compare to and it was immediately obvious that the N64 game controlled better than the DS game.  Ooops.  Not exactly an ideal first impression.  But then that didn't hurt the DS so Nintendo probably thinks something similar won't hurt the Wii.

I believe there is a big difference in the case of SM64DS and LOZ:TTP Wii. When the DS launched, I remember Nintendo mentioning (and somewhat bragging) that Super Mario 64 DS was the result of approximately 9 months of worth of porting and retooling to work with the touch screen. Given more time, I believe the touch screen analog control could've been a bit tighter (let's face it, it will never be perfect, but it can be at least adequate).

With the Legend Of Zelda, I wouldn't be surprised if Wii control had been in development all long (or at least since early 2005). By the time the game is finally released this Fall, the Wii controls should have had a good 18 to 24 months worth of development time, if not more. Even though Nintendo dismissed all of those "Zelda moved to Revolution" rumors, I've always believed that it was the most logical thing to do. Those rumors had been around since before E3 2005 and it probably came from a source workin for Nintendo.

Nintendo sure as hell has had a jumpstart on working with the controller technology and I fully expect the Wii version to play just as well as the GameCube version. If it doesn't, it could really turn people off and quite honestly Nintendo can't afford to make that mistake and they know it.  

[Smash_Brother]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ian Sane I think the only people who will buy a Wii for Zelda will either be ignorant types who don't read reviews or impressions or the die-hard Nintendo nuts that would buy the Wii no matter what.

It's safe to assume that more of the former exist than the latter, many millions more.

Furthermore, I've heard mixed reviews about every Wii game at E3. Some people loved it, others said it was too difficult to control.

But the real truth of the matter is that all of these people played the Wii game (which are all unfinished) under some downright sh*tty conditions.

First of all, they had 5-10 minutes, tops, to get a hang of the control schemes. For most people (I'm betting myself included) that's not NEARLY long enough to adjust.

Second, TP isn't finished. None of those games were finished. In fact, I'd be stunned if most of these games didn't have the control schemes altered, refined or possibly revamped entirely by the time they launched.

Third, any "Zelda Zealot" who's smart enough to read the impressions will also be smart enough to understand that the game isn't done.

The term "Zelda Zealot" is somewhat misleading: I don't mean a person who is a die-hard Zelda fan, but rather a person who believes that the only thing worth playing on a Nintendo console is LoZ and like I said, I don't think WW would have been their cup of tea.

Rather than snag these people at the end of the GC's lifespan, every shred of common sense says to try to sell them a Wii. JonLeung is right: most people do buy Nintendo consoles just for Metroid and Zelda. Thus, having both available for launch will ensure that the Wii TRULY hits the ground running.

Remember, Nintendo isn't doing this to show that the they can push copies of age-old franchises. They're doing this because they need to further convince developers who are on the fence that the Wii can indeed bring the big numbers and stellar sales on launch day will establish that point as a fact.

[Spak-Spang]

Most of these things I am not worried about.

The concerns about the controllers I think are blown out of proportion.  

1) We know that Nintendo is still working on the controllers and still working to getting the design perfect...which includes functionality.  I think most of concerns with the controller are from commentary about using the controller at E3.  Well E3 is the most extreme case of using a controller, and is DEFINATELY not optimal playing conditions.  So I believe in the end, this will be a nonissue.

2)Games will come when they come.  Nintendo is learning how to stagger games better and better...and they are learning everyday how to strength their marketing, and product lines.  We notice Nintendo is not afraid to release two titles for a system on the same day anymore. (Tetris and Metroid Prime: Hunters) and Nintendo has commented how they understand launch lineup is important.  So games will be available when they are ready, and they will be great.

3)Online will come when it comes.  People are worried that Nintendo still isn't taking online seriously, and I don't buy it.  Sure there may or may not be any online ready games by launch, but Nintendo has been talking and pushing online content with the Wii since the beginning.  I can wait for a great experience.

4)Third Party games not being up to quality with the controller.  I hear these concerns, yet every developer interview we have read and heard has discussed how committed they are to exploring the full potential of the controller, and spending the necessary time in perfecting it.  Even reading about the Spongbob Square Pants game, the control seems innovative and creative.  

5)Only a small amount of virtual console games available at launch.  I just really don't see how that will be likely.  It isn't going to take long to convert the ROMS into a virtual console format, and we have known about the virtual console for over a year...which means Nintendo has already known about it for even longer.  Plus, comments that over 100 Sega Genesis and Turbo Graphics 16 games will be available for the console means that Nintendo literally has 100s and 100s of games to put out on the console.  There is no need to worry about releasing too many at once and running out, or anything.  

6)Too many accessories at launch.  This could bring up problems.  But there is only 2 real accessories you need for the Wii.  The classic controllers and the Wiimote.  Everything else will be available for niche gaming, if you desire it.  (Such as the Wiigun) and most of those will be packed into the game using it.

Basically I think these problems are really none issues for the consumer.  They will only become a problem if they haven't been addressed much later after launch...and some are just paranoia anyway.

[couchmonkey]

Spak-Spang's point 4 is true  - the team developing Tony Hawk's Downhill Jam have even gone as far as to strap the controller to skateboards to see how accurate the control is.  I believe third parties are putting a surprising amount of effort into getting Wii control right...certainly more than with the DS.

[Aussiedude]

The entire first shipment could get stolen.

[Sir_Stabbalot]

Also, don't forget the biggest problem: Perception. What if the Wii is seen as a kid's toy like the GameCube was?

[JonLeung]

Quote
Originally posted by: Aussiedude
The entire first shipment could get stolen.

Well, if you want to get really pessimistic...

3. Despite laws likely prohibiting such monopolistic actions, Microsoft buys every single Wii only to physically destroy them all.  (They can certainly afford to, except for the likely legal reprocussions.)

2. Some psychotic dictator turns out to be an anti-Nintendo fanboy and nukes Nintendo and every plant that has anything to do with the manufacture of Wii parts off of the planet.

1. The Earth or at least its inhabitants are destroyed by plague(s), asteroid(s), nuclear war, Vogons, God in a bad mood, etc.

[Smash_Brother]

I vote Vogons, but I think we're spelling it wrong...

[Frozen Atlantic]

I'm pretty sure it's Vogons.

[Smash_Brother]

Yeah, I just googled it. It's Vogons.

[Artimus]

What if Google is wrong?

Now THAT is pessimistic.

[IceCold]

Miyamoto passes away

[Smash_Brother]

Quote
Originally posted by: IceCold
Miyamoto passes away

I was horrified to learn that the motherf*cker is SMOKING but is trying to quit.

SMOKING, ffs...