I can see $250 with a game, or $200 for a basic unit. I believe they actually have the space to manuever on the price. Bbut I'm keeping my expectations low. I'm basically expecting a redux of a two SKU setup (ala Wii U) with a $250 base unit and a bundle/more-storage unit at $300.
I definitely agree that $200 would be all-guns blazing for Nintendo, and it would be really exciting to see, but I think it might be a better strategy for them to hold that in reserve for the future:
1. This is launch, and there's a group of people (like myself) who are more or less locked in to buy it unless it requires us to get two jobs to pay for it. Nintendo knows they can wrest a ton of money from my wallet already and probably won't leave that on the table.
2. This is launch, and if they get more people wanting to buy the Switch than they have supply they simply won't have enough consoles to sell to all those people ready to jump in at $200, no matter how much they want it.
3. They can always drop it to $200 later, like Holiday 2017, as a way of doing a big second wave of marketing push.
4. Nintendo has had lots of consoles launch at $250, both successes and failures. What will have a bigger effect on selling the console won't be a cheap price, but it's ability to sell a unique experience (hybrid) as well as a tempting software library (software sells games, not hardware).
I just don't think Nintendo needs to fire the $200 arrow just yet. If there are people willing to jump in only at $200 but not at $250, I don't see the big risk in Nintendo putting off those $200 consumers until Holiday 2017 while pocketing an extra $50 from each of those consumers who are just fine at $250.