Topic: E3 2012 Predictions

[Spak-Spang]

So, I am hoping that the Wii U is released sooner than later.  November is too late for the Wii U.  Mostly because it means to dry years of Wii.  Hopefully, it will release around Summer time.  April or May could be the earliest.

[Dasmos]

I wouldn't hold your breath for that, Spak.

[Ceric]

The orange version will be shown but will never see official release in America.

You mean Spice right?
This time though they will get it right and it will make you eyes glow Blue.

[nickmitch]

So, I am hoping that the Wii U is released sooner than later.  November is too late for the Wii U.  Mostly because it means to dry years of Wii.  Hopefully, it will release around Summer time.  April or May could be the earliest.

Yeah, because the last thing the Wii needs is a lengthy software drought to ruin its stellar reputation of have a consistent, steady stream of solid releases.

[Monteblanco]

Reggie will open telling us how great the 3DS is performing and will show trailers from some games we already saw in TGS and, perhaps, a brand new Nintendo title.

The DS and Wii will be briefly mentioned and, perhaps, they will show The Last Story as a late summer release.

Iwata will follow revealing the final form and name of the Wii U. He will talk about some features, including that Nintendo hired Valve to create and run the network.

Reggie will be back with the games, including Pikimin, Wii U Play (bundled game to show off the novel features and some Wii Sports modes, such as baseball and golf), and Killer Freaks. He will invite Peter Moore to the stage and will demo how the Wii U allows two controllers, in which a player can select plays in Madden on the without the fear to be peeked. Finally, Miyamoto will go to stage to show a new Mario 3D game (EAD Tokyo has two teams, one recently finished 3D Land, I guess the other is working with the Wii U).

Iwata will be back to stage and announce price and release date.

Meanwhile, I'll be very happy at home watching the stream.

[TJ Spyke]

So, I am hoping that the Wii U is released sooner than later.  November is too late for the Wii U.  Mostly because it means to dry years of Wii.  Hopefully, it will release around Summer time.  April or May could be the earliest.

Nintendo already confirmed it's not coming out until after E3, so April and May are out of the question. November is not that bad actually, and there will be games out on Wii (maybe not ones you like, but still games) until then. To me, September is the earliest it would happen.

[Spak-Spang]

I guess.  I just think the whole idea of launching right before Christmas is not a good strategy.  To me Summer is a better strategy.  Consoles almost always release with too few units to sell, and always have to play catch up for the second and third shipments.  Releasing in the Summer (July or August or even September) would allow for the earlier adopters to buy the system first and build hype and media attention that can ride through the Christmas holiday season when shipments 2 and 3 are larger and all the possible bugs are worked out of the online system and everything is smoothed out.  Then the casual and late adopters get in on the action for the big holiday season. 

Sure Nintendo needs some Wii games for this year, and they will come out...but honestly, 3rd parties are either moving projects now to the Wii U or ignoring the Wii and just releasing 360 and PS3 games.  Nintendo can't have enough games to fill the gap for basically another full year of Wii.  They are in the middle of crucial year of game development for the 3DS and launching a new system which needs great state of the art launch games. 

I just think Nintendo will be hurt more be becoming even  more irrelevent as this year goes by, and developers are going to take note about how Nintendo handles this transition and will follow there lead...which has been so far...drop the Wii like the plague and prepare for the new, or in developers cases the currently popular.

[Adrock]

Nintendo will face shortages during the holiday season no matter what time of year they launch the console because they only have X amount of available consoles for the entire year since it takes months to increase/decrease output. When new hardware launches, quarterly projections and profits are greatly affected. Hardware typically launches during the holiday season because that's when the greatest number of consumers are willing to spend the most amount of money.

Launching during that time of year is the best strategy. Nintendo wants to have the most amount of units available for that time of year and launching earlier greatly reduces that number. They could theoretically pepper those sales over the course of several months by launching in June but they potentially lose out on a higher attach rate of games and peripherals. A man who couldn't find a Wii U for his kids in November may have bought 3 extra controllers and 4 games, but I got a unit in June and I'm only buying 1 game at launch and maybe 1 during the holiday rush.

In the launch date prediction thread which I'm too lazy to dig up at the moment, I guessed that Nintendo would launch in June for 2 reasons. First, the Wii is on borrowed time and 3DS is left to carry the load on its own. Second, I thought the hardware was further along than it actually was. If production on Wii U has started already, they could still make a June launch date but then Nintendo runs into the same problem with launch 3DS so early in the year: the lineup suffers. If there's even the slightest chance that Nintendo could launch Wii U with a Mario game, but it wouldn't be ready until November, they better damn well wait until November.

[Chozo Ghost]

No matter when they launch it I predict its going to sell out and suffer terrible shortages for months (if not years) to come. Let's not forget what happened with the Wii's launch in 2006. This is also a great opportunity for people to make some money by camping in line and then getting a system and then turning around and selling it on ebay for $1,000 to suckers. Why not get in on that?

[Ceric]

If the big jump in developer kits is true I don't they have have finished the production line for the Wii U yet.  For June they would need to start production at some level soon.

I just don't think that they are at a point they can realistically do anything earlier then September.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I guess.  I just think the whole idea of launching right before Christmas is not a good strategy.  To me Summer is a better strategy.  Consoles almost always release with too few units to sell, and always have to play catch up for the second and third shipments.  Releasing in the Summer (July or August or even September) would allow for the earlier adopters to buy the system first and build hype and media attention that can ride through the Christmas holiday season when shipments 2 and 3 are larger and all the possible bugs are worked out of the online system and everything is smoothed out.  Then the casual and late adopters get in on the action for the big holiday season. 

Sure Nintendo needs some Wii games for this year, and they will come out...but honestly, 3rd parties are either moving projects now to the Wii U or ignoring the Wii and just releasing 360 and PS3 games.  Nintendo can't have enough games to fill the gap for basically another full year of Wii.  They are in the middle of crucial year of game development for the 3DS and launching a new system which needs great state of the art launch games. 

I just think Nintendo will be hurt more be becoming even  more irrelevent as this year goes by, and developers are going to take note about how Nintendo handles this transition and will follow there lead...which has been so far...drop the Wii like the plague and prepare for the new, or in developers cases the currently popular.

I agree in the thought that Nintendo should launch Fall 2012 or sooner if possible.
 Early Launch benefits are
+taking care of the Fanboys and Early Adopters
+Initial wave of first tun production out the door
+word of mouth HYPE building for Xmas season
+Batch of initial launch games out the door including all the inevitable PS360 up-ports
+Second batch of software to continue the HYPE comes out at Xmas
+Xmas builds on already established userbase which looks extra good to 3rd parties
+A solid test base to release the first OS/Online patch after early launch months before Xmas
+After initial launch, putting out a 2 player uMote game with second uMote around XMas will generate lots of Hype and push early adopters to return to the store for more
+PS Vita will never have a chance to get it's feet under it as it's crushed by Wii U from E3 on.
+Did I mention getting the majority of those "late" PS360 ports out of the way?
+Launching months before XMas means the Wii U could effectively have 2 launches in 2012.
(1 in the late summer/early fall <Aug. launch?> and the other starting at Black Friday)

Pair that up with a back to school Wii U NFC McD/BK Wii U promotion using NFC toys for the kids and NFC cards for the teens/manchilds and Nintendo is well on their way to another record setting launch if handled correctly.

[Chozo Ghost]

It needs to get out as quickly as possible because the Wii is dead as a door knob and it looks bad for Nintendo that their current console is lifeless and they have nothing else going on outside of portables. As soon as the Wii U is launched Nintendo can literally kick the Wii to the curb, just as they've already metaphorically kicked it to the curb a couple years ago and then everyone can forget about it.

[Spak-Spang]

BnM:  You basically restated my points just much better.  I totally agree.  Sooner is better...and with those PS3 and Xbox 360 ports out at launch the WiiU could have a nice launch lineup.

Pikmin,
One other nintendo launched game.

Then November Nintendo can release Super Mario WiiU with 2nd WiiU mote.  It can be a premium priced game with the add on $69.99-74.99...but it would be well worth it for the add on and multiplayer Mario action.  Better yet if it was a Zelda and Link adventures, 4 Swords style game, that allowed for Zelda and Link to play together on an adventure.  (Best date game ever) 

Anyway, if the final development kit is out now and it includes the final boost in power...then it is completely plausible for a 6 month production schedule to gear up for an August/Septenber launch.  With the next 3 months creating a units for the November markets. 

If Nintendo is going to have multiplayer 2 person Wiimotes...which I think is likely.  They need to get the user base installed for that ASAP.  And with players already having Wiimote plus out...this could be a fairly cheap console for controllers.  Most people will already have 4 nunchuks, 4 wiimote pluses, a Wiifit, a WiiU tablet packed in the console...and if one came with a big game like Mario a second.

[TJ Spyke]

the Wii is dead as a door knob

Except it is still selling pretty well.

[Chozo Ghost]

the Wii is dead as a door knob

Except it is still selling pretty well.

Yes, but in terms of software releases its dead.

[Luigi Dude]

Yes, but in terms of software releases its dead.

Nintendo's first party games have long legs and continue to sell quite well.  Mario Kart Wii, New Super Mario Bros Wii and Wii Sports Resort are monsters that continue to sell.  Hell, when they lowered the price of Mario Galaxy 1 it quickly sold another 1 million copies this last holiday and has now crossed the 10 million mark.  Which goes to show the Wii itself can continue on just it's backlog of older games alone.

[Chozo Ghost]

I know the Wii has been moving along solely on the inertia of its existing library for years now, and that's only a good thing for Nintendo because it means they can rake in money without creating new games. But how is that a good thing from the perspective of fans? For new Wii owners, sure, there's a backlog of games to keep them entertained for awhile, but what about those who have had the Wii for a long time and played all there is to play? What else is there for us to look forward to?

That said, here is what I am predicting Reggie is going to unveil for the Wii at E3:

- Production on the regular Wii model will cease, and the gimped GC-less horizontal only model will be exclusively produced from here on out.

- The MSRP of the Wii will be dropped to $99.99 and there it will remain for the remainder of its life. This will match it with the price of the PS2 which is also still in production and selling steadily.

- Just as Sony with the PS2, Nintendo will continue to manufacture and sell the Wii for as long as people continue to buy it. This will probably be several years into the future.

- There may be one or two last hurrah games unveiled, but that will probably be it from Nintendo. They may also possibly release one or two more operation rainfall games, but if they do they would see a limited release with little or no marketing just like Xenoblade Chronicles.

- Possibly some new system colors.

- The Nintendo Selects budget lineup will be expanded to include more recent Wii hit titles, such as SMG2, NSMB, and DKCR, and eventually (not anytime soon) Zelda SS.

- 3rd parties will also continue to milk off the Wii's casual market with low budget low quality dance, fitness, carnival, etc. casual games. Whatever the final Wii game ends up being, it will probably end up being one of these.


That's about all I can predict happening with the Wii from here on out. Like I said, its not much for existing Wii owners to look forward to, but its still a cash cow that Nintendo can milk off of for the foreseeable future.

[lolmonade]

- The Nintendo Selects budget lineup will be expanded to include more recent Wii hit titles, such as SMG2, NSMB, and DKCR, and eventually (not anytime soon) Zelda SS.

I would disagree with this issue.  All are too recent (with the exception of Super Mario Galaxy) to have the Nintendo Selects $20.
 
I could see them doing one more run of Nintendo Selects Branding, maybe including Mario Party 8, DKCR, Kirby's Epic Yarn, and Super Mario Galaxy 2 once we get closer to Wii U launch, but I sincerely doubt they'll continue the Nintendo Selects price drops after Wii U, because they'll be focusing on getting rid of Wii game stock on store shelves to make room for Wii U.
 
I would expect them to heavily discount these games to $20-30 range to get them off shelves, but not to print more copies as Nintendo Selects.

[Mop it up]

NSMBWii was released in the same year as Punch-Out!!, and that's on the Nintendo Selects line. I don't think it's an issue of being too recent, but rather, NSMBWii is still selling fine at the $50 price point, so there's no reason to drop the price just yet.

I don't see why Nintendo wouldn't continue selling their popular Wii games after the Wii U launches. Some of the PS2's Greatest Hits games, such as Final Fantasy and GTA, are still in print today, and I don't think those games interfered with the PS3. The Wii U can play Wii games, and unlike the PS3 it will have no issues playing them or have the feature removed, so there's no reason why Nintendo wouldn't want to continue selling them for years after the Wii U launches.

[Shaymin]

They did end up removing Gamecube back-compat from the Wii, but that was about 2 years after everyone who cared bought a Wii... and the Wii is a bit more central to the WiiU's experience.

[Mop it up]

I know, but there's a big difference there: The Wii actually had some GameCube components in it that could be removed to save money. Plus, all GameCube games are long out of print, so Nintendo weren't selling GameCube games to anyone. Since the Wii U will use Wiimotes for Wii U games, and there are no physical ports for Wii stuff, there's nothing to remove from the Wii U to save on manufacturing costs.

[Chozo Ghost]

or have the feature removed,

Well, let's not forget the recent Wii revision which stripped out the GC compatibility. There may one day be a Wii U revision which strips out Wii compatibility, but it would probably be years off near the end of its lifespan and with the WiiU2 on the horizon. So its not something we need to worry about any time soon, but it could happen.

ETA: Sorry, I wrote that before reading the other posts.

[famicomplicated]

I worry for the day when the uMote+ comes out, clearer screen, better battery, better analogue sticks - $100 a pop!

Actually maybe I should delete this post, Nintendo might read it and get ideas.

*gulp*

[ThePerm]

idk, the wii being taken out of wii u seems less likely then gamecube being taken out of wii. Some games will require both wii u controller and wii mote. The system will be more powerful anyways, so it could always run wii software, even if it has to emulate I think the systems have relation to some degree so its going to be like running legacy dos programs on windows xp.

[Chozo Ghost]

There's another reason why companies provide backwards compatibility, and then later on take it away. Sure, it can often save on manufacturing costs when BC is removed, but another factor is that they want consumers to rebuy those old games on their download service.

I think that's why Sony never introduced software emulation of the PS2 on their PS3. Sure, the emotion chip cost money and taking it out helped reduce the enormous manufacturing costs of the PS3, but I don't buy that they couldn't do software emulation. The Xbox 360 does software emulation of the Xbox, so one would assume the more powerful PS3 should be able to emulate the much weaker PS2. Sony just didn't want to do it, because they want to make more money by selling HD remakes of games or PSN classics downloads. That's the real reason why it was taken out and then never added back.

Backwards compatibility does serve a useful purpose early on in a system's life, because it helps leverage the predecessor's software library to help migrate existing consumers over to the new hardware. But after a few years that purpose is achieved and then BC support shifts from being a benefit to being a problem.