Topic: Official Sales Thread

[Enner]

Now that the last big Wii U "System Seller" is done selling major units, anyone want to take a bet on how long Smash Bros. U will be relevant on the NPDs?

2 months in to the new year. Assuming Super Smash Bros for Wii U comes out this year.

[Nile Boogie Returns]

Now that the last big Wii U "System Seller" is done selling major units, anyone want to take a bet on how long Smash Bros. U will be relevant on the NPDs? 2 months? 3? I can't imagine it being more than that considering the huge Spring 2014 releases on the other consoles.  It might be boosted a bit by the NPDs combining the 3DS & Wii U SKUs by nature of having the same name.

     Considering that Mario Kart 8 came out in May, and Smash 4 is coming out at Christmas, my expectations are staggering. Expect another Smash Innovational around launch plus a marketing campaign worthy of the game meant to save the console (save your breath, its always been Smash).  The only thing I believe that could hurt Smash's chances is Smash ironically. Is there anybody on this board or in the free world for that matter who own WiiU and NOT a 3DS? Granted Smash has some of the highest replay value of any game but some may have their fill buy nov/dec and not see the need to double dip. This is also the reason I think there are still major secrets still to be found about the game.

[Adrock]

Releasing the 3DS version first helps the 3DS version more than it hurts the Wii U version, even though it still hurts the Wii U version. Playing multiplayer Super Smash Bros. is cheaper and easier on a home console. It also doesn't help that the exclusive 3DS mode, Smash Run, is local multiplayer only. That might fly in Japan, and then generally no where else in the world. Anyone who plays Super Smash Bros. semi-regularly will probably be waiting for the Wii U version.

[Ymeegod]

Depends on when Smash WII U is released.  Right now I'm content waiting a month or so for the WII U version but if Smash gets delayed until 2015 then I'm more than likely just cancelling my WII U preorder and buying the 3DS version.

[NWR_insanolord]

The Wii U version won't be pushed back. It can't be. Nintendo will do whatever they have to to get the game out by early December at the latest.

[Adrock]

Good. I took a week off in December so I don't forfeit my extra PTO by the end of the year. I'm still hoping for November though.

[Mop it up]

I've always felt that Mario Kart is a bigger system-seller than Smash Brothers, so if Mario Kart 8 doesn't move many units, I don't think Smash will be doing any better.

Everything sells at the holidays so we'll still see better Wii U numbers, but they'll probably still be on par with the system's previous two holidays and then drop right back down again.

[NWR_insanolord]

The combo of Mario Kart and Smash will move units. I think the Wii U will have a fairly decent holiday season this year, because Nintendo always does better in that time period, they've got a pretty good library at this point, and there really isn't much of anything pushing the PS4 and Xbox One this year.

[Mop it up]

A lack of games hasn't stopped the PS4 from selling 10 million units, why would it stop it this holiday?

[NWR_insanolord]

There's a limit to how many people are willing to buy a game system purely on potential. I'm sure the PS4 will do well, and probably the Xbone as well, but the Wii U will have the advantage of already having a really good game library.

[broodwars]

There's a limit to how many people are willing to buy a game system purely on potential. I'm sure the PS4 will do well, and probably the Xbone as well, but the Wii U will have the advantage of already having a really good game library.

You could have made the exact same post last November, and it didn't work out so well when Mario 3D World bombed.  Meanwhile, the PS4 & Xbone sold millions on less software than they'll have this time.

[NWR_insanolord]

Systems with no real software support are going to do much better right after launch than a year later. The people who'd buy a console in that state already have and probably won't do so again.   

[broodwars]

Systems with no real software support are going to do much better right after launch than a year later. The people who'd buy a console in that state already have and probably won't do so again.

And yet you think the Wii U, a system that's never had and never will have "real software support" is going to do well this Fall? I like Smash & all, but the Wii U is a dead man walking at this point. It's too far gone for even Smash to save now, and the 3DS version of Smash is doing it no favors.

[Adrock]

Wii U will do well compared to how it's been doing which if we're being honest, isn't that difficult to do. There will be enough total first party titles on Wii U where people can now look at it as a worthwhile purchase, with Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros. being the biggest draws. In May, there may have been people who were intrigued by Wii U because of Mario Kart 8 yet remained on the fence. The addition of Super Smash Bros. could be enough for them to make the jump, especially during the holiday season when people are willing to spend money on things. Nintendo could sell a few million units.

There are a couple caveats. Wii U "doing well" does not mean it will do better than PS4 even with a stronger lineup of games, nor does it mean it will "do well enough to consider this anything but a wasted generation for Nintendo." While this should be Wii U's best holiday season yet (and probably ever, even if Zelda comes out next year), it still won't be an especially great one in the grand scheme of things.

[Nile Boogie Returns]

     Super Smash Bros. Brawl is the Best selling fighting game of all time (12x platinum). Even if half of that was old people / soccer moms  caught up in the "Wii Hype" it would still be #1 or 2. Melee sold 6million + copies on a systems with LTD 20million install base.  I'm not expecting it to do the same but it can/will be the best selling game on the WiiU.


 Well maybe not, Mario Kart 8 is already over 2.5m worldwide and should hit 4m by years end.

[NWR_insanolord]

Systems with no real software support are going to do much better right after launch than a year later. The people who'd buy a console in that state already have and probably won't do so again.

And yet you think the Wii U, a system that's never had and never will have "real software support" is going to do well this Fall? I like Smash & all, but the Wii U is a dead man walking at this point. It's too far gone for even Smash to save now, and the 3DS version of Smash is doing it no favors.

I'm saying Wii U has a very good lineup of games to play RIGHT NOW, which Sony and Microsoft don't. Smash Bros. will tip a lot of people over the edge who'd been tempted by a lot of the other stuff that's already there. Long term Wii U's fucked, and probably won't beat out its competition in this holiday season. Adrock gets what I'm saying.

[Luigi Dude]

Last year the Wii U managed to sell over 700k in North America during the holiday season and another 400k in Japan during that same time, and that was with just 3D World and the NSMBU bundle.  This year, even before Mario Kart was released, Wii U sales in North America and Europe have been up every single month compared to last year, and even in Japan the sales aren't that far behind what they were last year.

Seriously, the combination of Smash Bros and Mario Kart this holiday combined with the fact Wii U sales have naturally been up compared to last year in America and Europe should be able to push over 2-3 million units this holiday season worldwide.  Considering Nintendo themselves only set Wii U shipment goals in the 3 million range for the entire fiscal year, I'd say they'd consider that a pretty good holiday season.

[Ceric]

On face value would it really be that surprising for the WiiU to have a better Fall than PS4 and XBox One?  Say what you will but there is not a really compelling argument to be made to upgrade from a PS3 or a 360 compared to a Wii to Wii U.  I figured by now the PS4 and X-Box One would have more of an exclusive to their Gen lineup.

[Nile Boogie Returns]

     Whats the big Holiday title for PS4/1? There may not be one definitive title just a lot of solid support. Halo, GTA are just remakes, albeit very fine titles in that. Lord of the fallen and Middle Earth could be very solid titles indeed but they don't completely differ (on the surface) from Hyrule Warriors and Bayonetta 2. Without going tit for tat, it appears this could be a most interesting choice for the holiday gamer.




 I actually have the opposite problem. I need a new Blu-Ray player and I'm debating on PS4/1. I don't/ can't play FPS so thats not a factor in my purchase. My kids want a 4 and thats more than likely what well get but I am a Gears of War fan, I got my 360 for that game alone and never regretted it. I'm going to get Gears for whenever it comes so I might as well get the ONE anyway... (I'll end up buying both and playing neither like always)






ALSO SHOVEL KNIGHT ISN"T ON THOSE CONSOLES SO THEY ARE DQ'd

[Ian Sane]

The Wii U has been out long enough that's accumulated enough decent games (all first party of course) that if I bought one this Christmas I would have a good amount of games to play.  Though it probably wouldn't take more than a year to catch up and be stuck waiting months at a time for anything half decent to come out.  The PS4 may sell on potential but the Wii U's future is set in stone.  It has effectively no third party support and will offer nothing but first party releases that will be released at a snail's pace.  That's not worthless by any means but is it worth the price that Wii U's are currently sold at?  I'm not going to go for that unless the price drops into "eh, why not?" territory.

SSB will not turn things around.  Anyone who thinks things ever will or even can turn around for the Wii U is delusional.  It's been over for a while.  Nothing will be the Wii U's saviour.  The best you can hope for is if a game can sell well enough to keep it limping along for a few more years.

I think the PS4 will outsell the Wii U this Christmas even with the Wii U having a currently better lineup.  And the reason for that is simple: the Wii U is a **** brand while the PS4 is hip.  The reputation alone will probably give the PS4 the edge.

[Nile Boogie Returns]

The Wii U has been out long enough that's accumulated enough decent games (all first party of course) that if I bought one this Christmas I would have a good amount of games to play.  Though it probably wouldn't take more than a year to catch up and be stuck waiting months at a time for anything half decent to come out.  The PS4 may sell on potential but the Wii U's future is set in stone.  It has effectively no third party support and will offer nothing but first party releases that will be released at a snail's pace.  That's not worthless by any means but is it worth the price that Wii U's are currently sold at?  I'm not going to go for that unless the price drops into "eh, why not?" territory.

SSB will not turn things around.  Anyone who thinks things ever will or even can turn around for the Wii U is delusional.  It's been over for a while.  Nothing will be the Wii U's saviour.  The best you can hope for is if a game can sell well enough to keep it limping along for a few more years.

I think the PS4 will outsell the Wii U this Christmas even with the Wii U having a currently better lineup.  And the reason for that is simple: the Wii U is a **** brand while the PS4 is hip.  The reputation alone will probably give the PS4 the edge.

So whats you position on XboxOne? Its in worse position than WiiU and the gap is widening by the month? And did you see WiiU's 2015's Lineup? IT IS OUTSTANDING! Not to mention the stuff we don't know about. Should you try and be more objective in your assessment, you may find things aren't quite as bad as you think.

[Ian Sane]

The Wii U has been out long enough that's accumulated enough decent games (all first party of course) that if I bought one this Christmas I would have a good amount of games to play.  Though it probably wouldn't take more than a year to catch up and be stuck waiting months at a time for anything half decent to come out.  The PS4 may sell on potential but the Wii U's future is set in stone.  It has effectively no third party support and will offer nothing but first party releases that will be released at a snail's pace.  That's not worthless by any means but is it worth the price that Wii U's are currently sold at?  I'm not going to go for that unless the price drops into "eh, why not?" territory.

SSB will not turn things around.  Anyone who thinks things ever will or even can turn around for the Wii U is delusional.  It's been over for a while.  Nothing will be the Wii U's saviour.  The best you can hope for is if a game can sell well enough to keep it limping along for a few more years.

I think the PS4 will outsell the Wii U this Christmas even with the Wii U having a currently better lineup.  And the reason for that is simple: the Wii U is a **** brand while the PS4 is hip.  The reputation alone will probably give the PS4 the edge.

So whats you position on XboxOne? Its in worse position than WiiU and the gap is widening by the month? And did you see WiiU's 2015's Lineup? IT IS OUTSTANDING! Not to mention the stuff we don't know about. Should you try and be more objective in your assessment, you may find things aren't quite as bad as you think.

The Wii U's 2015 lineup is outstanding... for a console with no third party support.  But there will be N64 style gaps in the release schedule.  The Wii U experience will be constantly waiting around for Nintendo to release a new game.  The sales won't increase enough to get third parties back and even if it did by the time it could PS360 development will be less common and the Wii U will get excluded for hardware reasons.  A port of a PS360 version is one thing but I don't expect anyone to make a special Wii U-only version.  They hardly ever did that for the Wii and that console sold better than anything.

The Xbox One could end up like the PS3.  The PS3 was a joke when it came out because it was too expensive but it was similar enough in hardware to the Xbox 360 that it got included in multiplatform development.  When the PS3 became affordable it took off because it had a healthy third party lineup and all the major games were including it as a platform.  The Xbox One is getting the ports so it's going to build up a decent lineup even as it struggles.  The one difference is that Sony's first party offerings on the PS3 were fantastic so that gave it some uniqueness.  The Xbox One might not do as well since it won't have as strong of a first party lineup and a console that's just an inferior PS4 is a harder sell.

[Ceric]

Don't forget about the PS3 Media features.  Those definitely helped.

[Nile Boogie Returns]

I'm looking at the whole of the next 18months and I'm failing to see where the WiiU can't measure up.


Eshop vs XBLA = PUSH


Nintendo wins 1st party


Xbox slaughters them in 3rd party support.


To quote Qui Gon Jin "your focus determines your reality."  I guess it all depends on why your into or what you believe.

[Soren]

FYI the big holiday title for PS4/XB1 is Call of Duty.