Topic: Official Sales Thread

[IceCold]

Quote
DQM:J was a virtual sell out as of last weeks chart and S-E was not able to manufacture more for about a week. So no DQM:J on this weeks chart but will be available for sale this week and will show up on next weeks chart. Its very similar to what happened with FFIII. They underestimated demand

What the hell is wrong with Square? First, they told Nintendo they wanted to publish FFIII themselves, because they obviously knew it was going to sell well. They even told Nintendo to get enough DS units available at launch. Then they screwed it up horribly, and because of the shortage people lost interest in it. It sold way less than it could have.

I mean, how can you underestimate the sales of a Dragon Quest game (spinoff or not) on the DS of all systems, and in Japan of all places? You'd think they would learn..

[BlackNMild2k1]

Hardware #'s:
DSL 127,647
Wii 86,395
PSP 37,032
PS3 21,105
PS2 20,169
Xbox360 7,041
GBM 1,864
GBASP 1,498
GC 554
DS 123
GBA 94

Wii > PSP+PS2+PS3

and PS3 doesn't even have a single game in the Top 50. I never expected it to be this bad...

[jasonditz]

Where are they still finding original model GBAs to sell?

[Luigi Dude]

This is the reason why I said with full confidence when the Wii launched in Japan that Nintendo had retaken the Japanese home market.  The PS3 is just way to expensive for the average Japanese person to buy and has nothing in it's schedule that will make people want to buy the system until Final Fantasy XIII comes out.  And that wont be out until 2008.  

By that time the Wii should have at least a 5-10 million system advantage in Japan and a majority of Japanese third party support locked up.  

I'm going to say it right now, the PS3 will not break the 5 million mark in Japan.  Mark my words.

[Kairon]

Nintendo's said they're increasing the manufacturing numbers to a million a month or more come April...

If Nintendo hits 6 million "manufactured" by March 31, then goes on with this new manufacturing plan... they could have 18 million consoles manufactured by March '08, just 3 or 4 million away from the GC's worldwide total!

Also, assuming they sell every one of those manufactured items... (that's a definite IF of course) that means that in 14 months they might be tied or even edging past the X360!

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[Kairon]

Quote
Originally posted by: Luigi Dude
I'm going to say it right now, the PS3 will not break the 5 million mark in Japan.  Mark my words.

I say it'll put up a better fight than that. 8.5 million.

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[willie1234]

they need to do a lot more than a million per month if they want to do ~80 mil over a 5 year lifespan.

[Kairon]

I don't think the Wii will do 80 mil worldwide in 5 years. I think right now the most optimistic projections for the Wii is more around 40 - 45 million worldwide. A three-way tie with no clear winner is looking more and more likely.

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[GoldenPhoenix]

Quote
Originally posted by: Kairon
I don't think the Wii will do 80 mil worldwide in 5 years. I think right now the most optimistic projections for the Wii is more around 40 - 45 million worldwide. A three-way tie with no clear winner is looking more and more likely.

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

I really do not think we will see a 3 Way tie, I don't think the game industry would support that. In fact I doubt there will be a two way tie but it is more likely than a 3 way. Personally I think the Wii's price point will put it out ahead of both Xbox 360 and PS3 with Xbox 360 coming in at second.

[willie1234]

well obviously if that's all they produce then that'll be the outcome...but the demand looks to be high, why couldn't it go out in front as the #1?

[couchmonkey]

Quote
Originally posted by: Kairon
I don't think the Wii will do 80 mil worldwide in 5 years. I think right now the most optimistic projections for the Wii is more around 40 - 45 million worldwide. A three-way tie with no clear winner is looking more and more likely.

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

That depends on whose projections you're talking about and how you define "optimistic".  My most optimistic prediction is 150 million for Wii.  The machine is definitely expanding the market (see Wii Sports and Wii Play in the Japanese top 5 basically every week since launch) therefore it has the potential to be the best-selling system of all time.

Of course, that's being very optimisitic, I think a more realistic prediction is somewhere in the 40-80 million range (that's a very wide range because, hey, we're all just guessing here).  Also, I'm no professional, but when it comes to predicting console wars just a few months in, one person's guess is as good as another's.  Actually, I know one person who predicted PS2 v. GameCube v. Xbox pretty nicely.  He was NOT an analyst, but someone's bound to guess right, no?

On the subject of producing 1 million per month, don't forget that we're talking about the first year of the system's lifespan here - it could sell a lot more after the price drops and key disruptive software is added to the market.  See DS.  

[Ceric]

OK,  I think in its lifetime the PS3 will sell over 15 Million IF Sony sticks to the original lifecycle, if memory serves they want the system to last ~10 years.

On the Wii side I really don't know but I don't expect the Wii to actually have a full 5 year lifespan.  I personally figure that 3-4 years at most.  By that time Nintendo will have a good idea of peoples reaction to the whole system and it's experimentation.  At that point they'll release a system that addresses the major complaints.  This system will be up to what Nintendo believes to be the proper specs to run "True HD" content, think actual 1080p with "ease", just sort of leapfroging the intermediate step.  This System will use the same basic architecture of the Cube and Wii but, will lose GCN backward compatibilty in favor of more uniformed access.  This support will be replaced by Gamecube games being available through the VC.  SD cards will still be the prefer external memory.  The internal memory will be flash based, or similar technology, but be in the double if not triple digits, depends on advancement.  The Media will be optical based unless better/cheaper has come along, possibility dual format with Flash based Carts and Optical co-existing.  In turn the disc will be proportietary in nature and be a knock-off of a popular standard.  Unfortunately though the enhancements will mean that the system will still take the same amount of power.  Also Nintendo will be only releasing a Revision of the Wiimote.  In fact more then likely they will keep compatibility with Wiimotes and accessories.  This product will in turn have a long lifecycle, ~6-8 years if not more.

[Smash_Brother]

Quote
Originally posted by: GoldenPhoenix
I really do not think we will see a 3 Way tie, I don't think the game industry would support that. In fact I doubt there will be a two way tie but it is more likely than a 3 way. Personally I think the Wii's price point will put it out ahead of both Xbox 360 and PS3 with Xbox 360 coming in at second.

I think the Wii has it. Not only do I think the Wii has it, but I think it has it by leaps and bounds.

The PS2 sold 120 million units in its lifetime and was a console which did nothing to expand the market.

Personally, I believe the Wii will, in fact, be able to beat those numbers, especially if some 3rd party devs can drop some killer titles which push the concept to its limits.

It also depends on Nintendo's manufacturing. They NEED new factories and need them badly. The Wii will need more than a million a month if it's going to keep up with worldwide demand.

[jasonditz]

Its hard to predict far into the future, maybe in another 3-4 years 1080p will be commonplace and affordable PS3s with ungodly beautiful epic games will be all the rage. Maybe the Wii will never get its Nintendogs or Brain Age... maybe Microsoft will finally crack the Japanese market.

[GoldenPhoenix]

Quote
Originally posted by: jasonditz
Its hard to predict far into the future, maybe in another 3-4 years 1080p will be commonplace and affordable PS3s with ungodly beautiful epic games will be all the rage. Maybe the Wii will never get its Nintendogs or Brain Age... maybe Microsoft will finally crack the Japanese market.

Too bad that by that time the PS3, Xbox 360 and the Wii will left in the dust when it comes to visuals when compared to the PC!

[Dirk Temporo]

I lol'd at 150 million. No way. PS2 barely broke 100 million, even if Sony's claims are to be believed.

[Luigi Dude]

Well considering the PS2 was a horribly made system that broke way too easily, I wouldn't be surprised if alot of Sony's sales came from people having to buy a second or even a third PS2 because their old ones kept braking.

Hell I bet the amount of people that actually bought a PS2 is only around 70 - 80 million.

[utarefsoN]

i know someone who is on their 5th ps2 in seven years....i kid you not.

[BranDonk Kong]

I've had 2 PS2s. I also had 3 Dreamcasts. Yes, 3. All at different times, not because of hardware problems, I just felt like getting rid of it and then regretted it later on...twice. Now I can just use Chankast and DCEmul instead.

[couchmonkey]

Quote
Originally posted by: Dirk Temporo
I lol'd at 150 million. No way. PS2 barely broke 100 million, even if Sony's claims are to be believed.

Well, like I said, it's my most optimistic guess.  The dream is that Nintendo expands the market to the point where non-gamers outnumber existing gamers.  Even if PS2 is so unreliable that only 70 million are actually in circulation right now, all it takes is 80 million non-gamers to make up for that.  That's an uphill battle, but at the same time if you think of it in terms of just how many people don't buy game systems, it doesn't seem like so much.

[BlackNMild2k1]

Quote
Originally posted by: Luigi Dude
Hell I bet the amount of people that actually bought a PS2 is only around 70 - 80 million.

I would actually guess that the actual # of actual people that bought a PS2 is closer to 50 million once you factor in that some people bought second or third systems for different a room or to get the "new" model & some where replacement systems(stories of people on 2nd - 5th systems) to either replace a previously sold unit or one that was defective.

[Kairon]

But then we'd have to re-evaluate the GB, GBA and DS numbers.

I'm content to leave Sony's 100 million consoles shipped number alone. It's objective, and I have no problem with giving Sony some (but not all) of the credit for their own success.

You guys are starting to convince me that the Wii will win... at 50+ million units worldwide... especially looking at the Japanese sales charts.

The question now is whether Nintendo will get aggressive with marketting, pricing, manufacturing, and non-game development (in the Wii Sports, Brain Academy and AC vein) in order to not only capture, but fully explode into the new market of gamers they've opened up.

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[MaryJane]

It's a good thing, but also a bad thing, but I think Nintendo's best marketing is going to come by word of mouth and free press. I don't even watch commercials (ALL HAIL TIVO!!) but I notice twice as many GaayS3 commercials as I do Wii ones.

Yet the Wii continues to excel, much like how when I actually notice a DS commercial while fast forwarding I'll go back and watch it just because I see them on such rare occasions, and yet the GaaySP is on the boob tube non-stop, even the DS is trouncing it at every turn.

It's almost like Nintendo thinks their console is good enough to sell itself... oh wait, it kind of is. Although they should be pushing it more, especially games, when it comes to marketing.

[couchmonkey]

I've seen just one Wii commercial in all this time.  Actually, I think Nintendo is okay for marketing at this point - Wii is sold out all the time and the price has been sitting steady at about $340 on Ebay for about three weeks now.  Save the money for when supply catches up.

I keep trying to check myself, to figure out what it is I'm missing - some big strategy change that will make 360 or PS3 hugely popular, some stupid mistake on Nintendo's part - but so far, I just don't see anything but good news for Wii.  As long as Nintendo keeps pumping out games that appeal to the target audience, I see no reason for it to fail.

[Kairon]

I think what we're not seeing right now is that the X360 and the PS3 will become much more competitive in the future.

The X360 has some MAJOR titles in the pipes for 2007 2008 which, though they may be more hardcore stuff, are VERY epic, VERY impressive. I anticipate that not only Halo 3, but also Alan Wake, Mass Effect, and others will be landmark hardcore hits. (this is viewing things objectively without the bald space marine bias applied)

The PS3 will also inspire third parties to sell their souls to bleeding edge tech, and Naughty Dog's next game could be potentially AMAZING if it pulls off its promise. And of course, FFXIII will be a HUGE achievement and definitely a system seller, as will MGS 4. And we've yet to see what happens when God of War 3 or the next David Jaffe game lands on that monster, or how amazing Heavenly Sword or Lair will be to see in motion. PS3 will be playing catch-up, but there's no question that they've got a slate of really ambitious projects that promise to impress almost ANY observer.

And of course, you've got the X360/PS3 games that won't appear on the Wii: BioShock, and Oblivion for starters. Also, the Wii as of yet has no announced plans for Guitar Heroes (amazing game) or DDR (NO DDR ARE THEY CRAZY?!?!?!). AND until Nintendo does something on the karaoke front, Signstar will be the PS3's seller in Europe and the X360 has Karaoke Revolution, I believe.

I see plenty of competition for the Wii out in the distance. This is why one of my lingering worries is the Wii's software lineup in fall 2007 (are ANY third party games slated for Fall '07?!?!?! Will Fall '07 be bombarded by non-games and third party "kiddie" titles like Sims Wii and Harvest Moon?!?!?) and ESPECIALLY into 2008.

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com