Flash back to SW2K1 for a moment. Before Wind Waker was unveiled, Nintendo fans around the world believed that the tech demo featuring the ultra-realistic Link and Gannondorf duking it out would be the graphical style for the next LoZ game.
Then, economically speaking, Nintendo made one of the biggest mistakes I've ever seen a company make: convince thousands (likely millions) of players who were interested in buying their console to not buy it. IGN reported that, on the day of WW's unveiling, the greatest shift of players from the GC forums to the Xbox and PS2 forums occurred, with the inquiries about the PS2 and Xbox from posters who had formerly remained on the Nintendo forums doubling and tripling.
IGN is one case of this, but I have no reason to doubt that similar trends were occurring everywhere.
Now, before you get upset about me bashing WW, know that this is not what I'm here to do. I loved WW (though I'll eat my pants if Twilight Princess doesn't outsell it...), I'm only pointing out how much of an effect you can have on your market before your potential customer base has been solidified in its buying decision (ie before your and your competition's products have been released).
Flash forward to the present time.
Nintendo has rented the Kodak Theater for their pre-E3 press release (
a picture, if you're curious). Obviously, they're making a big deal about the Rev and everything that comes with it, but no one rents this theater without due cause (it doesn't come cheap).
Prior to their merger with Namco, Nintendo owned a large stake in Bandai. They also owned shares of Namco. The simple bit of speculation I'm offering here is this: what would happen if Nintendo announced that, with a new controlling interest in Bandai/Namco, all next-gen and handheld games from the gaming giant are now Rev/DS exclusive? That includes Tekken, Soul Caliber, Tales, ALL of Shonin Jump and Gundam (there are many more, but those are just some of the biggest titles worth mentioning).
One might argue that it would be detrimental to Bandai/Namco if all their games were restricted to Nintendo hardware and it would...were we not in the middle of a generation change. That's the beauty of the situation: when Nintendo dropped its bomb about Wind Waker, no one had yet been locked into buying a GC so it was a terrible idea to give them incentive not to (I don't care if you liked WW or not, if you can't understand why the game would be a turnoff to the average gamer, I'm not going to try to convince you. Bottom line is that Nintendo could have used their money and money is still money, even from graphics-whores).
They could turn the same situation into their biggest blow to the PS3: revealing that a number of titles which some would have seen as a reason to BUY a PS3 into Rev exclusives, effectively changing the mind of potential buyers and convincing them to buy a Rev. The PS2 didn't win this past generation because it was better hardware or had better exclusives: it won because it was the game console for someone who wanted anything. RPGs? PS2. Sports? PS2. Action? PS2. Adventure? PS2. etc. etc. There were exclusives on the GC and Xbox which made them worth owning, but no one can deny that the PS2 won and won big by simply having the
biggest game library.
Right now, Sony is going to do everything they can to push Blu-Ray (Sony's proprietary media format) into the average household. This means that support for the PS2 is probably going to be nearly nonexistent, as every game released for the PS2 instead of the PS3 is one more reason not to bring Blu-Ray into your home. The first round of PS2 games were actually PS1 games which were moved over to the PS2 in the interest of not releasing their game on a fading console. The point is, in this next round of console releases, everything resets back to zero. Releasing games on the PS2 because it has the largest userbase is no longer an issue (and like I said, Sony will do everything it can to push Blu-Ray, just like it is for UMD, and that means pushing all would-be PS2 launches to the PS3).
I know Nintendo has stated something along the lines of not being "in competition" with Sony and MS. Anyone with a simple grasp of economics knows this is impossible. Simply put, when you're competing for the money of your customers, you're competing with EVERY POTENTIAL ALTERNATIVE. Videogames are competing for the money of their customer against any and every possible alternative which their potential buyers might spend their money on: movies, music, cars, drugs, sex, etc. This defeatist attitude of "no competition" is either admission of defeat or it's a facade. I'd like to believe it's the latter. I'd like to believe that Nintendo doesn't feel it's only worthy of patronage when its would-be customers happen to have enough left over in their entertainment budgets for a Revolution game.
So yeah, it's all speculation, but in my defense, I'm speculating based on the facts which are already plain to us.
Nintendo didn't buy stock in Bandai without an intention to make use of that control. Why would they? If it's money return they want, they could invest that money in new companies like they've been doing all along and chance upon the next "Pokemon". I'm sure there's a very good reason they chose to invest in Bandai, I just think it would be great if this was it.
The announcement that many popular franchises previously thought to be PS3 exclusive will instead be Rev exclusive is damaging, but it's 100x more damaging when that announcement is made
before anyone has actually made a purchasing decision regarding the PS3 or Rev. It would be identical to the WW announcement, except that it would be beneficial to Nintendo and a detriment to Sony and MS.
It's not going to happen: it's too good to be true. However, I maintain that it would likely be the most incredible move Nintendo could make when it comes to securing 3rd party support for the console and convincing potential buyers that the Rev will be the best choice when it comes time to spend their hard earned $$$.
-SB
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