Topic: Official Sales Thread

[NWR_pap64]

I think they're useful for serious sales discussions, but not as definitive proof. They're more like circumstantial, or speculative, evidence.

If we are talking about speculation, here's how I see the numbers...

If VGchartz places the game as a high sales number then there's the chance that the game really did sell well. If the game places low on the charts then it truly is doing poorly.

I mean, who are we to argue that RE 5 is number one on the VGchartz best selling list?  The numbers might be speculation but considering the hype I doubt anyone would say that they are wrong in placing RE 5 as the number one selling game.

[GoldenPhoenix]

One handy thing about VGchartz is that since they do adjust their numbers it is a GREAT resource for LTD sales for older games. Like if you look up RE4 for GC chances are it is spot on.

[Kairon]

The great thing about VGChartz is that they're just so open about their estimates, and they have an entire range of them. With official sources you've got extended dry periods. At least VGChartz gives you a constant flow of data to base speculation on, even if it is not official.

[NWR_pap64]

Can anyone look for the official NPD numbers and compare them to the VGchartz numbers?

I know the NPD places Wii Music as a million seller, and at the time this was announced the game had sold a million according to VGchartz.

Another example is when THQ announced that de Blob had become a hit, and the numbers placed it at more than 500 K.

[GoldenPhoenix]

Can anyone look for the official NPD numbers and compare them to the VGchartz numbers?

I know the NPD places Wii Music as a million seller, and at the time this was announced the game had sold a million according to VGchartz.

Another example is when THQ announced that de Blob had become a hit, and the numbers placed it at more than 500 K.

That is what I'm going to do. Come the end of March I'm going to take their top 20 games and their estimates, then compare it to the final NPD for that month.

[NWR_pap64]

I think the doubt comes from non charting games.

I mean, if VGchartz says that Wii Fit is a seller for the month of March who are we to say that's not true? Wii Fit IS a massive seller and always tops the official and un-official data.

Its the slow selling games that create the most confusion and doubt. Since the NPD doesn't track the sales of those games we are left wondering if X game did well or not. This is where VGchartz shine because they do track the slow selling games.

The only concrete proof that these sleeper hit games did well is if the company confirms it or we get a sequel.

For example...

Everyone believed that Boom Blox had NOT sold as well as expected. But then EA confirmed that it was a decent hit and now we are getting a sequel. Why would a company bother creating a sequel to a game that didn't sell at all?

Another example of "House of the dead 2 and 3 return". No one knew how well it sold until "Overkill" was announced. So again, I doubt we would have gotten an exclusive sequel if the port didn't sell that well.

[GoldenPhoenix]

Everyone believed that Boom Blox had NOT sold as well as expected. But then EA confirmed that it was a decent hit and now we are getting a sequel. Why would a company bother creating a sequel to a game that didn't sell at all?

That is one game where VGchartz had it tracking with low, but steady sales. Also the same applies to de Blob as you stated. Both games they were the first known source that showed they were selling steadily even if the sales were not tremendously high each month.

[NWR_pap64]

I think many gamers believe that simply because a game didn't make it to the top 20 it means it isn't selling at all. This is the issue with "Overkill". The VGchartz number place it passing 100K sold. Yet the other numbers say it only sold 50 K for the month. This is where the doubt and confusion begin.

Time and time again it has been proven that games DO sell and have long legs. What I find so funny is that people keep falling for the same trap over and over again.

First a game didn't chart, they declare it a flop. Then months pass and the company declare it a hit, and people are shocked. Finally the numbers come out and its confirmed to be a hit. Wait for the next game for the cycle to start again.

Oh yes, VGchartz places "World at War" at 600 K copies sold. This was confirmed by the number of players that logged on to play online. The online numbers place it at 500 K, which comes close to what VGchartz has said.

[TJ Spyke]

Its the slow selling games that create the most confusion and doubt. Since the NPD doesn't track the sales of those games we are left wondering if X game did well or not. This is where VGchartz shine because they do track the slow selling games.

Actually, NPD tracks every sale (hell, I think the January 2009 data even had 1 Dreamcast game in it, selling 1 copy). Their whole business plan are tracking data for companies though, so they only give out the top 20 to the public (and those are rounded to the nearest thousand). NPD subscribers get every game, even broken down into SKU's (i.e. how many copies each version of Halo 3 sold). They even break down sales for different colors of systems, so you could see which color DS Lite is the best selling.

[NWR_pap64]

Huh, I didn't know that.

What I meant, though, is that most sites only focus on the top 20 games, creating the confusion about the sales of other games.

Does the NPD have a site?

[TJ Spyke]

www.npd.com

They don't just track video games though. They do automotive stuff, beauty products, toys, etc.

[BlackNMild2k1]

Pap, you have it all wrong. NPD tracks more than games, but they track all the games that hit retail shelves.
NPD sells this information to their clients, made of sales analyst & other such companies that want to pay X amount of $ for the info.
NPD also Officially releases TOP 10's exclusively to NeoGAF every month as a courtesy for not posting the entire leaked NPD confidential report to the internet. -NPD was trying to plug its leaks, no need to pay for the info if you can find it for free on the internet-

Just because the whole NPD doesn't get posted on NeoGAF anymore doesn't mean that who ever was leaking it doesn't still have access to it.
IOI or whoever is running VGChartz now, probably knows one of the dozens or hundreds of people out there that have access to this info and are still willing to share it.

The numbers from VGChartz that needs to be tracked & posted are the ones that come out weeks & days before the official numbers.
They have constantly posted "up-to-date" numbers during a tracking period only to "adjust" those numbers after the official count came out.

If you check their numbers for past weeks all the way up to current, I have no doubt that what you will be looking at will be as accurate as any other tracking service, but those are not what is being questioned.

& for the record, being 100k off is not very close. (unless we were speaking in the millions)
If I were selling you a house, & you absolutely loved it, asked how much it would cost, & i repled with "$500k"
then when it was time to sign the paperwork and now the house really cost $600k, I can guarantee that you are not gonna reply back with
"That comes close to what you said".

But either way, that's enough about VGChartz. I'm anticipating GP's results from her observations as I haven't even looked at VGChartz in atleast 2 years.

edit: slightly beaten

[Kairon]

I think one high profile inconsistency is VGChartz's tracking of Z&W. If you look at Z&W now, VGChartz has adjusted their numbers closer to the leaked NPD LTD numbers. But look at the comments and you can see that VGChartz had Z&W over 100k at the end of November 2007 as per this (sarcastic) comment from VGChartz reader Nintendo Togepi:

Passed 100k

FLOP

The leaked NPD numbers put Z&W at 117k in the US market... at the end of 1/2009, 2 years after that comment was made.

You can also see several comments commenting how the game has passed the benchmarks of 300k or 400k. Towards the end of 2008, VGC was tracking it at over 500k, as you can see some comments celebrating. Now they have since adjusted the numbers downward to 360k, as posts in february show that VGC adjusted their numbers down a whopping 30% or more.

[NWR_pap64]

I think one high profile inconsistency is VGChartz's tracking of Z&W. If you look at Z&W now, VGChartz has adjusted their numbers closer to the leaked NPD LTD numbers. But look at the comments and you can see that VGChartz had Z&W over 100k at the end of November 2007 as per this (sarcastic) comment from VGChartz reader Nintendo Togepi:

Passed 100k

FLOP

The leaked NPD numbers put Z&W at 117k in the US market... at the end of 1/2009, 2 years after that comment was made.

You can also see several comments commenting how the game has passed the benchmarks of 300k or 400k. Towards the end of 2008, VGC was tracking it at over 500k, as you can see some comments celebrating. Now they have since adjusted the numbers downward to 360k, as posts in february show that VGC adjusted their numbers down a whopping 30% or more.

Yeah, the Z&W sales data is the  one that made a lot of people question VGchartz's numbers. But even Capcom doesn't know if to declare the game a flop or a hit. When Z&W came out Capcom said it was a moderate hit on the system. Recently a Capcom representative said the game didn't make any money at all, and now Capcom went back to saying it was a hit.

Its definitely confusing...

[GoldenPhoenix]

Isn't the Japanese tracking considered far more accurate then any in NA? It is too bad we don't get weekly sales like they do in Japan.

[BlackNMild2k1]

Yeah. They got 3 trackers: Media Create, Famitsu & Dengeki

Weekly sales and 1st week sales too. makes the need for guess work non-existent, but its also a much smaller & easier market to cover.

[Flames_of_chaos]

Isn't the Japanese tracking considered far more accurate then any in NA? It is too bad we don't get weekly sales like they do in Japan.

GP, you also have to take in consideration that Japan is much smaller compared to the US or North America in general so it's easier to track sales in Japan. Also while the NPD reports the sales in US and Canada, not every retailer provides their data to NPD which will always cause a variance. 

[KDR_11k]

What strikes me about the numbers is how badly the PS3 is doing with software, it's supposed to have the same userbase as the 360 but by the looks of it multiplatform games sell way better on the 360.

[Chozo Ghost]

The PS3 is the PSP of consoles.

[Mop it up]

The PlayStation 3 costs too much for its owners to be able to afford games for it. Plus, some people probably bought it as a Blu-ray player because Blu-ray is so cool with the invisible laser being blue and all.

[GoldenPhoenix]

The PlayStation 3 costs too much for its owners to be able to afford games for it. Plus, some people probably bought it as a Blu-ray player because Blu-ray is so cool with the invisible laser being blue and all.

I think you are right on, the PS3 is being bought more for it being a high quality Blu-ray player that is future proof and is competitively priced with stand alone units.

[TJ Spyke]

I know that is the primary reason I bought my PS3 last November. The only 2 games I won are the ones I bought the same day, both of which I regret buying (LittleBigPlanet and The Eye of Judgement). Works fine and I am happy with it. I prefer the Xbox 360 controller, so I get the Xbox 360 version of any multi-platform games I want.

[NWR_pap64]

The PlayStation 3 costs too much for its owners to be able to afford games for it. Plus, some people probably bought it as a Blu-ray player because Blu-ray is so cool with the invisible laser being blue and all.

I think you are right on, the PS3 is being bought more for it being a high quality Blu-ray player that is future proof and is competitively priced with stand alone units.

Definitely. In many DVD forums that I frequent to many recommend the PS3 "because it plays games", and even one of the Blu-Ray promos by Disney say that they can be played on your PS3 so it seems the main innovation of the PS3 is that its a Blu-Ray player that plays games.

A sad, sad thing...

[TJ Spyke]

I don't think Sony cares. I think they even said they didn't care if they lost the console race as long as it helped Blu-ray Disc become a success.

[GoldenPhoenix]

It is the same trap they fell into with PSP doing all this stuff, and oh, BTW, it plays games