Topic: Nintendo: Wii 2 Not Necessary for 2011

[NWR_Neal]

Nintendo of America President Reggie Fils-Aime believes the Wii has many more systems to sell.

http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/news/24446

The successor to the Wii is not a must for 2011, according to Nintendo of America President Reggie Fils-Aime in an interview with Kotaku.

"As we sit here today we're saying the Wii has many, many more units to sell," Fils-Aime said. "After we've reached an installed base of 45 million here in the U.S., we can have a conversation about the next generation."

According to the NPD Group, the Wii has currently sold a little more than 30 million units. If the system were to continue to sell as well as it has over the past four years, then it would likely reach 45 million units, at the earliest, in 2012.

[AV]

Reggie isn't stupid, his higher ups told him to say this. If Nintendo of Japan does not release a new console next year I bet investors would jump ship and the stock would fall.

[broodwars]

Reggie isn't stupid, his higher ups told him to say this. If Nintendo of Japan does not release a new console next year I bet investors would jump ship and the stock would fall.

This.  If Nintendo thinks they can coast through 2011 with just the 3DS...well, they're probably right, but I don't think investors are going to look kindly on seeing the Wii entering 2012 without even an announcement of its successor.  This is all just spin handed to Reggie by Nintendo of Japan.  There's no way we don't see an announcement of Wii 2 by E3 2011, though it probably won't release till 2012.

[NWR_Neal]

I'm more shaken by the "until we hit 45 million units, no news at all."

I don't know what the hell they have up their sleeve that will make this system last for two more years. And remember, that's two years of the same crazy-as-hell sales of the past four. Realistically, I think it might take three years to get to 45 million.

Of course, that's based on the premise that Reggie isn't full of crap.

[broodwars]

Of course, that's based on the premise that Reggie isn't full of crap.

Considering that Nintendo of America is little more than a puppet division of Nintendo of Japan, this is highly likely.  Either that, or Nintendo of Japan is severely underestimating Kinect and Move's potential to slow Wii sales.

[NWR_pap64]

Move: Not a chance. GameStops are still carrying the Move and sales have been slow (unless the Holiday rushes does wonders).


Kinect: Definitely. From what I heard and read, it is selling fine.


I'll be stunned if Nintendo doesn't announce at least plans for their next system.

[NWR_insanolord]

I expect some kind of announcement of the Wii 2 next year regardless of when it's going to be released.

Of course, that's based on the premise that Reggie isn't full of crap.

Considering that Nintendo of America is little more than a puppet division of Nintendo of Japan, this is highly likely.  Either that, or Nintendo of Japan is severely underestimating Kinect and Move's potential to slow Wii sales.

I think Reggie has enough respect from Iwata that he knows the truth; if what he said isn't true (and I certainly hope it's not), Reggie knows it. This goes with my argument from the other thread that Nintendo isn't going to say anything about the Wii successor until after the 3DS launch. You can't trust anything Nintendo says about the Wii 2 until at least E3.

[stevey]

If Nintendo of Japan does not release a new console next year I bet investors would jump ship and the stock would fall.

reverse fanboy goggles? Move's sales sucks and Kinect is the eyetoy 2.0. It's would be stupid for Nintendo to be the 1^st out to announce a new console especially with their allergies to top of the line specs. They don't need to compete with the ps360 with a new console and if they do announce early; it'll just gives Sony time to rip them off since they're not too anxious to kill the ps3 early after it's slow start with a minor upgrade or another $599 to bomb sales for years.

I'm betting we'll get it's name around CES/GDC2012 and a fully hyped reveal at E3 2012. In Reggie I trust

[ThePerm]

of course Kinect is doing better than Move, more people have 360s than PS3s

[jimwood27]

of course they arent going to say anything about a new system with the holiday season ramping up (which has been great for the Wii, just look at last year's holiday compared to the months preceding it).  the 3DS is the main focus once the new year starts and no way Nintendo launches a second system in the same year.


Reggie also says in that interview that the Wii is still tracking 20+% higher in sales compared to the PS2 (the best selling system ever) during the same period of its existence.  There is still room for price drops to $149 and then $99, as well as different bundles that we are seeing pop up.


I understand the want of a more powerful system from Nintendo but it is still selling well, just not as insanely well as in the past.  We havent seen a generation where the companies have been able to refresh their systems like Sony and Microsoft have but this overwhelming sentiment that Nintendo NEEDS a new console is rather ridiculous when it is outperforming the PS2, comparatively.  Sony probably jumped the gun to get the PS3 out and could have waited to release it so maybe Nintendo doesnt want to make the same mistake.

[Peachylala]

Let us all not forget that the DS predated the Wii by at least two years. Nintendo was pretty much expecting the DS to carry them since third party and sales figured snuffed them for two generations of consoles (even if they made a profit). Wii took everyone by surprise. Nintendo was happy. Third parties were not and snuffed the system, though we all know what that led too...

I do believe Iwata (not Reggie) is keeping the Wii2/HD/3D under wraps since third party support is still giving the same old whining and complaining (though some of it is kind of justified) when it comes to Wii. I think it's absolutely ridiculous that Nintendo has to give out money hats to developers belonging to major third party publishers in order to get support like, say, Monster Hunter 3, but whatever keeps the boat afloat, stays afloat.

3DS is going to steal Wii's thunder. There is no way around it.

[NWR_pap64]

Peachlayla, you mention money hats as something that companies never do :p . But in all seriousness, video games are a business, and they will do anything to get the grand games that will make them money, even if it means shelling out millions upon millions of dollars just to get something like DLC or a game episode.


Going back to the Wii 2, here is what I was thinking... 2011 is going to be the year of the 3DS. It might be a handheld, yes, but considering that it is highly sophisticated the media is going to eat it up. The 3D without glasses thing is going to attract a lot of people, and the fact that it is the first of the next generation of handhelds to be released it's going to receive a lot of hype and coverage.


What I suspect will happen is that Nintendo will work on the 3DS, then after launch or during E3 they will begin to drop news of the next system. They will either completely tease us or do a full unveiling of a few aspects. Note that we still have a few Wii exclusives, like Skyward Sword, to get into, so Fall 2011 will be the Wii's last big holiday season before they unveil the next system.


This is just crazy theory, though, but everything looks to be happening the same way as in the past.

[Luigi Dude]

There's also the fact that hardly any of Nintendo's major studio's couldn't realistically have anything for a Wii 2 launch in 2011.  It takes Nintendo's studio's on average about 2-3 years to make a game.  Considering all of their studio's have recently released something on the Wii in the last year, or have a 3DS game scheduled to come out next year, that makes it virtually impossible for them to have anything to launch the system with in 2011 or even early 2012.

Not to mention the fact that Nintendo has never developed any HD games before.  If the Wii 2 is going to be rivaling the 360/PS3 or even more powerful, it's going to take the early generation of games even longer then normal for their studio's to make since none of them have any experience with HD development and have to create new engines as well.  The jump between systems isn't going to be like it was with the Gamecube/Wii where they were able to easily modify all their existing Gamecube engines.  If they're going to be hitting 360/PS3 level power, then it's going to take a lot more work this time.

So like I've said many time before, the earliest a Wii's successor will launch is Fall 2012 just from the basic fact that's when we could realistically expect a decent lineup of games to be ready based on Nintendo's previous development history and how their studio's work.  Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if the Wii successor doesn't launch until 2013 just for the fact that HD development might end up causes some of Nintendo's studio's some trouble because of their lack of experience right now.  Similar to how most other Japanese studio's ended taking so long to release a lot of their 360/PS3 games because HD development proved to be harder then they expected it to be.

[Chozo Ghost]

Well, if it isn't going to come out in the 4th quarter of 2011 then hopefully the 1st quarter of 2012 will be the target date.

True, Nintendo consoles see the majority of their sales during the holidays and I'm sure Nintendo would love to get in on that, but if the Wii2 is half as popular as the original Wii was there would be severe shortages if they launched in, say, November 2011. If they waited until about March of 2012 then they would be able to build up momentum and hopefully get the supply situation in order by the time the holidays roll around and be able to pack some serious punch.

I remember how hard it was to get a Wii for months and months and months after it launched. That's why I'm thinking launching the Wii 2 during a dead time of year might be the way to go. That gives more time for the library of games to improve as well, because we all know that there's going to be 2 or 3 good 1st party games and 2 or 3 decent 3rd party games at launch, and everything else is just going to be rushed casual shovelware. I'd rather get that sad time done and over with early on so that the holiday lineup can be spectacular.

[KDR_11k]

The 3DS strategy is unhealthy. Nintendo is focusing too much on tech and not enough on games.

[Killer_Man_Jaro]

Honestly, I can't say I'm surprised.

1. Firstly, consider the timing of this interview. We are homing in fast on the holiday season, where Wii sales always see a sudden spike, and this year, there is a particularly good software line-up. It's obviously not in Nintendo's interest to say anything that would discourage the Christmas boost in revenue, like, oh I don't know, "There's a new console coming soon, so everyone hold your horses."

2. Next year is the time for the 3DS to shine. Nintendo will be pumping a lot of resources into the launch of their new handheld. Again, it's not in their interest to divert any attention from that.

3. The situation with Wii software in 2011 is still a big mystery. Who knows? Right now, there isn't much we are aware of, but perhaps at E3, there will be one final unload of whatever the internal teams have left. One last surge before it walks off stage, so to speak.

[BlackNMild2k1]

There's also the fact that hardly any of Nintendo's major studio's couldn't realistically have anything for a Wii 2 launch in 2011.  It takes Nintendo's studio's on average about 2-3 years to make a game.  Considering all of their studio's have recently released something on the Wii in the last year, or have a 3DS game scheduled to come out next year, that makes it virtually impossible for them to have anything to launch the system with in 2011 or even early 2012.

You make it sound like Nintendo's studios can't make more than one game at a time. And what have most of Nintendo's studios even released over the last year that would prevent them from being ready for a Wii2 near the end of 2011 (with a more likely release date of early 2012 now that 3DS has been delayed)?


I'm sure Retro is working on more than just Donkey Kong.
Who made Kirby? what else are they working on?
SMG2 is done and Pikmin 3 is being worked on, but what else is this studio working on?
WiiParty.... probably not a studio encompassing project.
Zelda Wii.... when does that come out again?
Xenoblade is done, what else are they working on?
Nintendo has plenty of studios that I'm sure we haven't seen anything from in quite a while, what are they all up to?

Not to mention the fact that Nintendo has never developed any HD games before.  If the Wii 2 is going to be rivaling the 360/PS3 or even more powerful, it's going to take the early generation of games even longer then normal for their studio's to make since none of them have any experience with HD development and have to create new engines as well.  The jump between systems isn't going to be like it was with the Gamecube/Wii where they were able to easily modify all their existing Gamecube engines.  If they're going to be hitting 360/PS3 level power, then it's going to take a lot more work this time.

Actually Nintendo's may not have been doing HD development, but their assets have been of a really good quality and that is why they look so good ont he Dolphin emulator. If the Wii2 is capable of upscaling Wii games, Nintendo own games will already look HD, so I'm sure they will have it together when actual HD development is revealed. (I would love to see Kirby running on the Wii emulator BTW)

So like I've said many time before, the earliest a Wii's successor will launch is Fall 2012 just from the basic fact that's when we could realistically expect a decent lineup of games to be ready based on Nintendo's previous development history and how their studio's work.  Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if the Wii successor doesn't launch until 2013 just for the fact that HD development might end up causes some of Nintendo's studio's some trouble because of their lack of experience right now.  Similar to how most other Japanese studio's ended taking so long to release a lot of their 360/PS3 games because HD development proved to be harder then they expected it to be.

I really wouldn't be surprised if Skyward Sword was getting the Twilight Princess treatment with a Wii & Wii2 version. And don't forget that a Wii2 launch would likely be littered with 3rd party ports from PS360. 3rd parties have got the HD development under control now and Nintendo is no slouch when it comes to the assets they've been using, so I think they are more ready for HD development than you give them credit for. I'm not expecting Nintendo to chase the Photorealism(outside of maybe pikmin) so I don't think HD development will be all that hard.

[MaryJane]

The 3DS strategy is unhealthy. Nintendo is focusing too much on tech and not enough on games.

Nintendo has the game making part of the industry wrapped up pretty well. Other than Sonic, and Master Chief, all memorable and easily recognizable game characters are from Nintendo. There are some others like Kratos from God of War, and that one guy from Tekken, who mostly all hardcore gamers would recognize, but you could probably show the average American house wife a picture of Link, Mario, Donkey Kong, and Kirby and she would recognize them all (though she'd probably call Link Zelda). She would probably recognize Sonic and Master Chief, but who else? There's even a pretty good chance she would know of the Brain Training games, WiiSports, and WiiFit.

Nintendo knows games!

When was the last time Nintendo made a game that wasn't the gold standard? Even WiiMusic which started off slowly picked up in sales when people understood the concept and fun of it.
I would list all the unique IP's Nintendo has successfully launched (quick mention of Pikmin and Animal Crossing because I personally doubted the validity of both and was proven wrong) but you probably know them. Metroid: Other M hasn't sold well, but I personally think that is because of using only the Wiimote, it makes it seem overly simple, like a dumbed down Metroid game, despite the fact that it's a good game.

My point is this: they don't need to focus on making great games because they know how to do that, and they still have people like Miyamoto who are passionate about game making and will make sure their titles are AAA. All they need to do to perfect the formula is attract more 3rd parties, and more 'hardcore' gamers, and the way to do that in this generation is through technology. While the N64 and GC were more powerful than the PS1 and PS2, the N64 used cartridges making it feel old, and the GC couldn't escape its kiddy persona. Being kiddy and technologically advance do not go together, and I guarantee  there are still a lot of PS2/3 users who think the PS2 was more powerful than the GC, and that perception affected its user base. With the Wii, and its innovative controller, Nintendo opened up the Blue Ocean market, but in turn, closed itself off to the hardcore (non-Nintendo fan) market. A lot of gamers today are tweens who grew up with a PS1/2 in the house, not an NES or SNES, and their loyalties are with what's popular and perceived as cool. On the flip side of that, a few years ago one of my friend's younger brothers was upset with himself a few years ago for asking for a PSP for Christmas because only one other person in his class got a PSP, and 5 or 6 others got a DS.

Perception is everything, and with the 3DS Nintendo is not only making a bold statement, but they could be testing the waters for the Wii2, just like they sort of did with the DS and Wii.

Also, if Nintendo does some good 3DS/Wii integration, the 3DS could boost Wii 2011 holiday sales, meaning a E3 2012 reveal of the Wii2 and on sale by holiday 2012.

[KDR_11k]

The number of people who really care that much about graphics is tiny (the Gamecube wasn't much worse off than the XBox which everybody believed was the best system back then). The rest looks for types of games. The "hardcore" who stick to the 360 and PS3 do so for the genres that are practically not present on the Wii.

Improving the graphics while keeping the games similar means your console appeals to people who bought your last system, best case would be retaining all of those people but most likely you'll lose some in the transition. Same games with better graphics is the path to stagnation and decline. How many people looked at the DS and thought "I don't want it because the graphics look bad"? Using the PSP as evidence, not many.

Especially the talk about 2d and 3d gaming is worrying when you consider that 3d didn't help Nintendo's success in the past, neither the N64 nor the Gamecube sold as much as the NES or SNES. 2D Mario games outsell 3D Mario games. There are people who just don't like the direction these 3D games took and going by the sales numbers they are legion. Of course it isn't truly about 2D vs 3D but the actual gameplay that's massively different between the two (the Tanooki suit would not have been possible in 3D Mario as powerups are granted only as needed by the player, finding a secret stash of super powerups that you can use to beat several levels just doesn't exist in 3D) but the was Nintendo talks about the failure of the campaign to move 2D Mario gamers to 3D Mario and the failure of Other M it doesn't look like they really understand the forces they are dealing with. Ignorance like that can punch them in the gut at other times too. Since they no longer understand their own core can they really make sure their core games like Kid Icarus are going to succeed?


What would it mean for Nintendo's game output if their core games failed to resonate with the audience and subsequently failed? Would they keep experimenting until it works? Would they cut the development of core games to a lower level? Would they go back to known successes and just keep rehashing them, even more afraid of change?

[Kytim89]

Nintendo has enough software backup to legitamize a fifty dollar price cut for the Wii.

[MaryJane]

@KDR

My argument was for technology, perspective, and attracting 3rd parties (which in turn brings the 'hardcore' gamers).

Technology and/or perception > graphics.

When the Wii was announced loads of developers said they had game ideas that could only be brought to the Wii, and many of them were brought to the system, and suffered from technological weaknesses like Bloom Blox and the Wii's physics processing. 

Same with the DS, the touchscreen and dual screen allowed for new gameplay, with the difference being that one CPU powers one screen and one another, so the limitations aren't as constricting and also that Nintendo is the emperor of the handheld arena (king seems too weak a word all things considered).

The PSP was seen as the next GameGear in part because it looked like it (lol) and in part because it was built on the same philosophy of more power and less battery life than Nintendo.

@Kytim

They do, but why would they when bundles are usually the biggest holiday sales drivers? I would say expect a price cut with the 3DS launch, making the handheld seem like an even greater technological accomplishment.

[Kytim89]

If the third party situation was any better for the Wii then I could argue that the Wii could make it to 45 million units sold. But it seems as if even Nintendo is some what finished with the Wii in some sense. Although spear heading the RPG genre onto the Wii 2 might buy the system some extra time. That genre has been lacking and it might spur interest in the system again.

[Dirk Temporo]

If you think the Wii's successor will come out any time before Holiday 2012, you're pretty much delusional, and apparently have also not paid any attention to the history of the various consoles' announce and release schedules. Just because they're launching the 3DS at an odd time of year doesn't mean they'll do the same with their next home console, especially considering they probably won't even announce it until E3.

[Kytim89]

What we will get at E3 2011 is just a repeat of 2005 where we get to see what the system looks like, but games and controllers will be left to the unknown. They will most likely reveal that the system is HD and that third parties have plenty of games (ports of PS360 games) for the release of the system.

[BlackNMild2k1]

If you think the Wii's successor will come out any time before Holiday 2012, you're pretty much delusional, and apparently have also not paid any attention to the history of the various consoles' announce and release schedules. Just because they're launching the 3DS at an odd time of year doesn't mean they'll do the same with their next home console, especially considering they probably won't even announce it until E3.

So now we are all delusional for thinking Nintendo is gonna stick to it's tried and true 5 year cycle as close as possible that it can because we haven't been paying attention to history?
'86 -> '91 -> '96 -> '01 -> '06 -> ('11?)

A holiday 2011 seems a lot more unlikely now that 3DS slipped past 2010 holiday season, but just because Reggie says it's not necessary doesn't mean that it's not what they are aiming for, even if two major hardware launches at the same time is not ideal. Also the 3DS could be used to test out the early year launch period and that same strategy could be used to launch a Wii2 before FY2011 is over like 3DS is launched before FY 2010 is over.