Author Topic: Not a hater but... (future prediction)  (Read 53635 times)

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Offline Evan_B

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #50 on: December 14, 2016, 09:55:43 PM »
Yeah, they cannot expect handheld level sales if games remain at a 60 dollar price point. But I pointed this out a while ago and people were quick to point out the variable pricing of Wii U titles.


Also, I'm beginning to think Miyamoto is, in fact, a hater.
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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #51 on: December 14, 2016, 10:04:52 PM »
With very few exceptions, anytime someone starts a sentence with "I'm not a *blank*, but..." that person is most definitely a *blank*.
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Offline nickmitch

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #52 on: December 14, 2016, 10:09:30 PM »
With very few exceptions, anytime someone starts a sentence with "I'm not a *blank*, but..." that person is most definitely a *blank*.

It's like Red Delicious Apples.  If they were really delicious, they wouldn't be the ones who have to tell you.
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Offline supermario2k

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #53 on: December 16, 2016, 11:00:36 AM »
Well, I think that's a bit of an over exaggeration.


That was the point. I was replying with his absurd claims with my own absurd claims. Get with the program man damn. I guess ppl think wall of text means meltdown. Nice good to know.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2016, 11:05:25 AM by supermario2k »

Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #54 on: January 13, 2017, 12:49:23 AM »
For what it's worth, I really didn't want to be right on this one, but let's face it, baring some radical changes, this thing is dead on arrival. I'll still be pre-ordering one, but so far, everything is right on track as I predicted...

Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #55 on: January 13, 2017, 12:53:00 AM »
With very few exceptions, anytime someone starts a sentence with "I'm not a *blank*, but..." that person is most definitely a *blank*.


Ya, I'm one of those haters that literally owns a copy of every game Nintendo has published in Europe, a 64DD, a Satellaview and a whole bunch of other random Nintendo stuff. I just don't feel like I can really hate something unless I contribute thousands towards it.


Wake up! This isn't about "hating", it's about being able to decipher the obvious information in front of you.



Offline Stogi

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #56 on: January 13, 2017, 12:56:56 AM »
Walmart sold out of pre-orders.
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Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #57 on: January 13, 2017, 01:01:14 AM »
Walmart sold out of pre-orders.


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Offline ShyGuy

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #58 on: January 13, 2017, 01:02:46 AM »
I got mine at BestBuy

Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #59 on: January 19, 2017, 08:25:40 AM »
OK, so I came out and (let's be honest, probably correctly) predicted the Nintendo Switch would not be a success. Many of you were quick to suggest I was wrong. Serious question, since the January 13th reveal and subsequent reaction, how many of you have now reevaluated your opinion and are starting to see sense?




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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #60 on: January 19, 2017, 08:38:25 AM »
What a classy, non-condescending way to phrase that question.
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Offline lolmonade

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #61 on: January 19, 2017, 09:20:15 AM »
OK, so I came out and (let's be honest, probably correctly) predicted the Nintendo Switch would not be a success. Many of you were quick to suggest I was wrong. Serious question, since the January 13th reveal and subsequent reaction, how many of you have now reevaluated your opinion and are starting to see sense?


Depends on how you measure success, and I think "success" for Nintendo's sake is going to be selling out day 1 and continuing to sell through the stock they have on shelves throughout the year.  If that's the measure, I think it's premature to say anything about the Switch's "success".


If "Success" is "this system is what you're saying you want it to be, then that's a different measure.  I'd also say I don't ever remember a system launch that had a breadth of awesome games and fully featured out the gate.  There's some concerning news in some cases (peripheral pricing), or lack of info (online services), but I think if you're looking for Nintendo's games and like what they offer, there's plenty to look forward to in the Switch, especially since they went ahead and announced ANOTHER game for 2018 in the Fire Emblem series.
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Offline nickmitch

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #62 on: January 19, 2017, 05:28:15 PM »
I feel like I love the system, but hate so many of the things about it.  I'm worried Nintendo's obvious missteps will bite them.  I don't see them grabbing PS4/XB1 owners.
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Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #63 on: January 19, 2017, 05:36:12 PM »
What a classy, non-condescending way to phrase that question.


What a totally not-at-all passive-aggressive way of avoiding said question.




Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #64 on: January 19, 2017, 05:44:31 PM »

Depends on how you measure success, and I think "success" for Nintendo's sake is going to be selling out day 1 and continuing to sell through the stock they have on shelves throughout the year.




I think Nintendo will definitely sell through their launch allotment (2 million) by the end of March, but I also think a year later in March 2018 Nintendo will be lucky if they're at 5 million.

Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #65 on: January 19, 2017, 07:39:44 PM »
OK, so I came out and (let's be honest, probably correctly) predicted the Nintendo Switch would not be a success. Many of you were quick to suggest I was wrong. Serious question, since the January 13th reveal and subsequent reaction, how many of you have now reevaluated your opinion and are starting to see sense?

Honestly, I'm more of the mind that your prediction will end up being incorrect as we near the beginning of the Switch era. A lot of people are down on the Switch right now because there was some point they didn't like in the presentation. Whether it was the cost, the news of paying for online, the amount of games shown or a game reveal they didn't care for, it just seems there was something to be disappointed about. At the same time, there was also stuff to like and be interested in. What I'm seeing more and more as we move on from the presentation is caution. Because there are a lot of things that still interest people about the system, (and its portability still seems to be one of the biggest draws for many) I do think more people are willing to give it a chance. It just has to overcome a factor for each customer whether it be something like price or more game announcements.

The AV Club had a write-up on the Switch I was reading the other day and you can see this attitude in the write-up and comments below. The reviewer found a lot to like and a lot that interested him about the system while there were still a couple things he was also wary about. It was interesting to read the comments after though. Even though you get a few of the usual comments like people wishing Nintendo would go third party so they could just play everything on their PS4 or wanting to release a console in similar specs to the competition, there are a lot of people who talk about being interested in the Switch for some reason or other whether it be the games, portability or the controllers. It's interesting to see other people's comments outside of these forums which can be a bit of an echo chamber sometimes.

Heck, I've got a friend who's never been much of a Nintendo fan or gamer. He's stuck with Sony systems for some time. Was an early adopter of the PSP and critical of the DS in its early lifespan. Kind of also a Sega fan too. I sent him an e-mail asking if he was excited about the Switch presentation. Of course, he didn't really know about it going on. Anyways, we talked a bit after the presentation and he ended up watching it a day later and wrote back saying "I must say I haven't been this excited for a Nintendo release before...assuming I can afford it, it'll be a day 1 purchase (hooray no region lock!)." His exact words which really surprised me.

So, yes, there might be some growing pains at first with the Switch but as more games come out for it and/or the price does get lowered a bit, I can see sales for it really taking off or at least it selling at higher rate than the Wii U or GameCube even. Of course, there is the chance of outside factors affecting things like possible trade agreements changing the cost and distribution of things but I'm not interested in steering the conversation into political waters so that's all I will mention on that. The point being that if outside factors stay as is then I do think Nintendo can win over more consumers as time goes by unlike with the Wii U where they just couldn't change the negative perception. There may be some negativity with the Switch right now but at least there is a lot of positivity with it too that can yet be tapped into which didn't exist with the Wii U.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2017, 07:42:39 PM by Khushrenada »

Offline pokepal148

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #66 on: January 19, 2017, 09:20:11 PM »
When I went to Gamestop to get a used DSi XL two different customers came in after me and both asked the clerk about the Switch while I was checking their used DS games. One of them even asked about pre-ordering.
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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #67 on: January 19, 2017, 10:14:20 PM »
I can see this system having legs. For as many details as I hate, there are a surprising number of people who want to play home console games anywhere.


I'll make a bold prediction. Switch + Pokemon = Switch is the #1 selling home console for the year.

Offline ThePerm

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #68 on: January 20, 2017, 12:31:32 AM »
Over the past few days I've been re-evaluating. The last presentation had problems. We still only have rumored specs. I had made the comment that it would be bad if Nintendo sacrificed valuable RAM for stupid haptic feedback.

But If I were to predict how the Switch will do based on it's positioning. I think Japanese third parties will flock to it. Western Third Parties will be Wary. Indies will love it.

Big Third Parties will have financial problems in the future. We'll see some big companies fall. Nintendo will be in the position to stay afloat. I predict our usual  4-5 year console cycle will come to an end.

In  1.5 years switch is going to look really good. In 3 years the Switch Deluxe is going to look better. Right now the failure of the Wii U has put Nintendo in a good position. They have an amazing library of games to rely on that can make the Switch appealing.

There were two threads this week noticing how strong the fantasy and rpg line up is for the switch. That could be the start. I think with what is coming out with Mario and Zelda in year one we might have that solid game release pipeline we have been waiting for.
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Offline Luigi Dude

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #69 on: January 20, 2017, 01:11:24 AM »
To me the Switch early success will depend entirely on how well Nintendo markets Zelda.  Seriously, this was the reaction to Breath of the Wild at E3.




Starting in February, Nintendo needs to go all out in advertising this game.  Gets ads out everywhere so people are being exposed to several Zelda commercials everyday.  Also try to give as many publications and videogame reviewers early copies of the game as possible that can hopefully declare it the genre revolutionizing experience before launch that it could be.  If they can repeat the same kind of excitement the game got at E3 on a worldwide scale, this could be huge.

A 200+ hour open open world revolution experience will be much easier to convince people to spend over $300 to buy then a 20+ hour 2D platformer that had a similar experience released just 3 months earlier. 
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Offline crashnnburn

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #70 on: January 20, 2017, 10:42:52 AM »
I think the Switch has the potential to be a success. Yes 'the kids' have tablets now and can play cheap video games etc. But when 2 kids take their Switches to school, and play it at lunch time or after school other kids will watch. And if you're 14 and see two kids playing console quality on what looks like an IPad, you ask "hey what app is that?, can i play with you guys?" And they'll laugh and say "no, you need a Switch to play, 8 of us can play Bomberman together! you should get one!". Now think of this happening all over the world.

Trust me it has extremely great potential to catch on like fire and I think that is all Nintendo needs. No marketing will be better than word of mouth. Until now, i'm not sure you can't really play anything on an IPad with that quality of graphics and simultaneous online. Once you get third party support, there's nothing stopping this from going viral. If you get a shitty Call of Duty port, done deal. The question is, can the Switch handle 3rd party games at a steady framerate.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2017, 10:44:38 AM by crashnnburn »

Offline DonkeyBilly Kong

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #71 on: January 20, 2017, 01:52:16 PM »
Reading your comments about people who aren't into videogames or Nintendo devices wanting the Switch reminds me of the Wii.  I was also thinking about pricing with the Wii, and how common thinking before the price reveal was that it would be $199 maximum because of the technology involved.  But, Nintendo hit just the right price point.  Maybe their market research is again correct, even if the pricing of the 3DS and Wii U were mistakes.

The main difference is that the Wii had a game to evangelize people bundled in in the United States.  Mario Kart and Minecraft would make nice games for that, and maybe enough people will buy them for it to work.  An issue might be core Nintendo fans buying it and only Zelda for a while.

The biggest strength of the Switch is that it is a portable.  Its downfall might be that it is marketed as a console.

Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #72 on: January 21, 2017, 11:36:06 AM »
I was also thinking about pricing with the Wii, and how common thinking before the price reveal was that it would be $199 maximum because of the technology involved.  But, Nintendo hit just the right price point.  Maybe their market research is again correct, even if the pricing of the 3DS and Wii U were mistakes.



I think that Nintendo ended up regretting the low Wii launch price. Knowing what an evidently greedy company they are, I bet they wished they raised the Wii price by at least $50 at launch, failing to take into account that it was precisely the low price point that helped sell the console. This is probably why the 3DS and Wii U were so overly priced at launch.


I had no idea what the price would be when I predicted the demise of the Switch back in December, but I assumed $250 at the most. The $300 price tag only cements the console's doom. I can't feel too bad for Nintendo though, because all of this was entirely avoidable. You would think that a multi-billion dollar company would employ some people with a bit of basic common sense at the top.


Offline ThePerm

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #73 on: January 21, 2017, 12:35:49 PM »
Peter Main years ago said Nintendo would only sell consoles at a mass market retail price. At the time it was 199.99. He made this assertion around the transition from n64 to Gamecube. I predicted the price at $299.99. This is based on inflation. If you go through the prices. They are pretty consistent.

http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/news/5963/the-big-ns-official-word-on-prices
http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/guide/1787/gamecube-faq-release-date-n-pricing-information
Howard Lincoln echoing.

There is this article, but I think I remember reading one where he was responding to Dreamcasts pricing.

When we look at price we can see that unlike the Wii U, most likely Switch's price will go down as time goes on. Also, game prices will get cheaper.  2 years from now a $99 switch is going to be really appealing.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2017, 12:42:29 PM by ThePerm »
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Offline Miyamoto

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Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
« Reply #74 on: January 21, 2017, 01:34:15 PM »


When we look at price we can see that unlike the Wii U, most likely Switch's price will go down as time goes on. Also, game prices will get cheaper.  2 years from now a $99 switch is going to be really appealing.


I think the Switch will have the exact same problem as the Wii U, in that the elaborate hardware makes it very difficult to significantly bring the price down even over many years. It's one thing for chips to get easier/cheaper to produce but when you start factoring in touch screens and what-not it becomes a lot harder.


You can take it to the bank that Nintendo's next "console" will be a glorified dongle that plays all Nintendo games and offers mass media and retails for $99.99. And guess what? It'll be another 100 million seller. Nintendo's just going to make some costly mistakes before they realise what makes money and what doesn't. But you'll have it by 2020. It's so obvious even Nintendo can't avoid it. Oh and just to repeat, the future of Nintendo portable gaming lies in an iOS/Android suite with optional bluetooth controls. Why spend hundreds of millions on R&D only to produce a product that is inferior to what is already available?