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« on: July 14, 2003, 08:52:07 AM »
An interesting theory you have, but you are missing the Sony-Factor, heh. Sony will not just sit on their butts and wait for Nintendo to take their slot (or X-Box for that case). They did not just become number 1 out of luck (or some people do think so), but they worked for it. Knew how to market and climbed their way to number 1. Afterall, they had to dethrone Nintnedo's hold over the console industry during the PS1 and N64 saga.
I certianly think both Microsoft and Nintendo will take a big chunk out of Sony's hold on consoles, but I think Sony is already prepared for that. They had the lucky 1 year head start, which has pretty much won them in this generation, but they are loosing that factor next year. Sony likely has something big prepared, just as Microsoft and Nintendo do too. It'll all come down to who's is bigger.
Then comes the market-factor. We both know Microsoft is willing to throw the big $$$bucks$$$ to get advertising, buying companies, etc. Sony is also extremely aggressive with advertising. You can expect them to be head-to-head with X-Box in marketing campaigns, etc. Nintendo needs to do the same. We know thye are a conservative company, but they have to be willing to loose some money for marketing during launch. (the money will ultimately come back if they become the number 1 console). I don't know how much I can stress for Nintendo to market, market, market!!!
But any ways...I still think most of the mainstream games will stick with Sony, some will split between Microsoft and Nintendo, while some buy all 3. Microsoft is ready to make its leap at Sony's title just as Nintendo. You can probably expect it to be a 2 on 1 for a while, until the market share evens to about 40%, 30%, 30%.
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