Post by: Grey Ninja on June 20, 2003, 05:59:10 AM
If both Playstation 3 and Nintendo's next system launch in early 2005 as planned, then I don't think that Microsoft has a hope in hell next generation. Launching a year later is going to cause a serious deficit in games in their console once again, and it will give Sony and Nintendo a year's head start. I seriously think that this could be Microsoft's last mistake in this market.
Time will tell of course, and it's entirely possible that Sony and Nintendo's consoles could be pushed back, but I think it likely that Nintendo means to debut at the same time as the PS3 whether they are ready or not.
Post by: Hostile Creation on June 20, 2003, 07:25:43 AM
Post by: Ian Sane on June 20, 2003, 07:32:30 AM
I don't think the Xbox 2 will flop but if both competing consoles launch a year earlier then it's going to be hard for MS to keep up. The PS2 may have had a head start this time but it didn't really release any great games until the second year. Sony really didn't even try until the competition launched. If both Sony and Nintendo launch in 2005 then by the time the Xbox launches the PS3 will have a much more agressive lineup because it will have had to match up with Nintendo in direct competition. Of course the real variable here is when Nintendo will launch. They might say they're going to match the competition but let's face it, the only console they ever launched before the competition was the NES. Everything else came out at least a year later.
Nintendo SHOULD launch at the same time and I think they know that they pretty much have to but that doesn't mean they'll pull it off. If I was Nintendo though I would launch at the same time as Sony no matter what, even if the launch lineup isn't that large. As long as they release a system seller at launch they should be okay. The rest of the lineup can then be filler like the Xbox launch.
Post by: Grey Ninja on June 20, 2003, 08:43:41 AM
Nintendo is under new leadership now. Although we all realize that they will be launching half-assed, it's never kept Sony from doing well. I think that Nintendo means to hold onto their deadline this time around. It's possible that they could launch with 3rd party games alone if they don't have any 1st party games ready at launch.
Post by: Ian Sane on June 20, 2003, 09:09:46 AM
I would assume they would have the exact opposite problem. Since Nintendo designs the hardware they usually start working on games well before the third parties.
I think the PS2 shows that having a wide variety of decent titles is sufficient for a launch. But having a huge killer app (Halo, Super Mario 64) can make up for a lack of games. If Nintendo wants to do well they'll have to do one or the other. Another launch like the Gamecube's, which had both a lack of games and no killer app, will not work. I say they should concentrate on having a mega killer app since Sony likely will just have a bunch of okay third party games.
The ideal situation for the next launch is for Nintendo to try to have each of their development teams working on a launch game so that they can have at least five first party titles released within the first few months. If they can do that and get at least one launch exclusive from Namco, Capcom and Sega (and maybe Square and Konami) they would have a very attractive launch lineup even if the individual games aren't amazing. Just simple games like a racing game or a fighting game can really help strengthen a launch and can make up for any potential software droughts.
Post by: mouse_clicker on June 20, 2003, 10:41:59 AM
That's true, but it also had a year's worth of console sales, in the millions, before either the Gamecube or XBox launched, and that translates into a larger user base which would be more enticing to third parties. Launching a year later may not have a huge impact, but it certainly won't help, either.
"I think the PS2 shows that having a wide variety of decent titles is sufficient for a launch. But having a huge killer app (Halo, Super Mario 64) can make up for a lack of games. If Nintendo wants to do well they'll have to do one or the other."
I completely agree, but if Nintendo wants a REALLY good launch, they should not only have a wide variety of games at launch but also a killer app- that would encourage casual gamers to buy more than one game at launch (Halo was and SM64 were pretty much the only launch titls that sold well at all). I would also attract a very large variety of gamers, which in turn attracts a large variety of third parties, etc, etc.
Post by: Fish on June 20, 2003, 12:52:38 PM
Post by: mouse_clicker on June 20, 2003, 01:11:23 PM
Post by: aoi tsuki on June 20, 2003, 05:38:07 PM
http://news.com.com/2100-1043_3-1019181.html?tag=fd_top
The article states other intersting bits, like how PSX is intended to renew the Playstation brand, given that the Cell processor is behind schedule. But wasn't Cell supposedly not planned to be in PS3? Ugh, my head is spinning.
Looking for more sources; at the moment my cable connection is running slower than 56k.
Post by: Termin8Anakin on June 20, 2003, 07:26:22 PM
I'm so excited!
Cell not going to be in PS3? Cell is delayed?
Go Nintendo!
Get the head start!
Post by: BrianSLA on June 20, 2003, 08:18:29 PM
Post by: mouse_clicker on June 20, 2003, 09:11:40 PM
The cell processor WAS supposed to be in the PS3 (as stated by a Sony exec), but it was too far behind schedule and the PS3 will use a different processor.
Post by: Grey Ninja on June 20, 2003, 09:12:36 PM
http://www.gamespot.com/xbox/news/news_6030278.html
Copy and paste, as I am too tired to bother with the links.
Post by: Ymeegod on June 21, 2003, 05:05:27 AM
Duh. It's already going beta at the end of THIS year which gives it plenty of time to work out quirks, and Sony is building a mega-million (can't recall the number but it's over 100 million) production plant just for the upcoming cell processor & HDTV decoder (the HDTV decoder might be for the PS3 but I think it's going be used for those WEGA tv's). The plant is going be up and running this winter/spring.
As for GC2--I really doubt it's going be released in TIME (the GC was supposed to be released in 2000 and we all know how that turned out).
In fact I think Nintendo doesn't plan on it even. Still think they are trying to trick MS or Sony into releasing their console premature.
If you think releasing one year ahead is going help, it won't. DC is a perfect example. Sony has the fans and the vast majority will just wait a year for the PS3. So releasing the GC2 early would be a huge mistake IMO. You really have to wait and release at the EXACT same time (or close ) that way sony can't change hardware specs and will have to release A rated games as well.
Post by: Ymeegod on June 21, 2003, 05:11:12 AM
Sony plans to invest 200 billion yen (1.6 billion dollars) over the next three years on cutting-edge processor facilities. Of this, 73 billion (608 million dollars) will be invested this year for the construction of a new microprocessor facility to be located at the company's current microprocessor plant in the Japanese city of Nagasaki. Currently, the plant produces the Graphics Synthesizers used in the PS2.
The new facility will allow for the production of 300 millimeter wafer-based chips utilizing an industry-leading 65-nanometer process technology. Both larger wafer sizes and smaller chip sizes allow for more advanced technology and cost cutting. Mass production at the new facility could begin as early as 2005.
Sony will also be investing in another cutting-edge production plant, this one under operation of Toshiba, one of Sony's partners in gaming hardware crime. This plant is currently being used for the manufacturing of PS2 Emotion Engine Processors. Toshiba itself will initially invest 40 billion yen in the plant to equip it with 300 millimeter wafer production facilities that it expects will be able to produce 12,500 wafers per month starting late Spring/early Summer of 2004. The new facilities are also being developed for the 65 nanometer process, although the company is eyeing a shift to a 45 nanometer process in the future. The entire cost for the upgrade is expected to cost 200 billion yen, with Sony's planned investment currently unknown.
All these investments are centered on the production of the Cell processor, which Sony's press materials once again stipulate is targeted towards next generation computer entertainment systems. Sony made no specific mention of the PS3, though, and when asked about a specific time frame for next generation computer entertainment hardware that makes use of the Cell, Sony reps responded with "No Comment."
The Cell itself seems to be just the starting point for Sony's plans, though, and the new facilities are being designed with broader horizons in view. Sony is eyeing the production of chips for broadband network applications in general, and will also be equipping its new facility with the means of producing general DRAM and CCD and CMOS chips used for imaging technology. As a result, Sony states that these new investments concern not just Sony Computer Entertainment, but the entire Sony Group as a whole.
"
1.6 BILLION--
.Post by: mouse_clicker on June 21, 2003, 06:20:33 AM
And who are you to say Nintendo doesn't plan on releasing the Gamecube 2 in time? Iwata (that's the president, just in case you didn't know) has said they fully expect to release their next console in time, so don't go giving me this crap that they're gonna be late. In my opinion, your word on Nintendo's plans is to be trusted below that of a gnat.
Post by: Termin8Anakin on June 21, 2003, 06:29:48 AM
Post by: Ymeegod on June 21, 2003, 07:38:52 AM
LOOK at the sources. Each source loops back to this mag, Electronic Design Chain. :0 DUH.
It's called bad journalism. Can't believe everything you read--sony HAS never stated that the PS3 won't have the Cell Processor--fact.
Post by: mouse_clicker on June 21, 2003, 09:55:11 AM
Post by: manunited4eva22 on June 21, 2003, 01:47:32 PM
Post by: mouse_clicker on June 21, 2003, 01:59:12 PM
And since Grey Ninja's link finally worked for me (it was down last time I tried it), the XBox 2 is indeed launching in 2006 in Japan- that's still going to have a huge hit on getting into the Japanese market when it's a year behind both of it's competitors there.
Post by: Ymeegod on June 21, 2003, 02:19:36 PM
Like I said, Nintendo's the one screaming 2005 (spring) but they haven't been the best on releasing on time.
And it's really not going pan out if nintendo launches ahead of Sony since the majority of fans will wait a year. Dreamcast is prime example of why prelaunching doesn't mean jack. Nintendo will have to have SOMETHING to gain Sony fans which I dont' see happening. Square-Enix is pretty much still going be exclusive to Sony which gives them the two biggest games series, DQ and FF. Then you have the sport jocks, race fans, ect to deal with as well.
I really can't see nintendo competing without additional developers which means dipping into the warchest which doesn't seem likely to happen. Not yet anyhow
.Post by: mouse_clicker on June 21, 2003, 03:11:44 PM
Post by: Ymeegod on June 21, 2003, 04:56:52 PM
Like I said, Nintendo LACKING in CERTAIN areas and I don't see that changing even though nintendo has the funds to change it.
As for N64 Vrs PS--it wasn't just because it was released first (namely Sony only had a million fanbase of 3 Million by the time N64 was released). It's advantage was the N64 lack of titles, price (PS was $50 lower and the games were priced at $40 vrs $60-75 for some N64 titles). Also nintendo was retarded and had a fallout with Squaresoft. When Squaresoft left alot of fans left as well, not to mention the other 3rd parties switching like Enix. Also this began nintendo's whole "RPG's are out" and then canceled their own RPG series like Mother 64 for example.
What's worse was the whole pokemon craze that went on with the N64. Nintendo somehow managed to pump out 4 pokemon titles but the mature titles were lacking. Hell a few mature titles like SIN wasn't even released in the USA.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sony new the importance of 3rd party support.
Post by: Termin8Anakin on June 21, 2003, 08:25:18 PM
Only a few months ahead of Sony too.
that would give them more time to iron the chinks in the armour.
Post by: mouse_clicker on June 21, 2003, 09:42:44 PM
And I doubt Sin and Punishment (if that is indeed what you were talking about) would've sold well at all- Japanese-styled rail shooters aren't too popular in the US. Also, last I checked, Pokemon games sell like crazy. Don't get me wrong- even I, the blubberign Nintendo fanboy, think Nintendo's milking that franchise like there's no tomorrow, but you have to expect a company to meet demand when a game sells as well as Pokemon has- look at Final Fantasy.
Yes, Sony knew the importance of 3rd party support and so does Nintendo since Yamauchi left (I admire everything he did for the company, seriously, but when he had a grudge it withstood no matter how completely illogical.
Post by: KDR_11k on June 21, 2003, 10:19:59 PM
Post by: Termin8Anakin on June 22, 2003, 04:37:10 AM
Releasing early, however, could also potentially have Dreamcast similarity. Nintendo has hardly been popular in recent years, so mainstream may not even give Nintendo a second look, and continue waiting for PS3 and XBox2.
BUT!
For us in Australia, Gamecube has been released just over a year, so if Nintendo could get the amount of games they have now in a year for GC2 (around about the time PS3 and Xbox2 are released), I don't think even Sony could keep up.
So releasing early for Nintendo has it's ups and downs. Hopefully not too many downs.
They need to get next gen games off 3rd party dev-cos before they can be ported to PS3/XB2 (in the case of sports games, before the next version is available - developers may even delay the current version of a GC2 sports title to make the new PS3/XB2 version, which EA seems to have done with AFL Live 2003 for GC), and 3rd parties are known to ditch the GC for PS2/XBox, so Nintendo have to watch out for that.
Post by: manunited4eva22 on June 22, 2003, 12:19:18 PM
Post by: mouse_clicker on June 22, 2003, 12:39:22 PM
Read it, didn't get any useful info. It started off just being a bunch of tech nerds talking about how powerful the Cell will be, then it turned into a discussion about MGS2:S, then it went back to the tech nerds talking about how powerful the Cell will be- I stopped reading around apge 20 because I didn't see any links to articles with Sony saying the Cell would be in the PS3.
I did find one interesting quote, though, from a certain user name boggyb, who I think inhabits this forum as well:
"PS3 will be less powerful than Xbox and much more powerful than Cube, Nintendo's final console."
Post by: manunited4eva22 on June 22, 2003, 03:59:10 PM
As a note about boggyb, I made a comment about that to him, but it got deleted. Funny the flamebate is fine, but the responce dissproving it is not.
well some of the things I found in another thread there
http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2003/0529/kaigai03l.gif
http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2003/0529/kaigai01l.gif
http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2003/0529/kaigai02l.gif
http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2003/0529/kaigai04l.gif
http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2003/0529/kaigai05l.gif
and here is the thread
http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=12&page=1
there is more stuff in there, I am just too lazy to read all 72 pages.
Post by: Mario on June 23, 2003, 02:18:38 AM
http://www.mcvuk.com/
Xbox 2 in 2005
Oh, and PS3 will dominate next gen, there is no denying that. 1.6 BILLION DOLLARS?! Bloody hell, Nintendo only have 5 billion dollars in thier whole stash. :\ I doubt Nintendo can compete with that
Post by: mouse_clicker on June 23, 2003, 03:36:45 AM
Post by: manunited4eva22 on June 23, 2003, 05:34:30 AM
Post by: mouse_clicker on June 23, 2003, 09:10:27 AM
If you're right, then not the PS3 at all. The Cell is merely a chip being used in the PS3- it DOES have other applications. Besides, I recall Nintendo putting a crapload of money into the chip for the N64, as well.
Post by: BrianSLA on June 23, 2003, 09:58:16 AM
http://www.gamespot.com/xbox/news/news_6030450.html
Post by: Grey Ninja on June 23, 2003, 12:30:03 PM
Ah well, I'm sure that sooner or later it will die anyways. And for those of you positive that the PS3 will dominate, you must not be a longtime gamer. If anything has proven true over the years, it's the simple fact that the dominant console tends to change from one generation to the next.
Genesis -> Saturn
NES -> SNES
SNES - > N64
Just because Sony has been leading for the past 2 generations doesn't mean it will carry over to the next. To the contrary, it seems that Sony is making some very risky moves. The Cell is going to be a real nightmare to code for I am sure, and Sony might very well make a console that's even more precocious than the PS2. Sony is not well known for having decent launch titles, while Nintendo is. If all the consoles launch simultaneously, I think that Nintendo has a really good chance of kicking butt.
The GameCube has earned back the respect of many people who lost faith in Nintendo during the N64 era.
The Playstation 2 has continued to break down, and warrant replacement every now and then, continuing the legacy of the PSX.
The Xbox has firmly dissapointed many of its fans. I look around and see it losing userbase all the time.
At the end of this generation, I think that the PS2 and the GameCube will both be remembered fondly. That is going to create a fresh slate on the battlefield for the next generation. If Nintendo gets out the door in time, then they might just stand on even territory with the PS3. It's really the launch titles that are going to make the difference.
Sony is no doubt going to be featuring a promise for more Final Fantasies, and GTA, which they did with the PS2. Launch titles will likely be entirely 3rd party. As a result, I can't speculate what will appear.
Nintendo is no doubt going to be pushing for more support from Konami and Square, and might very well show a similar lineup in aspect to the PS3.
Launch titles on Nintendo's console will likely include some good 1st party games, and probably something from Factor 5. Silicon Knights will likely be present this time around, even if their game is out a couple of months after launch. Silicon Knights seems to be becoming Nintendo's trump card, and I can't see Nintendo letting such a perfect chance of sending SK mainstream slip them by.
As for Xbox 2, I would pretty much count on Halo 3 being shown in video form. At launch they will likely have a couple of PC ports, as has been the trend for the Xbox.
Post by: Termin8Anakin on June 24, 2003, 03:57:21 AM
Sony is pretty popular, so that age old 'console popularity lasting for only one (now two) generations' may be out the window into the bushfire.
Nintendo releasing ON TIME is another matter entirely.
I just hope that it's before Sony and M$/.
Post by: Uncle Rich AiAi on June 25, 2003, 02:36:54 AM
Quote
Originally posted by: Grey Ninja
The GameCube has earned back the respect of many people who lost faith in Nintendo during the N64 era.
I assume you mean developers, right?
Am I the only one that thinks that Nintendo is saving Silicon Knights' Too Human as a launch title for their next console? Because that game could be the killer launch title they need in the Western market.
Post by: Termin8Anakin on June 25, 2003, 06:05:23 AM
Halo is popular, but is Bungie really going to spend all their time making ONLY Halo? Or are those guys (don't know who the developer is) ONLY going to make Prohect Gotham? I don't think we'll see Perfect Dark 2/0 and Banjo3 until next generation.
And if the consoles are going to release in 2005, well, there's not enought time to make all these games for this generation and be GREAT games at the same time. Rare is busy making Conker, Kameo and Grabbed by the Ghoulies, but even so, Kameo isn't really THAT aniticipated is it? And last I heard, Grabbed was the laughing stock of E3. Conker is perhaps the only Rare game we know that's anticipated, and it's a remake. And if a remake takes this long, how long will a new game take, even though it's been in development since the N64?
Sorry if this makes no sense, or I seem that I'm rambling on, but games nowadays need such long development times if they want the 'perfect balance', that a developer may only release that one game, and ONLY one game for each generation. MGS:TTS is at least a remake. M$ might even have a shortage of exlusive killer apps when it comes to launch, since rare is really their only 'console' developer.
Post by: mouse_clicker on June 25, 2003, 06:20:47 AM
Bungie, I think, worked on Halo for 6 years (and it shows)- I'm not sure if they were working on anything else during that time or even if they're big enough to do so, but Bungie has been around quite a while and has a few releases under their belt. I'm also not sure if they're working on anything other than Halo 2 right now, but considering the popularity of Bungie among XBox fans, I would think they'll have at least one more release on the console.
Post by: Uncle Rich AiAi on June 26, 2003, 12:43:18 AM
They have developed a fair amount of Macintosh games.
Post by: Termin8Anakin on June 26, 2003, 01:00:39 AM
Haha.
Post by: Grey Ninja on June 26, 2003, 03:42:44 PM
Quote
Originally posted by: AiAiQuote
Originally posted by: Grey Ninja
The GameCube has earned back the respect of many people who lost faith in Nintendo during the N64 era.
I assume you mean developers, right?
No, actually I meant gamers.
It's been my personal experience that many people who hated the N64 are now either eyeing up the GCN pretty good, or have already bought one. The reason being that the 3rd party support is actually pretty good on GameCube, and Nintendo doesn't have to go it alone this time. (My friends, and most people I know don't really play sports games either)Post by: Uncle Rich AiAi on June 26, 2003, 04:09:59 PM
Post by: Grey Ninja on June 26, 2003, 07:04:26 PM
Post by: Termin8Anakin on June 27, 2003, 04:21:15 PM
Hype seems to be what all consoles depend on at some point, not so much quality games.
It's hype!hype!hype! And then when they discover ONE good game (Halo) it's like, Hype!Hype!Hype! Get Halo! It's the BEST GAME EVER! HypE!Hype!Hype!
