Gaming Forums => General Gaming => Topic started by: GoldenPhoenix on April 16, 2009, 03:20:09 AM
Title: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on April 16, 2009, 03:20:09 AM
Here is what VGchartz has for predictions for the top 20 games for March. The VGC numbers are black while the NPD numbers will be blue.
March 09:
1. Pokemon Platinum 854,274854,274
2. Wii Sports 818,552 (Not sure if this is included in NPD but oh well)
3. Resident Evil 5 Xbox 360 796,574938,000
4. Halo Wars 656,865639,000
5. Wii Fit 592,024541,000
6. RE5 PS3 492,649585,000
7. Wii Play 357,024285,00
8. Killzone 2 308,396296,000
9. Mario Kart Wii 307,040278,000
10. MLB 2k9 Xbox 360 235,221205,000
11. MLB 09 The Show PS3 191,050305,000
12 CoD: WaW Xbox 360 157,588
13. Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown wars 155,51689,000
14. New Super Mario Bros. 150,088
15. Mario Kart DS 134,318
16. SFIV Xbox 360 128,426
17. Guitar Hero World Tour Wii 124,653
18. Mario Tennis 124,444
19. Tom Clancy's HAWK Xbox 360 120,006
20. Professor Layton and the Mysterious Village (I love seeing this one hang in there!) 118,609
Hardware:
Wii 818,552601,000
DS 604,520 563,000
Xbox 360 369,287330,000
PS3 309,209218,000
PSP 229,876168,000
PS2 101,078112,000
We'll see how these compare to the official NPD numbers. It will probably take a bit to get the top 20 down. Any help getting there would be appreciated!
April 09 1 Pokemon Platinum Nintendo 847,270433k 2 Wii Sports Nintendo 568,334 3 Wii Fit Nintendo 512,859471K 4 Guitar Hero: Metallica Activision 326,404 5 Mario Kart Wii Nintendo 274,268210K 6 Wii Play Nintendo 250,610170k 7 Guitar Hero: Metallica Activision 248,456 8 The Godfather II Electronic Arts 226,827155k 9 Resident Evil 5 Capcom 214,392122k 10 Mario Kart DS Nintendo 201,544112k 11 New Super Mario Bros Nintendo 192,406119 12 Professor Layton and the Mysterious Village Nintendo 167,663 13 Call of Duty: World at War Activision 165,816 14 Rhythm Heaven Nintendo 165,426 15 Halo 3 Microsoft 147,134 16 Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars Take-Two Interactive 144,02574k 17 Resident Evil 5 Capcom 142,617 18 Guitar Hero: Metallica Activision 131,864 19 Super Mario 64 DS Nintendo 126,182 20 Nintendogs Nintendo 123,105
This has been an interesting experiment, and it appears that VGchartz is WAY off when it comes to predicting hardware sales, while game sales they seem to nail within 15% of VGchartz which I think is pretty impressive considering they do not have the funding nor the resources of a NPD and are a free to everyone. Yeah there are two games where they called way off with those being The Show on PS3 and Wii PLay but overally their numbers were around 15%. After taking the average based on BNM numbers they are within 11.25% of NPD if you eliminate the outlier numbers on each side of the percentage results (the Show and Halo Wars) and 13.5% if you add in the outliers. That is pretty dang impressive IMO. (Feel free to check my averaging skills, I don't pretend to be an expert!).
We also have to note that VGchartz is not estimating NPD numbers but actual, and considering NPD gives a + or - 5% or so that means the VGchartz numbers can be either closer or farther away.
We'll see what changes as I continue down the top 20 list. So far it looks like if you choose to use VGchartz as a reference you should figure in the percentage difference between NPD numbers. So if you are willing to allow wiggle room in estimating a games total units of around 15% you should be fine. Also it seems safe to say that their lifetime figures should be accurate since they do adjust numbers each month to match NPD, just remember to figure in the non-NPD month with what appears to be the %15 accuracy for North American sales.
Additional notes on VGchartz Accuracy from IGN:
According to Matt on the 5/6 edition of NVC, developers refer people to VC chartz for Wiiware/DSi Ware sales because they are fairly accurate. Which is good to know since there is no other way to get these numbers indicating, if true (and I am not on the silly hate IGN bandwagon) indicates VGchartz does have sources inside the development community.
My problem with this is that their numbers do not match what I pulled from their site. I'll have to see next month about this NPD Preview. They may modify their numbers at the end of the month and put it in a feature.
Ewww
This month (april) isn't looking good in regards to accuracy they were way off in regards to Pokemon and other titles.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: Mop it up on April 16, 2009, 04:36:19 AM
I wonder if the number for Mario Power Tennis is correct, I didn't think it would sell very well.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: Peachylala on April 16, 2009, 11:04:12 AM
Never underestimate the selling power of Mario sports titles, Mop. It could sell better then expected.
...Why is there so many over-rated crap on this chart though? Oh wait, NA gamers, lol. Like other regions aren't worse.
GO GO NSMB!
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: BlackNMild2k1 on April 16, 2009, 12:38:37 PM
Here is what VGchartz has for predictions for the top 20 games for March
1. Pokemon Platinum 854,274
2. Wii Sports 818,552 (Not sure if this is included in NPD but oh well)
3. Resident Evil 5 Xbox 360 796,574
4. Halo Wars 656,865
5. Wii Fit 592,024
6. RE5 PS3 492,649
7. Wii Play 357,024
8. Killzone 2 308,396
9. Mario Kart Wii 307,040
10. MLB 2k9 Xbox 360 235,221
11. MLB 09 The Show PS3 191,050
12 CoD: WaW Xbox 360 157,588
13. Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown wars 155,516
14. New Super Mario Bros. 150,088
15. Mario Kart DS 134,318
16. SFIV Xbox 360 128,426
17. Guitar Hero World Tour Wii 124,653
18. Mario Tennis 124,444
19. Tom Clancy's HAWK Xbox 360 120,006
20. Professor Layton and the Mysterious Village (I love seeing this one hang in there!) 118,609
Hardware:
Wii 818,552
DS 604,520
Xbox 360 369,287
PS3 309,209
PSP 229,876
PS2 101,078
We'll see how these compare to the official NPD numbers. It will probably take a bit to get the top 20 down. Any help getting there would be appreciated!
a quote is edit proof ;) still wish you posted this back when they first posted it. Just so we know if they were accurately tracking anything real-time or if numbers were still fluxuating afterwards
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: ShyGuy on April 16, 2009, 06:51:36 PM
NPD via GAF
PlayStation 2 112K PlayStation 3 218K PSP 168K Xbox 360 330K Wii 601K Nintendo DS 563K
RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA 360 938K POKEMON PLATINUM VERSION NINTENDO OF AMERICA NDS 805K HALO WARS* MICROSOFT 360 639K RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA PS3 585K WII FIT W/BALANCE BOARD NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 541K MLB '09: THE SHOW SONY PS3 305K KILLZONE 2 SONY PS3 296K WII PLAY W/REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 281K MARIO KART W/WHEEL NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 278K MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE 360 205K
How we do?
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: TJ Spyke on April 16, 2009, 06:57:19 PM
Look at that, VG Chartz off by large amounts. Just on the Wii alone they were off by more than 200K. Watch VG Chartz come up with some BS excuse again (when they were off by more than 600K in December they tried blaming NPD, even though Nintendo themselves confirmed the NPD numbers).
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: BlackNMild2k1 on April 16, 2009, 06:58:40 PM
Lets do this in NPD ranking order & see how close(or far off) VGC really is. We will have to do this for several months before we can see how consistent they are though
NPD: RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA 360 938K VGC: Resident Evil 5 Xbox 360 796,574 ------------------------ Very Wrong ~ >130k or ~ 15%
NPD: POKEMON PLATINUM VERSION NINTENDO OF AMERICA NDS 805K VGC: Pokemon Platinum 854,274 ----------------------- Close ~ <50k or ~ 6%
NPD: HALO WARS* MICROSOFT 360 639K VGC: Halo Wars 656,865 ---------------------- Very Close ~ <20k or ~ 3%
NPD: RESIDENT EVIL 5* CAPCOM USA PS3 585K VGC: RE5 PS3 492,649 --------------------- Wrong ~ >90k or ~ 16%
NPD: WII FIT W/BALANCE BOARD NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 541K VGC: Wii Fit 592,024 -------------------- Not So Close ~ >50k or ~ 9%
NPD: MLB '09: THE SHOW SONY PS3 305K VGC: MLB 09 The Show PS3 191,050 -------------------- Very Wrong ~ >100k or ~ 38%
NPD: KILLZONE 2 SONY PS3 296K VGC: Killzone 2 308,396 -------------------- Very Close ~ <15k or ~ 4%
NPD: WII PLAY W/REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 281K VGC: Wii Play 357,024 -------------------- Wrong ~ >75k or ~ 21%
NPD: MARIO KART W/WHEEL NINTENDO OF AMERICA WII 278K VGC: Mario Kart Wii 307,040 -------------------- Close ~ <30k or ~ 10%
NPD: MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K9 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE 360 205K VGC: MLB 2k9 Xbox 360 235,221 ------------------- Close ~ =30k or ~ 13%
Thats is alot that is way off . there are a few that are kinda close The %'s are the difference inbetween the two numbers (things look much worse when you look at the %'s) but we will have to compare it to next month and the month after that to be sure
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: NinGurl69 *huggles on April 16, 2009, 07:01:37 PM
lol madworld
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on April 16, 2009, 07:18:37 PM
Thanks for the comparisons BNM. It is interesting that they had the biggest differential with RE5. VGchartz has stated their margin of error is +-10%. Looks like most of these are falling under that. BTW not sure if you guy's knew but they currently state which numbers they modify when NPD comes out. At least when this month is over I can through and see what their average differential is from VGC, so if it is ever brought up to state sales numbers you'll know it will most likely be around "X" percent off.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: NinGurl69 *huggles on April 16, 2009, 07:24:12 PM
Show me percent-errors, not differences.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: BlackNMild2k1 on April 16, 2009, 07:30:02 PM
Bust-out some quadratic regressions and z-distributions.
Ewww, I remember those in statistics. Luckily that nightmare is far behind me.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: BlackNMild2k1 on April 16, 2009, 07:51:08 PM
I added some %'s but only the difference inbetween the 2 #'s. check my math, I'm not used to a regular calculator (been using a mortgage calculator for 2yrs now)
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on April 16, 2009, 07:55:05 PM
I added some %'s but only the difference inbetween the 2 #'s. check my math, I'm not used to a regular calculator (been using a mortgage calculator for 2yrs now)
Do you know if NPD puts out a margin of error for their numbers?
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: BlackNMild2k1 on April 16, 2009, 07:59:06 PM
If my memory serves me right, NPD was about 4% error including estimates
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: NinGurl69 *huggles on April 16, 2009, 08:25:49 PM
Those look right.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: Mop it up on April 16, 2009, 09:07:55 PM
Never underestimate the selling power of Mario sports titles, Mop. It could sell better then expected.
Yeah, but it is a just a port of a GameCube game that's only four years old, so I didn't know what to expect from it. In another few months it'll pass up Mario Strikers Charged.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: NWR_pap64 on April 16, 2009, 09:50:21 PM
If fans went nuts over the VGchartz numbers I can't wait to see the reactions over the official numbers...
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: ShyGuy on April 16, 2009, 10:24:04 PM
So half of the ten had a discrepancy outside the margin of error? Next step is to just guess the numbers next month and see if that is any more or less accurate.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: NinGurl69 *huggles on April 16, 2009, 10:27:35 PM
Then when you have enough months tracked for an adequate sample size, develop a trendline to gage the comparison performance.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: Ymeegod on April 18, 2009, 12:53:55 PM
Some stores like Walmart don't disclose sales so NPD estimates them, not sure what VGC does (I'm guessing they do the same).
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: BlackNMild2k1 on April 18, 2009, 01:22:58 PM
Nobody discloses anything to VGC. They guesstimate everything. Sometimes its an educated guesstimate, other times they pull numbers out of their ass. ITT we are trying to decide how often the latter is.
so far its looking like most of the time.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: BlackNMild2k1 on May 01, 2009, 01:20:05 AM
bump...
any new sales #'s from vgchartzzzzz? it is end of the month
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: BlackNMild2k1 on May 05, 2009, 12:23:09 PM
GP are you you there? or have they not posted anything yet over there yet?
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on May 05, 2009, 01:37:11 PM
GP are you you there? or have they not posted anything yet over there yet?
They usually take a week to get their weekly numbers in. So the end of April should be completed any day now (right now it is through the 25th)
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: BlackNMild2k1 on May 05, 2009, 04:30:02 PM
Ok, I'll remind you again on Friday if you haven't already posted it by then.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on May 05, 2009, 04:31:59 PM
BTW has the top 20 been leaked yet from last month with units sold? I havent' been able to find them.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: BlackNMild2k1 on May 05, 2009, 04:33:58 PM
I haven't seen them, I even looked at the 2 other sites i've seen leak NPD in the last 4 months and they both had nothing, but that was atleast 2 weeks ago when I checked.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: ddddyyyyy on May 07, 2009, 03:51:16 AM
I agree with GoldenPhoenix
MAKE IT STOP! ~Pale
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: NinGurl69 *huggles on May 07, 2009, 04:33:50 AM
No you don't.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: vudu on May 07, 2009, 01:59:18 PM
Does anyone know where I can buy some Adidas shoes to match my wedding dress?
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: UncleBob on May 07, 2009, 02:39:02 PM
NPD is coming up soon, has VGCz posted anything yet?
Read the first post goober. I've edited it
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: BlackNMild2k1 on May 13, 2009, 11:03:10 AM
I had no reason to check the first post, I usually click the little button that says NEW next to a topic, which means you should make a post stating that the first post was updated. But thanx.
Now I'll wait for ShyGuy or Salesbot to post NPD and round 2 can start.
Title: Re: As promised here is the VGchartz vs NPD
Post by: BlackNMild2k1 on May 13, 2009, 11:10:08 AM
Here is what VGchartz has for predictions for the top 20 games for March. The VGC numbers are black while the NPD numbers will be blue.
April 09 1 Pokemon Platinum Nintendo 847,270 2 Wii Sports Nintendo 568,334 3 Wii Fit Nintendo 512,859 4 Guitar Hero: Metallica Activision 326,404 5 Mario Kart Wii Nintendo 274,268 6 Wii Play Nintendo 250,610 7 Guitar Hero: Metallica Activision 248,456 8 The Godfather II Electronic Arts 226,827 9 Resident Evil 5 Capcom 214,392 10 Mario Kart DS Nintendo 201,544 11 New Super Mario Bros Nintendo 192,406 12 Professor Layton and the Mysterious Village Nintendo 167,663 13 Call of Duty: World at War Activision 165,816 14 Rhythm Heaven Nintendo 165,426 15 Halo 3 Microsoft 147,134 16 Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars Take-Two Interactive 144,025 17 Resident Evil 5 Capcom 142,617 18 Guitar Hero: Metallica Activision 131,864 19 Super Mario 64 DS Nintendo 126,182 20 Nintendogs Nintendo 123,105
