Post by: EasyCure on April 28, 2006, 09:05:53 PM
is nintendo doomed from the start? succesful launch?? number one contendor???
you tell me.
Post by: Hostile Creation on April 28, 2006, 09:13:53 PM
It could perceivably take the top spot.
But I won't say anything for certain. I'm not sure.
Cool thread idea, by the way.
Post by: Hocotate on April 28, 2006, 09:33:36 PM
Right now I think it's between Sony and Nintendo. Xbox360 could take off once the Mistwalker games are out, but after the anticipated N3 did not deliver, things are looking rather bleak. Is it just me, or is there STILL no reason to buy a 360? And MS can't be #1 until they can sell in Japan, once they get the Japanese support, the big companies like Capcom, Namco, and Konami might take them seriously, but until then... We'll be seeing the same type of games on the sytem.
I think Wii has the biggest chance of getting a MUST have game for everyone. A game that is hyped to no end and is a real system seller (ala Super Mario Bros). Wether they will take the #1 spot is anyone's guess, but I think the potential is definately there. It would be soooo nice if Wii took the top slot right from release, then we could say something like, "Nintendo made Sony cry wii wii wii all the way home." ^_^
Post by: Avinash_Tyagi on April 28, 2006, 10:10:06 PM
PS3:25-45% of Market
360:20-40% of Market
Wii:25-40% of Market
Post by: wandering on April 28, 2006, 10:20:47 PM
Post by: nemo_83 on April 28, 2006, 10:22:23 PM
gentlemen, I give you, the future.
Post by: Hostile Creation on April 28, 2006, 10:22:35 PM
I'm thinking that it'll probably outdo Xbox 360 worldwide by a pretty wide margin. I'm not sure about the PS3, but I think the only people buying 360s are the ones who own one now, trying to justify a crappy purchase (a la PSP, except possibly worse).
(I think that may be the first time I typed Wii instinctively, without thinking Rev at all. Already ingrained
)
Post by: jasonditz on April 28, 2006, 10:30:22 PM
Year 1: The Wii is a distant third in the US, doing similar to what the Cube did. The Japanese have embraced it in a significant way, and while the PS3 saw some strong early adopter numbers, most of the people who really wanted/could afford it got it early on. Wii sales going forward are vastly higher than PS3, though at this point the installed base is pretty well split.
Year 2: The Japanese market share shifts to Wii in a big way. The major Japanese companies start emphasizing the Wii, as the PS3 gradually becomes a high end niche system seeing less and less support. The US shows the 360 holding a firm lead, with interest in the PS3 dwindling as fewer big new titles get announced. The Wii is still a distant third, but the huge pipeline of Japanese games begins to attract a lot of interest.
Year 3: In a stunning development, a major Japanese studio, experiencing flagging earnings as it's critically acclaimed PS3 blockbusters see less and less consumer interest drops PS3 support entirely to focus on the Wii. Sony announces a major pricedrop at E3 2009 and a Wiimote type controller, but the Wii steals the show with an unprecidented level of original support from Japanese devs. The Wii becomes a virtual monopoly in Japan, with Wii ports becoming the bulk of the major releases for the PS3 going forward. The 360 is tops in the US, and the Wii is the fastest growing market share.
Year 4: Microsoft announces the Xbox 720. It also announces that it was no longer support the Japanese market moving forward. They release impressive specs for the system, but refuse to show the controller until closer to launch. The Wii quickly moves into #2 in the US, and Sony becomes a worldwide third. Nintendo announces the codename of it's next system at E3 2010. Sony surprises everyone by not even talking about the PS4... amid speculation that increasing losses may have Sony corporate rethinking it's video game division.
Year 5:
Microsoft launches the 720. Though the controller is shaped like the original Xbox controller, it has no inherent buttons on it. Using new advances in organic semiconductors, the console defines buttons and controls in real time and varies from game to game. The buttons appear "painted on", but a force feedback system allows the user to feel as though he's pressing a button when one is touched. The button display system can also be used to display a small touch screen display on the middle of the controller.
Nintendo displays the Allso Wii... it's new system. The hardware specs resemble a souped up Xbox 360, but again, the news is in the controller. Keeping a Wii-esque nunchaku controller for basic input, the system also adds the first commercial neural interface. The standard model system displays on a television, but support is also announced for an optional stereoscopic headmounted display with headphones and mic that connects to the neural interface. While in most games the display only functions as an HDTV, Namco-Bandai jumps onboard early by announcing a fully-immersive MMORPG using the .Hack// license.
Sony shocks the world by announcing that their new system, the "PS For" (avoiding the expectation that a numerical sequel would have) will be a joint venture between Sony, Panasonic, and Philips. Essentially, the system is a smaller, cheaper version of the PS3 marketed primarily as a BluRay player slash PVR. Advances in storage and compression technology allow Sony to offer PS1 and PS2 games for download on their own download service. PS3 games will be rebranded as PSF games, although old PS3 titles will still play on the new system. The much smaller form factor and sensible price makes it a popular "second console" for Japanese gamers, though a large number of people buy the systems simply for the PVR features and BluRay.
Sammy Corporation announces it's own Japan-only system a year later (two years after the 720's launch). Through a licensing agreement with Microsoft, the system is basically a 720 with a smaller form factor (though for licensing reasons the two are not compatible). Sega continues to release "ports" for both system (which are really just regional conversions). In a deal to help finance the launch, Sega's PSF and Wii-line studios are spun off as a private company, 40 percent owned by Sammy, 40 percent owned by Nintendo, and 20 percent sold at an IPO. The studios have limited rights to use Sega's properties for new titles and also retain ownership of all of Sega's back catalog of games released on Sony or Nintendo systems.
Post by: wandering on April 28, 2006, 10:31:20 PM
If anything is going to cause the downfall of the mighty Wii, it's all this "satire."
Not that I'm going to tell people to stop, because I think things should be made fun of whenever possible. Except in this case. Because isn't that just a tad explicit for our forums?
Post by: MysticGohan on April 28, 2006, 10:43:35 PM
Can we name PGC to planetwiid.com? kinda sounds like weed:P yes I'm playing with the name, which I think is fun and rather amusing. Atleast it's getting talked about, perhaps that's what Nintendo wanted.
Post by: eljefe on April 28, 2006, 10:44:02 PM
Quote
Taking into account the controller and how unique it is. Interesting enough, I think some games could be perfect for Wii and might offer the best control of any platform. - Mr. Schappert
I agree
Wii will be a a resounding sucess.
Post by: Grant10k on April 28, 2006, 10:52:19 PM
Year two: Xbox360 finally comes out with it's killer app, it sells three copies. Wii's biggest flop, a game that displays only a blank screen, sells well over 17 copies.
Year three: Sony unveils the freedom controller, a wand-like controller with two position sensors on the end for x-tra accuracy.
Year three.1: Turns out Sony has been printing their own money for years, giant ants take over the corperation and turn it into a successful Norwegian shipping company.
Year four: I die happy.
Year five: I make millions on the art I sell after faking my own death.
Year six: Wii still Owns with a capital 'P', and I retire to play Super Smash Brothers: WiiLii (Melee, get it?)
Post by: nemo_83 on April 28, 2006, 11:38:41 PM
Post by: BigJim on April 29, 2006, 05:33:36 AM
Sales slow as Nintendo's marketing hasn't yet resonated as the next hip ipod "thing" outside of the gamer audience.
Sales pick up in early year 3 and gain steam due to a price drop, the brand being more identifiable, and gamers looking for a second system.
3rd part support is improved somewhat as both 360 and Wii take chunks out of Sony's dominant position.
The "second console" households increase modestly from their current 25% to 30-35% with Wii winning the bulk of that increase.
Approximate worldwide marketshare:
PS3: 40%
360: 30%
Wii: 30%
Blu-Ray fails to be adopted as the next HD standard, despite PS3's sales.
=====
There are 2 things I am interested in seeing...
1. How much Sony is broken from their current dominant position. (Not overtaken, but less dominant)
2. Analysts claim the console market will grow, but I don't see how when the consoles and games are at least 20% more expensive on 2 of the 3 platforms.
Post by: mantidor on April 29, 2006, 07:18:30 AM
Post by: EasyCure on April 29, 2006, 07:48:30 AM
any predictions on what games we actually will see, with features even?
lets make this interesting!!!
Post by: The Omen on April 29, 2006, 07:54:28 AM
Quote
If anything is going to cause the downfall of the mighty Wii, it's all this "satire."
Can I have a classic roast beef and cheese please? (saw your Wawa avatar)
My prediciton may surprise some. I think the Wii will be a huge success right out the door, and never look back. I don't know if it will beat out the PS3, but I think it will kill the 360. It's looking more and more to me that MS pulled a Dreamcast, and I think they may introduce a new Xbox sooner rather than later. I believe Nintendo will be a strong number 2, pressuring Sony for 1st throughout the generation.
Post by: Hostile Creation on April 29, 2006, 09:21:52 AM
Post by: EasyCure on April 29, 2006, 07:40:32 PM
when i started this thread i didnt have any predictions myself, just interested to see what you guys have to say.
if i had to make atleast ONE prediction, i'd say that Wii will be a second console to most. as much of a fanboy as i am i dont think as good as the concept of the machine is that it will take number one by storm. it could very easily set nintendo up for a number one spot in the next generation. i feel as if ps3's huge fanbase will pick it up out of curiosity (and the price will help too) and get hooked. granted they will pick up sony games first, but might not be able to resist the charm of any Wii exclusives. if nintendo could get half the number of the 'traditional' gamers that sony has, the 'non-gamer' could fill in the gaps and not outsell ps3 but make it pretty close (like the ds). it would create good compitition and feel like the old nintendo vs sega days when they were at war trying to out due eachother. that woudl be healthy for the industry.
if i had to make a far fetched prediction;
if everything from what i originally said happened, nintendo would release their 6th console with new unimaginable features AND include HD. its not important to be because i wont own an HD tv anytime soon but maybe with the profit they could make on Wii they would use it to create an innovative system that isnt a "gamecube ++" and be on par with sony's offerings, and still innovative.
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on April 29, 2006, 09:18:14 PM
Post by: Smash_Brother on April 29, 2006, 09:30:29 PM
Post by: Hostile Creation on April 29, 2006, 09:37:55 PM
Post by: Smash_Brother on April 29, 2006, 09:47:57 PM
"Nintendo brings VR home!" would certainly catch a LOT of eyes, gamer or not.
Post by: Hostile Creation on April 29, 2006, 09:58:28 PM
I think if they market it exactly as it is, people will be plenty interested. It's not even like it's a small step up, this is a huge difference, and people will recognize that.
Post by: Michael8983 on April 29, 2006, 10:25:39 PM
This will of course help dramatically in winning over Japanese third-party support that will help the Wii all over the globe.
So here's how I think it will all come out. The Wii will win in Japan with the PS3 a respectable second and of course the 360 is already out of the picture. In the US and Europe, the worst case scenereo is the Wii comes in third in a very tight race between the three. I think, outside of Japan, this will turn into the most evenly matched console war ever. Possibly with only a few million units seperating the first and third place. But with Japan, the Wii is sure to at least place second world-wide beating the 360. Even if the PS3 does sell the most units globally, it won't have anywhere near the dominance the PS2 had. Even if Sony does "win" it will still lose a massive amount of market-share.
I also predict that Nintendo will make the most profit off of its console which is what really counts.
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on April 30, 2006, 12:24:35 AM
Post by: wandering on April 30, 2006, 04:48:52 AM
Quote
Can I have a classic roast beef and cheese please? (saw your Wawa avatar)
You want fries with that? (I don't know if they'd actually ask if you wanted fries. I've only ever gotten soft pretzels.)
I've thought about it, and I'm going to predict the Wii machine will be number one world wide by the end of the console cycle. It's just too interesting and too affordable and too jam-packed with awesomeness for anyone to pass up, methinks. Hard to say how well the PS3 will do in comparison without knowing the price, although I think if all goes well for Sony the Wii and PS3 will be very close...with PS3 probably selling better at first. I'm going to predict third place for the 360.
Post by: Ceric on April 30, 2006, 06:37:28 AM
I believe that the Wii will have a strong launch in the number of units that get out. I think that Nintendo will have a reasonable amount of units ready for the get go. All pre-orders will be filled with 1 or 2 units extra for each store. Nintendo is relatively good at pegging these things. Then the next month there will be more coming in with possibly a different more complex color to fulfill the remaining demand. At that point Nintendo will have some momentum.
Now one of 2 things will happen. Nintendo will learn from there mistakes and take the ember they made and stoke it to a flame or they'll botch it again and lose the momentum.
Now the PS3 on the other hand is just not going to be able to produce enough units to catch up with the demand and probably won't until 6 months after the initial launch. (Lets face it. God of War 2 is coming to the PS2. That's a system seller right there if it's half as good as the original. Plus its made by Sony itself. Logic would dictate that since you announced it so close to you next gen console that you would leverage it to be a launch title.) Sony can't take as much of a financial hit as it would need to get enough units out initially. If Blu-ray becomes the format of choice then the PS3 will have more going for it after demand can be fulfilled.
Now, assuming that the PS3 and Wii launch at the exact same time, we are 6 months done the road. Wii has more units out because it was able to fulfill the demand and a lower price mark. PS3 finally has enough units out to fulfill demand and will if not already take the leading spots in units sold. This quarter Sony will claim a good launch but a net loss and Nintendo will show a modest profit. The most likely combinations of duel system is still 360 and Wii. The people like webcomic writers will enjoy the Wii but still hang on the 360 because it's rebellious and has a good social system intact. If Nintendo could maintain moment with good solid monthly, or more frequent, game releases on the Wii, any game, they have themselves in a good position to hold dominance. If not they will end up being another Gamecube, a niche player. PS3 is stilled in practice a niche system even though it is still herald as the leader. Adoption is slow due to price and the lack of dedicated PS3 games because the PS2 still has a larger market share and is a known developement plaltform, we saw some of this with the NES/SNES transition.
Coming into E3. Nintendo will work it's E3 magic. MS will offer a more compact sleeker version of the 360 with wireless built in. This is in response to technology prices dropping and the wider availabiliy of Wireless networks because of the Wii, DS, and PSP. MS also announces a portable gaming device based off of its now thoroughly debug Windows Mobile Platform. Learning from Sony MS will use a variant of Flash for games and also include the PDA functionalities because they get them for free. Unlike Nintendo and Sony though MS is releasing a Spec to allow companies like Dell to manafacture these units. This essentially becomes the MS portable and is posed to be somewhere inbetween a PSP and a DS. More powerful then both but with Touchscreen ability. Sony on the other hand releases information on a total redo of the PSP that addresses its fundamental ergonomic problems and will be the focus of the show. That being said Sony, in an attempt to do damage control, will make sure they have a string of there strongest franchises showing up and teasers of the ones that won't be ready for a while, I'm look at you FF:XIII or FF:VII redo, whether the teasers actually become anything but teasers is to be seen. All of these will be coming for the PS3. In fact after a rough start Sony is going to try to give the impression that every game coming out is being developed for the PS3. In actuallity once you stop wearing you Sony Rose Colored Glasses there are still a large number of PS2 games that are coming during the year. Nintendo, not having the same problem since GCN support seemed to dry up a while back, is happily announcing new and innovative things for the Wii. Nintendo will focus on the Wii and DS and by this time how they can get along. GBA, while still receiving games, is left out in the cold. Its too soon to announce its successor but we will probably hear nibbles by the end of the year. During this E3, if Nintendo kept the momentum, we will hear some surprise announcements. One of them being that Square will be re-releasing, again, all of the FF series on the Rev. Either through the virtual console or compilation discs, any of the post snes ones. Sony not liking were this is going. Nintendo talks about how its blue ocean strategy has been taking the world by storm. Also we are told that work has started on the Wii version of Zelda and that its going to touch its roots and be based off of the Original, wooden sword and all. Of course it will be enhanced. As of now Nintendo is seen as 1st place only because Sony didn't have a strong sort. People will still think that Nintendo is in the last place stigma, though facts don't support it. Also still I LOVE HALO 2. Which is ironic because the Wii has a handful of games that are up for reevalution of there ranking to go from M to AO, in particular a very realistic hospital simulation and a mind bender like Eternal Darkness though at this time they are close to release pending the rating change.
I have to go work but I do have more ironically. I hope you Enjoy reading this. It's a little large and covers the industry in the whole but I don't think you can make a good prediction of you don't give what you think the landscape will be.
Edit: Nintendo will also report at E3 its intention to bring some coordination and learning software the to table.
A couple years from now: The Wii is enjoying a niche as a education tool and rehabilitation aid. Who would of thought? Even though games make a good portion of Nintendo's sales. There is more hardware being sold to corporation and government then individuals due to unique training software.
Post by: IceCold on April 30, 2006, 11:54:21 AM
Post by: couchmonkey on April 30, 2006, 12:10:36 PM
I think this is a really interesting and hard-to-predict generation due to lots of strange moves from EVERY company.
Microsoft: Launched 360 really early. Will it grab the lead and hold on, or will it look like outdated tech next to PS3? Clearly the system is already a failure in Japan, and even if Sony were to drop the ball, Nintendo would catch it way before MS. Kind of a shame, as I feel Microsoft has done a pretty good job over there, even getting some big exclusive Japanese RPGs, but then again, I don't mind seeing Microsoft fail...at anything. Still, I do think Microsoft has true potential to beat Sony in Europe and North America if it has a better selection of games and a lower price. It would be VERY good for MS if Halo 3 were ready within the next 11 months.
Sony: May have the most expensive system (though PSM is claiming it will cost the same as the deluxe XBox 360), and they're also launching a year after Microsoft. On the other hand, you've got Blu-Ray playback. I've said it before and I'll say it again: I don't think the public is ready for a format change yet, but if Sony can actually launch it at the same price as the 360, then the feature is free, so who cares? And it could be a huge selling point in a few years, who knows.
Nintendo: Is going completely nuts. Nintendo has the most potential to fail miserably OR take first place by a landslide. It all depends on whether the company can really attract the non-gaming public. Actually, even if it can't, the system is still unique enough on its own that Nintendo could possibly see a big improvement over the GameCube. As a hardcore gamer, I find the Wii concept WAY more interesting than either of the others, which are stuck on an awfully predictable path of incremental improvements.
In the end, I have a feeling PS3 and Xbox 360 will see a much closer race than last time, with Microsoft beating Sony in North America. Nintendo could be anywhere on the map from distant third to unstoppable first, but I suspect it may find itself almost tied with the other two: losing a lot of current fans, but more than making up for it with non-gamers and curious hardcore and casual gamers. It depends heavily on this Christmas. In that time people will form their first impressions of all three systems, and we'll know whether or not Sony and Nintendo's launch games are any good, and whether or not Microsoft was able to answer the launches with a good second-generation lineup.
Post by: Hostile Creation on April 30, 2006, 12:20:56 PM
I recall some Nintendo employee (I forget who, Reggie or Iwata or someone) mentioning how the Gamecube had a dry spell after launch, and how that was a big mistake and they wouldn't let it happen again.
Can't recall from where, but I'm fairly certain I'm not making it up, so that's reassuring.
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on April 30, 2006, 02:38:59 PM
Post by: v00doo_child on April 30, 2006, 03:09:43 PM
Post by: nemo_83 on April 30, 2006, 03:18:18 PM
"What next generation really needs is depthening the gameplay experience. I want free standard online gaming. I believe the controller should become better at simulating our wants in the game. I would suggest a controller that is not only conforming and angled to fit the hands but also does more than any controller has ever done. A screen could become standard just as joysticks have. The left side of the pad would be your normal controller with a trigger and a shoulder button. Also a joypad and dpad. The right side should be a flight stick modified and attached to the left side with multiple functioning such as diagonal movements and turning."
"The camera used with the PS2 has given me lots of ideas for controlling basically any game with combat using the hands in the game. The system could use the camera in a next gen system to track the movement of the hand without the use of lightgun technology. Imagine detaching the flight joysick from the rest of the controller and it being the tracer point that the camera follows and uses in a game like Zelda or Soul Calibur allowing you to swing the sword. Perhaps this idea would work best if the controller for a proposed next gen game console were actually two controllers (one held in each hand) which the system tracks as the player moves his/her hands for sword swiping or punching or aiming a gun. This two sperate prongs idea could be used to allow for each prong to be used as a joystick with tilt technology giving the gamer two flight sticks instead of a camera tracing technology. What do you guys prefer?"
"Instead of hair and grass effects in games we will get dvd recorders. Instead of improved controllers we will get outrageous harddrives for what? MP3s? Pirating games? Cutting out the middle man and rentals with free demos for download instantly. Downloading old 2d games legally from say Nintendo or Sega?
The industry needs another revolution that can change the way we play not what we play on the machine."
-2003
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on April 30, 2006, 03:39:18 PM
Post by: EasyCure on April 30, 2006, 05:08:14 PM
nintendo would be able to benifit from this...
if the two systems did launch at the same time, ps3 could sell out, but there will still be millions who won't have one due to shortages. it could take months to restock so many ps3's, and parents not wanting to dissapoint their kids for christmas would probably pick up a Wii and a few games just to have something. If they were already going to spend the estimated $500+ for ps3 (and atleast ONE game), they could very well use that for a Wii that could launch at a max price of $250, leaving another $250 they were going to spend on one system with one game in their pockets. Now since im talking about america, and supposing this is a mother/father buying this for their only child, you just know they will spoil their kid, so that extra $250 could go into a few games, maybe even an extra controller or two. hell they'd have to if the kid was expecting a ps3 for xmas, he would need all the extras he could especially if he didnt know what Wii was. that alone could put nintendo head to head with sony, or atlast give them the advantage to catch up.
as for japan, im sure plenty of buzz is stirring. they are eating up the DS over there and all its 'non-games'. there was another thread in the Funhouse i believe where someone mentioned a japanese arcade game where the player basically gives someone a rectal exame with a giant controller in the shape of a pointing hand (its an arcade game).
just imagine what.....actually wait, i dont want to imagine a Wiimote being used for that game...needless to say it would be huge in japan. im gonna barf now
Post by: The Omen on April 30, 2006, 05:36:24 PM
Post by: IceCold on April 30, 2006, 08:37:15 PM
- Sony introduces the WiiS4
- The Vancouver Canucks win the Stanley Cup
EDIT: Damn, these bullets really don't work well..
Post by: nemo_83 on April 30, 2006, 09:27:30 PM
Post by: IceCold on May 07, 2006, 10:48:20 AM
QuoteWhat Is In A Name?
Originally posted by: Hostile Creation
I think we need to change the name of the website to planetwiian.com.
Post by: BigJim on May 08, 2006, 07:25:07 PM
The PlayStation 3 serves too many masters. It has become a $600 mecha-beast stuffed full of features that every other chief wanted incorporated into the device. While the system will be a product of envy, Sony prices themselves out of being able to attain their PS2 glory, and isn't even a desireable 2nd console because the price will take years to reach $300 or less.
360: 40%
PS3: 30%
Wii: 30%
Post by: wandering on May 08, 2006, 07:30:45 PM
Quote
The PlayStation 3 serves too many masters. It has become a $600 mecha-beast stuffed full of features that every other chief wanted incorporated into the device. While the system will be a product of envy, Sony prices themselves out of being able to attain their PS2 glory, and isn't even a desireable 2nd console because the price will take years to reach $300 or less.
And yet the Wii won't be able to do any better sales wise?
Post by: BigJim on May 08, 2006, 07:44:25 PM
