I'm going to go for the long shot; November 20th 2011, at $349.99.
I know what Iwata said, I just don't read it as meaning it can't come out this year. There are more reasons other then the system's not coming out this fiscal year to not yet estimate it's profits. Whether they are still looking at the price point, unsure of quantities available for a holiday launch, if they can even hit a holiday launch, plus it always looks better to revise estimated profits up, rather than down, mid-year.
All that said an early 2012, say February to June, launch would not surprise me in the least.