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Mafia LXXXV: Metroid Dread. Game Over! Postgame Breakdown and Analysis Thread.
Khushrenada:
Now I am taking a break from the... breakdown. Will post how GK was denied two other ways from pulling off a win and a bit more glimpse from behind the scenes for the final few days.
nickmitch:
I was really convinced Lucario was mafia up until I got invited into the townie alliance. This was definitely a hard to read game throughout, but very fun! I'd be interested in doing another one with these rules.
pokepal148:
--- Quote from: Khushrenada on April 06, 2020, 11:02:59 PM ---Let's keep this breakdown going while food cooks.
Day 2: GK comes close to winning Part 1.
For whatever reason, Day 2's vote is left wide open and no one wants to take command of it. Pokepal148 gets a bit of redemption in it by correctly deducing BeautifulShy is Samus although some of his reasons for that were incorrect. He also correctly votes for Stevey a mafia member.
--- End quote ---
I mean I don't see how I was supposed to know that BShy locked in her kill way earlier than she should have. Honestly all things considered I basically had her pegged almost perfectly. She even admitted that she wasn't aware that the Doctor could protect me from the vote even though it wound up not being a factor.
MASB actually reached out to me claiming that BeautifulShy was Samus but he refused to give any kind of reason or divulge his identity so I basically disregarded it. Later when I reached the same conclusion on my own I assumed that MASB was the Space Pirate Commando since he refused to confirm whether or not he had an investigative role, even when I explicitly asked him.
I actually consider GK not hitting Bshy that day to be a big mistake on his part. Next to me who you should assume is being protected by the doctor based on the results of day 1, since only an idiot would leave the Metroid holder unprotected, Samus is basically the second big target that needs to be taken out, since doing so would give him a kill option every night, so me publicly listing BeautifulShy as most likely to be Samus should have made her an easy pick for who the hit target should be.
This was a bit of an off game for me overall. I don't know if it's because this is the 6th game in a row I've played where I had some kind townie power role so I basically thought I could play it like I did the last 5 games or if it's because of stuff at work but I just made alot of mistakes. I misread the rules alot and generally didn't think things through.
I voted for Bshy on day 2 because I'm an idiot who was thinking in general Mafia terms of 'Bshy is the killer and needs to be eliminated' without considering that it would have been better to kill her off on day 3 so we could cancel the killer's kill than. I knew at that point that Stevey was a bit suspicious as well because as we discussed last time Stevey is just a really easy read but honestly I was just going for a vedetta vote because Bshy took too long to make up her mind on who to vote for, I didn't want to join her vote against Steef because I loved his roleplaying so much, and I needed to get to bed.
RABicle:
The critical mistake the Federation made was not killing every night. Why investigate? There's no 'wasted' kill. You have to eliminate everyone. And the vote break in day two by Kraid should've been the big sign to the Mafia (and the killer) that Steef was Kraid. If anyone was being saved by a townie power, they should assume they're valuable. And the fact the mafia knew the otehr option was their guy should've made ti a really safe call.
Anyway. I shouldn't tlak. I really did just tune out for the first two days and only paid attention from day three onwards. Pokepal and Steef are my picks for MVP, pokepal for drawing fire and in my opinion, doing the right thing to get the ball rolling for a townie alliance. Steef for securing the Metroid for himself.
Oh and sorry to BShy if I seemed inconsiderate. The 'lol' was me laughing that the vote was now easy.
BeautifulShy:
So a few things if you compare my hit list and the roles for them up above. I really could of taken out a good portion of the townies.
Listed roles...
Mother Brain - Map - MASB
Ridley - Energy Tank - Lucario
Kraid - Super Missiles - Steefosaurus
Omega Pirate - Power Bomb - NWR_Insanolord
Townie - Metroid - pokepal148
Townie - Morph Ball - RABicle
Townie - Missile - ShyGuy
Townie - Charge Beam - ejamer
Townie - Ice Beam - nickmitch
Townie - Grappling Beam - Luigi Dude
Townie - Torizo Statue - Mop it up
Townie - X-Parasite - thatguy
Deleter - Power Bomb - TheFleece
Commando - X-Ray Visor - Mr. Bungle
Marine - Scan Visor - Stevey
Trooper - Speedboost - Stratos
Samus - Phazon Suit - BeautifulShy
Dark Samus - Varia Suit - GK
My hit list by days...
Day 1. thatguy-X-Parasite
Day 3. Lucario or Steefosaurus
Day 4 or 5. Insanolord
Day 5 or 6. ShyGuy
Day 6 or 7. TheFleece or Steefosaurus
Knowing what I know now I would have gone after steefosaurus on Day 3. Because Kraid had such a impact over the game I knew if there was ties going on over the past few days I could essentually have two kills a night. One from a random tie breaker kill and then one from my hit. Insanolord would be next and I would essentually if there was a tie I could have 3 kills that night and then with ShyGuy I would have gotten a missile. which I think nullifies a role so I guess at that point I could nulify someone who I thought was Mother brain or one of the scan visors to at least make the game last a little longer so I can narrow things down more. The Fleece I figured he was bad news but I figured I had a chance of the Mafia going after inactive players or trying to find Mother Brain for me.
I partly blame the Day 2 inaction on Fleece but also myself because I was trying to edit posts so close to the end of the day but by the time I was about to send my post through the thread was locked and I felt inputing a post after the lock even though I still had mod powers would not be right so I went with inaction on changing my vote. So yeah me being honest to myself and not entering that post after the lock and waiting on Fleece on a response I think cost me the game. As to Day 3 yeah I was dealing with so much crap that week with stress and having this role and trying to figure out how I should play. I do admit I didn't exactly play like I usually did and send out mass PMs to everyone on Day 1 and that may have cost me but on the other side I guess I was searched Day 1 so it really didn't matter. I guess if there was one thing that I would of changed is I wouldn't of been so public about my role and just hint if Dark Samus/ Samus or the Deleter wants to look at my notes then contact me. Really only one person did ask to see my notes and that was Fleece but at the time I didn't know Fleeces role but one thing stood out to me in messages was on Day 2 Fleece said Steefosaurus was gone no matter what he did. That to me meant that he didn't care who died just that they did. So that signaled to me Dark Samus or Mafia.
But yeah one other thing I wanted to comment on was Rabicle commenting on my use of they when referring to Fleece and thinking I was talking about Fleece and Mr. Bungle. Yeah when I go with they nowadays I am usually talking gender neutral terms and if I say they when only talking about one person. If I am talking about multiple people I will state a certain amount of people.
Oh one last thing. I don't know who noticed but the last time I was the killer I had a hit list that I posted at the end of the game and I was going to go in reverse of it somewhat while inserting the new players who didn't play in that last game.
So yeah I was thinking about using this list instead.
So if I used that list then things would of ended like this.
Thatguy Set Day 1 X-Parasite
Mop it up-Torozo Statue
The Fleece Deleter
pokepal148- Townie- Metroid
Steefosaurus Kraid
Lucario- Ridley
Stratos- Trooper Speed Booster
ejamer- townie charge beam
Luigi Dude- Grappling Beam
Insanolord- Omega Pirate- Power Bomb
GK- Dark Samus any items from them.
Nickmitch- townie- Ice Beam
Stevey- Marine scan visor
Mr. Bungle-Commando X-Ray Visor
ShyGuy- Townie-Missle
RABicle-Morph Ball
MASB- Mother Brain
So looking at how things went I possibly could of gotten the Metroid on Day 2 If I voted had a chance to change my posts before the lock. I wouldn't of acted like a ditz and flew off the handle like that and I would of just went on like I was going and trying to piece things together like I usually do.
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