Topic: PS VITA will it disrupt the 3DS?

[Spak-Spang]

So the PS VITA has launched in Japan...and I am really curious to see how it takes off in Japan.  But more importantly, I am waiting to see the world's response to the new system.


What will this system do to the 3DS?  It just seems to be a much more complete system...and you definitely are paying for that...but with all the blunders of the 3DS...is Nintendo going to have a difficult fight with the VITA? 


I actually think the answer is YES.   And I am really worried about Nintendo's position in the handheld market.  If Nintendo stumbles and loses a single generation to the handheld market battle, they may not be able to recover.  That would put them number 2 or 3 in both console and portable market. 


I understand business is about profits, but it is also about image, and Nintendo's image has hardware makers has been dropping since the Gamecube, with the exception nobody can touch them on the portable market...what if that isn't true this generation?  Will they recover next generation....or will people assume Nintendo is losing touch with the market?

[Chozo Ghost]

It certainly does feel like the 3DS went off half cocked. It is obvious Nintendo rushed it out to give it a year head start over the Vita, but at the cost of obvious things like the dual analog being left out. It needed more time in the oven. But that is too late now. The die has been cast, and all anyone can do now is hope for the best.

[Spak-Spang]

I actually don't want to sound too pestimistic.  Because, Nintendo does have that year head start, and a cheaper price point...which will help. 

I am actually not 100% sure the lack of a second analog stick is that horrible.  Other design decisions seem questionable though. 

In the end, I just hope the best for Nintendo and actually Sony this time also.  The handheld market may be facing the biggest threats today with the tablet becoming popular.  the big problem with the tablet is it will hurt traditional portable gaming if it takes over. 

I can honestly say though that the PS VITA is more innovative in features than the 3DS...and in the end, that may come back in haunt Nintendo as they are usually the more innovative.

[Caterkiller]

We'll see in the end. The DS brand still seems to be pretty strong. These are the kinds of things that were said all over the place when PSP was revealed. DS blew it out of the water, but of course things could change this time around.

Problem with Sony is they don't have a pokemon.

[SixthAngel]

I don't see how its going to get enough traction to overtake the 3DS after it has a year advantage, a cheaper price, and the Nintendo games that have defined handheld consoles.
The games I've seen seem to be psp redux with a version of Uncharted leading the way.
Graphics are better if you don't care for 3D but it didn't help last gen and this time they are down one bulletpoint graphics wise.  Considering the lower budget for handheld games in general graphics seems to be one of the least important things.
It does have touch as well so it won't be left out on that front though.  Touch games won't let Nintendo bring in things that vita can't do but it isn't exactly special in the slightest since touch is now ubiquotous.  It will probably lead to quite a few ports of 2d games going to both systems.  We will honestly probably be seeing Nintendo focus more on the non-touch abilities this gen though because they will want to differential themselves from smartphones.

The design of the Vita is also aimed squarely at the typical customers Sony has gone for with the psp which means not women and not your casual players.  Sony themselves said something about eventually trying to get more women into the system later in its life.  When over 50% of the DS sales were to women this is almost like ceding before you begin.

With the price how much is Sony losing on this thing?  I thought they were really hurting financially already but they obviously aren't doing that bad if they keep up this strategy.

Regardless of you whether it succeeds or not, disrupt is not the right word here.  I can see them competing but I don't see anything in vita that is disruptive.

[ejamer]

VITA seems to target a (slightly) different market, based on pricing and the games being released for it. Because of that, I'm not sure that VITA will have appreciable effect on the 3DS market at all. If anything this looks a lot like the DS/PSP race all over again - Nintendo offered a more mass-market friendly console and the sales figures reflected that, but in the end both were successful systems with plenty of good games.


That said, fanboys on both sides will be quick to declare victory without caring about facts or figures. That's how these things work.

[nickmitch]

Problem with Sony is they don't have a pokemon.

That's no big deal. I know a bunch of guys that are giving them out for free.

[SixthAngel]

Pokemon is big but it's one of many.

Mario Kart was just released and if it is anything like the DS version it is always going to be there getting sales and drawing attention for the rest of the system's life.  It's such a strong series that the Vita is basically dead in the water directly competing against it
Nintendo has games like that for many of the popular handheld genres.
Any game Sony puts up against Pokemon, Mario (LBP), any of the popular Mario _________games, Zelda,  or even Animal Crossing, Wario Ware (created a genre) and Nintendogs is going to get crushed unless Sony can somehow reinvent the genre.  Nintendo even has some in smaller genres like turn based strategy, and handheld rhythm.  It's one of the reasons why Sony brings console style games to handhelds.  Not only is it what they already know but moving into the other area makes them compete directly with games by Nintendo that absolutely dominate and overshadow the competition.  The Monster Hunter type game was one of the few really popular ones that Sony controlled last gen and it's already gone.

[nickmitch]

Sony's strategy seems to be bringing the console experience to the handheld. Nintendo's focus has always been trying to make the handheld experience unique. It'll be really interesting to see how this plays out since Sony pretty much has perfected their strategy and added a differentiater to the experience in the rear touch panel.
They also have one edge on Nintendo basically saying not having dual analogue on a handheld is a mistake and Sony having it right there from the jump.

[SixthAngel]

I don't think dual analog is going to be a problem.  They already have the biggest japanese game that uses dual analog with their attachment.  (and I expect the next revision to have it standard since they have aleady released an attachment like this.)

Leaving out how well console style games sell on handhelds, most other big games that use dual analog are all big western games. These are companies that historically never give a **** about handhelds outside of the random quick cash in branded game.  I don't see these companies changing this strategy because of Vita.  They may try to shove a few down ports on there if it isn't too much work (I'm not convinced it will be easy so if they come I expect them to be late) but I don't see the main dual analog developers actually making games specfically for the system.

[leahsdad]

Here's the thing that I think will be interesting to watch:

You can describe the 3DS's launch as Nintendo holding back its big guns (3D land, Ocarina, Mario Kart) until post launch, and the portable not picking up steam until then.  But the Vita is completely backwards.  From launch day, they've got their 4 biggest IP's on sale:  Uncharted, Resistance, LBP, Wipeout.  Well, maybe not Wipeout.  But still, there they are.   Vita will probably do well in its 1st month, no doubt, with this lineup.  But....if sales of the unit start to wane, Sony's problem is that they have absolutely nothing waiting in the wings, nothing in reserve that they can put out.   What can Sony possibly do to reinvigorate sales come next holiday season if their sales drop off a cliff?  A price cut?  I think that helped the 3DS, but not nearly as much as 3D land and Mario Kart. 

Of course, my argument is slightly weak, because to be honest, none of Sony's main development studios are actually developing these games.  Naughty Dog did not make that Uncharted game.  Imsomniac did not develop that Resistance game.  I don't know about LBP, though I also don't care.   In Nintendo's case, at least, EAD and Retro worked on Mario Kart and EAD Tokyo did 3D land.

[TJ Spyke]

I don't know about LBP, though I also don't care.

You are correct. Wikipedia says it is being developed by 3 studios: XDev (which is part of SCEE Liverpool), Double Eleven (this is their first title), and Tarsier Studios (whose only actual games were the mediocre Rag Doll Kung Fu: Fists of Plastic for PSN and Desert Diner for Windows, they also did DLC for the PS3 LBP games).

[Caterkiller]

I should have said they don't have a single "pokemon." As in Nintendo has many franchises(like some of you stated above) that have sold amazingly well throughout the DS's life time and I don't think Sony has one. Would Monster Hunter even count any more? Did have super legs like Nintendo's games?

[Luigi Dude]

Considering Sony has already surrendered the West to Nintendo by not launching this fall in America and Europe and Iwata has already cut off the Vita's legs in Japan by getting Monster Hunter for the 3DS, the answer is no, the Vita wont be a treat at all.

Hell Vita will be lucky to even sell anything close to what the PSP sold considering the PSP launched against a very weak DS back in 2005 while the Vita will be launching against a very strong 3DS in 2012.  Doesn't matter how good Uncharted: Golden Abyss turns out to be, getting a 3DS with Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 is going to be the much better deal to the overwhelming majority of buyers.

[TJ Spyke]

The PSP was pretty much kept alive in Japan thanks solely to Monster Hunter (for example, when a MH game was released in December 2010, it boosted PSP sales from 75K to 323K). If Capcom keeps the series 3DS exclusive, or even just timed-exclusive, I don't think Vita will stand a chance there.

[SixthAngel]

The Monster Hunter thing really shows how they have improved their 3rd party relationships.  They took the competition's biggest game before it even arrived.  They were probably laying down the deal for this back when MHTri came out for Wii.

Thinking about this and DQ Wii/Wii:U is giving me the idea that they are actually ahead of the game on the third party front moving into the future.

They basically took the two biggest non-multiplat third party games and brought them to their next gen systems.
These are obviously the biggest in Japan but I frankly can't think of any big third party games in the west that don't go to everything that can physically run it.  Getting one or two big third party exclusives in the new handheld and console gens could be essentiall getting all the big third party exclusives.

[Spak-Spang]

Why is Monster Hunters going to be 3DS exclusive though?  We know the Monster Hunter games for the 3DS have been ports mostly...and it would be easy for them to port it to VITA. 

Yes, the year head start is huge...and it will be hard to overcome, but the initial lineup for the VITA is good, if not great...and that means they will have other big games for the system to come for winter.

I hope you are right.  I want portable gaming to stay cheaper than console gaming, and I want the markets to be differentiated, which I think Nintendo does well.  If Nintendo can keep some big guns ready for next year to combat the VITA launch...and that may be the Wii U in some measure...then Nintendo will be doing good.

[Chozo Ghost]

Plus most of the Vita games will eventually get ported over to the PS3/PS4 with upgraded features, so there is less reason to own a VITA as far as exclusive games goes. If you look at the PSP there were some God of War games that were PSP exclusive for awhile, but later on Sony took them and upgraded them to HD and whatever and then released them on the PS3. So you don't even need a PSP in order to play them. I'm sure this is how it will be for alot of games on the Vita as well. Uncharted Golden Abyss in particular looks like the sort of game Sony would port to their home console at some point down the road.

[SixthAngel]

Why is Monster Hunters going to be 3DS exclusive though?

I kind of assumed that they would have announced another version already if it was coming to Vita.  If they were making one Sony would be begging them to.  They even released a trailer for 4 before Vita came out and only mentioned the 3DS.  That was their biggest title on the psp, it had to sting.

My personal theory is that Nintendo is partnering with them to release the 3DS dual analog revision with MH4 partially bundled and released the same day.  They have 3 and the addon already in the wild building the userbase and then this becomes the title to own for the new revision.

No matter what happens, the key points are that it is no longer PS exclusive and a version went to Nintendo hardware first to build up the userbase before the Vita.  Even if it goes multiplat eventually it completely takes away Sony's biggest weapon.  Sony needs to get some other games to take its place.  Maybe something like LBP or Uncharted will be huge hit instead but I doubt it.

[Killer_Man_Jaro]

The long-term viability for the Playstation Vita outside of Japan depends on whether it can avoid taking on the same identity as the PSP - the home for console-type experiences on the go. It needs to be a bankable platform for smaller games based around quick play sessions, or very experimental games with graphics not necessarily aimed at lots of detail and polygons. In other words, more games that are suited to a handheld device.

The PSP was plagued by this faulty idea that the way forward was to replicate an experience already on consoles, with games like Resistance, Gran Turismo, Killzone, God of War, LittleBigPlanet, ModNation Racers etc. all having a go and seemingly falling short because they weren't really designed for the system.

The launch window line-up for Vita is somewhat encouraging, what with quirky titles like Sound Shapes or Escape Plan. Having said that, the possibility of it falling into the same trap is a very real one. Just like in 2004 at the launch of the PSP, this is being pitched as the cutting-edge handheld that's trying to do exactly what your home console PlayStation does. When I see in the pipeline an Uncharted, a Resistance, an LBP, a Modnation Racers, I shake my head, not because I think any of them will be bad games, but because it's happening again. If the Vita is going to compete in this market, it cannot follow that same path. These established franchises shouldn't just be recreated - the game design has to adapt to the platform, or at least do things a little differently.

Hell, I don't know. I'm not an analyst, and I might be talking out my arse. From my perspective, it just seems like history may repeat itself if they think that essentially downscaling PS3 titles is the software that this system needs.

[NWR_insanolord]

The only reason Monster Hunter was as big a deal for the PSP as it was is that the DS wasn't capable of running it. While the Vita certainly packs more horsepower than the 3DS, I'm not sure that edge is all that useful in terms of making games that work well on handhelds; there isn't really anything you can't do on the 3DS unless you're depending on multi-touch.

The problem for Sony is that Nintendo has a long history of success in the handheld arena and a significant head start, which has led to a lower price and a more diverse library. Based on last time around, Nintendo is also a lot better at differentiating their console and handheld offerings. So really, as it stands right now, it doesn't look like Sony has any significant advantage over Nintendo, and thus will have their work cut out for them if they want to win (which I don't think they really care about; I think they're more than happy being a distant second with a healthy profit margin).

[ejamer]

Why is Monster Hunters going to be 3DS exclusive though?

Knowing how Capcom loves to port and re-release games, I have no doubt that VITA will get Monster Hunter games eventually. The only question is when.

...
No matter what happens, the key points are that it is no longer PS exclusive and a version went to Nintendo hardware first to build up the userbase before the Vita. 
...

This is a huge point that deserves to be repeated. Monster Hunter was HUGE for PSP, and having 3DS get the franchise (and presumably get it first by a reasonable amount of time) could be a very big deal for sales and system adoption.

Seeing Metal Gear Solid, Resident Evil, and a pair of original Square-Enix RPGs coming to 3DS in 2012 is also interesting. These are the type of mature, console-experience games that DS typically missed last generation - yet a bunch of them are coming out on 3DS close to the VITA launch period.

Will these games sell well on 3DS this generation? (Monster Hunter in Japan says "yes".) How many will be ported to VITA, and how long will that take? What effect (if any) will these games on 3DS/VITA sales?

[Chozo Ghost]

The problem for Sony is that Nintendo has a long history of success in the handheld arena

The same was also true with consoles, but Sony managed to snatch that away. We must never forget that, because that's the danger that the handheld arena also faces. Its naive to think Nintendo is invincible. What happened before in consoles could happen again in handhelds.

The PSP was the strongest adversary a Nintendo handheld has ever faced. It did better than the Gamegear, Atari Lynx, and everything else combined. If the Vita can build on that success it could be a serious threat.

[NWR_insanolord]

There's a reason I didn't just say that one part you quoted. You definitely need more than a history of success, but it's still an important thing to have. The history of success is a big part of why Nintendo managed to hang in there as well as they did with the N64 despite its issues. Sony had clear advantages in that era, with a CD format that made development cheaper and a much friendlier approach to third parties, who were sick of Nintendo jerking them around. As I said in the part you didn't quote, it doesn't appear that the Vita has anything like that going for it, with its one advantage, better specs, not likely to be that practically useful.

[Ceric]

I'm trying to think but, I think the only time there has been the same version of Monster Hunter on different systems was Portable 3rd with the HD version.  MH is like WoW or Madden, you always want to be on the most recent. Anyways...

The Vita price and everything I think it will go to the same place as the Neo-Geo and PSP did.  Which was Bling.  I also think the DS series of product seperation of Touch Screen and Game Screen lends itself well.  The Back touch has the potential but we'll have to see how its implemented in games.