Topic: more rumors of Nintendo launching in 2004

[ultrafamicom]

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lol reposting entire articles is against the rules lol

http://www.mcvuk.com/html/news/story.jsp?newsId=1926268

 

[Ian Sane]

Gen3 console platforms?  Um, this is the FIFTH generation post-crash.  This site already has lost credibility with me.  Fun fact: the Sony Playstation was not the first console ever made.

Anyway if MS or Nintendo are planning on launching in 2004 than they've sure done a good job of covering up a product that's due in less than a year.  It seems unlikely that two new consoles and a new Gameboy would remain under wraps this close to launch.  Plus there's no advantage to launching in 2004 (aside from a new Gameboy to fight the PSP) so unless MS and Nintendo have both gone nuts they aren't going to jump the gun.

It would really suck if this was true though.  The whole advantage of consoles over PCs is that a console lasts you for at least 5 years without any new hardware being bought.  If console lives start shrinking to 3 years then it's going to get expensive to keep up.  Such a practice would likely cause another crash.

[ultrafamicom]

Ian, i completely agree with you on all points.    

there is no freaking way two new consoles and a new gameboy will launch next year.

I think Nintendo will have one of its new products launched next year but that will most likely be the device that is neither the new console nor the new Gameboy. you know the hardware+software product.

I don't think the current gen consoles will get snuffed out next year. they will have 4 year lives minimum, probably 5 years, but not 3 years.

[nemo_83]

The logic behind launching early is that most people this gen that are going to own a Cube by the end will have one by right around December 25 of this year.  After that point console sales will drop through the bucket for all three companies, particularly the one that sales the fewest consoles this holiday.  Sony's sales may decline slower than the other two because they are the most recognizable console on the market and most likely to break down leaving you with a library of games in need of a second or third PS2.  Nintendo may sale a ton of Cubes this holiday, and a gillion GBSPs, but next year people are either going to be looking to buy a next gen console or a second console from the three available now.  Nintendo could ride it out untill at least 05 to release a year earlier than Sony.  Releasing before Sony is a bad idea.  Their plan should be to launch directly against it.  No matter what N5 should be backwards compatible with Cube especially if it is released this year or next so the Cube games can stay in development and the Cube audience keeps growing.  Most of the people who own a Cube are traditionally Nintendo buyers and would also buy the N5.

The freshness of the N5 allows NIntendo to reestablish themselves with the oldschool quality and a broader market image.  Not enough people have bought Cubes to warant continuing development upon them past 04.  If the N5 were to be successful then it would pass the Cube's sales in merely months which basically translates to the Cube being a PR failure that cannot be fixed.  The price cut may lead Cube sales to dominate for the rest of the generation, but that would still only mean second place for NIntendo.  NIntendo still makes greater profit from its smaller userbase than Sony makes off of their outrageously swollen market share.  And Nintendo owns 98% of the handheld market which is much larger than the fragmented console market and much much more profitable and afordable.  Nintendo still to this day holds a much great piece of the gaming pie than anyone in the industry despite the popular opinion that they are dominated by Sony simply because of Sony's success in the home market.

If NIntendo releases before Sony though they have the option of deciding for the audience that dvd playback and other expensive features are not needed to play the best games in the bizz, pluss online out of the box in 04 or 05 could be great especially if it works with multiplayer Cube games like Mario Kart and Pikmin 2.

There is also the possiblity that Xbox and PS2 will become unable to compete with the Cubes price wars which will continue through next year resulting in NIntendo being the only one with increasing sales leading into the next generation and a Cube market that is given a second chance when it should be dying.  If this is true then a transition to the next gen would not be so abrubt as the console could be compatible with Cube software opening the gate for immediate libraries of great games that many people have never played.  Also MS is planning 06 and Sony is considering 07.  If Sony went with 07 and Nintendo went with 04 then by the time the PS3 was getting some good games a year or two after it's release Nintendo could launch a new system crushing the PS3's main gimmick, its power.  I don't believe any GBs, PSP, or N5 will be released next year, maybe unvieled and delayed though.  I don't believe there is enough time for developers to get games ready by next year for any of those 3 systems.  I think Sony will delay their portable and in turn so will NIntendo which only equals Nintendo getting one more year out of the cartridge medium before retiring it for good (unless they can keep 3rd party support using cartridge cheaply while Sony tries to push their battery devowering cd based handheld.)  Perhaps in order for NIntendo to have a backwards compatible handheld next gen they will rerelease the Cube as the handheld of the future allowing for the N5 to use a new medium that is perhaps encased for protection.

[The Omen]

Frankly, i would love to see Nintendo come out guns blazing in about a year.  I don't care about the $200-$300 i'll be paying.  I look at it this way, i'm going to buy it whenever it comes out anyway, so if this helps Nintendos stature then i can deal with it.  If you're not ready for a new system, then wait another year, then buy it.  I will keep my GC, so its not a waste of money to me.  

[Rich]

man I'm all for Nintendo releasing a year early, but only if the graphics are good enough to attract a crowd. The reason for the graphics is this, when the dreamcast came out everyone I knew was like "i dont want to get that, the graphics arent even that much better then my 64" but then when PS2 came out everyone was like "oh man look how nice madden is" so give people a reason to buy it thats what im saying, cause I'm willing to bet that the console with the better hardware will do great.

[The Omen]

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man I'm all for Nintendo releasing a year early, but only if the graphics are good enough to attract a crowd. The reason for the graphics is this, when the dreamcast came out everyone I knew was like "i dont want to get that, the graphics arent even that much better then my 64" but then when PS2 came out everyone was like "oh man look how nice madden is" so give people a reason to buy it thats what im saying, cause I'm willing to bet that the console with the better hardware will do great.

The graphic jump between this generation and next wont be big, so no console will have a huge advantage either way.  And the Dreamcast had other problems , being Sega was one of them.  People didnt trust Sega after the Saturn debacle.  The Dreamcast didnt receive very much 3rd party support either.  Nintendo would have none of those problems going into N5.  Just make a very affordable, high power console, like Nintendo usually does, and it'll sell very well.

[Rich]

I know all those things about Sega but im just saying, a lot of people that I knew didn't want a Dreamcast because they didn't think the graphics were that much better than the 64, which most people already owned. but then PS2 rolled around and they were just amazed with the graphics that everyone wanted it. yes I know a lot of people recognized the PS brand but not enough to bring Sony that huge launch they had where people were selling PS2s for $700.

Now I know I don't own Nintendo and I cant make them do anything, but what I would do if I did own Nintendo is launch the N5 a good six months before Sony with the newest Madden running on it, if this is done then I think Nintendo could hit it big, but it has to have Madden and the graphical jump has to be noticable. and it also has to be at least 6 months because if its anything less, people will just wait for the PS3 and look over the N5.

[SmellySocks]

Rich, a lot of those people you knew are either blind or just plain stupid.  A Dreamcast's graphics surpassed the N64's graphics by leaps and bounds.  It almost reminds me of how people thought that Super Mario Sunshine looked the same Super Mario 64.  

Those people probably just bought the Playstation 2 on brand name alone seeing as how the first generation of games looked the same or worse than Dreamcast games.  I'll give those people a little bit of credit with one thing.  Madden did look far better than the usual Dreamcast games; however, NFL2K looked pretty dang awesome at the time (and it still does, strangely enough).  I think I've been playing too much SNES....  

[jasonditz]

The Dreamcast really belongs in the present generation with the PS2 and the Cube rather than with the N64 and the PS1. The Dreamcast packed a lot of power for its time, and were it not for Sega's financial situation post-Saturn they'd probably still be making games for it right now. Had Sega not bailed on us I probably wouldn't have bought a cube at all. I'd probably be eagerly awaiting Sega's new console launch, which would've probably been in summer of '04.  

I have to admit I was unimpressed with most of the early PS2 games graphically. Madden was definately pretty, but I don't know that it really was significantly superior to 2K2 for the Dreamcast. There still aren't many PS2 games that I couldn't envision the Dreamcast handling.

[Joey]

If that nee "machine" they mentioned is what I think it was that that is the new product that was stated not to be a console of handheld. I don't think they are right.

[Rich]

I don't really think they were that blind cause I had to play a Dreamcast before I Saw its power. The Dreamcast commercials I saw did not make me want a Dreamcast, they just didn't manke it look appealing. But after I played I was just wowed, unfortunatly at the time I was still living with my parents withno job.

[SmellySocks]

I know what you mean, Rich.  At launch, I felt the Dreamcast had many great games to select from.  Call me crazy, but I think it had some of the best selections of titles that I've seen a new console launch with.  

Errr...back on topic.  Um yeah, no new console in 2004.  New handheld, maybe.   That's my unsupported prediction.

[rogue_gamecube]

Despite what your friends might have thought, the Dreamcast had amazing graphics. They might have said that remark about Madden on the PS2 because the Dreamcast commercials sucked and didn't reveal its true ability. That is one thing Sony has kicked ass at, is marketing. No matter how crappy the hardware may be, if it LOOKS great even though you spend MORE time waiting to play it, people in general won't care. I mean, take a look at the VGA ceremony that Spike TV held: can you get any more obvious than that? That show was basically a representation of what casual gamers think, and the proof is there: If it shines pretty, has big boobies and violence then its a "great game".

Anyways, back to the subject. I really really REALLY hope that Nintendo launches the N5 either late 04, or early-mid 05 simply because that would be enough time where the casual gamer wouldn't want to wait for another console due out 6 months to a year later. Launch the GBA2 either sooner, or later, not at the same time. Definitely before the stupid PSP. It just reads N-Gage to me, but you simply can't take that risk.

Honestly, I don't think any of those dates should be considered wrong. The next-gen games have been announced for quite some time and another 6-10 months should be enough to make them decent enough for a launch. Besides, toss in backwards capability and even two or three killer launch titles will carry it with the GC's titles as well. Anyways, what has been said should be considered as close as it gets to reality until E3 this May. I expect everything to be revealed then, in terms of what the new hardware is, GBA2 and N5. If not, Nintendo could do the N5 by restarting Spaceworld and announcing it then. It may be the last company to release the hype, but at least if they do it right it will be the one that remains on everyones mind.

Now here comes the best business decision they could make: announce the release of the N5 for Christmas 2004 at Spaceworld. Announce some tid-bits at E3, but drop the bomb at Spaceworld. Blitz the media with tons of hype, ketch Sony and MS with their pants down. AND, when they plan on releasing their systems, RELEASE THE GBA2! Boom, saturated the market with too much to choose from, make the GBA2 cheap enough to be the obvious choice. Sure, the PS3 will sell tons with its loyal userbase at launch, and same can be said about the XboxNext. But not as much with the GBA2 out then, and that will be what the casual gamer will want. Damn it, why can't I be the marketing strategist at Nintendo? I know this will never happen, but if it did Nintendo would be on top... *sigh*