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Khushrenada's Annual Oscar Thread. 2025 Edition.

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Khushrenada:
And now the tough stuff. Let's throw out my short picks for now which are always just a guess having seen none of the nominees.

Best Live Action Short - The Man Who Who Could Not Remain Silent

Best Animated Short - Magic Candies

Best Documentary Short - Instruments of a Beating Heart

Who knows? I'm running out of time so skipping my reasoning on those.

Documentary Feature - No Other Land

This is probably a mistake. Everyone seems to think this is a two-way race between No Other Land and Porcelain War. Porcelain War deals with the war in Ukraine. No Other Land deals with the Israel / Palestine conflict. Which way will voters go? I could see them sticking with Ukraine as that's a bit easier to get behind and it's what this category has been selecting for awhile. Navalny was about opposition to Putin. Last year's winner was also about the Ukraine War. Hollywood probably has divides about the Isreal / Palestine conflict so I could see people not voting for that documentary to vote for Porcelain War. Yet, despite focusing on a Palestine family, the movie was made by people from Isreal so its a rare case of the two races working together and the documentary has constantly come up at the top of Best of 2024 movies whereas I never see anything for the Porcelain War. Going to take a chance and say the Academy does go bold with this choice and shines a light on a film that has struggled to get shown and distributed in the US.

And now it all seems to come down to how much love Anora has among the voters and if it is going to win big tonight.

Best Editing - Anora

Conclave has broader support in this category and has won here in some other awards and there's talk that the Academy may be hesitant to award Baker this award along with Director and Screenplay. Yet, to me, the editing of Anora is important component of the movie. It also seems weird to me that people think Anora could win Best Picture while thinking Editing and Adapted Screenplay go to Conclave. That's more suggestive of a Best Picture winner. Going out on a limb here with Anora.

Best Original Screenplay - A Real Pain

I'm likely sabotaging myself now. The majority pick is for Anora here. But some people have gone rogue with A Real Pain and even The Substance. With Baker possibly winning awards for Directing and Best Picture if Anora goes all the way then voters may wish to award someone else in this category rather than give Baker another award here. Sort of like how Jordan Peele won here for Get Out. While it's possible this also opens the door for Corbet to get an award for The Brutalist, no one seems to be selecting that possibility whereas A Real Pain did get awarded at some other events leading up to the Oscars. Taking a chance here.

Best Actress - Demi Moore

This is a tough category. Most people see it as a two-way race between Moore and Mikey Madison. If Anora is winning Best Picture then how can Best Actress not also go to Madison? That performance is what carries and makes the movie. If Madison doesn't win here, does that mean Anora isn't winning? At the same time, you could look to other stuff like Peter O'Toole not winning for Lawrence of Arabia while that movie still won Best Picture but that's old school Oscar. Still, the Academy has always been resistant in awarding an Oscar to a first-time nominee especially if that performer hasn't had a large body of work to already point to and say she's "deserving." Someone like Fernando Torres could see that happen. A longtime international performer getting there due for the first time at the Oscars but with a large body of work. Then there's the Moore narrative. Moore had a much talked about acceptance speech when she won the Golden Globe and it's kind of been that speech which has carried her through to other wins leading up to the Oscars. Yet, it's been debated as to whether the role or movie would have been that different if some other older Hollywood star had played the part. Considering Moore talked about how she was told she could never win an important acting award and that she wouldn't be taken seriously, would the Academy now want to stop her winning streak and support that notion? Sometimes the Academy likes a comeback and sometimes it doesn't. To Moore's credit, she was in a few Best Picture nominees before and I still remember her being big from the 90s even if I still haven't seen many of her movies. I think the Academy will just roll with it and go with her as a sort-of lifetime achievement award for what she accomplished in the 90s.

Best Director - Sean Baker

This should be easy, right? Baker won the DGA which usually means that he'll win the Oscar. And yet, there's some doubt about it. Some people think Corbet could pull off an upset here with The Brutalist. I kind of think so too but am chickening out and sticking with Sean Baker. Would get into this more but I'm already way behind in posting my picks.

Best Picture - Conclave

People are saying it is between Conclave and Anora to win. It's all about the preferential ballots and what people will be putting higher on their lists between these two films. In that regards, I can see Conclave getting more mild support over Anora which some people may flat out hate. It seems weird that Conclave could win Best Picture when the director wasn't nominated but I'm wondering if this will be a Green Book type year in which you had very different types of movies nominated with no clear consensus top choice and Green Book won simply by being more mildly liked rather than disliked and thus won through the preferential ballot. And to be honest, as I've thought about Conclave since watching it and thinking about it again this week, my appraisal of it has gone up somewhat. It just kind of feels like the most good enough choice of everything nominated in which voters may not be upset or hate it winning even though they may be disappointed that their favorite didn't win. Guess we're about to find out.

Khushrenada:
The short form guess list:

BEST PICTURE: Conclave
DIRECTOR: Sean Baker
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Adrian Brody
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Demi Moore
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Kieran Culkin
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Zoe Saldana
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: A Real Pain
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Conclave
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: I'm Still Here
ANIMATED FEATURE: The Wild Robot
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: No Other Land
ORIGINAL SCORE: The Brutalist
ORIGINAL SONG: El Mal
CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Brutalist
COSTUME DESIGN: Wicked
EDITING: Anora
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: The Substance
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Wicked
SOUND: Dune Part 2
VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune Part 2
ANIMATED SHORT: Magic Candies
LIVE-ACTION SHORT: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Instruments of a Beating Heart

Khushrenada:
And now, the results:


--- Quote from: Khushrenada on March 02, 2025, 07:30:34 PM ---BEST PICTURE: Conclave Anora
DIRECTOR: Sean Baker
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Adrian Brody
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Demi Moore Mikey Madison
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Kieran Culkin
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Zoe Saldana
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: A Real Pain Anora
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Conclave
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: I'm Still Here
ANIMATED FEATURE: The Wild Robot Flow
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: No Other Land
ORIGINAL SCORE: The Brutalist
ORIGINAL SONG: El Mal
CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Brutalist
COSTUME DESIGN: Wicked
EDITING: Anora
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: The Substance
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Wicked
SOUND: Dune Part 2
VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune Part 2
ANIMATED SHORT: Magic Candies In the Shadow of the Cypress
LIVE-ACTION SHORT: The Man Who Could Not Remain I'm Not A Robot
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Instruments of a Beating Heart The Only Girl in the Orchestra

--- End quote ---

16/23 is the final. A bit of a fall from grace after last year. Completely kicked in the teeth by the shorts this year. 0/3 in that touch section. Seemed like it was going to be a rough night at first when Flow won over The Wild Robot and then In The Shadow of the Cypress won in Best Animated Short. Just like that, I was already 1 for 3 on the evening.

I was starting to get into it near the end of my prediction guesses but ran out of time in my musings of just how popular Anora really was with the Academy. My other three misses were in underestimating how big a night it was going to have. It surprises me because it just didn't seem like the kind of movie the Academy would ultimately arrive on as the best picture. Usually, they seem to want something a bit more weighty but considering how CODA won a few years ago, it seems they are more open to stuff that may not be about an important subject but provides a sort of slice of life on a more underrepresented demographic. Looking back, I was already moving my picks towards Anora being a favorite but held back at the end after questioning Madison not winning Best Actress while the BAFTA win of Conclave seemed like it might have broader overall support and that might lead to it winning in the preferential ballot. C'est la vie. I'll just have to do better next year.  ;)

ThePerm:
This year the only one of these I saw was the Substance, but it is, the type of movie I would watch.

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