There is a very big difference, although I accept that this does somewhat diminish the point you are hoping to make.
Not really. My point was just a tongue-in-cheek comment that there have been plenty of people saying Nintendo will fail for years whether it be with the Sega Genesis coming out or the DS vs PSP first year battle. Although you may be focusing on the Switch only in your prediction, it doesn't change the fact that it's nothing new or shocking. Even when the Switch was unveiled there were still people on other sites complaining about it. You just want to make your prediction more valid by saying you looked at some "evidence" so that your prediction is of greater worth than a kneejerk reaction by some anti-Nintendo fanboy on the internet saying the same thing in order to try and lord it over other people that also predicted a Switch failure.
But the capital of Mexico is Mexico City. If someone asks you what the capital of Mexico is and you look it up on Google, consult maps of the world, check it out in an encyclopedia, read through the entire history of Mexico, travel to Mexico City to see it for yourself and interview thousands of Mexicans to make sure before finally answering that it is Mexico City based on the evidence you have collected, it doesn't make the answer any less valid than someone who may guess "Uh..Mexico.... City?". It's still the same correct answer.
However, the difference in that illustration is that it is very easy to know Mexico City is the capital of Mexico because it is a fact that has been established for decades. You, however, are gloating on something that has still yet to be proven. It's the first day the Switch is even available for sale to the public but you act and talk like its the end of the Switch's lifespan and your hypothesis is fact. It's still a bloody unproven guess. Gee, why do other users get upset with my prediction of Switch failure? I guess they're too sensitive and blinded by their Nintendo love. That has to be the answer and not at all because there is still no actual sales proof to my claim. Quit jumping the gun. If you want to gloat, wait a year or two when you've got real evidence. That's why no one is taking you seriously and are getting pissed off at your "gloats". In your desire to declare yourself First to Predict the Switch Will Fail prize (which has absolutely no value at all), you keep harping on your claim like its fact while also stating that in "24 months (we should know conclusively by then, if not sooner)" acknowledging that nothing has been proven yet so why do you feel the need to keep acting like it is fact?
I like how you try to really emphasize how "genius" you are. You predicted the Switch would fail all the way back in 2016 like it was a year ago you came up with this idea. Well, it was Dec. 4, 2016 when you created this thread. So, just under three months ago at this point. I guess way back in 2016 sounds sexier than three months ago. To hedge your bets, you give yourself an out that if Pokémon is released on the system than it will be a success. Moreover, what is failure? Is it strictly in sales only that you are judging this? GameCube was considered a failure because of its sales yet these days it seems to be judged as more of a success due to its game library. So, even if Switch doesn't sell well, if the games released for it are good, there are still going to be people arguing your claim of the Switch as a failure. Even the Wii U gets some love from people on here as being a top Nintendo system despite its failure in the number of systems sold.