I've done a little bit of research and math to try and get an impression on the state of the portable wars in Japan. Please don't take anything under the "Estimates and Results" as fact, its merely used to provide a general impression and identify trends.
- Facts -
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Maleficentogre wrote:
Japanese Sales chart
1 PlayStation 2 65,837 124,401 189,238
2 PSP 64,602 62,052 126,654
3 Nintendo DS 53,527 108,561 162,088
4 GameBoy Advance SP 18,289 70,851 89,140
5 GameCube 7,475 19,703 27,178
6 Gameboy Advance 588 1,719 2,307
7 Xbox 506 1,179 1,685
platform title publisher this week total
1 GBA Mario Party Advance Nintendo 67,927 new
2 PS2 Gran Turismo 4 SCE 63,584 843,340
3 PS2 Gikei Eiyuden From Software 41,927 new
4 DS Sawaru Made in Wario Nintendo 33,537 575,069
5 PS2 Dragon Quest & Final Fantasy in Itadaki Street Special Square Enix 25,264 299,989
6 PS2 Dragon Quest VIII: Sora to Umi to Daichi to Norowareshi Himegimi Square Enix 23,858 3,235,861
7 DS Super Mario 64 DS Nintendo 22,671 593,831
8 PSP Minna no GOLF Portable SCE 18,682 N/A
9 PS2 METAL GEAR SOLID 3 SNAKE EATER Konami 18,166 790,518
10 PSP Shin Sangoku Musou Koei 17,070 N/A
One thing to know about this is that the PSP sales didn't increase, the DS sales just dropped in half.
Message Edited by Maleficentogre on 01-21-2005 07:46 PM
Reading these charts that Maleficentogre gave us, its a little difficult to tell exactly what some of these numbers mean. For system sales, I'd asume that the first two numbers are two different weekly sales figures, and the last number is the total sales numbers for the whole of January.
On the games side, the first number is the weekly sales, and the second number should be total game sales. However, there is a problem with the PSP games, as their total sales figures are "N/A". This means that the data is missing, not that these games were released during the week, as Mario Party Advance got a "new" title.
Its hard to make a prediction about total game sales without December sales numbers for the PSP. The only hint we have is here:
http://ds.ign.com/articles/575/575624p1.html?fromint=1They talk a little bit about overall sales of these three titles by December 23:
Ridge Racers - 87,000
Dynasty Warriors (Shin Sangoku Musou) - 56,000
Metal Gear Acid - 24,000
However, only Dynasty Warriors landed a spot on the their top 10 weekly charts (at #9, behind two DS titles). Its important to note that this must have been the most recent weekly chart since December 23, not initial launch data, which RR and MGA should have been included on.
So what does this mean? Its a fact that both MGA and RR weaned significantly in sales after the initial launch. This is supported also by Maleficentogre's data, which has both Hot Shots and Dynasty Warriors selling better than them also.
Estimates and Results
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In order to find total PSP game sales of their biggest titles, we are going to have to guess at MGA and RR numbers a little. But here's a good estimate:
[game] ~ [December Sales] + [mid-January Sales] = Total Sales by mid-January
Dynasty Warriors - 80,000 + 40,000 = 120,000
(very generous estimates, but I'd asume that its passed RR by now)
Ridge Racers - 100,000 + 25,000 = 125,000
(87,000 by Dec 23, only in top 10 sales charts for launch week)
Hot Shots Golf - 50,000 + 30,000 = 80,000
(Estimates based mostly on Malefficentogre's data)
Metal Gear Ac!d - 30,000 + 10,000 = 37,000
(24,000 by Dec 23, positioned at #20 week after launch)
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Total PSP game sales of top 4 games:
362,000
Total PSP unit sales = 450,000 (estimate at December sales) + 189,238 =
639,238
So at most, 57% of all PSP users own a top 4 selling game (if every each game sold represents a different individual).
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Now, lets compare this to what the data says about the DS.
Top 3 DS game sales data:
Mario DS - 593,831(fact)
Wario Ware DS - 575,069 (fact)
Pokemon Dash - 150,000 (estimate based on IGN's page) + 25,000 (Jan estimate)= 175,000
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Total DS game sales of top 3 games:
1,343,900
Total DS unit sales >= (or slightly below) 1,400,000 - based on Nintendo's 1.4 million in Japan by 2005 remarks.
So on average, 96% of all DS owners bought a top 3 selling game (if every each game sold represents a different individual).
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- Conclusion -
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For the perfect system, both percentages should be well above %100. In fact, the DS should have had above 100% if the top 4 were factored in (most likely Feel the Magic, which I couldn't find Japan sales data for). And of course there are other games for the PSP, but its unlikely that these extra titles could mean more than 15% to their total (also applies to DS titles).
Having above 100% means for sure that most owners of a portable own a game. Some own more than one, and likely only a few don't own any at all.
But 57%? That means that its likely that < 57% of PSP owners in Japan even own a game.
So what does this mean? Its probable that close to half of PSP purchases were made with an emphasis on its media abilities, not its games. Even if my estimates are a little off, I'd have to have about a 40% error for it to match the DS's figures.
(Side note: there is always a chance that a few may have bought the PSP for its games, but didn't have any money left over to spend on one)
However, there are some pluses to these figures for the PSP. Back during the PS2 launch in Japan, the console was marketed heavily as a DVD player and many people bought it just for that feature. It actually helped the DVD gain its popularity over there, and the format may have taken another year or two to catch on without the PS2.
If people come for the media features, its probable that sometime down the line the game interest will follow like it did for the PS2.
But for this method to really work, the PSP has to overshadow DS interest and sales. Already, its had its first victory in a weekly sales figures. Also during this week, DS sales dropped a heavy 55,034 units. There could be two reasons for this: 1) Suddenly, interest in the DS dropped by %50 in mid January, or 2) there was a shortage of DS's.
I'd be willing to bet on #2, because PSP sales did not largely increase as a result of weaker DS sales numbers.
So in conclusion, the PSP has made some strides on the DS recently, but at the rate things are going the DS will still have an advantage for a very long time. This is especially true if the DS's sales were lacking because of a shortage, for the DS was outselling the PSP by 46,500 units the week before.
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Feel free to tell if there's any estimates I must be significantly off by, or any other figures you've heard conflicting data about.
Again, don't take anything under the "Estimates and Results" section as an absolute fact. Its only used to find a general impression the ratio between game sales and portable system sales.
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