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Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« on: July 02, 2024, 03:36:02 PM »
With the Nintendo Switch now in its eighth year, some shy official talks about the Switch successor from Nintendo themselves, and no price drop in sight, do you think Nintendo will discount it soon? If so, when do you expect this to happen and by how much? Could this potential price drop make the Switch the most successful console ever? With a price drop, Nintendo may reach people they haven't reached yet. Or people might start buying second or third Switches, or special editions more frequently. What do you think & what are your predictions?

Here’s a comparison of previous Nintendo and other console price drops:

PS2 $299 -> $99 (Slim)
3DS $249 -> $169->$80 (2DS)
Wii $249 -> $199->$99 (Wii Mini)
DS $149 -> $129 (DS Lite) -> $99 (DSi)
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Offline BeautifulShy

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2024, 10:22:34 PM »
When is the Switch 2 supposed to be coming out?

Do we know late 2025 or summer 2025?

I think that is going to matter on when there would be a price cut for the Switch.
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Offline NWR_insanolord

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2024, 11:35:00 PM »
We don't have any real info on that, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's fairly early 2025, similar to how the Switch came out in early March. But with the Switch still selling well at the current price there's no real reason for Nintendo to drop it right now.
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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2024, 03:05:53 PM »
You make a good point, NWR_insanolord. As long as the Switch continues to sell well at its current price, Nintendo doesn’t seem to have much incentive to discount it just yet.

But I'm curious about the impact of a price drop when the Switch successor is announced or released. Would it make sense to drop the price of the Switch as soon as the successor hits the market? Could that affect the sales of the new system? For example, if people see the Switch being discounted when the successor is announced/released, might they opt to purchase the cheaper, older model instead of waiting for the new one? Of course there’s also the possibility that those who buy a discounted Switch might not be the same audience that would buy the successor immediately.

Or is it good enough for the launch that the current Switch owners are already planning to upgrade and are set on getting the new model regardless?

Still feels like a tricky balance. The decision to drop the price of the Switch could have significant implications for both old and new hardware this time around.
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Offline M.K.Ultra

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #4 on: July 04, 2024, 08:05:41 AM »
There could be a price drop when the new console is released in an effort to clear out stock and encourage folks to buy the new system. On the other hand, with switch 2 being more powerful and expensive, they might keep the old system in production for a year or two as a cheaper option, in that case they would still want to sell them at a profit.
I think the historic price drops coincided with parts and production becoming cheaper, but with scarcity and inflation, I don't know if the production costs of switch every did drop, hence the lack of a price cut.

Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #5 on: July 04, 2024, 01:34:34 PM »
I'm not sure there will be a price drop until maybe after the Switch 2 is out at this point and that would be to mainly clear out stock. 3DS hardware sales pretty much dropped off after Switch came out but they didn't discount the system at the time. I think they came out with the NEW 2D designs after Switch also. Can't recall if those were cheaper or not. In any case, they soon cut production of 3DS and it was pretty much vanished from store shelves by middle of 2019. Like a year and half after Switch release. But I don't recall any kind of firesale or impressive discount to clear out 3DS stock. Surprisingly, Nintendo might have been able to sell more 3DS systems after all if they'd kept making them for another year as the early COVID lockdowns saw a spike in gaming sales and there was suddenly demand for the system again.

Then Nintendo refreshed the Switch with a better battery and an OLED screen. With inflation that came during and after the pandemic, I think that, along with these better parts, has probably contributed to Nintendo holding the line with the price of the system. You can't really say the price has been a hinderance to sales considering how much hardware Nintendo has sold for this system and the fact that they'll probably be able to go a full eight years without having to replace it sooner or upgrade it with a NEW Switch type system. At this point, I just don't think Nintendo sees any incentive to lower the price unless they decide they do want to beat the PS2 record and make it a priority.

At the same time, I do think the age of the Switch's tech is now the bigger factor in determining how much more the system will sell. It is falling behind in the types of chips and processors that current phones and tablets have as well as the current generation systems. Not that there's much need to match the PS5 power considering so many third parties keep releasing games for both PS5 and PS4 because PS5 software sales continue to struggle. As long as Switch 2 can match (but preferably surpass) PS4 capabilities then third party support should still be there for the next system. When Switch 2 comes out, I'm not sure how many people will be looking for a system that's getting kind of dated tech-wise aside from maybe having a spare back-up system at this point or to access the Switch library at a discounted price (if it does get a price cut). I think it will be a pretty quick decline as people jump onto the next system. Not to mention, there's still stuff like GameStop where they might offer a discount on the Switch 2 if you trade in your old Switch. In that case, the market could soon be flooded with old used original Switches likely being sold at a discount that Nintendo would then have to compete against with their remaining stock. I'm almost wondering if we might see the Switch stock dry up by the end of December and the holiday season. In which case, it will never have had a price cut.

The rumor a few months back was that Nintendo decided not to launch the Switch 2 this year and wait until next year in order to make sure they had plenty of hardware at launch to meet demand and hopefully deter potential scalpers. If they're stockpiling hardware for the next system then I feel they'll want to make sure they won't be stuck with a bunch of original Switch hardware at this time. This is a company that is usually being conservative in their estimates for demand as seen with Amiibo, NES/SNES mini-consoles, special editions, etc. If they are going to go gung-ho with the Switch 2 and have like 8 million systems at launch then I could see them wanting to take a serious look at how many more OG Switches they want to keep manufacturing or have on the market and questioning how much demand may still be there when they unveil the Switch 2.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2024, 01:38:31 PM by Khushrenada »
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Offline BeautifulShy

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #6 on: July 04, 2024, 02:06:53 PM »
We don't have any real info on that, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's fairly early 2025, similar to how the Switch came out in early March. But with the Switch still selling well at the current price there's no real reason for Nintendo to drop it right now.

Historically, Nintendo releases consoles in November but I wonder since the Switch and Switch 2 are not typical standalone home consoles that has changed the timing of release.  Plus as MK Ultra said, the older console stays on the market as the new console gains steam or until things balance out.
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Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #7 on: July 04, 2024, 03:16:27 PM »
Is it historical still when you look at the last 14 years?

3DS was released in March 2011
Wii U in November 2012
NEW 3DS XL in February 2015
Switch in March 2017

Only Wii U was November. Perhaps NEW 3DS is a bit more derivative but I consider it a "NEW" hardware launch. ;) System variants have been all over the place but within July - October indicating that Nintendo does want to take advantage of holiday sales momentum with these different models:

3DS XL - August 2012
2DS - October 2013
NEW 3DS - September 2015
NEW 2DS XL - July 2017
Switch Lite - September 2019
Switch OLED - October 2021

With how well Switch sold from its March 3rd release date, I've always felt like Nintendo would try for that time of the calendar again in a "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" superstitious sort of attitude. I think it also would help with holiday sales momentum to release earlier in the year so that you get the initial sales rush from early adopters and then can get a second spike during the holiday sales and restock up for that time as well.
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Offline NWR_insanolord

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #8 on: July 04, 2024, 04:01:26 PM »
Is it historical still when you look at the last 14 years?

3DS was released in March 2011
Wii U in November 2012
NEW 3DS XL in February 2015
Switch in March 2017

Only Wii U was November. Perhaps NEW 3DS is a bit more derivative but I consider it a "NEW" hardware launch. ;) System variants have been all over the place but within July - October indicating that Nintendo does want to take advantage of holiday sales momentum with these different models:

3DS XL - August 2012
2DS - October 2013
NEW 3DS - September 2015
NEW 2DS XL - July 2017
Switch Lite - September 2019
Switch OLED - October 2021

With how well Switch sold from its March 3rd release date, I've always felt like Nintendo would try for that time of the calendar again in a "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" superstitious sort of attitude. I think it also would help with holiday sales momentum to release earlier in the year so that you get the initial sales rush from early adopters and then can get a second spike during the holiday sales and restock up for that time as well.

I think your last point is a big part of it. Supply can be an issue with new consoles, and with a March launch you can get the die hards to buy in early, then build up a bit of a software base and more stock for a kind of "second launch" in the holiday season.
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Offline Kairon

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2024, 08:38:49 PM »
Just on the strength of the June Nintendo Direct, with new games in the Mario, Zelda, and Mario Party universes, I think Nintendo might be shooting to achieve their hardware sales goals with strong software propositions, not price drops. (I wrote about it after that Direct here.)

I mean, it isn't exactly something to brag about but they ARE still consistently outselling the XBox Series S/X consoles, and it would be awkward to release that fancy new Zelda Switch Lite at full price in September and then drop prices all around just months later.

I mean, I can't rule out that Nintendo will go gangbusters by dropping a price drop announcement in September, but they DID just have to answer a question in their Investor QA about having no plans to RAISE the price of the Switch (in Japan, due to the weak Yen making the Switch cost less there than other countries).

Additionally, a higher-priced Switch could be a good thing to have when the Switch 2 rolls around. If the Switch 2 is significantly more expensive, there's plenty of space for the Switch 1 to stick around and feel like it's all of a sudden "inexpensive" despite never dropping the price. Plus the Switch 2 could feel a little bit more justified because it's a whole new generation of system for only X dollars more than the (not price-dropped) last one. The psychological benefit could work in both directions, and the Switch could enter the cross-gen period without a price drop at all.

Frankly, if there's no price drop this year the Switch could end up outselling the PS2's lifetime totals without EVER dropping its main SKU price!

Obviously, Nintendo has got to have more insight into where the sales trends are indicating. They saw the precipitous drop of the Wii sales numbers before the Wii U came out, and they know the possibility for this to turn on a dime. I have to assume they're watching carefully to see if the Switch is in the same danger... though honestly with a June direct that was way more aggressive/confident than I expected it doesn't seem like it's in that same danger.
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Offline Kairon

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2024, 08:40:56 PM »
Here’s a comparison of previous Nintendo and other console price drops:

PS2 $299 -> $99 (Slim)
3DS $249 -> $169->$80 (2DS)
Wii $249 -> $199->$99 (Wii Mini)
DS $149 -> $129 (DS Lite) -> $99 (DSi)

If we're going by this line of thinking, hasn't the Switch ALREADY received a price drop in the $199 (Switch Lite)?

With how well Switch sold from its March 3rd release date, I've always felt like Nintendo would try for that time of the calendar again in a "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" superstitious sort of attitude. I think it also would help with holiday sales momentum to release earlier in the year so that you get the initial sales rush from early adopters and then can get a second spike during the holiday sales and restock up for that time as well.

I think your last point is a big part of it. Supply can be an issue with new consoles, and with a March launch you can get the die hards to buy in early, then build up a bit of a software base and more stock for a kind of "second launch" in the holiday season.

I love this strategy!
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Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #11 on: July 05, 2024, 02:26:21 AM »
With how well Switch sold from its March 3rd release date, I've always felt like Nintendo would try for that time of the calendar again in a "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" superstitious sort of attitude. I think it also would help with holiday sales momentum to release earlier in the year so that you get the initial sales rush from early adopters and then can get a second spike during the holiday sales and restock up for that time as well.

I think your last point is a big part of it. Supply can be an issue with new consoles, and with a March launch you can get the die hards to buy in early, then build up a bit of a software base and more stock for a kind of "second launch" in the holiday season.

I love this strategy!

Thanks! You know I'm something of a business strategist myself. 8)




Just on a further role to prove that, Nintendo may look at what happened with the 3DS in which it launched ok but then sales slowed down so they course corrected with a price drop and were able to see it have a decent holiday and gain back momentum. With the Wii U, once the holiday was over and early adopters grabbed it, they really didn't have a way to re-spark that momentum (they already had a "cheaper" model out and their game release schedule was pretty sparse) plus the PS4 and XBox One took all the headlines for the following holiday season. It was pretty effectively killed once the news started coming out on its sales crash. It's another reason why I think they'd prefer to launch more in a spring season than in the past. More opportunities and ways to course correct if the launch phase falters a bit and you still have the holiday season coming up to get things back on track.

Of course, if it can go smoothly, like things did with the OG Switch's launch, where it is successful and the news is good then you can further steamroll and gain momentum in that time for the holiday season ahead and gain a big userbase and keep increasing demand as more and more people want into that gaming ecosphere and join in the next hot new thing and you've got another Wii, DS, Switch on your hands. If that's the case, you want to carefully retire the Switch 1 so that it doesn't get in the way of that momentum and perhaps no price cut is a way to make sure of that.

On the topic of the DS, Nintendo may be looking back at how they handled the transition from the GBA to the DS. GBA was a system that was still selling and growing its userbase and might have done more but Nintendo carefully put it out to pasture while allowing the DS to gain momentum. The famous third pillar strategy in which if the DS faltered then perhaps Nintendo sticks with the GBA system a bit longer and replaces it with a more traditional gaming system (single screen, no touch, more powerful graphics).

There was an old Iwata interview that was discovered a couple months ago talking about the DS vs PSP launch. At the time, everyone was focused on those new systems and the battle to determine the handheld market. Yet, Iwata said this at the time: "By the time the PSP is probably released worldwide, the total (GBA) install base will be around 60 million units," he confidently remarked, "They will need to show superiority against both the existing 60 million GBA units and the DS, which offers new ways to play. I think that will be a tough challenge." Looking back, I think a lot of gamers would have thought that comment ridiculous because look at the PSP compared to the GBA when it comes to what the systems could do in functionality, the power, the design of them. How is the GBA a challenge to it? But it was and is true. Yeah, the system was older but it had a huge game library at that point and was much cheaper than the PSP and the current market leader. Nintendo still gave it support in the first year of the DS and even released the Micro revision for it and the system still kept selling even while the DS began to gain momentum and then take off leaving the PSP behind in sales and effectively retiring the Game Boy line. That support of the GBA still is probably an unrecognized part of Nintendo's victory vs Sony in the handheld space. It was something that could draw away potential customers from the PSP at first who may have decided to go with something more affordable and with a large game selection and think about getting a PSP later down the road thus slowing its momentum.

It's the same thing with Switch 2. It might be an easier sell for Switch 1 users to jump to a Switch 2 but it is still a new system that is coming out and has to take on the current market leader to succeed. Nintendo has seen good and bad times when trying to pass the torch on from a successful hardware line to that line's successor. I'm sure the pros and cons of a potential price drop for the Switch 1 are being looked at more in line of what effect it might have on the Switch 2 rather than on claiming a new sales record or ensuring the Switch hardware userbase grows even larger just before trying to then have them turn around and buy a new system. In my mind, anyone buying a new Switch system now in the latter half of this year is probably not going to then turn around and buy a Switch 2 when it launches next year. (Unless it's that idea of a back-up system or a videogame collector adding to their collection). Chances are anyone actually getting a Switch for the first time now is likely going to just stick with using that system and its library for awhile and jump on Switch 2 later. That makes the most financial sense to me. Thus, Switch sales now may actually be working against the Switch 2 as those could possibly have been sales for that system if it was out now in this latter half of the year. It goes back to the thought that Switch 2 is going to be competing against a system with one of the biggest userbases and software catalogues in the history of this medium. PS3 struggled in succeeding PS2 and PS5 is still struggling to get out of the PS4's shadow and get that userbase to move on.

It's part of the reason now where I'm really excited for Nintendo to finally unveil this proposed next system. How similar is it going to be to the current switch? Are they going to try something new with controllers again? Try and find a way to add a second screen somehow? Are they just going to go the simple route and focus on beefing up processing and computing power and feel that's all they need to do? Is that all the market wants from a second Switch? Because that doesn't seem to have helped the PS5 immediately swallow up the PS4 base and have them jump ship to the latest console. A lot of gamers are still content to keep playing and buying new games for the PS4 instead. How much more do you feed the beast of Switch 1 now? Obviously, Nintendo recognizes there's still plenty of money and sales to be found with the Switch 1 audience in software. It makes sense to me that they had a good direct and with variously appealing software for different tastes. No sense shutting down software development immediately for the system and hope to go a year on just old game remasters or ports.

That said, I don't think there's software at this point that might be pushing or causing more hardware sales. Nor do I think Nintendo is trying to put out any software like that. I think Tears of the Kingdom or possibly Super Mario Bros. Wonder would be the last software titles released that might have induced people to buy a Switch if they hadn't already. The software being released now is stuff that's just playing to the crowd and userbase. Stuff that they know people who have already bought a Switch will be happy to see and purchase/play but it's nothing that's going to move the needle for hardware attachment rate or sales. Metroid Prime has never been that kind of hardware seller either but is there anyone here who doesn't think that's likely to be a cross-platform game with Switch 2 in a Twilight Princess / Breath of the Wild situation? That might help add some hype to the Switch 2 launch but if launched on Switch 1 also then already that battle between Switch 1 slowing momentum from Switch 2 will have begun by negating a software title that could have been exclusive to Switch 2 and make Switch 1 users feel like they can wait on adopting the next console that early.

While I was impressed and happy about the titles being offered for the latter half of the year, these are definitely more titles for the hardcore Nintendo fan who will likely already have a Switch and is to tide them over until the next system arrives. I'm definitely looking forward to the upcoming Zelda game and it could make a nice final hurrah for the system since Kirby seems to be absent suddenly at this time. Usually he's around to help hold the pillow down at the end of a system's life. Maybe he shows up early next year.

I'm sure I had a point somewhere in there when I started but I think I let myself get sidetracked onto different topics. Ah, forum posting. This is where the gold is. In long walls of text like this. You're all welcome. So much to unpack and enjoy. I suppose my quick summary of what I wanted to say was the biggest obstacle for the success of Switch 2 may very well be Switch 1's userbase and how quickly that userbase will want to move on or adopt the system. Switch 2 has to fight that success and more Switch 1 sales may actually be working against setting Switch 2 up to succeed. Hence, price cut for Switch 1 needs to be looked at in how it could affect Switch 2 momentum. While the Direct gave the Switch 1 library another shot in the arm with many titles of interest, they're also titles for the hardcore Switch users. It makes sense for Nintendo to still keep selling software to this big of a userbase while they can so good titles for Switch 1 this late in its life shouldn't actually be that surprising and looked at in the light of whether Switch 1 gets a price cut because of them.

(Unmentioned but thought about. Nintendo perhaps regretting not appealing to the Wii userbase more after Skyward Sword and the release of the Wii U. Meanwhile, Ubisoft continued to take advantage of the sales potential there for almost a decade with Just Dance titles. Possible cheaper hardware revision. GBA had Micro when DS came out. 3DS had NEW 2DS XL release after Switch came out. Wii had the Wii Mini just before the Wii U launch. Some of these revisions were sold at a lower cost. With Switch Lite already on the market, is there much of possible revision (cheaper) model that could actually be put out at this time or after Switch 2 launches?)
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Offline lolmonade

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2024, 12:17:06 PM »
Nintendo has said outright that supply shouldn't be a concern for this next go-around, so unless they badly forecast demand (very possible), it could be that there'll be a next console on the shelves in short order past initial launch.

I don't expect a formal price drop.  Maybe retailers run sales to clear-out supply and make way for what's next, but frankly most of the retailers near me aren't heavily stocked with inventory as-is.  Maybe an enticing black friday deal compels people to go out and buy what's left. 

I'm open to the idea that if they are directly backwards compatible that you could see a drop down to $250 for basic and $300 for retail.  That'd make way for a $350 price for next console, unless they want to be brave and charge $400.  I think the PS5 & Xbox Series have made a permission structure for Nintendo to price it for at least that much unless they're insistent on keeping it at an affordable price point for the broad consumer.

Offline M.K.Ultra

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #13 on: July 10, 2024, 11:21:38 AM »
Yeah, what do folks think the new console will be priced at? I am leaning more towards $400 US.

Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #14 on: July 10, 2024, 04:29:53 PM »
The crazy thing is, $400 today is roughly equivalent to $266.15 in 2006 dollars. So, if it were priced at $400, it would be similar to the Wii's price back then ($250).

Pricing is a tricky question, especially considering the weak yen currently. That could be an issue for Nintendo in the long run.
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Offline Kairon

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2024, 11:56:51 AM »
I think $400 is the default/consensus target, yeah. That's a lot numerically, but definitely taking inflation into account it's not at all out of line with previous Nintendo consoles. Plus, if the Switch Successor is technically ambitious, then it will most definitely need that room in the hardware budget to purchase more powerful chips.

As for the weak yen, that's sort of a complicated thing, right? It makes sales in foreign currencies like the USD even better, so there's no need to price higher in the US for example, but sales in Yen in the home market not as great, so potentially they'd need to launch at a higher than expected price in Japan due to the exchange rate? And then there's the procurement side of it: how much is Nintendo able to purchase things in dollars versus how much do they need to be paying in Yen? It's probably not advantageous at all to be buying Switch 2 parts in Yen.
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Offline sobhsepid

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2024, 03:37:46 AM »
I don't think they're in a hurry to lower the price anytime soon, if inflation will go up again in 2025 or when the gen 2 comes out then I think the gen 1 console will stay at the same price and the gen 2 will see a price spike, even if it's not out for sale yet

Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #17 on: August 15, 2024, 02:02:34 PM »
Here's an interesting tidbit from the latest earnings results that might hint at a possible price drop:

https://twitter.com/pierre485_/status/1823723320036221349

"While Nintendo achieved 16% of its forecast for hardware, ordinary and net profit reached 27% of the forecast in Q1 alone.

Given these "low" forecast for profit, it's possible the company is anticipating a price cut on consoles and/or games this FY."
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Offline Kairon

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Re: Will Nintendo Finally Drop the Switch Price?
« Reply #18 on: August 15, 2024, 02:12:04 PM »
I can follow that thinking. If their forecasts are such that they still want to move lots of units, but don't need as much revenue, that could easily fit in with a planned price cut.
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A glooming peace this morning with it brings;
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Than this of Sega and her Mashiro.