Topic: Place your bets: How will the PS4 and Xbox One sell in their first year?

[Mop it up]

NOTE: Each person has two votes, and the idea is to pick one option for the PS4 and one for the Xbox One.

Since we now have a decent idea of how these two systems will be launching and what many of the first-year games will be, I think it's time for a little poll before they are released to see what the general consensus is here for them, and to officially track who predicted what in terms of how well these systems will be received. It's preferable to post in the thread which two options you chose, and the thread can also be used to predict actual numbers and other such talk.

[Adrock]

I chose "Strong launch numbers, decent year-long sales" for both though I expect PS4 to take an early lead since it's cheaper and doesn't have all the bad will Microsoft has been trying to shed for the past few months. I don't think either can perform as poorly as Wii U after the holidays since they both have good support. Nintendo shot themselves in the foot by not even having a major first party title until Pikmin 3 which isn't even that major (in terms of sales potential). If they were able to get Wind Waker HD out in like February or March, that would have significantly helped alleviate that drought. Not enough for steady sales, but it would have been something. In Japan without PS4 to contend with (and One for that matter), Nintendo should do very well this holiday season so there's that. I still expect them to do well in other territories with competition since they are finally release some big games.

I can't see PS4 nor One performing amazingly in that first year due to the fact that the first year for any piece of gaming hardware never really does especially well after launch (Wii notwithstanding). There's also the fact that PS3 and 360 still have strong titles coming out. Besides early adopters, how many people feel the need to get one of these platforms yet?

Personally, I'm not planning on buying a PS4 until the latter half of 2015 at the earliest. I'm not interested in One at all though that controller looks comfortable.

[Spak-Spang]

I personally believe this generation is going to start the same for all three consoles.  It is going to have a strong launch for initial supports and die-hard gamers....and then it is going to fizzle out to low sales because the cost will not be appealing and the games will not be so drastically better that the average gamer must own it. 

I do think that the PS4 and Xbox One will both pick up again better than the Wii U did for the second year Christmas season, and potentially beyond that, but I do not see the huge numbers to blow the Wii U out of the water the first year.  I think the Wii U shows us people were content and didn't really want a new system yet.  Seriously, I think gamers would have been happy going another year or 2 without a new system.

[Ceric]

PS4:  Sell Through Launch and then have a strong year relative to the WiiU and XBox One First year.
XBox One: Sell Through Launch and then Struggle at near WiiU levels for at least to Next Holiday Season.

So in the end I think the PS4 will have the strongest First year of the Three Systems.  MS Would have to have some really serious problems to do worse then the Wii U first year but I don't think they do very much better.  I don't think anyone is going to better their first year then Previous generations.

[Mop it up]

I forgot that I made this.

I actually think the lack of backwards compatibility will hurt the sales of both systems. I suspect quite a few people have just one or two systems connected to their television at any one time, and if they can't replace their PS360 with the new system, they will probably wait until they've played all the PS360 games they want before buying a new system. And since PS360 games are still being released regularly and probably will be for some time, it could be a while before the big titles move to PS4BONE only.

[MagicCow64]

The projection being tossed around in the Press Release Gaming Press is 5 million for each system by March (the launch window, I suppose).


I'm going to lowball that at 8 million combined, with fairly lukewarm sales from there on out, until another holiday push. I think the demand for this new gen is somewhat astroturfed by the video game industrial complex, and that this will be reflected in lower-than-expected sales. There also might be supply problems, bad batches of consoles, network problems, whathaveyou that will depress the numbers, and maybe even make the WiiU rollout look graceful in comparison.

[shingi_70]

More than the Wii U.

[Spak-Spang]

...

[shingi_70]

Lol

More reasticlly around 5 million each
This is  talking about till next novemeber right.

[BranDonk Kong]

Xbox One will sell a lot at launch (mainly eBay speculators) and taper off quickly, PS4 will dominate holiday season (Ghosts on PS4 sold more than Wii U).