Topic: Wii U Future Predictions!

[Caterkiller]

I wish we did something like this with the Wii, so lets have a thread discussing our predictions for the Wii U. That way we can go back and easily find our posts to eat crow or rub it in someone else's face.


Future predictions regarding:


1 - Market share
2 - Units sold
3 - 3rd party exclusives
4 - Perception among gamers
5 - Graphical capabilities years down the line.


Anything really. Doesn't have to be a list, these are just some ideas.

[Luigi Dude]

I think it's kind of hard to make these predictions since we still know nothing about the 720/PS4.  If we were to make these predictions back in 2005, everyone would have thought the PS3 would be dominate after the PS2.  Instead Sony put a gun to their head and pulled the trigger at E3 2006.  We also didn't know much about the Wii except for it's controller in late 2005, which gave us no idea how big the system would be when unveiled in 2006.

Sorry but I'm waiting until after E3 2013 before making these kind of predictions.  Especially if the 720 or PS4 end up having another $599.99 suicide moment.

[azeke]

I'm gonna play it.

How's that for a prediction?

x more days till it released and delivered to me D:

[alegoicoe]

incremental support from indie developers as we get close to the next gen and development cost increase, indie developers would have a cost advantage working for Wii U

[TJ Spyke]

With developers getting to choose their own price, and getting unlimited free patches/updates, I do think we could see more indie developers switching from Xbox Live Arcade/Xbox Indies to the eShop, especially the ones too lazy or cheap to fix games with massive bugs (like Fez developer Phil Fish, who refused to pay to fix a bug that would corrupt players save files).

[Caterkiller]

Despite not seeing anything for the PS420 I'm betting that if the UE4 demo is the peak of Next Gen, Nintendo will not be left in the dust graphic wise again.

[ThePerm]

The first year is going to be relatively low key. After 1 week all of the "analysts" will spout doom and gloom for a few months. Slowly the early adopters will show off the Wii U to friends. The thing that will impress people the most will be that it makes an awesome remote control for their tv. Over the next year Ubisoft's sales on Wii U will be pretty high, mainly because they are the only choice in town. Zombi U will be a top seller despite mixed reviews, because of this a sequel will be announced and also other Zombie series like dead island will be announced for the console. The DeadIsland game will get mediocre sales because its an old game by this time. A sequel will be on ps4 and xbox 720. When asked if the sequel will come to Wii U the developer will come up with vague answers and stupid excuses.

Nintendo will show a new Zelda game, and the new Retro game, the Retro game will probably be a new Metroid game. Both will look gorgeous. That is if Retro isn't making Zelda, in which case Nintendo will not have anything for the show. a 3d mario will be absent until the next year, but only in video form.

The next year Nintendo will release a bunch of games I don't care about a long with a new Zelda or a new Zelda and Metroid. There will be 3 good 3rd party games and that will be it. Despite this Wii U will have good sales, better than gamecube, but not quite as good as Wiis were.

The next year Nintendo will take a franchise from the other systems, but it will be one nobody cares about at this point, and likely an updated port of the original title. Right before its release, a much more promising sequel will be announced and everyone will want it. Further more it will be revealed that the game we were waiting for wont remain exclusive for long.

The next e3 the new mario game will be announced, with mixed enthusiasm. It will be reviewed well by critics, but g4tv will be totally against it.

eternal darkness and shenmue 3 will be announced for the IwiiU, but cancelled 2 months later.

Nintendo might buy Sega.

[Caterkiller]

^ Suddenly I have memories of days long past! The nastalgia leaves a sharp pain in my stomach.

[Ymeegod]

I really don't see Nintendo WII U hitting the market share of the WII (100+ million), I'll be surprised to see it past 50+ million.  I'm guessing that once the newer consoles hit the market the WII U will start losing 3rd party support which will start showing during it's 4th-5th year (2016-17).  If I was nintendo I would have another system (one that's on par/better than then Xbox720/PS4) ready to go by then end of 2016-17.  I really don't see the WII U having an  7-8 year cycle lifespan.

Sales figures for the WII U:
For the USA--25 million
Europe--15 million
Japan--10 million

[Spak-Spang]

1- 2 Market Share:  I see this dropping significantly from the Wii numbers.  It will not have the energy or buzz.  However, I believe the players that buy it will be more dedicated to the system, and actually use the system.  I see it doing better than Gamecube, but less than Wii...maybe somewhere around Nintendo 64 numbers.  I believe this next generation will be a Microsoft generation.  MS will rise and Nintendo will take middle ground and Sony will fall.

3- 3rd party exclusives will actually be quite few.  I feel Ubisoft will continue its ZombieU franchise for a sequel, and Rabbid games will continue to be exclusive...but I see very few really good games being exclusive this generation....for any console.

4- 5:  Again this is together.  I think gamers are going to appreciate the Wii U for Nintendo finally joining the "current generation."  But that is how they will talk about Nintendo.  It won't matter how cool Nintendo's Miiverse is...and in fact I believe some of these gamers will secretly love the features, but will say the competitions is better...whatever is done.  And in fact, I will believe it actually will be better in many ways, however it will lack that Nintendo charm.  This will lead to the gaming community saying Nintendo is not truly next generation and behind the times.  And again they will partially be right, because I believe Sony and Microsoft will again jump a pretty large gap in gaming...they see gaming in the computer model...and if you don't have insane specs you won't be able to last the 6-8 years they want this generation to last.  Will Nintendo's system be able to compete...yeah I think so.  But, Nintendo will continue to be slammed for graphics this next generation, even if it isn't really noticeable.

6)  Bonus Games I think will come out:

Final Fantasy will return to a Nintendo system.

F-Zero will be made with online play and a course editor that uses the touch screen. 

A Mario game that experiments and changes the formula just as much as Galaxy did...and it will use the touch screen for actually controlling Mario some how.

Super Smash Bros U will have a great multiplayer experience, but the single player will suck balls and continue in the miss direction of Brawl....and it will be the main focus on the 3DS version even though it sucks...however, all will be forgiven when a few select 3rd party characters that people love are included in the game.  Read:  Mega Man and Simon Belmont

[ShyGuy]

I predict that the Next Xbox and PS4 will be supe rpowered, but most of the games won't look that much better. PC gaming will continue its strong comeback and no next-gen console, including WiiU, will surpass 100 million.

[MrPhishfood]

Ouya will surpass everything. They will have a monopoly on the home console market. This will be backed up by a partnership with Kool-Aid with a very catchy commercial. OOUUYEEAAAAH!

Kool-Aid will also flourish in parts of the world where it is still unknown and usurp Coca-Cola as the leading soft drink brand.

[BranDonk Kong]

I think the market share will be pretty high, and PS4/Xbox 720 will not hit anywhere near what PS3 and 360 have hit (and Wii U will not get anywhere near what they Wii got). Once the PS3 and 720 hit stores, a lot of people will own a Wii U, and the price will probably be lowered as well. At first I thought releasing the Wii U now maybe was a bad idea, but I think it will actually pay off for Nintendo. This first wave of third party games will jot sell spectacularly, mainly because they have mostly been out on other consoles for at least a couple of weeks...but the next wave will do better, and hopefully we'll get some exclusives (even if it means Nintendo needs to put down some money to do so).

[Ian Sane]

The Wii was a once-in-a-lifetime product and the Wii U will never sell even close to the same amount of units.  This isn't a knock on the Wii U, the Wii's success was just special and unique and none of the systems of this next gen will have the same kind of mainstream success.

I predict that the PS4 and Xbox 720 will have a significant hardware advantage and that deep down the Wii U hardware is really more comparable to the PS3 and 360.  I really hope I'm wrong on that.  The rumours about the Xbox 720 however, with it's weird SKU that does everything BUT games, don't sound promising.  MS seems to want to make Xbox a general entertainment brand instead of a videogame brand and I think that will result in brand confusion.  Even if the next systems lap the Wii U, they could still flop.  I would argue that Nintendo was the only one of the big three that NEEDED to upgrade their console.  Sony and MS really have no reason to, and the market might see it the same way.  The Vita flopping huge also hurts my confidence in Sony.  I realistically think that none of the big three really knows what they're doing right now and the victory may go to whoever is the least idiotic.

Videogames are mainstream but not in the way the big three THINK they are.  The Wii was mainstream.  Bullshit junk games on the iPhone are mainstream.  That's it.  Dedicated videogame systems are not how the mainstream wants to play games.  I think there is a still a market for consoles with hardcore gamers but for the general mainstream, smart phones are what they want.  The Wii connected with a crowd who merely wants a mindless distraction and that crowd has gone to Apple.  The remaining console market is the old pre-Wii core market of nerds, teenagers and children.  Any company thinking that their console is going to be the choice of the blue ocean is wasting their time.

[Adrock]

Market share/Units Sold
Won't touch the Wii or PS2. It doesn't have to. At worst, you're looking at Gamecube sales. At worst. However, Nintendo doesn't have that 1 or 2 "WTF design choice" that Gamecube did. Starting with 8GB/32GB internal flash memory was almost one, but having a storage solution at launch helps tremendously. Voice chat is a mess right now though Nintendo can fix that. Wii U should sell much better than Gamecube did, more than N64 for that matter. Despite some growing pains, Wii U is a pretty solid console.

Without knowing what Sony and Microsoft have planned (though I have doubts they'll do anything drastic), it's hard to tell where Nintendo will be in market share. Launching 1st and having at least a year to rack up sales before the competition hits is the difference maker here. That affects everything else. Nintendo can live with getting PS3/360 ports for the time being because it's better than not getting them. By the time Orbis/Durango launch, Nintendo will have sold millions of units. Ignoring that many people (and counting) is leaving money on the table and I don't think 3rd parties will.

3rd party exclusives
There just won't be many of these any more. Nintendo is going to score them in the same way they got Bayonetta 2, picking up projects by talented developers in danger of getting cancelled. Also, Nintendo should treat UbiSoft like their best friend. Nintendo gave them a major boost by making Rayman Legends the ONLY pre-launch store demo. Imagine ZombiU becoming a series and remaining exclusive. A sequel with Ubisoft Montpellier already familiar with the hardware could be huge. Additionally, if Sony and Microsoft don't follow Nintendo's lead in supporting indie developers, they'll likely get tons of eshop exclusives.

Perception among gamers
Considering the GamePad is just a traditional controller with motion dodads and a large screen, Wii U already has more gamer cred than the Wii. Nintendo may want to experiment with Zelda, but it would benefit the Wii U greatly to get it out soon and build on the potential of that E3 demo. The art may not be as inventive as Skyward Sword, but damn, it was pretty. That could be the core game that convinces hold-outs that Nintendo themselves are serious about them.

Graphical capabilities years down the line
I have my doubts that Sony or Microsoft will take on major losses on hardware. They will undoubtedly launch more powerful hardware, but Wii U won't be left too far behind. It has a modern feature set and should keep up with the competition for a few years due to scalability. Wii U will be getting 720P more often than 1080P. The important thing is that they'll still be getting most games for most of its life. I really don't think Nintendo is going to try to push Wii U past 5 years. The last big Wii U games from Nintendo and 3rd parties will likely be released in November 2016, maybe the 1st half of 2017. It's all about timing. Nintendo stuck with the Wii longer than they should have. Wii U is an HD console amidst other HD consoles. It should hold up better than the Wii.

[Ian Sane]

Nintendo may want to experiment with Zelda, but it would benefit the Wii U greatly to get it out soon and build on the potential of that E3 demo. The art may not be as inventive as Skyward Sword, but damn, it was pretty. That could be the core game that convinces hold-outs that Nintendo themselves are serious about them.

That's a good idea.  As superficial as it sounds I think it would be a good idea for Nintendo to release a game that looks REALLY nice.  NSMB U looks okay but it doesn't push the graphics in any way where anyone thinks that the Wii U is impressive hardware.  "Good enough" graphics usually don't create much buzz.  But something really ambitious will not only make the hardware look impressive but also make Nintendo look like a serious developer instead of some casual company that just makes cookie cutter Mario games.  Nintendo Land demonstrates the Gamepad but there isn't something that sells the real "guts" of the Wii U.  Pushing the gimmick controller and de-emphasizing the hardware is not the way to get core gamers interested.

[Luigi Dude]

The final Wii U hardware wasn't finished until the summer.  As a result Nintendo Land and NSMB U never had a chance to truly push the system even if Nintendo wanted them to.

It's not going to be until E3 2013 when we see Smash Bros, 3D Mario and Retro's new game that we'll see what the system can really do since these will have had a change to be made on the final hardware and made by people that specialize in pushing the hardware like they did on the Wii.  I'd hope Zelda will be shown but that will probably be more E3 2014.

[NWR_insanolord]

Something to remember in terms of power is that what developers are able to get out of hardware increases over time. Look at the early games on the 360 and then what it's doing now. The Wii U, at the very beginning, is already matching where the other consoles are after 6-7 years. It's only going to get better over time.

[Ian Sane]

Something to remember in terms of power is that what developers are able to get out of hardware increases over time. Look at the early games on the 360 and then what it's doing now. The Wii U, at the very beginning, is already matching where the other consoles are after 6-7 years. It's only going to get better over time.

So the Wii U launch games match current PS3 games?  Would we consider that even remotely an accomplishment in the past?  If Dreamcast launch games looked like later N64 games wouldn't that have been considered a total joke?  Matching what we're getting now from other systems is the absolute bare minimum.  Anything less would have been unacceptable.  Remember this isn't some PS360 competitor.  This is supposed to be the start of a new generation so it better be clearly distinct from the previous one.  Now I remember the Xbox 360 launch and how underwhelming that was so, yeah, the visual jumps between generations aren't as noticable as they used to be.  But right now the Wii U looks like Nintendo has finally caught up which is a pretty lame accomplishment.  So Nintendo's finally adequate?  Big deal.  Core gamers expect this to be the start of the next generation and if Nintendo is just content to finally be a part of the PS360 generation well there goes any credibility with core gamers.  They need something to state that this is more than just a PS3 with a tablet.

[NWR_insanolord]

What I'm saying is the Wii U at its worst is as good as the best you can possibly get from the 360 and PS3, which means it's a clear step up, even though it might not seem that way.

[Luigi Dude]

So the Wii U launch games match current PS3 games?  Would we consider that even remotely an accomplishment in the past?  If Dreamcast launch games looked like later N64 games wouldn't that have been considered a total joke?  Matching what we're getting now from other systems is the absolute bare minimum.  Anything less would have been unacceptable.  Remember this isn't some PS360 competitor.  This is supposed to be the start of a new generation so it better be clearly distinct from the previous one.  Now I remember the Xbox 360 launch and how underwhelming that was so, yeah, the visual jumps between generations aren't as noticable as they used to be.  But right now the Wii U looks like Nintendo has finally caught up which is a pretty lame accomplishment.  So Nintendo's finally adequate?  Big deal.  Core gamers expect this to be the start of the next generation and if Nintendo is just content to finally be a part of the PS360 generation well there goes any credibility with core gamers.  They need something to state that this is more than just a PS3 with a tablet.

What part of final Wii U hardware being done months before launch don't you understand?  NSMB U and Nintendo Land have been in development for several years and were probably over 90% done by the time the Wii U's final hardware was ready.  Both games had to be created on much weaker hardware that lacked important things like RAM compared to what is in the system now.  Hence why both games could never show off the systems true power unless Nintendo delayed them which would have killed the Wii U's launch.

Plus if the Wii Sports team could create Nintendo Land on weaker Wii U hardware and make it look like a modern 360/PS3 game, what do you think the 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, Retro, Monolith Soft and Sakurai games are going to look like when they're designed on more powerful Wii U hardware?  Once again, E3 2013 will be when we finally get a good idea what the Wii U is truly capable off.

[BranDonk Kong]

Dreamcast to N64 and Wii U to PS3 is not a fair comparison by any means, or trying to draw a relation doesn't hold any weight these days. A better (but still not quite there) comparison would be Wii to PS2. The first Wii games looked about as good as a top-notch PS2 game (say Twilight Princess to Okami or ICO), and then the Wii eventually got some much better looking games like Mario Galaxy 2.

[Shaymin]

1 - Market share
2 - Units sold
3 - 3rd party exclusives
4 - Perception among gamers
5 - Graphical capabilities years down the line.

1. The only thing stopping it in Japan is the 3DS, and the fact you can't take it on the train. Europe... not sure of, but I suspect having the best version of FIFA for several years will help there. North America will probably split three ways next time 'round, but it'll eventually come out on top by having a 2 year head start on both the Xbox 420 and the PS4.

2. Probably around Super Nintendo levels worldwide, split 35/30/25 NA/EU/JP.

3. Western companies won't get in on this unless ZombiiU moves massive units. Japan? Well, since they'll be the defacto console once the PS3 dies out, there'll be a lot of quirkier fare from the East that the onus will be on NOE to localise for us.

4. The members of your prominent internet message board of choice will hate it (look up "WiiU RAM" on NeoGAF and prepare to facepalm). However, the larger majority will be satisfied with the purchase when it comes time for the Next Nintendo Console (tm).

5. It'll be defined by a lot of retro art styles, but the gulf between end of life WiiU and mid-life 420/PS4 won't be as dramatic as the gulf between end-of-life Wii and, say, a $800 gaming PC. Most of that will be explainable by the fact that the WiiU hit in 2012 and the other systems in 2014.

[Spak-Spang]

Are the next systems hitting in 2014?  I have a feeling Microsoft will definitely be November 2013...and Sony, well I could see them waiting through 2013...but not all year 2014. 

[Spak-Spang]

Ian you used a very poor example, because you used a very large generation gap system. 

However, the Xbox 360 didn't have games that greatly looked better than the best last generation Xbox games...except that they were in HD.  And in fact, some Xbox 360 games did not look better than Wii games if you down scaled them to a lower resolution. 

The point many people are making is that we are hitting a plateau in graphics...not in what is possible, but what is feasible and affordable.  So, if the Nintendo Wii U is already at a level of PS3 and 360 games without knowledge of optimization, that comes with experience later on, then future games will only look even better.  Also, there isn't a single launch game that is known for being a graphics pusher at this launch...Nintendo does always push the limits, but instead makes games that function for what they are trying to do.