Author Topic: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back  (Read 28980 times)

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Offline NWR_DrewMG

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #50 on: January 26, 2009, 10:13:43 PM »
Hey the old man is back. Lets not forget how completely wrong you were about the DS and PSP too.

I've heard that a few times now, but I can't find any article he wrote that suggests that.  Link?

EDIT:  nevermind, I think I found it.  FWIW, in March 2005, he posted some very legit concerns about the touch screen control interface.  He never says anywhere in the thread that I can find that DS will fail and PSP will reign supreme.  He remains skeptical. 

I don't remember getting ANY use out of my DS in March 2005.  The first games I remember really loving on my DS (which was purchased in January 05) were Kirby's Canvas Curse (June 05) and Meteos (June 05).  Fact is, in March 2005, I was skeptical too, and rightfully so.  I had very real doubts about the viability of the DS until I played those games.  They made me a believer.  Until then?  I would have taken a PSP over the DS, hands down. 

Okay, sorry for the derail.  Rick was being accused of saying something, and I wanted more information on that accusation.  Back to crucifying him for being a critic.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2009, 10:24:43 PM by DrewMG »
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Offline GoldenPhoenix

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #51 on: January 26, 2009, 10:20:18 PM »
Not sure about that, but I found a hilarious quote of my own!

Quote
The people Nintendo wants to reach with the console will not be caught dead walking into a store and asking for “Wii" within earshot of friends.

http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/editorialArt.cfm?artid=11407

Dead on! Oh wait. ;)

Or from his blog (Yes I was bored)

Quote
Yes, hardcore fans will get used to the name, but the mainstream won't even give it a chance.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2009, 10:37:13 PM by GoldenPhoenix »
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Offline NWR_DrewMG

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #52 on: January 26, 2009, 10:25:38 PM »
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Offline GoldenPhoenix

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #53 on: January 26, 2009, 10:49:11 PM »
https://www.nintendoworldreport.com/forums/index.php?topic=12039.0

There's the DS vs. PSP thread, by the way.

Read like a rerun of what is being said about Wii (or was said).
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Offline Berto2K

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #54 on: January 26, 2009, 11:09:55 PM »
Hey the old man is back. Lets not forget how completely wrong you were about the DS and PSP too.

I've heard that a few times now, but I can't find any article he wrote that suggests that.  Link?

EDIT:  nevermind, I think I found it.  FWIW, in March 2005, he posted some very legit concerns about the touch screen control interface.  He never says anywhere in the thread that I can find that DS will fail and PSP will reign supreme.  He remains skeptical. 

I don't remember getting ANY use out of my DS in March 2005.  The first games I remember really loving on my DS (which was purchased in January 05) were Kirby's Canvas Curse (June 05) and Meteos (June 05).  Fact is, in March 2005, I was skeptical too, and rightfully so.  I had very real doubts about the viability of the DS until I played those games.  They made me a believer.  Until then?  I would have taken a PSP over the DS, hands down. 

Okay, sorry for the derail.  Rick was being accused of saying something, and I wanted more information on that accusation.  Back to crucifying him for being a critic.
It wasn't so much a blatant comment he made, more various hints and touches he made in different threads and such.
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Offline TheYoungerPlumber

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #55 on: January 26, 2009, 11:56:55 PM »
I lean towards Rick's attitude right now. I'm not touching the disruptive terminology with a 20-foot pole. However, Wario Land Shake It, Punch Out!, and S&P2 are not good examples of Nintendo not coasting on the Wii. Regardless of their quality (and Wario is awesome), Nintendo isn't developing those internally.

I'm interested to see Justin's thoughts on Ninty failing from a family-friendly angle. I tend to think that Mario Kart Wii is the only good, accessible, family-friendly title the publisher has released since Wii Sports. Wii Fit is kind of a personal product, and Animal Crossing requires a large time commitment and was totally phoned in, anyway.

I reserve my judgement until I see what all Nintendo is developing for Wii MotionPlus. If they have two or more great internal games for the device at/near its launch, I'll consider this to be a "downtime" period for Wii a la N64 and GameCube, and acceptable.

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Offline GoldenPhoenix

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #56 on: January 27, 2009, 12:09:39 AM »
I swear, and I'm going to blunt here, if people really think Nintendo is "coasting" I have little to no respect for that opinion. NIntendo had a HUGE first year of Wii and 2008, while tamer still had several internally developed games. Not to mention the fact you really have to be out of touch to think they aren't working on various games internally as we speak. Whether you like it or not, Wii FIt was a HUGE internally developed "game" which more then likely had large R&D expenses. Don't even get me started on the AC: CF hatred either, it is about as obnoxious and condescending as those that trash Wii Music.

It is absolutely hilarious to hear this talk of "coasting" when the N64 had some of the largest droughts in gaming. Was Nintendo coasting then as well? Or how about the Gamecube? Were they coasting then? Few games were internally developed for GC, many were published. Believe it or not, publishing a game actually takes FUNDING, which is far from "coasting". It is like saying movie studios are "coasting" when they finance or distribute a movie made by another studio.

Anyway I'm done with this. At least it vindicates some of the members here who said that the staff had a very anti-Wii and Nintendo tone. While I will say it definitely is not all the staff, I think this thread proves it is true for some. Only Nintendo (or former) fans will complain even though we've seen Mario Galaxy, Brawl, MP3, LoZ: TP, Mario Kart, and yes even AC stating it is not enough.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2009, 12:14:34 AM by GoldenPhoenix »
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Offline King of Twitch

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #57 on: January 27, 2009, 12:17:53 AM »
Good question... why did Wii Music and why is Wii Sports 2 (almost) taking as long as OOT?
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Offline GoldenPhoenix

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #58 on: January 27, 2009, 12:21:30 AM »
Good question... why did Wii Music and why is Wii Sports 2 (almost) taking as long as OOT?

Wii Music was made in conjunction with a couple of other games from what I understand. Wii Sports 2 is taking 2 and a half years because Nintendo doesn't want to abuse the franchise (like they have with others). Not to mention it may also be because they want to time it so Wii Motion Plus is affordable enough to manufacture on a large scale. I really doubt it has been development since the Wii came out. My guess is that Miyamoto didn't want to do anything with the franchise until they could use it to show off a new attachment. At its heart, Wii Sports 1 was meant to show what the Wii could do, it only makes sense for the sequel to do the same for some other device.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2009, 12:27:54 AM by GoldenPhoenix »
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Offline Djunknown

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #59 on: January 27, 2009, 12:23:19 AM »
Quote
KnowsNothing: We need Rick to come back and whip this board into shape.

Quote
Me: Oh Mr.Powers, where art thou?

Coincidence? ???

Mr.Powers, check this guy out if you've been out of the loop. Some of the posters have danced out around this in this thread, but give it a read so you know what ideas they are talking about; if you get a moment.

Quote
This might just be a one-time reunion, or maybe I’ll go out on tour.
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Offline Kairon

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #60 on: January 27, 2009, 02:10:51 AM »
Well, just got back! *cracks knuckles*

Casual gamers are making up one bell curve, with "core" gamers making up an entirely different bell curve.  Your suggestion that Nintendo is trying to create "bridge titles" suggests Nintendo's own admission that this is the case.

I don't see this as a bad, or even a new thing. Nintendo's whole deal with getting casual gamers into the rest of gaming as general is so that Nintendo can leverage those same new gamers into their strengths. Again, take a look at Mario Kart Wii, whose long sales legs suggest that it's the casuals who are warming to the racer. Or even more interesting, take a look at Kirby, a character who Nintendo created in the NES era SPECIFICALLY as a "beginner's platformer" to bring in new gamers who weren't quite able to tackle Nintendo's bread and butter Mario series.

It's funny that you bring up Mario Kart to defend your point, because I would point to it to defend mine.  How many games outside of Nintendo's stable are making up that high attach rate?  If I were to suggest that out of a six-game attach rate, those games are likely to be Wii Play (because of the cheap Wii-mote), Super Mario Galaxy, Twilight Princess, Wii Fit, Metroid, and Mario Kart ... how happy do you think third-parties are likely to be with that?  49% of all software sold in 2008 was for a Nintendo platform.  And how much of that was made by Nintendo?  Give me that number, and I'll think about conceding your point.

We'll get a better picture of 2008 numbers when Nintendo releases financial statements that expose those topics.

But with regards to the amount of third party sales on the Wii... let us consider some recent sales revelations from these past months. More third-party software sold on the Wii than any other console during last November and December. It doesn't matter what percentage that is if it's just, simply... a bigger number to begin with.

Yet beyond that, I would like to direct your attention to some charts that Iwata presented last April, conveniently reported here on our very own NintendoWorldReport. As you can see, it is true that Nintendo took up a significant percent of sales on the Wii, 40% in the latter halves of 2006 and 2007 (Nintendo dominated early 2007 due to a third-party drought and Nintendo's willingness to release games in that time period whereas the rest of the industry is Q4-fixated). Seems to play into concerns about third-party marketshare right? BUT... take a look at the DS sales comparisons...

From 2004-2006, Nintendo DOMINATED the DS, even more so than the Wii. But three years into the DS' lifespan, third parties started taking up a significant percentage of the sales. I believe that the DS platform looks like a Sony Platform or Microsoft platform once it matured into year 3: a real third-party-centric sales machine. Now, This doesn't mean that the same thing will happen to the Wii, but Nintendo CEO Iwata argued that it would.

The problem is that they've realized, much like the TV networks, that they can spend less money (thereby making more money) by giving us shallow game experiences and a nifty plastic add-on ... the gaming analogue of Reality TV.

Wow, really? So... Wii Music taking up Miyamoto's attention, and taking two years to develop is somehow Nintendo being cheap? So EAD's groundbreaking work on Wii Fit, designing something never seen before with a wholly new hardware concept is considered coasting? Is Mario Kart somehow NOT a major project from Nintendo all of a sudden? Does Brawl count for nothing? Is bankrolling everything from 2D sprite-based platformers (Wario Shake It!) to the a fourth iteration of a horror franchise (Fatal Frame 4) cheap? Is courting exclusives like Monster Hunter Tri or Dragon Quest X lazy?

Or let's go somewhere else with this... Have you even considered that Nintendo's R & D costs have TRIPLED since the Wii's launch?

Oh yeah, and I'm sorry, I have to say this. I'm not a TV watcher in general, more of a netflix guy, foreign movies, classics, BBC miniseries, all that jazz. But I LIKE watching TLC's "What Not to Wear" (this show is a fascinating exposure of our sense of self-image) and a couple months ago was rapt with attention watching the end of Cycle 10 of America's Next Top model via on-Demand TV. My little cousin knew who would win already, we were watching reruns... but I didn't.

Just because something is Reality TV doesn't mean it's bad, and I think it's close-minded to make blanket assumptions like that, or even bring that into this discussion as an intended slight.

Second, the quality of the third-party titles doesn't come close to approaching first-party efforts, and further, that's it's a more or less intentional effort on the part of Nintendo.  Partly because it brings in licensing monies, and party because poor third-party software pushes people towards first-party software.  As support for that viewpoint, I can only point to the disastrously bad Super Monkey Ball for Wii.  That game should have been a home-run, and in an era where Nintendo was quality testing third-party software, it would have been.

I think that the line of argument rising from this ludicrous claim has been pretty much closed already, thanks to the efforts of various posts, including Jonathan Metts chiming in to state that Nintendo has not had concept-approval since the iron-fist days of Yamauchi. The line of thought about Nintendo encouraging poor third-party game quality is utterly outlandish, and I absolutely can't believe it was even put forward here.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2009, 02:23:17 AM by Kairon »
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Offline Plugabugz

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #61 on: January 27, 2009, 03:53:01 AM »
Plugabugz: Dark Side of the Moon would have been a MUCH better example, though perhaps at the risk of seeming hyperbolic.  :-)


That may have been a better choice. I chose Back to Black simply because it was a (what i reckon to be) an interstellar jump from the first album to the second, and it happened recently enough for everyone to know it ;)

A good example, back to games, is both Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii practically fighting amongst themselves for the #1 wii games position here in the UK. Things continue to sell but those 2 continue to just sit there since release (except when both of them fell out completely because of stock constraints).

Offline OptimusPrime

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #62 on: January 27, 2009, 04:35:17 AM »
OptimusPrime brings up an intriguing argument about the Wii being a disruptive product.  But again, the problem here is that a truly disruptive product is disruptive only to COMPETITORS and to other industries, not to partners, licensees, and such.  One thing I've noticed is that Nintendo likes to toss a word like "disruptive" around like it's a good thing.  It's not.

For the Wii to be called truly disruptive, it would have to be threatening the business model of a previously unrelated industry, or it would have to give Nintendo such an obvious competitive advantage that everyone else would have to take a back seat.  Neither has happened.  If you want to call the Wii disruptive to anything, perhaps it's to other forms of entertainment that it mimics with motion controls (like bowling), and even that's a stretch, since I don't hear tennis racket manufacturers complaining.

No, the problem here is that Nintendo has simply created a business model where they lowered development costs at the same time increasing profit margins.  They've manage to do this by realizing that there was a market that doesn't care about quality or depth and for whom a short, repeatable play experience is acceptable.  Why spend money creating an epic game when you can lower your costs 90% by making a game some people will enjoy playing for just an hour or two?
Well
1) That's why I referred too content-character of the Industry. Because consoles as a product are driven by content, you need content providers. Nintendo, with making the Wii disruptive has also disrupted every content provider on the planet (excep a few who quickly adapted or new entrants in game-development), so you're argument against my argument is moot, i allready had incorporated the argument in my argument (phew...). Now I don't know if Nintendo accounted for this, maybe they thaught everyone would follow sweet after they become the market leader with the seoncd scenario being Nintendo going bust.
2) The Wii is actually a very text-book example of a disruptive innovation, except the text-book doesn't exist that long though. A Disruptive innovation is a product that is inferior on the dimension of quality that it's customers historical have valued but is cheaper and more accessible then the established powers (Sony and MS). The Wii is this.
A disruptive product first aims at market oppurtunities away from the established powers, aka the lower tiers. The Wii was from the ground-up designed to be marketed to well...everyone. Again, check.
A Disruptive product does not have to have innovative features, it can also exist out of already existing technology/components but in a new bussiness model which represent new vlaues and processes. The argument that Rick uses that NIntendo just made a bussniness model that benefits them actually makes it fit the disruptive description (wha??).

What Rick says implies that the Wii has a new bussniness model based on casual games (which is a new value for a console maker)...a disruptive product can also just be a new bussniness model representing new values and processes. So yes, Nintendo having this new bussniness model is a sign of it being disruptive, that it's based on casual games is a sign of a new value and so of being disruptive, the last thing are the processes. Well let's take WiiFit and Wiimusic or even Nintendogs. Let's compare the date we know these games where in development and when they were released. Notice how for all three games this has been around 2 years! That's the difference in proces, Nintendo makes its "casual" games with its best people and giving them ample time. This let's them create the best game possible in regard to the market it is aimed at and can be seen as one the reasons why these games sell so good for so long, they're just bloody well made. This is also why Nintendo doesn't really make sequels out of these games: they don't want to satuarate the market and the game they have now is good enough.

It's clear that Rick does not understand the nature of disruptive innovations, as can be seen of him cramming it in his traditional think-structure.
1) Disruptive products do not compete with established powers from the get go. They first need to built up their base-market (the lowest tiers which are ignored by the established powers anyways), after which they will move up the tiers trough sustaining inovations (WiiMotion plus). At some point in moving up they will bump up against the established powers.
2) Disruptive products take time to be established and become the awesome force that strikes down estalished powers. The musket needed 150 years before it replaced knights and bows during the last decades of the 16th century with the Maurits reform. Steam engines needed decades of redesigning and refining before they became center-piece of the Industrial Revolution. The iPod needed 3-4 years before it got to the "Almighty White"-status it has received. So maybe you could excuse the Wii for not being such a force that pushes out it's competitors. But rest assured, the Wii is becoming it.
3) disruptive innovations not a good thing? Sure they are...if you're not a nostalgic-driven old fart. Disruptive Innovations are the things that push mankind forward in terms of technology. The disruptive innovation of farming made mankind settle, the disruptive innovation of metallurgy made mankind into warring city-states...well ok, maybe not always good. But steam-engines, PC's, the internet, the Enlightment are all disruptive products (now those four I like to see as Disruptive Hotbed products since all four ushered in a new technologic era and caused a lot of other disruptive innovations). And there are always people against it. There are examples of regions in germany who re-inforced serfdom to compete with steam-engines in the textile sector. The internet is still making people who hide behind author rights to maintain their markets very mad, the Enlightment made a whole bunch of people (nobles, clergy, princes, kings) uneasy, power to the people? Absurd! What good could come from that!

What Rick does is trow around some stuff he has seen, crams it in his traditional structure and then claim it must be like this because it makes to most sense to him. Disruptive innovations means that a new structure, thinking and logic is being formed ready to take over the tradtional one. So his methods of forming arguments are allready by default wrong which makes his arguments wrong. It sounds harsh, but this is mankind's history in a nutshell: a very long march of constant change in everything. Rick, I welcome you to the gaming's equivalent of old farts mumbling about the "good ole days".

Now again, what he does is not useless. His traditional structure thinking does still apply to MS and Sony, it just fails horrendously against the market leader. Also he gives a social relief to people who refuse to adapt to the new change, which stops them from going into bloody revolts so to say.

Short: he's wrong, what he's complaning about is third parties fault of non-adapting to something very natural in the world: change. And he can't see why he's wrong because of the same reason.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2009, 04:42:46 AM by OptimusPrime »
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Offline Kairon

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #63 on: January 27, 2009, 05:31:23 AM »
I thought that the remaining point to be argued was third-party performance on the Wii? I think we've already agreed that Nintendo has been successful, and that their success hasn't come through neglect, but by making smarter decisions and putting their best people on the job.

Indeed, the only remaining question left in my mind isn't whether Nintendo has generated a hard-earned success and a disruptive product, but whether they're leaving everyone else behind, for better or for worse. Rick's original write-up implies that he believes that Nintendo is leaving the rest of the industry in the dust, and that the only ones who will emerge out of the other side of the tunnel are the very few companies and games and gamers who are directly aligned with this ascendant Nintendo.

I too share this concern, and for the same reason I think Rick has it: I'm a Nintendo fan, through and through. And I'm a Nintendo fan who enjoyed River City Ransom on the NES, Pieces on the SNES, Turok 2 on the N64, and Cubivore on the GC. As Nintendo disrupts this industry, and creates exciting and surprising new experiences on the way that I never thought possible, from Wii Fit to Metroid Prime 3, I want more, and I look to third parties to provide for me. To me, Nintendo's disruption is entirely based on a single premise: Games can be more diverse and inventive than we have trapped ourselves into believing. I want to see other companies pursue that belief just as I believe Nintendo themselves have pursued it.

It's not a question of whether the Wii is a disruption. It's not a question of whether Nintendo deserves success or not. It's not even a question of whether someone likes Wii Music or not. It's a question of whether Nintendo has to go it alone, or whether there are others out there brave, inventive, and hungry enough to do some disruptions of their own.

If Nintendo is "saving the industry," as some would argue, I'd be disappointed to find out that they have to do it alone.
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Offline Justin Nation

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #64 on: January 27, 2009, 05:59:15 AM »
Not sure what drama there is/was with someone leaving the forums or whatever else due to negativity on this site about Nintendo but really, precisely what value would the site have if it were only worshiping mindlessly at the altar of Nintendo? Especially with their success with the Wii it isn't like being critical is losing them money, especially to this market segment who is less likely to read websites (at least beyond the reviews/previews), so then why do you think the criticism is here?

Rick and I both in particular have always been extremely critical of Nintendo and their policies because we'd like to see them not only be successful today but in the future as well. As we've now seen with not only Nintendo losing their lead in one generation to Sony but then ironically 2 generations later winning it right back being complacent and comfortable in the lead doesn't keep you in first forever, and perhaps not even for long. Now, granted, the weaknesses of Sony and Nintendo are very different animals. Sony's weakness is arrogance and a blindness to anything other than their agenda to release the end-all-be-all entertainment hub in your living room no matter what the cost (especially blind when many people with a good income like me don't like all-in-one devices for the jack of all trades master of none-ness). Nintendo's is outright greed... it has visibly driven all of their worst decisions over time: reluctance to let go of cartridges, traditional heavy-handedness in third party involvement, Rick's point about the preponderance of plastic add-ons and accessories that dominate more space for the Wii than any other system to date... it has its place but it can be annoying too and it can certainly blind you to the rug coming out from under you.

So I'm not sure, for myself, what the problem would be with being critical. Hell, Rick and I were giving 30+ hours a week to sites discussing the crown jewels of Nintendo's "failure" years with the N64 and GameCube trying to both defend and push Nintendo back into the ring... requiring quite an active conspiracy theory to reconcile as us ultimately being here only to bring them down. Yes, we gave up our time, lives, and in my case one full-time job to then go into hibernation and then dump all over Nintendo to bring them down right when they finally hit the big time. MWUAHAHAHA! Nobody would ever suspect it!
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Offline KDR_11k

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #65 on: January 27, 2009, 06:32:40 AM »
It's fine to be critical but it's silly to critique things that aren't issues or blame Nintendo for things they didn't do. Like blaming Nintendo for the flood of shovelware. The only part they had in that was taking #1, shovelware always follows the leader (I think the HD consoles have surprisingly little shovelware compared to the PS2, all that development has to go somewhere).

Offline OptimusPrime

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #66 on: January 27, 2009, 06:59:15 AM »
The real issue here is actually a much deeper structural one but also very simple: we're in a transitional phase. Being in a transitional phase means growing-pains from the emerging side and outright refusal with some minor adapting from the established side. Now this doesn't mean you can't be critical and say "well emergent X should have done this and this to make the transition easier" but that is using hindsight. Applying a disruptive innovation is for the disruptor itself a shot in the dark, it does not know what will happen afterwards, so it can also not know what growing pains will happen.

Now I would like to call into the defense against Nintendo's greed arrogance that Nintendo could not be doing what it does without it. Nintendo is a very unique company in the industry with only Blizzard as a kind of equivalent. Nintendo owns the majority of its own stock (trough Yamauchi and itself as company combined), it's excutive board is full of people with backgrounds in making games and it has a huge warchest. Now this give Nintendo some possiblities that no other game-company has:
1) It can do whatever it wants and pay for it themselves
2) It does not have to listen to stockholders or investors in the same degree as other companies in the industry
3) It can say "screw you" to some departments that other companies can not (marketing and financial ones in specific)
The greed-arrogance is a bit a neccessary evil to keep Nintendo...well Nintendo. Not to say that the greed-policies of Nintendo do not create very bad decisions, it does. But Nintendo choose to stick with cartridges and it's heavy-handed third-party policy for the same reason why the big third parties are refusing proper support for the Wii: it seemed the most logic from their established company-structure.

So being critical towards Nintendo is a good thing, but not being critical to third-parties for the same reasons...that's a bit hypocritical?

But as how 2009 seems to be forming in some kind of high-quality exclusives Wii-landslide...it seems more and more companies are willing to adapt. Also you can count that 90% of all the new game-companies to be or have formed will jump on the Wii since they don't have the means to do anything in HD.
So yeah, it's a pity that Nintendo seems to be leading the charge on its own but eventually, market forces will make the others follow, it's just too bad we're in that transition now so it looks like not much is happening.
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Offline Justin Nation

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #67 on: January 27, 2009, 08:53:06 AM »
Well, you can't necessarily blame Nintendo for a phenomenon like shovelware but at the same time when you're somebody who has seen the industry rise and fall like with the Atari 2600 you can't help but be a little concerned. We're seeing a glut of what had traditionally been non-gamers come rushing into the industry. Everyone is happy as hell and seeing growth for the games industry with an entirely new demographic on the scene. Terrific! It truly is great.

BUT

As someone who personally got at LEAST 8 people who are family or friends into the Wii who had never owned game systems before or weren't terribly excited about the systems they had. Hell, 3 of them I got in line and purchased their Wii for them when they were tough to get and I still would get a tip about where or when they'd be somewhere. They were stoked about the Wii and for good reason. Thing is, for most of them 3 or 4 "casual" titles later they're on the wrong course... their interest is dwindling. Whether or not this is Nintendo's fault, they bought the bad game true, the fact is their opinion and the opinion of people like them will certainly impact Nintendo greatly. Getting the people in makes some great cash and is terrific, if they get discouraged too quickly though you will not only lose them but you may lose them for a long time as they feel burned.

This is the Atari 2600-ish scenario I'm talking about. Granted, the hardcore gamer crowd can sustain AT LEAST 2 major systems regardless of the casual market so it won't be a total crash. Even so, acting as if shovelware isn't Nintendo's problem is highly incorrect. It may not be directly their fault, it may be incredibly difficult for them to stop, but nonetheless this new "casual" gamer they're attracting is a fragile market segment who are prone to bad decisions and like it or not they'll take it out on Nintendo by hanging up their Wii-motes in disgust and potentially ignoring their next system for spite.

I plan to discuss this and expand into more things they could certainly be doing better in a new blog soon but this is a serious problem for them that they need to take seriously for the good of their bottom line and for the sake of the overall industry itself. Legitimize and fully suck in the casual market while they're there for the taking, miss or blow the opportunity and that market may not be back or at least anytime soon. If greed is their motivator think greed in the long run, not just now.
Justin Nation
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Offline KDR_11k

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #68 on: January 27, 2009, 09:34:08 AM »
Look, shovelware didn't crash the PS2 (and now that system has a flood of Singstar and Buzz versions that are not going to be bought by hardcore gamers), why would it crash the Wii?

Sales are going mostly towards quality games, even Carnival Games is said to be pretty good if you want to play carnival games. I don't think the data supports the theory that "casual" gamers are just randomly buying games and end up finding Sturgeon's Law the hard way. The sales aren't scattered randomly, they are concentrated. Concentrated at a few top titles. That concentration must have a reason and I don't think it's just the frequency of TV ads.

13% of the Wii titles make up 80% of the sales. If any significant portion of the Wii's userbase bought games at random that could not be possible. On the other consoles it's 20% that make up 80% of the sales, that means their sales are MORE spread out. Something must be guiding Wii owners to buy the same games as other Wii owners. The system has a tie-in ratio of 5-6, that means the average library will have one game that is not part of the top 13%.

Offline RickPowers

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #69 on: January 27, 2009, 11:25:07 AM »
Wow, Justin managed to make my point, and did it succinctly?  :)

The main thesis of my argument is that Nintendo is doing very well financially, and the numbers are hiding a terrible secret ... they are starting to lose the very same market that they carved out for themselves, and they're losing it because even casual gamers will enjoy more complex games once you've whetted their appetite.  Sadly, those games aren't coming fast enough, and interest is dwindling.  The point is that the games that the "core" gamer is waiting for are ironically the same ones that the "casual" gamer wants.  The sales numbers hint strongly at that point.

Taking the Reality TV analogy a bit further, look at American Idol.  Still has the strongest ratings of almost any show on TV, but ratings are dropping and they're trying to find ways to fix it, like adding a fourth judge.  Dig into those ratings a bit further, and you uncover the terrible secret ... the people watching American Idol most are not the ones they were trying to attract.  Turns out it's older people, and not the teenagers sought after by advertisers.  Trust me when I tell you that there was a bit of shock when they finally realized that.

I'm hoping that Nintendo will realize that their short-term success has a potential long-term cost, and maybe the financial crisis just has me a little pissed at companies so focused on the short-term that they ignore the potential pitfalls, but this is an easily solvable problem as long as Nintendo isn't so focused on this new market that they fail to see that they've done exactly what they're claiming to have done and can't capitalize on it.

And before I forget, while you make some very good points, OptimusPrime, essentially saying I don't know what I'm talking about when it comes to disruptive innovations is just not accurate.  Two of the research papers I wrote in business school were about disruptive innovation, and deep within all your analysis you're missing the one important detail ... Nintendo is also disrupting the people that they need to succeed WITH them, and that is not the kind of disruption any company wants.  A successful, healthy business is about having multiple, long-term revenue streams.  Licensing is one of those streams for Nintendo, and if third-parties can't replicate Nintendo's success, that revenue stream is going to dry up.

Nintendo has not disrupted "every content provider on the planet."  Despite Nintendo's original desire to have the Wii be a message board, news center, etc ... it's just not being used like that.  A great many people are consuming other kinds of content on other devices ... Xbox 360, PS3, iPhone, etc.  The Wii is not a disruptive product.  You might be able to claim that for the controller, but if that were true, Xbox 360 and PS3 would have clones by now, and while they've researched it, there's no need.  Casual games on those systems are doing just fine.

Nintendo's business model is disruptive, but again, I would suggest not in the "textbook definition", and certainly not in a way that is healthy for their long-term success or the success of their partners.  Apple's business model for the iPod and iTunes was disruptive, but their success also translated to success for their partners.  Nintendo doesn't have full control over their business model; they knew where was money to be made and moved there with a product that market wanted.  That's just classic business strategy, not a true disruptive business model.

And this will be your only warning about hurling insults ("old fart") ... attack the ideas freely, but leave personal attacks out of it.
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Offline Peachylala

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #70 on: January 27, 2009, 12:01:15 PM »
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The main thesis of my argument is that Nintendo is doing very well financially, and the numbers are hiding a terrible secret ... they are starting to lose the very same market that they carved out for themselves, and they're losing it because even casual gamers will enjoy more complex games once you've whetted their appetite.  Sadly, those games aren't coming fast enough, and interest is dwindling.  The point is that the games that the "core" gamer is waiting for are ironically the same ones that the "casual" gamer wants.  The sales numbers hint strongly at that point.
Um... here's the thing, it takes a long time for Nintendo's core games to go through the development cycle. Anyone who has stuck with Nintendo's systems knows this, which is why they release B-rated titles because these games fill out a release gap, and they sell. The GCN saw four Mario Party titles and a slew of spin-offs, but the Wii has only seen one and a couple of Mario sport titles. Why? Simple, the GCN was suffering for an audience. The Wii has an audience, but the declining interest everyone is harking about towards the Wii is, personally, just a cheap ass pot shot towards the Wii. With all the BS that happened last generation, I was planning on giving up on console games because nothing really changed. Then Nintendo showed off the Wii, and I was sold. Why? Because, whether you like it or not, there has to be change.

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Taking the Reality TV analogy a bit further, look at American Idol.  Still has the strongest ratings of almost any show on TV, but ratings are dropping and they're trying to find ways to fix it, like adding a fourth judge.  Dig into those ratings a bit further, and you uncover the terrible secret ... the people watching American Idol most are not the ones they were trying to attract.  Turns out it's older people, and not the teenagers sought after by advertisers.  Trust me when I tell you that there was a bit of shock when they finally realized that.
American Idol isn't that great of a show. Sure, outside of Simon's snarky comments (to people who deserve it, mind you) and the horrible first auditions, it's just an over-the-top game show about people singing. If I wanted to choose any Reality TV show I would watch in good taste, I would pick Gene Simmons Family Jewels or TMZ (shut up it's funny).

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And this will be your only warning about hurling insults ("old fart") ... attack the ideas freely, but leave personal attacks out of it.
Attacking forum posts = a very good time waster. =D

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Offline GoldenPhoenix

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #71 on: January 27, 2009, 12:23:36 PM »
Funny, I recall in one of my Business classes praise of the Wii and how it disrupted and innovated the market. I have far more respect for him because of his experience in business, and I'd gladly turn to him in regards to defending that case over someone else, including myself. I'm willing to bet his knowledge and experience far outweigh anyone here when it comes to knowing what is or is not a disruptive business strategy and what is a GOOD business strategy, considering he was CEO of various companies all over the world. Nintendo has been extremely profitable for years, I think they know what they are doing even if you wrote two research papers and stated that the Wii name would chase away casual gamers. Sorry if I don't take your business expertise that seriously compared to someone that actually does have a ton of real world experience.


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precisely what value would the site have if it were only worshiping mindlessly at the altar of Nintendo?

Maybe when these arguments have been beaten to the death that people are frankly sick of it. Maybe because of the fact these ridiculous arguments have been chasing people away? Then again individuals like Rick Powers are not really apart of the community and seem to step in to stir things off with no regards to the community. Like a certain someone that has been a valuable member of the community for years, who just left a couple days ago because of stuff like this and if various staffers even cared about the community would at least tone this down for a little while. But all they care about is spouting their "Nintendo is actually being stupid in the long term" rhetoric masked by "Oh it is for their own good". Not to mention the fact that Nintendo seems to take the most flak with people that are never happy whether they are on top or not.

« Last Edit: January 27, 2009, 01:32:33 PM by GoldenPhoenix »
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Offline Ian Sane

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #72 on: January 27, 2009, 01:15:50 PM »
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Look, shovelware didn't crash the PS2 (and now that system has a flood of Singstar and Buzz versions that are not going to be bought by hardcore gamers), why would it crash the Wii?

Yeah the PS2 had shovelware but it also had awesome third party support.  Aside from the odd Xbox or Gamecube third party exclusive pretty much every notable third party game showed up on it.  So no one identified the PS2 with its crap because it had all this awesome stuff.

Much like the Cube the Wii is in the situation where often the major third party games are released for every console BUT the Nintendo one.  The PS2 never had that.

Let's make a list:
Soul Calibur IV
Bioshock
Virtua Fighter 5
Grand Theft Auto IV
Devil May Cry 5
Fallout 3

And upcoming:
Resident Evil 5
Final Fantasy XIII
Street Fighter IV

All of those are a pretty big deal.  The PS3 and Xbox 360 all got them but the Wii didn't and there are no plans for the Wii to ever get them.  When the PS2 was the market leader it got those games every time plus a whole bunch of other exclusives.  The Wii gets the shovelware of a market leading console but doesn't get the major third party exclusives or multiplatform games.  Dragon Quest X was such huge news because the Wii never really had a third party announcment like that before.  We always got spin-offs or last-gen ports or obvious junk with the odd decent but clearly not high profile release here and there.

So YES the glut of shovelware could hurt the Wii because it isn't hidden behind all these awesome third party games like the PS2's shovelware was.  It is part of the Wii's identity.

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I reserve my judgement until I see what all Nintendo is developing for Wii MotionPlus. If they have two or more great internal games for the device at/near its launch, I'll consider this to be a "downtime" period for Wii a la N64 and GameCube, and acceptable.

I think that's fair.  Nintendo really lost me with that lousy E3 and Punch-Out and S&P2 are not enough to win me over.  As someone already pointed out they're not developed by Nintendo internally and I want something from EAD, IS or Retro that really knocks my socks off.  That'll make it or break it for me.  They just bust out Wii-makes and Wii Sports 2?  Then I'm buying a PS3 and then my Wii will probably get almost no playtime at all and my Nintendo fandom will just fade away as I had to get another console to satisfy my gaming tastes.  I really hope they blow me away and win me back.  It would be nice if it wasn't just more sequels too.  As good as Super Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3 are the lack of new franchises for core gamers feels like coasting to me as well.  Sequels are an easy way to keep the fans on board and it feels like they're abusing that.  Like "we don't have to bother making something fresh and different for the old fans because we just need to trot out Mario every once and a while and they'll stay in line."  I hear all this talk about innovation with the Wii but from a core gamers perspective I don't see it at all.

I don't think the Wii truly deserves to be the market leader in that it probably has the weakest lineup of the three consoles.  If the rest of the world realizes that then Nintendo would be in trouble.  But I felt the same way with the DS and they managed to turn things around any actually make a portable worthy of being number one.  If they can do that with the Wii then they'll be fine and we'll have a much better console.  Nintendo should certainly not assume that the Wii as is is all that's required to remain number one.

Offline GoldenPhoenix

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #73 on: January 27, 2009, 01:17:46 PM »
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I don't think the Wii truly deserves to be the market leader in that it probably has the weakest lineup of the three consoles.  If the rest of the world realizes that then Nintendo would be in trouble.

In your opinion, I find the Wii to have the most diverse lineup of all three. It has games for everyone. Also I thought you were warned about stuff like this?

Oh wait you were!

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Quality and sales don't always go hand in hand.  I do know that Nintendo doesn't really deserve their number one spot.  They don't have the best lineup of games.  If you base it on quality the Wii doesn't deserve to be number one.

From the head guy. Lindy Luthor.

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Ian, please refrain from making these types of outlandish comments.  I can see where this thread is going and I don't like it.  It doesn't have to go that direction.  Thanks.

I do find it funny though, if Nintendo would have listened to Ian, Rick or others here chances are they would have even less market share. It was because of them taking a big chance on the casual market that they are even number 1. The "core" sure didn't get them there.

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hen I'm buying a PS3

::prays that Ian does::
« Last Edit: January 27, 2009, 01:25:44 PM by GoldenPhoenix »
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Offline NWR_Lindy

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Re: Rick’s Rant - Episode 5: Powers Strikes Back
« Reply #74 on: January 27, 2009, 01:33:33 PM »
I'm locking this thread so everybody can go back to their respective corners.
Jon Lindemann
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