Topic: Research Firm Predicts Industry Growth

[Bloodworth]

Sony to remain strong, but Microsoft and Nintendo predicted to gain marketshare.

DFC Intelligence Releases New Market Forecasts for the Video Game Industry    

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 29, 2005--According to the latest forecasts from DFC Intelligence, the new video game console systems from Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony are expected to increase worldwide interactive entertainment software sales from about $18 billion in 2004 to about $26 billion in 2010. The forecasts have three independent scenarios for industry growth, a best case scenario for the Sony PlayStation 3, a best case scenario for the Nintendo Revolution and a best case scenario for the Microsoft Xbox 360. Under each scenario, sales for interactive entertainment software surpass the $25 billion level in 2008.    

"The video game industry continues to exceed our expectations," said DFC president David Cole. "The next generation of console systems will connect to broadband networks right out of the box and this should significantly expand revenue possibilities." Cole also claimed that there is room in the marketplace for all three major systems. "With a true worldwide marketplace and increasing ownership of multiple systems, this is not a winner take all situation. Instead it is about how profits can be maximized across the unique installed base of different console, portable, PC and location-based platforms."    

Nevertheless, the report does pick favorites, and under all scenarios, the Sony PlayStation 3 has very strong sales. "With the PlayStation 2, Sony raised the bar on what a game system can do in terms of sales," said Cole. "Until Sony makes a major mistake we have no reason to believe they will not continue that success with the PlayStation 3." On the other hand, from a pure market share basis, DFC forecasts that Microsoft and Nintendo will increase market share in the next generation.    

DFC Intelligence is a market research firm focused on video games, PC games, online games and interactive entertainment. They offer free monthly research briefs to anyone signing up at http://www.dfcint.com/mailing_signup.html. Other DFC Intelligence reports include The Business of Computer and Video Games, The Online Game Market, and Market Leaders in the Video Game and Interactive Entertainment Industry.

[Ian Sane]

It seems kind of premature to suggest Nintendo gaining marketshare when we don't know much about the Rev yet.  But then analysts don't know sh!t about the gaming industry so they probably don't realize how important it is to see what games are planned and such.  This is a "best case scenario" but even then we can't make a fair assumption.  If Nintendo revealed that the Rev is 2D, black & white, costs $10000, and uses one button for controls then survival would be the "best case scenario".  We realistically don't know anything yet.

Still Nintendo increasing their market share would be a big deal since they've, well, NEVER done that.  Each Nintendo console has had a smaller market share than the previous one.  I would be pretty damn impressed if they went up for once.  That's exactly what I want to see from Nintendo, provided they increase market share without changing into a developer I don't like.

[vudu]

Shut up.

[ThePerm]

he's right Ian I mean....anyways

if the prices for the next generation are rediculous for what the graphics produce then nintendo might gain some marketshare.

[Spak-Spang]

I think this prediction is really baseless.  It just takes into account the current generation and is very lazy.

Really there are too many questions left open the start of next generation to really predict anything...that is what makes this next generation interesting.  If I didn't already know I want a Revolution, I wouldn't buy a new system this year...I would wait until December of 06 to figure out the market.  Because who knows who the end market leader will be.

Microsoft:  Has a huge potential with the early launch, cheap price, and aggressive gathering of 3rd party supports that appeal to American and Japanese audience to gain lead marketshare.

Sony:  Is aggressively marketing itself as the "new" all in one box.  New HD DVDs.  New video game system.  Perhaps even an operating system to be a desktop computer.  This wonder device could do it all.  Will that help or hurt it?  Specially with such a high price tag.

Nintendo:  Appears to be learning from its mistakes each generation.  It finally realizes  they are in a fight for their life and has a new direction and drive.  Nintendo understands they aren't the top dog anymore, but is now striving to redefine itself.  This generation the redefining of Nintendo could just redefine the gaming industry and lead to Nintendo's rebirth are market leader.

The press assumes Sony has this generation in the bag since they won the last two generations.  But remember Nintendo successfully dominated the NES and SNES generations and lost the market to Sony Playstation.  In reality each generation is a completely new ballgame, and the scores should be erased and start the competition from first quarter instead of assuming its the fourth.

[vudu]

I know Ian's right.  I think everyone knows that research firms' predictions aren't worth anything when it comes to these topics.  I'm just tired of Ian saying the same thing over and over again.  Give it a rest.  Nothing more needs to be said until more information is released.

[Deguello]

If everything analysts said was true, the N64 would have been the market leader, the PSP would currently have an insurmountable lead over the DS, and Sega would still be a live and a console competitor.

That is to say... this is complete guesswork and I can't believe they get paid for it.

[Nephilim]

I agree with the Research Firm
PSP has proven that name alone doesnt sell expensive technology
and unlike dreamcast, 360 launching first will be a blessing to microsoft and getting hold of gamers. Who says Nintendo cant also build on there base?



"But then analysts don't know sh!t about the gaming industry so they probably don't realize how important it is to see what games are planned and such"

Maybe you should check there website before bashing them
http://www.dfcint.com/game_article/dfcfaqs.html

[stevey]

"but even then we can't make a fair assumption. If Nintendo revealed that the Rev is 2D, black & white, costs $10000, and uses one button for controls then survival would be the "best case scenario". We realistically don't know anything yet."

give it a break Ian it stating to piss me off. We do know some thing about the rev.
one we will be wow by the look of the games.
two it will be ceap
three it will have 6 button
so shut up about every little thing that they do wrong or might go bad. We know all we need to know for now. So stop bitch about down side look at the good side of thing like the rev is go to be the system that going to be under $500/400/300/200 so lot of ceap people like me are going to buy it instde of bitch about it too weak and people are going to not buy it because the games are kid~dy because it uses color other that brown, gray, black, and red and are not fps or sex game and blahy blah he ha blah.

[Ian Sane]

"one we will be wow by the look of the games.
two it will be cheap
three it will have 6 button"

What proof do you have of this?  Nintendo has not revealed the price or any screens or the controller.  I'm not saying the Rev will be what I said, just that for all we know it could be.  I'm using it as an example to show how little we know.

We don't really know anything yet.  All we know is what the console looks like, that it will have "wi-fi", that it will have a download service for classic games (though we don't yet know WHICH games), that it will have optional DVD playback, and that it not have HD support (though it's pretty vague on the details).  We also got some confirmations on some rather obvious sequels though not with any details or screens.  That's not nearly enough info to start making accurate predictions, especially ones like Nintendo improving market share since that would be an exception to the rule.  

[ruby_onix]

vudu and stevey:

Ian's not the only one who needs to lighten up.

Seriously.

[ShanD]

I really should get a job at one of these research firms one day. Look at sales prices for about an hour, BS out some report, and get paid for it.

[stevey]

"What proof do you have of this? Nintendo has not revealed the price or any screens or the controller. I'm not saying the Rev will be what I said, just that for all we know it could be. I'm using it as an example to show how little we know."

     So what you dont have to make total Bull Sh!t lies up.
"Nintendo has not revealed the price"
      Reggie said it will be very cheap.
"or any screens or the controller"
      What about the MP3 clip it was a good show off of rev 3d even thou it too early to tell the full power but it look it will be better than what the 360 has and they do have controller and it is done.  

[Nephilim]

Quote
Originally posted by: ShanD
I really should get a job at one of these research firms one day. Look at sales prices for about an hour, BS out some report, and get paid for it.

you relize these guys made a 750 page book on the video game industry and the last 10years of it and it sells for 3,500 US dollars
I doubt they spent 1hour making the report