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« on: November 12, 2011, 01:36:14 PM »
I think 3DS's success depends a great deal in getting the very young demographic. This has always been a BIG part of Nintendo's handheld success - and it is an area where mobile devices aren't really much competition. Here in Mexico, most the kids have DSs, GBAs or even GBCs. 3DS penetration will probably lag by years as is usual here.
I believe 3DS will be hugely successful, though probably a bit less so than DS, which probably represented the peak of the dedicated handheld gaming device market. DSs strengths were in the child market, the pre-teen and early teen girls market, the casual adult market and the "serious gamer" market - especially the female sector of that. Most of my female friends have DSs. Most of them have played Dragon Quest IX. Very few of them own a console - even a Wii. Most of them I suspect will not (unlike me) be early adopters of 3DS. They will go on with DS for some time, but they will switch eventually.
Of these markets, I think Nintendo stands to lose quite a large portion of the casual adult market. This is where portable devices will hit hardest. The other markets, I think it will largely retain. The "serious gamer" market - mostly the male sector, faces competition from Sony as it always did. For the other sectors I mentioned, Nintendo is still the only game in town.
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