Topic: The OFFICIAL Big N rumor thread *bring your own salt*

[BranDonk Kong]

Like I said, we need a "general piracy discussion" thread. We're way off base here. 1:1 means exactly that...1:1. It's not my standard, it's the definition.

[broodwars]

Personally, I think this whole conversation just needs its own thread because it's incredibly boring to read and has next to nothing to do with the actual thread...but that's just me.

[Mop it up]

Rumour: NX cancelled due to piracy.

[ShyGuy]

Here we go, info on the Nintendo Mobile front. Must keep Broodwars entertained!

1) One day to go until Nintendo’s first of two briefings this week. The first app will use existing IP, but don't expect too much from it.

2) Don't get your hopes up too high for Mario. But I heard Nintendo and DeNA are planning to pull out the big guns (bigger IPs) next year.

3) About the membership service, I heard technical challenges made a roll-out earlier in the year impossible (well, this isn't trivial).

4) Another point: according to my sources, Nintendo+DeNA experiment with different business models, so non free-to-play apps are possible.

5) Thank you for reading, and please take all of this with the appropriately sized grain of salt. /end

https://twitter.com/serkantoto

[TOPHATANT123]

I doubt we will hear anything of NX in the upcoming meetings since they have specified on two separate occasions that we will have to wait until next year. Although I would be very surprised if we didn't hear details on the reward system and mobile strategy.

[Evan_B]

I don't care about NX, I care about their other consoles having support until the NX launches Holiday 2017.

[MagicCow64]

The release schedules for both the 3DS and WiiU are so anemic going into next year that I don't understand how one could not expect at least one part of the NX to launch in 2016. Does anyone seriously think Nintendo is holding back a significant pipeline of unannounced games for either console next year?

[Enner]

Well, not a significant pipeline. But something along the Geist/Baten Kaitos Origins years or the Skyward Sword years are a possibility with Nintendo. I don't think it's out of the question that Nintendo would just do a whole lot of nothing for 12-18 months.

[Ian Sane]

I don't think it's out of the question that Nintendo would just do a whole lot of nothing for 12-18 months.

They have done it before but, ****, that would so stupid to do it again.  The Wii practically disappearing off the face of the earth for two years did the Wii U no favours.  If Nintendo thinks that sort of thing is perfectly acceptable yet again then they haven't learned a damn thing and if they haven't learned from their mistakes the NX is already dead.  If they can't get obvious stuff like that right then they won't get the big important stuff right either.

The NX is coming out in 2016 or it might as well come out in 3045 for all the fucking good that any further delay will do Nintendo.

[MagicCow64]

I'm with Ian on this one. If they wait til 2017 they're toast as hardware makers.

I mean, if we're assuming that this fall season to next fall season is the final year of retail releases for WiiU/3DS, what does that consist of?

WiiU: World of Woolly Yoshi, Xenoblade X, Mario Tennis Ultra, Star Fox U, Pokken, Amiibo Festival, Weird Anime Fire Emblem Crossover Thingy, Maybe Zelda U, Maybe Twilight Princess HD, Maybe Pikmin 4

3DS: Uhh. Mario and Luigi: Paper Jam. Happy Home Designer. Triforce Heroes. Hyrule Warriors port. Chibi Robo The Last. I think they're publishing Yokai Watch. I must be missing something.

Even if we assume there are a few Rainbow Curse level spin-off games being held back, between two platforms that's not a great showing, and a lot of the titles are pretty thin. Another full year without even a hypothetical mainline Zelda title would be a graveyard compared to even the last year of the Wii.

[michaelbaysuperfan616]

Nintendo is in a good position to sweep Wii U under the rug and go into NX with everything they got guns blazing. At this point in the Wii's development it was still hard to get hyped because we already knew it wasn't going to be HD, we knew it was going to be focused on "retro" gaming, and we knew that it was going to barely be more powerful than Gamecube, the quote was 2-3 times and that was debunked early on. So right now we haven't yet had any red flags jump out to derail the hype, which is very promising. With Wii U we already knew it was going to be underpowered and feature a head scratching gamepad that has yet to justify it self in the marketplace. Right now we have reports of real support from companies that actually matter, plus we have reports it will feature cutting edge tech, those are the two biggest things that derailed the Wii and Wii U hype train even before the baffling waggle wand took all the thunder out of that big reveal. With Wii the waggle worked out because it was priced right and had a killer app at launch, with Wii U it had nothing at all going for it.

[TOPHATANT123]

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2015/151028_3e.pdf
The release list from Nintendo out today is mostly reliable, although not completely since Brain Training is still on EU's list and it's missing some games like DQ Monsters 3, DQ 11 and Shin Megami Tensei 4F. If we take third parties into account and assume everything will be localised the 3DS would have an excellent year in 2016 although that likely won't happen. There isn't much original coming put in terms of second wave sequels, oh man, new entries in Monster Hunter, Phoenix Wright, Fire Emblem, Shin Megami Tensei, Etrian Odessy, Bravely Second, Picross 3D, Project X Zone and if we're lucky Rhythm Heaven and Dragon Quest. Not to mention game of the year 2016...

[michaelbaysuperfan616]

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2015/151028_3e.pdf
The release list from Nintendo out today is mostly reliable, although not completely since Brain Training is still on EU's list and it's missing some games like DQ Monsters 3, DQ 11 and Shin Megami Tensei 4F. If we take third parties into account and assume everything will be localised the 3DS would have an excellent year in 2016 although that likely won't happen. There isn't much original coming put in terms of second wave sequels, oh man, new entries in Monster Hunter, Phoenix Wright, Fire Emblem, Shin Megami Tensei, Etrian Odessy, Bravely Second, Picross 3D, Project X Zone and if we're lucky Rhythm Heaven and Dragon Quest. Not to mention game of the year 2016...

This is the problem with Nintendo CONSOLE discussions, someone always brings up how great the portable is doing as it somehow has anything to do with the console in question. Nobody is disputing the 3DS is set for releases, this year and next, Wii U is where the droughts are but hey I guess talking about an upcoming Nintendo CONSOLE somehow wouldn't make sense if we didn't also talk about the handheld.

[TOPHATANT123]

3DS: Uhh. Mario and Luigi: Paper Jam. Happy Home Designer. Triforce Heroes. Hyrule Warriors port. Chibi Robo The Last. I think they're publishing Yokai Watch. I must be missing something.

Well that was in response to this, but as for Wii U releases I think what we have coming is decent for the last year of a console and would be about on par with '13 '14 and '15. If we get Q1 Twilight Princess HD and Star Fox, Q2 Pokken Tournament and Lost Reavers, Q3 Genei Ibun Roku #FE and Pikmin 4, and Q4 Zelda Wii U (+ the launch of NX with all of it's launch games) I will be more than satisfied. HD console games take longer to make and require more resources so I fully expect to spend more time with my handheld than with my console.

[Enner]

The NX is coming out in 2016 or it might as well come out in 3045 for all the fucking good that any further delay will do Nintendo.

I'm with Ian on this one. If they wait til 2017 they're toast as hardware makers.

Granted, Nintendo's advertising has been weak for years. Also, I'm going at this as a person that can wait a while.

But this is a problem that can be solved with a good marketing story. Okay, and maybe enough games for the Wii U and 3DS.

My thinking is that whatever perception there is on Nintendo from the enthusiast audience and press won't be any significantly different between 2016 or 2017. Put another way, whatever gamers think of Nintendo has solidified a while ago and any conversions will be few. Meanwhile the wider audience, who is most likely largely ignorant of the daily tumbles of the enthusiast audience, is just as susceptible to a shiny new Nintendo game in 2017 as it would in 2016. And hey, everyone likes the underdog and a comeback story, right?

Personally, I'm hoping for NX in 2017 in order to have a higher quality games at launch. If NX SDKs are only now being sent out to third-parties, a 2016 NX launch would mean third party games that have spent a year in development with Nintendo games that only had a little more time being made. Maybe that works out somehow, but I have my doubts.

Alas, perhaps I am overestimating the patience available for Nintendo these days. I can't discount that I'm a weirdo for saying, "I can wait for you in 2017!" Also, the 3DS is in dire need of a successor.

[michaelbaysuperfan616]

3DS: Uhh. Mario and Luigi: Paper Jam. Happy Home Designer. Triforce Heroes. Hyrule Warriors port. Chibi Robo The Last. I think they're publishing Yokai Watch. I must be missing something.

Well that was in response to this, but as for Wii U releases I think what we have coming is decent for the last year of a console and would be about on par with '13 '14 and '15. If we get Q1 Twilight Princess HD and Star Fox, Q2 Pokken Tournament and Lost Reavers, Q3 Genei Ibun Roku #FE and Pikmin 4, and Q4 Zelda Wii U (+ the launch of NX with all of it's launch games) I will be more than satisfied. HD console games take longer to make and require more resources so I fully expect to spend more time with my handheld than with my console.

My bad, I apologize for the attitude then forgive me friend. I don't buy the HD games take longer story though, Sony, EA, Activision, Microsoft, they don't have any trouble putting out multiple HD games a year that any ONE game could take vastly more resources than every single Nintendo game released in a year. Okay a Star Fox, Metroid, Zelda I see those taking longer but Mario Maker? Mario Tennis? Those don't need any longer in HD than they did before, how much longer does it take to paint a new HD jpeg image for the textures that is all HD takes over SD, larger textures the rest is easily scaleable in the dev software.

[Luigi Dude]

Most of the upcoming 3DS titles are games that have already been released in Japan and are just be localized later for the West.  The 3DS actual future in terms of new content is just as bare as the Wii U.  The signs are pointing pretty heavily to the NX being both a handheld and home console that share the same OS, meaning the 3DS is getting replaced as well next year.

Of course the advantage is the NX is looking to have a pretty impressive launch lineup.  The Wii U had a crappy launch lineup because not only were Nintendo's studio's not prepared for HD, but because after the 3DS terrible sales in it's post launch months, Nintendo shifted most of their resources into 3DS development because the handheld market was more important to them which resulted in Wii U development getting set back in many cases.

With the NX sharing an OS between the systems, not only will several titles outright be shared between the two, but easier development for the console unique titles.  Like say right now Tokyo EAD could be working on a 3D Mario for both the NX handheld and home console.  The handheld version is like 3D Land and will be ready for launch while the home console will be more like the Galaxy games and released May 2017.  Because they share on OS it's easier to reuse all the assists for the games to allow for quicker development unlike right now where they have to basically start from scratched when developing the handheld and home console version of games.  So instead of their studio's having to take 2-3 years to make a new home console version they can make both at the same time and release the bigger home console games less then a year later or in the case of Smash Bros a few months later.


Basically, I wouldn't be surprised if the NX launch lineup for November 2016 is something like Mario 3D Land 2 is exclusive to the handheld, Zelda Wii U port is exclusive to the NX home console and something like a real Animal Crossing will be available on both with cross-play support.  Then in 2017 from here on out you'll have almost a new game every month since some games will get released for both systems at once while the unique titles for one, will get a unique counterpart released for the other months later.

[TOPHATANT123]

3DS: Uhh. Mario and Luigi: Paper Jam. Happy Home Designer. Triforce Heroes. Hyrule Warriors port. Chibi Robo The Last. I think they're publishing Yokai Watch. I must be missing something.

Well that was in response to this, but as for Wii U releases I think what we have coming is decent for the last year of a console and would be about on par with '13 '14 and '15. If we get Q1 Twilight Princess HD and Star Fox, Q2 Pokken Tournament and Lost Reavers, Q3 Genei Ibun Roku #FE and Pikmin 4, and Q4 Zelda Wii U (+ the launch of NX with all of it's launch games) I will be more than satisfied. HD console games take longer to make and require more resources so I fully expect to spend more time with my handheld than with my console.

My bad, I apologize for the attitude then forgive me friend. I don't buy the HD games take longer story though, Sony, EA, Activision, Microsoft, they don't have any trouble putting out multiple HD games a year that any ONE game could take vastly more resources than every single Nintendo game released in a year. Okay a Star Fox, Metroid, Zelda I see those taking longer but Mario Maker? Mario Tennis? Those don't need any longer in HD than they did before, how much longer does it take to paint a new HD jpeg image for the textures that is all HD takes over SD, larger textures the rest is easily scaleable in the dev software.

I'm sure it's easy to up the resolution of a texture but if you want to truly make something look good and take advantage of the hardware I think it would take a lot more time. Nintendo relative to other companies is quite small, like twice as many people at Ubisoft than at Nintendo and Ubisoft doesn't have a hardware division. Ubisoft releases many massive open world games per year but in my personal opinion I think these mass produced AAA games lack the soul of something made by a smaller team with less resources like child of light or grow home.

[michaelbaysuperfan616]

3DS: Uhh. Mario and Luigi: Paper Jam. Happy Home Designer. Triforce Heroes. Hyrule Warriors port. Chibi Robo The Last. I think they're publishing Yokai Watch. I must be missing something.

Well that was in response to this, but as for Wii U releases I think what we have coming is decent for the last year of a console and would be about on par with '13 '14 and '15. If we get Q1 Twilight Princess HD and Star Fox, Q2 Pokken Tournament and Lost Reavers, Q3 Genei Ibun Roku #FE and Pikmin 4, and Q4 Zelda Wii U (+ the launch of NX with all of it's launch games) I will be more than satisfied. HD console games take longer to make and require more resources so I fully expect to spend more time with my handheld than with my console.

My bad, I apologize for the attitude then forgive me friend. I don't buy the HD games take longer story though, Sony, EA, Activision, Microsoft, they don't have any trouble putting out multiple HD games a year that any ONE game could take vastly more resources than every single Nintendo game released in a year. Okay a Star Fox, Metroid, Zelda I see those taking longer but Mario Maker? Mario Tennis? Those don't need any longer in HD than they did before, how much longer does it take to paint a new HD jpeg image for the textures that is all HD takes over SD, larger textures the rest is easily scaleable in the dev software.

I'm sure it's easy to up the resolution of a texture but if you want to truly make something look good and take advantage of the hardware I think it would take a lot more time. Nintendo relative to other companies is quite small, like twice as many people at Ubisoft than at Nintendo and Ubisoft doesn't have a hardware division. Ubisoft releases many massive open world games per year but in my personal opinion I think these mass produced AAA games lack the soul of something made by a smaller team with less resources like child of light or grow home.

Um re-read what I said, textures are the part that takes the longest to do in HD, you have to paint a whole new image upscaling won't work or else it will be ugly like N64 textures were. If you create a 3D model of a character/object you just set the resolution when you output the file its that simple. Most of this stuff is done in super high res and down scaled to SD anyways. What exactly takes longer in a Mario game? The levels are not any larger scale, the models are not any more detailed then before all you get is more objects on the screen and higher res textures, those games are pretty simple. I haven't seen much on Wii U that would have taken any other developer as long to produce as it takes Nintendo.

Even before HD, it took them just as long to release games so again I don't buy the whole games being in HD as the argument, YES what you said about smaller teams that is the real culprit which Nintendo addressed by consolidating their teams recently. But to make Mario Maker in HD would add not a single minute to the actual development time because their artists are likely creating their images in hi res to you know see what they are doing and then exporting those at the targeted lower resolution anyways, most likely always have been.

[Ian Sane]

The NX is coming out in 2016 or it might as well come out in 3045 for all the fucking good that any further delay will do Nintendo.

I'm with Ian on this one. If they wait til 2017 they're toast as hardware makers.

Granted, Nintendo's advertising has been weak for years. Also, I'm going at this as a person that can wait a while.

But this is a problem that can be solved with a good marketing story. Okay, and maybe enough games for the Wii U and 3DS.

My thinking is that whatever perception there is on Nintendo from the enthusiast audience and press won't be any significantly different between 2016 or 2017. Put another way, whatever gamers think of Nintendo has solidified a while ago and any conversions will be few. Meanwhile the wider audience, who is most likely largely ignorant of the daily tumbles of the enthusiast audience, is just as susceptible to a shiny new Nintendo game in 2017 as it would in 2016. And hey, everyone likes the underdog and a comeback story, right?

Personally, I'm hoping for NX in 2017 in order to have a higher quality games at launch. If NX SDKs are only now being sent out to third-parties, a 2016 NX launch would mean third party games that have spent a year in development with Nintendo games that only had a little more time being made. Maybe that works out somehow, but I have my doubts.

Alas, perhaps I am overestimating the patience available for Nintendo these days. I can't discount that I'm a weirdo for saying, "I can wait for you in 2017!" Also, the 3DS is in dire need of a successor.

I think you are overestimating the patience available for Nintendo.  You're the converted.  My general feeling is that in general Nintendo is ignored at best and outright mistrusted at worst.  I see the Wii U as an embarrassing failure and with each year it damages Nintendo's reputation more and more.  Just waiting one year for 2016 seems like a major challenge, let alone two.  Pretty much no one makes games for the Wii U except Nintendo and they're notoriously slow at releasing games.  People like to go with a console that seems like a safe purchase.  A steady flow of games markets a console as a safe bet.  It is good PR for people to see new games on the shelves every week.  It's good to have the gaming press constantly talking about product on your console.  In the past it was the magazines and now it's the web sites.  If you go to a site that covers all systems the Wii U is a footnote and it isn't even because of any perceived bias.  You can't write reviews and previews for games that don't exist.  You can't report news if there is nothing going on.  A gamer that visits these sites will see Nintendo console related news like 10 times a year while he'll see PS4 related stuff every single day.  Because the Wii U is such a non-entity Nintendo gets little exposure so that makes it look like they don't matter.  And any exposure they do get will just emphasize the Wii U's problems and create the impression that the NX will have the same issues.  The last thing Nintendo should want is for people to associate their brand with a lack of games and yet the Wii U has been blowing that trumpet since day one.  Why would any company want to do that for two more years?

[TOPHATANT123]

"When it comes to the scale of software development, Wii U with HD graphics requires about twice the amount the human resources than before" - Shigeru Miyamoto

When you have more detail on screen it stands to reason that if you want to fill that detail it's just going to take longer. Not just resolution but you have more complex lighting , physics and particle effects that come with new hardware. Now for something faux retro like Mario Maker or something like NES Remix I agree more powerful hardware wouldn't drastically increase development time. But the argument that the time taken to develop graphics for a game like Mario 3D Land and Mario 3D World would be identical, I just find it silly.

[Ymeegod]

I wonder why Nintendo never leases out it's own engines.  I would have an teir license agreement based on software sales, if a game does well than pay up royalities; if it bombs, pay nothing.  Something to attract third party developers for making exclusive games on Nintendo platforms.

There's third-party multiplatform engines like Unity but they really don't optimize for Nintendo's products.  Middleware engines .

I would've loved to see a Sonic Game running on SM3DWorld's engine. 

[michaelbaysuperfan616]

"When it comes to the scale of software development, Wii U with HD graphics requires about twice the amount the human resources than before" - Shigeru Miyamoto

When you have more detail on screen it stands to reason that if you want to fill that detail it's just going to take longer. Not just resolution but you have more complex lighting , physics and particle effects that come with new hardware. Now for something faux retro like Mario Maker or something like NES Remix I agree more powerful hardware wouldn't drastically increase development time. But the argument that the time taken to develop graphics for a game like Mario 3D Land and Mario 3D World would be identical, I just find it silly.

You are quoting a man who himself has no hands on involvement in the process whose games require a fraction of the manpower other games in the industry require and it isn't like they don't have that manpower Nintendo is NOT some small developer with twenty or so people they have hundreds of employees working for them.

Call it silly do you work in the industry do you know how things are made? OKAY take Mario Maker, how long does it take YOU to copy and paste items from a pre developed engine? Don't you think Nintendo already has their own in house "mario maker?" or do you honestly think they just built New Super Mario U and 3D World entirely from scratch? Again none of those minor games would require that much additional time no way not the games Nintendo has been making not even Mario Kart, maybe Smash, Maybe Bayonetta 2, MAYBE Star Fox development was increased due to HD but no way any of the other games made by Nintendo on Wii U were.

It takes longer to do animated cut scenes in HD because of the amount of time required to PROCESS and RENDER the animated files but hardly any of Nintendo's games use those. Nintendo has been using that as an excuse for far to long, its the same BS they said about needing to use Carts because loadtimes were an issue and then N64 games didn't benefit at all from carts and CD games didn't lose anything from load times.

A game like God Of War takes longer to do in HD verses the SD version but there is NOTHING on Wii U that would require a significant increase in development time, especially the third tier lazy slop that is all they have left in the works and their Zelda game that is probably more ambitious than they anticipated.

[MagicCow64]

Yeah, I'm not buying that the 3DS has a rosy outlook for 2016. It's taking advantage of the fact that Japanese 3rd parties are still making games for it, and Nintendo is hard up enough to focus on localizations, but if that was a huge asset the Vita wouldn't be dead. The 3DS has ridden hard on strong first party support. I suppose it could have a third wind if Yokai Watch turns out to be a huge phenomenon in the west, but I somehow doubt it. What I'm mainly seeing is that there are no more big releases planned for the platform and there is a baffling absence of even Pokemon Z.

I think it's crystal clear that most of Nintendo's internal firepower has shifted to development for the new hardware platforms, and if that has been managed toward a 2017 launch then they will be dead in the water.

[Wah]

As long as it has a new Pokémon ranger game and a good Pokémon Mystery (one with the personality test back!) I'm sold!