Topic: Switchmas Eve Rumors and Speculations Thread

[MagicCow64]

Not to go full apologist here, but I think placing the blame of the WiiU's failure on the name/marketing isn't quite fair. Consumers don't seem to have had trouble with the equally silly naming conventions of the Xbox brand. I believe there was casual-level misunderstanding about the WiiU, but I don't really think it would have made a huge difference if it was just called Wii 2. Those consumers who would have been enlightened as to the true nature of the system would still have largely skipped the purchase. I can't imagine there were a ton of people eager to purchase a tablet add-on to the Wii who then balked when they discovered it was a unique console. And I'd wager the majority of the ~50 million people who own Xbones and PS4s know exactly what the WiiU is. A tablet-themed console just wasn't going to cut it no matter what.

Likewise, I don't see how a $400 gimmick-less PS4 equivalent would have done much better, either at the launch of the WiiU or later this year with the launch of the NX. For any number of reasons, Nintendo has been pretty well bounced from the "traditional" console market, and the secular outlook for handhelds is pretty dismal. They've got to go in a significantly different direction to keep rolling, as aping (way too late) the dictates of the increasingly ossified PS4/Xbone market is futile. I'm hoping the NX will be a genuine surprise and outside-the-box success, as there's pretty much no way Nintendo will be able to continue making best-in-class software at the volume they do in a world where they become Sega 2.0 or focus on phone games.

[Adrock]

Likewise, I don't see how a $400 gimmick-less PS4 equivalent would have done much better, either at the launch of the WiiU or later this year with the launch of the NX.

It wouldn't, and it won't because Nintendo's problems as a console manufacturer extend far beyond hardware. If it ever wants be taken seriously in the console space again, it will have to address everything. Honestly, I think it begins with beating Sony and Microsoft at their own game, not by copying (since that won't work) but by changing the rules, namely becoming absurdly third party-centric in a different way.

For example, rather than shelling out for exclusives, cut third parties deals on licensing and offer incentives for meeting sales goals which is advantageous for every game, not just the exclusives. Essentially, it's addition by subtraction. Right now, Nintendo gets minimal support and doesn't make a lot on licensing as a result. Find out what Sony charges then charge less. Once Sony and Microsoft catch wind of this, it's a race to the bottom. The goal is to get to the point where most games are released on all consoles with the added benefit of cutting off a stream of revenue from the competition which may discourage buying exclusives. Nintendo makes most of its profits from software, and it's been without support (and the revenue that comes with it) for so long that it's best bet may be to get the playing field as even as possible and let its first party titles speak for themselves.

Anyway, AMD mentioned supplying an APU to a new console in the second half of 2016 in its Q4 financial results briefing. Very subtle. "I don't want to say it's for NX, but it's not not for NX............... It's for NX. Sorry."

[michaelbaysuperfan616]

Honestly their best bet, and they won't do this, is to just make a proper, Nintendo Tablet a true gaming tablet that runs just the apps a gamer needs, maybe a few media apps, a decent web browser, and something like Game Pad where there are buttons on the side and include HDMI output, then done a merging of the console and handheld division.

That won't happen though so we are right back to where we started, speculating on what is plan, what are we on no E, F, I lost count because they keep changing things.

[Ian Sane]

I don't get this idea that Nintendo has to have some different hook or some nonsense to compete with the other guys and that making something conventional won't work.  Nintendo has an advantage in one major area - they're probably the most talented game makers in the world.  If they made something conventional that attracted comparable third party support then the comparison would be the first party games.  That's a comparison that, presuming they doesn't waste time with waggle party nonsense or 2D games that could be done on 20 year old hardware, Nintendo can win.  But instead they make it so that their first party games have to compete against damn near every other game being made and they can't compete with that because of the sheer numbers.

It feels Nintendo is just trying to avoid admitting their mistakes and improving.  "No it can't be that we always **** up simple stuff that any idiot with the slightest familiarity with videogames could get right or that we jerk around our customers and business partners and cut corners and cheap out.  It must be that competing with Sony and MS is completely impossible and hopeless so we need some special gimmick to differentiate ourselves that conveniently allows us to avoid self-improvement, keep up all our bad habits, and never admit we've ever done anything wrong."

When Nintendo puts in an actual effort to release a console that isn't fucked over by some obvious mistake or compromise and it fails THEN you can say it's hopeless and they need to do something different.  But I call bullshit.  They've haven't tried for real in 20 years.

[Adrock]

What's not to get? Nintendo games appeal primarily to Nintendo fans. Releasing essentially identical hardware as Sony and Microsoft is Nintendo asking consumers to abandon PlayStation or Xbox for no good reason. Is Nintendo's software appealing enough to convince people to leave their friends, digital purchases, and familiarity behind? I don't think Nintendo even believes that. It wants to be the "and" company. Nintendo doesn't care if you buy PlayStation or Xbox as long as you buy its hardware too. I'm not saying I agree with that strategy (for the most part, I don't). However, I don't know what you don't get about it.

[Ian Sane]

What's not to get? Nintendo games appeal primarily to Nintendo fans. Releasing essentially identical hardware as Sony and Microsoft is Nintendo asking consumers to abandon PlayStation or Xbox for no good reason. Is Nintendo's software appealing enough to convince people to leave their friends, digital purchases, and familiarity behind? I don't think Nintendo even believes that. It wants to be the "and" company. Nintendo doesn't care if you buy PlayStation or Xbox as long as you buy its hardware too. I'm not saying I agree with that strategy (for the most part, I don't). However, I don't know what you don't get about it.

Nintendo always groups their games with giving up literally everything else.  Give up industry standard features, give up third party support, give up whole genres - give up all of this for Nintendo games.  That is crazy and, yes, only the most devoted Nintendo nutbar would ever put up with that.  Their games do not get to be compared on even footing, while the decision between MS and Sony comes down largely to first party titles.  Go onto GameRankings and look at the top reviewed games of all time and Nintendo holds the TOP THREE spots!  Their games are very highly regarded and not just from Nintendo geeks.

I understand their strategy but I think it's idiotic (the only time it ever worked was when they targeted a new audience with no familiarity with videogames and thus complete ignorance of Nintendo's shortcomings) and insincere because I think the whole thing is that Nintendo is so far up their own ass they base business decisions on delusional ideas that deflect any responsibility for their own failings.  Coming up with excuses to not actually try and hoping some dumb gimmick catches on is easier than addressing legitimate problems rooted deep in the company culture.

If the idea is that Nintendo is some luxury brand that people should buy a second console for then that just demonstrates the strength and marketability of their first party titles.  Why would anyone buy such a product otherwise?  So why should people buy a PlayStation and a Nintendo console to get both Nintendo games and everything else if they could buy ONE console that had it all?  That's what I would rather buy.  It seems arbitrary that I need to buy two.

[MagicCow64]

Again, Ian is repeating the same things he's been pissed off about since someone called him a nerd in the 8th grade for reading a Nintendo Power in the cafeteria.

To make it even harder to pretend not to understand:

Ignore all past history, decision making, alternate realities, etc. This year, Nintendo essentially has to launch a new console. They could maybe squeak by into 2017, but at even greater risk of cementing their irrelevancy. Right now, in today's world, with everything having already played out as it has, there are about ~30 million Playstation 4 owners and ~20 million Xbone owners, and who knows how many equivalent level PC owners. These numbers will all be up by the time the NX launches in late 2016. At that time, what compelling reason would anyone have to spend $400 on another bog standard current gen console with (in a best case scenario for this asinine scenario) feature parity and equivalent third party support? There is a small core of super enthusiasts who will buy everything that's out, but those same people bought the WiiU, which will probably finish at around 15 million sales.

As Adrock pointed out, you'd have to really, really want everything a PS4 offers, plus Nintendo games as well to an extent that you would ignore the network effects of the established PS4/Xbone ecosystems, friend preferences, etc. Who is holding out on buying into this current generation until Nintendo puts out an expensive and mostly redundant console? And if the NX was a second console for you, why would you buy third party games on the NX instead of the other systems? Would anyone buy a $400 Nintendo box? Very few are going for the $300 Nintendo box. The $99 Nintendo box (with great first party games and comparatively storng 3rd party support) only moved ~20 million units.

Nintendo can't wait toil 2020 to jump in with the PS5/Xtooth and hope that they'll suddenly become popular again with a demographic and business ecosystem they don't even like. Nor is there any sense in pushing out a me-too attempt halfway through this generation.

[Ian Sane]

Ignore all past history, decision making, alternate realities, etc. This year, Nintendo essentially has to launch a new console. They could maybe squeak by into 2017, but at even greater risk of cementing their irrelevancy. Right now, in today's world, with everything having already played out as it has, there are about ~30 million Playstation 4 owners and ~20 million Xbone owners, and who knows how many equivalent level PC owners. These numbers will all be up by the time the NX launches in late 2016. At that time, what compelling reason would anyone have to spend $400 on another bog standard current gen console with (in a best case scenario for this asinine scenario) feature parity and equivalent third party support? There is a small core of super enthusiasts who will buy everything that's out, but those same people bought the WiiU, which will probably finish at around 15 million sales.

As Adrock pointed out, you'd have to really, really want everything a PS4 offers, plus Nintendo games as well to an extent that you would ignore the network effects of the established PS4/Xbone ecosystems, friend preferences, etc. Who is holding out on buying into this current generation until Nintendo puts out an expensive and mostly redundant console? And if the NX was a second console for you, why would you buy third party games on the NX instead of the other systems? Would anyone buy a $400 Nintendo box? Very few are going for the $300 Nintendo box. The $99 Nintendo box (with great first party games and comparatively storng 3rd party support) only moved ~20 million units.

I'm the guy who would have replaced the Wii U in 2014 if I could have so I'm the last guy who would suggest that Nintendo doesn't need a new console now.  If anything the fact that the other consoles have grown so much demonstrates the problem in Nintendo waiting as long as they did.

If Nintendo doesn't have something that comes across as a "real" effort then I don't think anyone will take them seriously in the future when the next generation starts and a comparative console is necessary.  Some half-baked cheap pseudoconsole is just going to re-enforce the idea that Nintendo sticks with last gen hardware and dumb gimmicks and is not worth any serious consideration from anyone but the same audience that bought the Wii U.  This is the time for the apology console.  This is the time for them to show everyone they figured their **** out.  Anyone turned off by the Wii U would be equally turned off by another Nintendo console that is essentially following the same design as the Wii and Wii U.

There is to be no more fucking around.  Nintendo plays ball or they're finished as console makers.  To make it with something totally incompatible and different it will have to be really impressive.  I think a better strategy is to win over the Wii U owners (many of which are probably pissed at Nintendo for dropping the ball; each gen Nintendo turns off more of their fanbase with their bullshit) and those who haven't bought a console yet and those that have no beef with owning multiple consoles regardless of price and slowly build things so that next gen they can really attract some attention.

[ThePerm]

The Market is still about 100 million. If there are 30 million ps4 owners, and 20 million xbox one owners then there would still be 50 million people left. Also shiny, new, and if Nintendo is thinking about future glory/past mistakes more powerful then those two. 

Theres talk of a 900p support for the next console, that could be the screen on the controller.  the current one is 854x480

1080p is 1920x1080

Ipads are like 1024x768

900p is probably 1600x900 (based on photoshop's constrain proportion algorithm)

IF I were Nintendo and I wanted to make a beast, but wanted to be lazy about it my specs would be

1.3 ghz amd radeon processor
2 ghz amd 16 core jaguar apu
16gb ram. Divided in some convenient way.
1.24 GHz Tri-Core IBM PowerPC "Espresso" for backwards compatability

so bumping power up about 30% and then doubling the ram. Sony and Microsoft have probably made those family of processors really cheap, and also Nintendo would benefit by getting a newer generation of them.

[Luigi Dude]

The thing is, Nintendo isn't going after Microsoft and Sony's main audience which is 18-34 males.  Nintendo's main audience has always been and will remain kids and families, the ones who bought the majority of their previous systems and currently make up the majority of the over 55 million 3DS that have been sold.  It doesn't matter if some of you like to pretend Nintendo's handhelds don't exist, Nintendo views the home console and handheld audience as the same thing and thanks to handhelds Nintendo is still a major force in the industry.

No surprise that's probably the biggest reason why the NX is shaping to be something where the handheld and home console are more deeply connected even sharing the same OS.  The goal with the NX isn't to take away Microsoft and Sony's audience, it's to make more of Nintendo's own audience buy home consoles again. 

[Evan_B]

Okay so now that we've gotten the whole "Nintendo needs to stop fucking around" and "they've alienated their fanbase" thing down, let's move the conversation in another direction (even though I could argue I don't want "everything a PS4 does" because all it does means jack **** to me).

I believe that, if we're talking a handheld screen, those 900p resolution numbers sound pretty good to me. Which is honestly where I'd expect them since no sane person would tout that as a feature of a home console. To me, the idea of interconnected handheld (which is what the NX we'll be seeing this year is, by the way. Don't forget that) makes so much sense with how Nintendo has handled GBA cables, DS/Wii engine sharing and connectivity, and though Wii U hasn't had much of it, the controller itself is a pretty key example, as well as instances like the 3DS Smash Controller (which has deeper implications, especially getting a handheld engine that mimics a console one down so well and then selling that separate).

I know I've said that a billion times before but that seems to be the theme of this thread anyway.

[michaelbaysuperfan616]

I, and I am sure a majority of Nintendo fans, would be more than happy of they exited the home console business entirely and just made a really kick ass handheld that ALSO allowed TV connectivity and that would be all they needed to do. But no they won't see that either. The console business isn't even MS and Sony, it's all Sony has been since 1995. Microsoft is just pretending to matter all they want is to use Xbox to keep their bigger name relevant.

[broodwars]

I, and I am sure a majority of Nintendo fans, would be more than happy of they exited the home console business entirely and just made a really kick ass handheld that ALSO allowed TV connectivity and that would be all they needed to do. But no they won't see that either. The console business isn't even MS and Sony, it's all Sony has been since 1995. Microsoft is just pretending to matter all they want is to use Xbox to keep their bigger name relevant.

Thing is, handheld-only simply isn't viable. That market has shrunk tremendously since even the 3DS' launch, to the point where Western dev support has been 0 for quite some time. What little support dedicated handhelds have in Japan is rapidly dwindling due to devs focusing all their resources on mobile. I see no reason to believe that another on-the-cheap Nintendo handheld would change that. Honestly, heresy and unrealistic though it may be, it would actually make much more sense for Nintendo to get out of the handheld market entirely and just have a console that can go mobile. Outside Nintendo, console sales are on the rise and games like Splatoon showed that even Japan could still get drawn into console games if you provide enough doujinshi/hentai material.

[Ian Sane]

Nintendo opened Pandora's Box with the Wii and DS, essentially creating the casual market.  But that essentially just opened the door for non-gaming companies to step in and steal their market.  It's pretty obvious from the initial struggles of the 3DS and the weak sales of the Wii U that the casual market isn't interested in a dedicated videogame device now that electronic devices they already own for other purposes can play games.

So consoles and handhelds are for dedicated gamers now.  It's for the person for which videogames are more than a mindless distraction and mobile games are not enough.  That is the market that Sony and, to a lesser extent, MS have.  If Nintendo doesn't target that same audience, who do they truly have left?  Even with kids if parents buy them a phone and they still want a 3DS they're thinking "why am I buying him this when he already has a phone that can play games?"  Dedicated videogame devices are for people that know the difference between a good game and a F2P piece of **** and those people are not impressed with half-assed efforts with flashy gimmicks.

The market is splitting between dedicated videogame enthusiast and indifferent casual user looking to kill time.  Nintendo seems to be hovering in this no one's land between the two.

[Evan_B]

Really? A lot of the stuff you just cited as qualities that embody the Sony/MS audience don't really match up with what I see at all.

[lolmonade]

[size=0px]Nintendo opened Pandora's Box with the Wii and DS, essentially creating the casual market.  But that essentially just opened the door for non-gaming companies to step in and steal their market.  It's pretty obvious from the initial struggles of the 3DS and the weak sales of the Wii U that the casual market isn't interested in a dedicated videogame device now that electronic devices they already own for other purposes can play games.[/size]

Nintendo didn't create the market, those people who gravitated to Wii & DS that aren't dedicated gamers were ones who were the same people who likely didn't play anything other than snake on their phone or solitaire & Snood on their PC. 


Wii to Wii U Sales are also different IMO than when you're talking DS to 3DS.  For the Wii to Wii U, Nintendo had tapped into that market for various reasons with the Wii(scarcity, low price, word of mouth, social aspect & easy introduction into Wii Sports, simplicity in focus of system) that they were afraid to re-tread with their follow-up, or felt like the mass market would adopt the Wii U because of people's familiarity with tablets by then.


For the DS to 3DS, through most of the DS' lifespan, I think most people didn't have a smartphone competing for that space of gaming a LOT of people bought one for (Nintendogs, Brain Age). By the end of DS & start of 3DS, it was almost hard to find a non-smartphone in stores, and all of them have a robust app store that had many games similar to those that were a fraction of the cost or ad supported.  The reality of Mobile gaming is that the actual market left for the kind of games 3DS offers has likely shrunk to the same "core" gamers that mostly go to consoles.

[ThePerm]

I was playing with both an Ipad and a Vita at best buy yesterday. I was thinking their border dimensions were not that different.  I'm ok with smaller joysticks. The smaller buttons were never much of a problem on DS.  If they just take a wii U controller, then enlarge the screen by 20%, change the buttons and just sticks to the smaller ones, then they can keep the controller comfortable and have a bigger/more tablet sized screen.  Or actually they could leave the buttons the same size and shrink the joysticks. I don't know if small joysticks could have click though, you could add a function button next to the joysticks just so games could be ported over.

[rlse9]

Theres talk of a 900p support for the next console, that could be the screen on the controller.  the current one is 854x480

1080p is 1920x1080

Ipads are like 1024x768

900p is probably 1600x900 (based on photoshop's constrain proportion algorithm)

That's accurate for the older generation of iPads but all of the newer models are 2048x1536.


The gamepad could have been good.  Every time I use it I can't help but notice how incredibly low resolution it is and using for off-TV play on anything other than virtual console games feels like a waste because Wii U games look so much better on the TV than on the Gamepad.  And even in a small apartment with the Wii U centrally located, I couldn't use the Gamepad in my bedroom to play games or watch Netflix in the kitchen while making dinner.  If it had decent resolution and range, I would have been much happier with it.  There have definitely been some good uses for the Gamepad but it has never felt revolutionary or game changing.


I've been reading this thread throughout but haven't posted much because I don't have any idea what Nintendo is going to do with the NX and don't have an idea of what they should do but it's been interesting reading everyone's ideas.

[ThePerm]

I had meant to put 1st generation up there. But I also thought it was moot. I ran my computer at 1024x768 for years, and its a good resolution. Even for some 13 inch screens. It looks shitty on this monitor, but this one is like a 24 inch one or something like that. On a 9 inch or less screen 900p would actually look pretty good.

They definitely need multi touch. Not being able to pinch and zoom sucks.

[Adrock]

I thought the 900p "leak" was false. 900p is too high for a handheld Nintendo releases for $200. 540p on a less than five in screen (on both regular and XL models) is more likely with 720p being the absolute highest and that's pushing it. For comparison's sake, Vita has a five inch qHD screen. Assuming Nintendo goes with a similar size screen as DS XL and 3DS XL's 4.88 inch 240p top screen (though I'd expect the aspect ratio to be 16:9 rather than 5:3), 540p is a marked improvement.

[The Lucky Moose]

At this point I believe we're either talking a hybrid device that requires only one purchases (imagine you could plug the Vita into a TV and use it as a controller rather than having to buy a PSTV to play Vita games on a TV - that's what I think it would be like) or simply two devices that share only some games (again, much the like the PS4 and Vita). All the more esoteric guesses, especially the ones we have heard the last few days, seem absolutely crazy to me, given actual market realities and Nintendo's corporate culture.

[ThePerm]

Well If Nintendo is planning its handheld with its console. They could just be sold separately. $129 for the handheld.
$300 for the console. They put in a traditional controller + wii mote support.

The traditional controller is a Gamecube controller with joystick clicks and an extra Z button.

The Gameboy as it would be called is a single screen handheld with a fat big screen.

The console is called NES 7 or Gamecube 2 or gamecube 4. Hopefully not 3dwii

[Adrock]

Wii U Pro Controller > GameCube Controller

At this point, NX has been known as "NX" for so long Nintendo should just keep the project name. It works and it's easy to pronounce. Since the console and handheld will undoubtedly be connected, maybe NX-Home and NX-Mobile.

Also, I can't imagine Nintendo going back to a single screen handheld. After so many years with a second supplementary screen, it's hard to imagine a Nintendo handheld without it. I'm playing through Majora's Mask 3D and it's just a significant improvement with the second screen.

[Evan_B]

I have become quite fond of the Wii U Pro Controller, but the Gamecube Controller has an amazing design that is extremely comfortable despite hindering the utility of certain buttons.

In any case, I could imagine moving away from a dual screened design but only if the handheld was compatible as a controller for the home console, thus allowing backwards compatibility.

[ThePerm]

Nintendo usually has the project names for a long time, and also the project names are usually cooler names for the consoles then the real names

Ultra 64, Dolphin, Revolution, Cafe, NX

It doesn't even feel like that long ago Wii U was Cafe and all the developers were getting on board. Always amazed that they are on board and abandon the console 1 year later.

As far as the second screen goes... Why do you need 2 screens if you have just one big screen?  1 large screen could act as 2 screens if you just split the screen.

What would be kind of interesting is a 2 part handheld. 1 part are the controls and the other part is the screen. Where depending on if the game is letterbox or portrait you can connect the controller part up in different ways.