Topic: Switchmas Eve Rumors and Speculations Thread

[Ian Sane]

And Ian for some reason Nintendo decided the easiest way to make money was to play of nostalgia...this is what lead to cheap 2D sequels...and they are good games, but the are more supplemental games and should not have been the main games for release in that year.

They're perfectly acceptable games but when you're designing your console in such a way that it effectively jettisons a ridiculous amount of games that appear on every console but your's and you're talking up this controller as your big ace in the hole and the key to all this promised innovation, you can't then pretty much ignore the controller and release retro style games that could have been made 20 years ago.  I don't think it would have even mattered if the third party support was there.  Nintendo could easily get away with making good but not particularly innovative titles if they didn't set things up so that THEY ALONE have to carry the whole system.  They create more pressure on their own games to deliver and then intentionally make unambitious titles.

[NWR_insanolord]

Playing to nostalgia is one of Nintendo's strengths. It could be and has been argued that they emphasize that aspect too much. Also, I find it really funny you referred to Zombi U as "soulless" given how much it cribs from the Demon's/Dark Souls games.

[michaelbaysuperfan616]

I just don't think Nintendo's style of games lend themselves very well to a big epic blockbuster type that dominates the other two. I think they hit their peek with Game Cube, they know this, and the best they can do now is bring that level into HD and hope for the best.

I honestly don't think anyone can truly predict what Nintendo is going to do because I think even Nintendo themselves are clueless as to why one thing works one time and not the next. But to be completely honest, NX is their last chance to get back into the game proper, if they fail again their brand image will be far to tainted to ever make a real come back, they will have to resort to chasing Wii gamers forever and that business model relies too much on dumb luck.

There are rumors that Sega is about to get back into the hardware game, not on the scale of what the other three are doing but what I read of it sounds more like what Nintendo should be doing, a cheap, retro style console that relies heavily on their own catalog and caters to their core demographic.

If they want to chase the hard core mainstream crowd forget it that is a losing battle, there has always only been room for one dominant console the other two fighting it out for second place, Sony pretty much figured out back in 1995 how to be that dominant console and they made ONE misstep along the way, that that quickly rectified. Nintendo has had ONE hit based entirely on blind luck to get them through and sticking to their guns on the handheld arena.

BUT if they ignore the Call of Duty/Madden/Grand Theft Auto crowd and make a console like Wii, cheap to make and cheap to make games for, with traditional controls, a name that doesn't alienate their audience, and strictly focuses on a balance of retro and modern Nintendo only stuff they will find their audience. To compete they need to be cheap and stick to their guns, this is a strategy that works for them, trying to be on the same level as Sony does not work for them because they cannot go all in. Even with Game Cube they skimped on the hardware, it was mostly on par or better than Ps2 but DVD, no serious online component and the lunch box design all turned gamers and developers away in droves.

If they refuse to go all in, then they HAVE to dig their heels in and stand their ground, and a console that closely unites their handheld division is the best they can do then that is what they will do. What they really need though above ALL is a damn traditional controller and a name that doesn't piss people off.

[michaelbaysuperfan616]

Playing to nostalgia is one of Nintendo's strengths. It could be and has been argued that they emphasize that aspect too much. Also, I find it really funny you referred to Zombi U as "soulless" given how much it cribs from the Demon's/Dark Souls games.

I was agreeing with that aspect, Nostalgia is what they do best, it was Ian who suggested they shouldn't or something like that. As for Soulless, I hate zombie games they are stupid. I hate the whole concept of Zombies honestly.

[Triforce Hermit]

Splatoon didn't cater to nostalgia and yet it is one of the most important games Nintendo has released in years.

[Ian Sane]

Nintendo nostalgia appeals to the diehards that bought the Wii U at launch.  The general public does not want to spend any serious amount of money on a whole console that plays nostalgic Nintendo titles and nothing else.  I think the nostalgic angle would ironically work best if Nintendo was a third party developer.  On the PS4 a game like NSMB would probably be very popular.  It's a game that a lot of gamers would gladly buy if they had the hardware for it already but would not buy a console for.  If you want to make videogame consoles you need to offer people a real incentive to buy it.  "Hey here is some retro-style game that realistically we could have done on old hardware but we want you to buy a whole new console for" is a **** sales pitch.

Triforce Hermit pointed out that Splatoon was a brand new game and it has been a pretty big hit for a new IP on a console no one owns.  The Wii U is being talked about at my work and it's not NSMB or Mario Kart or anything like that that's created the buzz.  It's Xenoblade because it's big and ambitious.  That's the sort of stuff people buy consoles for, to see where videogames can go.

Nintendo "peaked" at the Cube simply because Iwata led them down that path.  They basically stuck with the same generation for 11 years and have been a generation behind ever since.  It's hard to make cutting edge and innovative games when you're not even caught up with the rest of the industry.  But I think titles like Splatoon show that Nintendo can be more than a nostalgia act if they actually TRY.  Besides they made Super Mario Galaxy last gen.  When they try to do something new and interesting with Mario it results in the cutting edge of platforming.  When they don't we get clichĂ© sidescrollers.  It's their choice to focus on such titles.  There are rumours that open-world Zelda has run into development problems.  Not surprising since Nintendo was making Cube games with waggle while every other developer was branching into the open-world genre.  Nintendo's own decisions left them behind and they now have to learn the ropes and still deliver something that meets present-day expectations.

[michaelbaysuperfan616]

Nintendo nostalgia appeals to the diehards that bought the Wii U at launch.  The general public does not want to spend any serious amount of money on a whole console that plays nostalgic Nintendo titles and nothing else.  I think the nostalgic angle would ironically work best if Nintendo was a third party developer.  On the PS4 a game like NSMB would probably be very popular.  It's a game that a lot of gamers would gladly buy if they had the hardware for it already but would not buy a console for.  If you want to make videogame consoles you need to offer people a real incentive to buy it.  "Hey here is some retro-style game that realistically we could have done on old hardware but we want you to buy a whole new console for" is a **** sales pitch.

Triforce Hermit pointed out that Splatoon was a brand new game and it has been a pretty big hit for a new IP on a console no one owns.  The Wii U is being talked about at my work and it's not NSMB or Mario Kart or anything like that that's created the buzz.  It's Xenoblade because it's big and ambitious.  That's the sort of stuff people buy consoles for, to see where videogames can go.

Nintendo "peaked" at the Cube simply because Iwata led them down that path.  They basically stuck with the same generation for 11 years and have been a generation behind ever since.  It's hard to make cutting edge and innovative games when you're not even caught up with the rest of the industry.  But I think titles like Splatoon show that Nintendo can be more than a nostalgia act if they actually TRY.  Besides they made Super Mario Galaxy last gen.  When they try to do something new and interesting with Mario it results in the cutting edge of platforming.  When they don't we get clichĂ© sidescrollers.  It's their choice to focus on such titles.  There are rumours that open-world Zelda has run into development problems.  Not surprising since Nintendo was making Cube games with waggle while every other developer was branching into the open-world genre.  Nintendo's own decisions left them behind and they now have to learn the ropes and still deliver something that meets present-day expectations.

While I agree Splatoon is new and original, it is an idea long time Nintendo fans have been asking for a long time, it's just a unique spin on the Mario Paintball game.

And nobody is saying nostalgia is ALL they do but is sure as hell is what they do best, not just now but GBA name ten titles that weren't ports, remakes, or blatant rip offs of SNES games? It can be done but you will be naming crap nobody bought.

[Ian Sane]

Nintendo nostalgia appeals to the diehards that bought the Wii U at launch.  The general public does not want to spend any serious amount of money on a whole console that plays nostalgic Nintendo titles and nothing else.  I think the nostalgic angle would ironically work best if Nintendo was a third party developer.  On the PS4 a game like NSMB would probably be very popular.  It's a game that a lot of gamers would gladly buy if they had the hardware for it already but would not buy a console for.  If you want to make videogame consoles you need to offer people a real incentive to buy it.  "Hey here is some retro-style game that realistically we could have done on old hardware but we want you to buy a whole new console for" is a **** sales pitch.

Triforce Hermit pointed out that Splatoon was a brand new game and it has been a pretty big hit for a new IP on a console no one owns.  The Wii U is being talked about at my work and it's not NSMB or Mario Kart or anything like that that's created the buzz.  It's Xenoblade because it's big and ambitious.  That's the sort of stuff people buy consoles for, to see where videogames can go.

Nintendo "peaked" at the Cube simply because Iwata led them down that path.  They basically stuck with the same generation for 11 years and have been a generation behind ever since.  It's hard to make cutting edge and innovative games when you're not even caught up with the rest of the industry.  But I think titles like Splatoon show that Nintendo can be more than a nostalgia act if they actually TRY.  Besides they made Super Mario Galaxy last gen.  When they try to do something new and interesting with Mario it results in the cutting edge of platforming.  When they don't we get clichĂ© sidescrollers.  It's their choice to focus on such titles.  There are rumours that open-world Zelda has run into development problems.  Not surprising since Nintendo was making Cube games with waggle while every other developer was branching into the open-world genre.  Nintendo's own decisions left them behind and they now have to learn the ropes and still deliver something that meets present-day expectations.

While I agree Splatoon is new and original, it is an idea long time Nintendo fans have been asking for a long time, it's just a unique spin on the Mario Paintball game.

And nobody is saying nostalgia is ALL they do but is sure as hell is what they do best, not just now but GBA name ten titles that weren't ports, remakes, or blatant rip offs of SNES games? It can be done but you will be naming crap nobody bought.

The GBA was notoriously bad for rehashed ports and probably would not have gotten away with that if it had any competition in the handheld market.  I'm pretty sure the N-Gage was the only competing handheld during the GBA's life.

I would say Nintendo does nostalgia best simply because it's what they spend a lot of time and effort doing.  No one just starts off as a nostalgia brand.  Nintendo built a legacy when those brands were all new.  They started getting a little too self-referential around the Cube era, which had disappointing sales.  Then they bounced back with the Wii which sold to a new audience and it's big killer app in Wii Sports was a completely new IP.  Then we have the Wii U which is a notorious flop.

They have this mistaken assumption that the same tired Mario stuff moves units.  Nope.  Didn't on the Gamecube, sold big on the Wii which attracted a large audience with a brand new IP unrelated to Mario, didn't on the Wii U.  Why do they think something like Mario Kart was such a massive hit on the Wii while it failed to move Cubes and now failed to move Wii U's?  It's because the nostalgia doesn't bring people to the console, it's something they get after something else inspires them to get the console.  After Wii Sports sold Wii's and created a large userbase, games like NSMB and Mario Kart Wii sold like gangbusters to that established userbase.

[Spak-Spang]

Ian Said:  "They're perfectly acceptable games but when you're designing your console in such a way that it effectively jettisons a ridiculous amount of games that appear on every console but your's and you're talking up this controller as your big ace in the hole and the key to all this promised innovation, you can't then pretty much ignore the controller and release retro style games that could have been made 20 years ago.  I don't think it would have even mattered if the third party support was there.  Nintendo could easily get away with making good but not particularly innovative titles if they didn't set things up so that THEY ALONE have to carry the whole system.  They create more pressure on their own games to deliver and then intentionally make unambitious titles."

I completely agree with this.

Triforce Hermit:  Splatoon proves that Nintendo still knows how to make great games.  They had a team explore a concept....found the simple mechanics were fun and different.  Then worked to figure out how to move those concepts into a viable game.  Their effort in development paid off, and the game is a blast.  The sequel will be even better when they add voice chat, 4 team battles and such.  Actually I love the idea of Splatoon with 4 teams battling it out.  talk about strategy and planning needed for those matches. 

At any rate, the truth is Nintendo hasn't peaked...but Nintendo did panic and started trying to just magic money as quickly as possible to prove to their shareholders Nintendo isn't irrelevant and that they management is still capable of making smart decisions for the future of the company.
 

[NWR_insanolord]

The issue always comes back to the fact that Nintendo is generally very conservative in their business practices. On one hand, that's allowed them to survive as a company for over a century, and to survive lean periods like they've faced recently. On the other, they rely too heavily on the things they already know work, and don't try to push the envelope as much as they should. I'm not suggesting they go full-Sony, all out ambition and overextension, but if they're going to get back to being a major player in this business they're going to have to be more willing to take risks.

[Luigi Dude]

Once again people seem to forget the 3DS even exist.  The 3DS alone shows Nintendo is still one of the biggest and most popular publishers in the industry.  Many of the 3DS top sellers are the newest installments of these franchises that still sell at numbers similar to what they did 20 years ago, and some like Fire Emblem are more popular then ever.  If Nintendo was selling on only nostalgia alone which some say is making them irrelevant, then their 3DS titles should be selling worse then their GBA counterparts since that was the last system before what people like Ian say Nintendo sold out to the casuals.  But the 3DS, despite having the heaviest competition Nintendo has ever had thanks to smartphones, which some people say the casuals that made the DS and Wii popular have moved to, is still selling software at number similar to the GBA and in many cases even higher then it's GBA counterparts.

The Wii U's problem wasn't because of the games they made for it not being popular anymore, it's because they released similar games on the much cheaper 3DS earlier.  Mario 3D Land and NSMB 2 are both 10 million sellers on the 3DS, which is much better then 99% games on the Xbox and Playstation will ever sell.  Except for Minecraft, every other 10 million plus seller on a non-Nintendo consoles pretty much requires a 100 million plus budget which includes development and marketing and being released on Xbox/PS and PC combined to achieve such result.  Nintendo on the other hand can achieve these sales on just one system with less then 5% of the same budget.

Yes making more games like Splatoon is useful especially so the home console has more unique software but this logic that Nintendo is now some niche company that only it's longtime fans still support is rather ridicules.  Unless you're going to argue the current over 54 million 3DS owner are all longtime hardcore Nintendo fans, in which case, over 50 million fans is far from niche.  Either way, Nintendo is still in a pretty healthy position from a software lineup.  They just need to do a better job at giving diversity between the home and handheld again so people have a bigger reason to own the more expensive home console.

[ShyGuy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-12-21/modernizing-super-mario-how-nintendo-has-reinvented-its-star

Tezuka declined to comment whether Mario will make an appearance on the smartphone screen. He also wouldn’t talk about the successor to the Wii U console, code-named NX.

“We feel quite strongly about creating things that are in sync with the times,” he said with a smile, a hand on the plush stuffed Mario doll at his side.

What does it mean? What does it mean?

[TOPHATANT123]

2003 George Harrison: "And of course Mario will never start shooting hookers"

2015 Takashi Tezuka: "We feel quite strongly about creating things that are in sync with the times, he said with a smile, a hand on the plush stuffed Mario doll at his side."

[Triforce Hermit]

Nintendo handhelds sell the majority based on Pokemon alone.

[NWR_insanolord]

Nintendo handhelds sell because the overwhelming majority of competitors they've ever seen have been massive flops, and the one that was reasonably successful had the misfortune of going against the best selling game system in the history of the industry.

[Evan_B]

This is true, but Nintendo's dominance in that area isn't going to change any time soon. The NX handheld should sell like gangbusters.

[Ian Sane]

The issue always comes back to the fact that Nintendo is generally very conservative in their business practices. On one hand, that's allowed them to survive as a company for over a century, and to survive lean periods like they've faced recently. On the other, they rely too heavily on the things they already know work, and don't try to push the envelope as much as they should. I'm not suggesting they go full-Sony, all out ambition and overextension, but if they're going to get back to being a major player in this business they're going to have to be more willing to take risks.

Nintendo is conservative in a really weird way.  Here I am asking them to just make something conventional.  You figure a conservative company would have the problem of being TOO conventional but instead Nintendo is notorious for doing things in a weirdo Nintendo way.  The Wii was actually a HUGE risk.  Forgo a traditional hardware spec upgrade in favour of a non-traditional controller and have the controller be the only unique element of the console that would differentiate it from it's predecessor?  No one ever had done something like that before and if the controller flopped the whole thing was fucked.  But it paid off in spades and then Nintendo started being very safe with their releases.

Sticking with outdated hardware is not really conservative because it's completely different than what everyone else is doing and what everyone else had done before.  But then it really is just Nintendo's refusal to move from cartridges to discs or go online being extended to hardware.  So in that sense it is conservative but it's kind of not because Nintendo themselves always updated their hardware so they weren't going with what they always did.

Nintendo seems to be conservative on stuff where all of their competitors are moving up and they're the only ones staying behind.  And then they're very progressive on routine things where no one wants them to change what isn't broke but they force some wacky Nintendo way that generally flops.  You know what word actually describes them?  CONTRARY.  Nintendo's method is to do things different than everyone else does.  If everyone else changes something, Nintendo stays put.  If everyone else is sticking with something, Nintendo comes up with their own way to do it.  It's the sort of thing that lets them come up with brilliant ideas but 99% of the time just has them going with a stupid idea because the obvious good idea is already being done by everyone else.

What they should aim to be is to be the BETTER company.  Follow conventions when it's routine stuff that customers expect to work a certain way and then compliment that with new approaches when you think of a way to do things better - not arbitrarily different but actually better.  The games is where people want Nintendo to do new creative things, not the controller or the online infrastructure or the hardware or the stuff that's generally functional and doesn't call for creativity.

[NWR_insanolord]

The Wii wasn't really a risk from a business standpoint. Creatively it was a huge risk, but the thing was cheap to build, cheap to develop for, and had a massive profit margin from day one. Worst case scenario it flops and they quickly move on from it to something else. I guarantee you they had a backup plan for that scenario that they just never needed.

[Luigi Dude]

The Wii wasn't really a risk from a business standpoint. Creatively it was a huge risk, but the thing was cheap to build, cheap to develop for, and had a massive profit margin from day one. Worst case scenario it flops and they quickly move on from it to something else. I guarantee you they had a backup plan for that scenario that they just never needed.

Yep it's the same reason the DS was considered a third pillar until its sales exploded at the end of 2005.

That is what's rather funny about this gen.  People complain Nintendo has been too conservative when from a business standpoint, they were more reckless with the 3DS and Wii U then any previous hardware.  They thought after the DS and Wii that both successors would be a sure hit and released for the first time in history two systems that were being sold for a loss at launch.  So when the 3DS sold like **** after launch, they made an emergency price cut that helped save the system, but resulted in them taking their first ever yearly loss as a result.  Because of this they've been unable to drop the Wii U's price more because such a thing would cause an even bigger loss even if hardware sales would have benefited from it.

This is why I imagine the number one goal for NX hardware is to be profitable from day one so if worst comes to worst again, they'll have room to drop the price without breaking the bank and still retain better profits.

[Ian Sane]

The Wii wasn't really a risk from a business standpoint. Creatively it was a huge risk, but the thing was cheap to build, cheap to develop for, and had a massive profit margin from day one. Worst case scenario it flops and they quickly move on from it to something else. I guarantee you they had a backup plan for that scenario that they just never needed.

How is having a console flop just something you move on from?  You have to design games for the replacement product for starters.  The replacement product for a Wii flop is an Xbox 360 equivalent and we know from Nintendo's Wii U experience that they can't just casually whip up some HD games at a moment's notice.  If the Wii flopped Nintendo would pretty much have to just go on console hiatus for a bit to get a replacement ready.  And there's also the damage to reputation a weirdo console that flops would have.  If Nintendo had released something conventional it could underperform like the Cube but likely not outright flop.

Nintendo was pretty much risking their whole reputation on a product that was way different than any game system ever made and had it flopped there would be no way for them to finish the generation in anything but last place due to the ground they would give up while they scrambled for a replacement.  It's was either going to take off or Nintendo would lose the generation almost immediately.

[nickmitch]

Yeah, a new console is always a business risk.  Even from a manufacturing standpoint, you'd have unsold inventory just lying around your warehouses and factories that have to be reworked for your backup plan.  Then you have angry retailers while unsold inventory either asking that you buy back the inventory or discounting the crap out of it. 

Having a positive contribution margin mitigates risk, sure.  But you still lose money if you don't sell enough units.

[Luigi Dude]

Yeah, a new console is always a business risk.  Even from a manufacturing standpoint, you'd have unsold inventory just lying around your warehouses and factories that have to be reworked for your backup plan.  Then you have angry retailers while unsold inventory either asking that you buy back the inventory or discounting the crap out of it. 

Having a positive contribution margin mitigates risk, sure.  But you still lose money if you don't sell enough units.

That's why the Wii was so hard to find and constantly sold out the first several months of it's life.  Nintendo played it safe expecting Gamecube level sales at launch so when the system became as popular as it did it took months to ramp higher production.

[ShyGuy]

My Current theory for the NX: September '16 release of the hand held with weird screen, scroll wheel buttons, and external sensors for... something. coming in at a mass market $199.  TV/Console add on comes early '17 with added horsepower.

[Parallax Scroll]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1166717

Nintendo slipped 5% in Tokyo after Nomura Securities said the mysterious new console NX, to be unveiled this June, will cannibalize the existing sales of 3DS and Wii U.


According to analyst Junko Yamamura, Nintendo will make NX available by 2016 year-end’s shopping season. Nomura expects Nintendo to announce the “concept” sometime between March and May, unveil the actual console in June, and launch it between October and November. “We think the NX will start to boost operating profits in 18/3, when it will have been on the market for a full year and will have a line-up of software titles, which carry high operating margins.”

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2016/01/05/nintendo-slips-nx-to-eat-into-3ds-wii-u-nomura-cuts-target/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

[Shaymin]

...no **** a new system would affect sales of the old one.

Nintendo should go private, honestly.