Topic: No Revolution loving from the analysts.

[Ceric]

I like to say that, being much like Ian it seems, bringing up points sometimes is more for the discussion then anything else.  On that note.  I was hoping someone else would have caught this but no one did.

Anyone remember the launch of the PS2?  It was a time when DVD players could be consider expensive.  In fact it is only relatively recently that you could buy a good DVD player that did Progressive scan straight for aoubt 30 bucks.  The PS2 was a "cheap" dvd player and hey it could also play games.  Well isn't that sweet.

Now does anyone here think that it's a pretty interesting coincident that Sony is releasing a new format with it's PS3 on the way.  They did it in a way for th PSX, but more so for the PS2 and the PSP.  As of now it is rumored that the PS3 will be able to do DVD's, HD-DVD, BluRay, and CD's.  Now if they have full backward support then I can guarantee it will have everyone of those but maybe HD-DVD and it might have a UMD attachment to boot.  That's not even mentioning how easy it might be to give it streaming ability.

So looking at it like that something that can play all those formats and in HD for around $600 wow thats a deal.  Considering right now it costs $1000 dollars to get a HD-DVD player.  Now you tell me that it has a large back catalog of games and new ones coming out be name brand developers. Woah...

That will get Sony market shares.  That right there.  As you can see even with the high price it has market appeal.  If you could fit TiVo in it somehow you might not even need a anything else but a TV and a receiver.  Ironically enough that will hit the non-gamer market.  That's a lot of "value" for 600 bucks.  That is until the players go down to $100 or less but by then they'll be in the lead because of there cheap movie boxes.

I can see it now, "This Blu-Ray movie has been PS3 enhanced"

[MysticGohan24]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ceric
I like to say that, being much like Ian it seems, bringing up points sometimes is more for the discussion then anything else.  On that note.  I was hoping someone else would have caught this but no one did.

Anyone remember the launch of the PS2?  It was a time when DVD players could be consider expensive.  In fact it is only relatively recently that you could buy a good DVD player that did Progressive scan straight for aoubt 30 bucks.  The PS2 was a "cheap" dvd player and hey it could also play games.  Well isn't that sweet.

Now does anyone here think that it's a pretty interesting coincident that Sony is releasing a new format with it's PS3 on the way.  They did it in a way for th PSX, but more so for the PS2 and the PSP.  As of now it is rumored that the PS3 will be able to do DVD's, HD-DVD, BluRay, and CD's.  Now if they have full backward support then I can guarantee it will have everyone of those but maybe HD-DVD and it might have a UMD attachment to boot.  That's not even mentioning how easy it might be to give it streaming ability.

So looking at it like that something that can play all those formats and in HD for around $600 wow thats a deal.  Considering right now it costs $1000 dollars to get a HD-DVD player.  Now you tell me that it has a large back catalog of games and new ones coming out be name brand developers. Woah...

That will get Sony market shares.  That right there.  As you can see even with the high price it has market appeal.  If you could fit TiVo in it somehow you might not even need a anything else but a TV and a receiver.  Ironically enough that will hit the non-gamer market.  That's a lot of "value" for 600 bucks.  That is until the players go down to $100 or less but by then they'll be in the lead because of there cheap movie boxes.

I can see it now, "This Blu-Ray movie has been PS3 enhanced"

There's a problem with that, at the time the PS2 came out, DVD players have been on the market for several years, ( 1996 me thinks )
So DVD players weren't still at $500-$800 they once were. Blu Ray DVD isn't a neccessity or a proven technology, atleast not just yet, Also you're assuming that Blu ray can also play HD-DVD's, if you're assuming that, then I seriously doubt it will be capable, unless sony likes paying royalties to it's competitors. here's how it breaks down, HD-DVD players will only play HD-DVD's and DVD's, Blu ray can only play Blu-ray DVD's and DVD's, That's the problem! it's the wars of which format is better "ala, Beta max Vs. VHS" I know Blu-ray is expensive, but I'm not sure about HD-DVD. We'll see who wins in the end, last time sony tried, they got burned.

[Ian Sane]

I don't think it's really fair to compare Blu-Ray or HD-DVD in 2006 to DVDs in 2000.  When the PS2 launched DVDs were fairly common already.  It was a new thing but everyone knew they existed and the DVD/VHS ratio in stores was pretty equal.  DVD was seen as the future by almost everyone.  There was demand for a cheap DVD player like the PS2.  I have never EVER seen a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD movie in my entire life.  They're not in stores.  The formats essentially don't exist, not yet anyway.  So the demand for a cheap HD-DVD player is much smaller.  With the PS2 Sony included a feature that they knew everyone already wanted.  With the PS3 they have to sell the idea of a new video format.  They have to create that demand so I don't think it could possibly have the same effect the PS2 DVD player did.

Plus I question these new formats period.  Most people just switched to DVD five years ago or less.  Why would the average person switch formats so soon?  VHS lasted forever.  I don't remember a time where tapes didn't exist.  Throughout my whole childhood and teen years that was the standard.  So why wouldn't DVDs last just as long?  Mainstream standards aren't like consoles where people are willing to accept a totally different format every five years.  Standards don't get replaced until they're REALLY dated.  DVD offered a big jump from VHS.  Aside from superior quality you also didn't have to rewind and you could jump to scenes and do a clean freeze frame and have extra features.  It was a big deal.  I don't think any of these new formats provide such a jump.  They're like the PS3 and Xbox 360: a visual quality jump that most people will hardly notice and not much else.

Edit: MysticGohan24 beat me to a lot of the same points while I was typing this up.

[jasonditz]

hell... the only reason a lot of people switched to DVDs from VHS was because so many stores stopped selling VHS tapes.  

[Ceric]

As I've told many people.  People love new technology.  They just hate migrating to it.  That what holds back the PC more then anything.  The x86 architecture is relatively not nice to program for with todays advancements it keeps getting extended and when Intel finally made plans to give it the boot AMD extends it again and makes it impossible for the most part.  Finish later

[nemo_83]

I guess I can't say my figures are baseless, at least the second set as I did take into consideration the DS outselling all three consoles put together.  I was just kind of saying my opinion or any other board member's opinion is as valuable as these analysts.  The analyst's numbers are no more accurate than my first set, the overall numbers in my first set like the analysts would spell an overall industry that is flowering when in reality I don't believe that to be the case in the coming years.  "The industry" as we know it can be summed up by 360 and PSP; the industry in 08 will be the one of DS and Revolution.  There is a fake industry, Sony and 360, and there is the real industry, the one where they really sell things and make profits and function as a living company.  

These analysts seem blind to the portable market which leaves the overall industry divided between five pieces of hardware in 08, this means less software to go around, smaller more concentrated console userbases, a less clear winner console sells wise, a more evenly divided console market, and ultimately gamers who own multiple units will have less money to spend on software so they will learn to do as the Nintendo fans do (since we usually own or at least play multiple consoles), people will only buy the brands they can trust, the high quality stuff like Zelda, Metroid, Resident Evil and so on.  

Nintendo is convincing me that "the industry" as we once knew it is gone, it got up and left the auditorium shortly before the industry broke out into a fist fight on stage during the debate.  With the DS Nintendo has too left the Jerry Springer show and gone out and found these lost buyers; they're coming back to the debate and they're bringing a revolution.  If anyone will be the clear winner in five years it will be Nintendo, for one of two reasons if not both; DS will outsell the PSP and all three consoles combined, and the Revolution will be the only console to experience growth while Sony and MS bleed money over an exausted market.  

[The Omen]

Quote
hell... the only reason a lot of people switched to DVDs from VHS was because so many stores stopped selling VHS tapes.

You are incorrect sir.  The reason DVDs took over is the same reason CDs took over cassettes-going from a hideous format that basically robbed recordings of all their integrity (such as album to cassette tape) to a format that kept music/films as close to the source material as possible, while being more convenient in stature and comparable in price.  Not too mention more storage, better sound, all the extras you can't get on VHS, better picture, ...it's just better.  I didn't buy a DVD player until 2001.  By that time DVDs had been out for four years, yet my local blockbuster and Best Buy had their selections split evenly between Vhs and DVD. (Obviously, 2001- 2002 marks the first huge leap in the DVD market saturation, and that's when the inferior product started to disappear.)

As far as Blu Ray, Sony had better wise up and realize if they charge anywhere over $25 a movie, the going is going to be tough, especially when you can get the same movie for $10-15 cheaper on DVD.  And knowing Sony, they will start Blu Ray discs at $40.  The PS3 is going to sell, and sell well, but it won't be just because of Blu Ray, it'll be the PS brand in addition to the new thing in technology.  But I doubt it'll turn into another PS2 performance, just because the prices are so high compared to the PS2/Dreamcast/NGC gen.

[BigJim]

Not to mention, DVDs worked fine on regular TVs. It was an easy replacement for VHS once they finally reached the same price and continued to go down.

Any HD format on an SD TV is rather wasteful.

Just for the record, the CES just started. The first HD-DVDs are coming out in March with players beginning at $400-$500 USD.

The first Blu-Ray players will ship in April, for $1000. The PS3 at $400-ish creates an attractive price parity, but the masses don't necessarily care when they don't have the TVs to see it. (Unless they're technically ignorant and think they're watching HD when they're not. Believe it or not, this happens frequently.)

So I don't think BRD will quite have the impact as DVD had with PS2. At least not for the first few years.  I mean, the 360 can output games in HD. Are 360 owners scrambling for new TVs?

[MysticGohan24]

Quote
Originally posted by: The Omen

Quote
hell... the only reason a lot of people switched to DVDs from VHS was because so many stores stopped selling VHS tapes.

You are incorrect sir.  The reason DVDs took over is the same reason CDs took over cassettes-going from a hideous format that basically robbed recordings of all their integrity (such as album to cassette tape) to a format that kept music/films as close to the source material as possible, while being more convenient in stature and comparable in price.  Not too mention more storage, better sound, all the extras you can't get on VHS, better picture, ...it's just better.  I didn't buy a DVD player until 2001.  By that time DVDs had been out for four years, yet my local blockbuster and Best Buy had their selections split evenly between Vhs and DVD. (Obviously, 2001- 2002 marks the first huge leap in the DVD market saturation, and that's when the inferior product started to disappear.)

As far as Blu Ray, Sony had better wise up and realize if they charge anywhere over $25 a movie, the going is going to be tough, especially when you can get the same movie for $10-15 cheaper on DVD.  And knowing Sony, they will start Blu Ray discs at $40.  The PS3 is going to sell, and sell well, but it won't be just because of Blu Ray, it'll be the PS brand in addition to the new thing in technology.  But I doubt it'll turn into another PS2 performance, just because the prices are so high compared to the PS2/Dreamcast/NGC gen.

Agreed! But I see sony falling short on their projected sales for the success of the PS3, they are far too relying on the samething that really sold the PS2 to repeat itself with the PS3, and as I recall the PS2 had more DVD's being sold than there was software for quite sometime. Now, I seriously doubt this will be the case with the PS3, due to costs, of both the console and the Blu-Ray DVD's and software, since there will be a significant increase of cost. I doubt anyone who just recently got or has had a DVD player will wanna switch at a drop at the hat, seeing how'll we're looking at least a $1000 for a stand alone Blu-Ray DVD player, I do not know what the pricing may be for the HD-DVD player. But my Estimate would be more or less the same.

I just don't understand why not use the exisiting format "DVD" and make a High Def version, I know it's possible, seeing the space on a DVD can be tinkered with great results, how hard would it be to make new player's in HD? Seriously, the new formatts are unnesessary. Hell, DVD's are already in 480p, which is still pretty impressive, all there's left is 720p and 1080i, 1080p on the other hand is few and far inbetween, I give it a few more years before it starts being more common in HD TV set's.

MS is making a mistake with the HD-DVD addon, they haven't announced a price or a release date, and it's only to play Movies in HD. it's like MS has admitted that they should of gone with another formatt but they wanted to rush to get out first. It's like they wanted to make the mistakes Sega did, hmmmm... meh.

This gives Nintendo an advantage, they will have DVD built in, so no problem they can compete with the other's in having a formatt to watch DVD's, while the other's struggle to sell their features, let alone prove their price range is more than worth it, since 360's and from what dev's are hinting about PS3, nothing's gonna give the "WOW" factor this gen has, GFX wise. I turn to Rev to reinvent the wheel and make gaming fun once more, while other's just sit there and play pee knuckle

And Ian mentioned me I feel so honored heh  

[jasonditz]

Quote
Originally posted by: The Omen

Quote
hell... the only reason a lot of people switched to DVDs from VHS was because so many stores stopped selling VHS tapes.

You are incorrect sir.  The reason DVDs took over is the same reason CDs took over cassettes-going from a hideous format that basically robbed recordings of all their integrity (such as album to cassette tape) to a format that kept music/films as close to the source material as possible, while being more convenient in stature and comparable in price.  Not too mention more storage, better sound, all the extras you can't get on VHS, better picture, ...it's just better.  I didn't buy a DVD player until 2001.  By that time DVDs had been out for four years, yet my local blockbuster and Best Buy had their selections split evenly between Vhs and DVD. (Obviously, 2001- 2002 marks the first huge leap in the DVD market saturation, and that's when the inferior product started to disappear.)

As far as Blu Ray, Sony had better wise up and realize if they charge anywhere over $25 a movie, the going is going to be tough, especially when you can get the same movie for $10-15 cheaper on DVD.  And knowing Sony, they will start Blu Ray discs at $40.  The PS3 is going to sell, and sell well, but it won't be just because of Blu Ray, it'll be the PS brand in addition to the new thing in technology.  But I doubt it'll turn into another PS2 performance, just because the prices are so high compared to the PS2/Dreamcast/NGC gen.

And I knew a LOT of people in 2001-2002 who weren't even thinking of getting a DVD player. It wasn't until late 2002 to early 2003 when Best Buy et al stopped stocking VHS altogether that they began to consider it. It wasn't until mid-2004 when most of the rental places stopped carrying VHS for their new releases that they really started pricing DVD players.

In fact, I have a friend who was in town for a visit around Thanksgiving... and he'd just bought his first DVD player that week.

[Ceric]

Ok... Just for the record HD-DVD is the extension of the DVD standard.  If you don't mind not having any extras you can get a Superbit DVD, the cases tend to have this Stainless still print on them, where they take that extra space and use it to better encode the movie with higher quality everything.  I just like to mention at this point that picture wise most DVD's are already better than what you see at the movies themselves, no real artifacts.  Yeah, like HDTV broadcast, IPv6, and DVD data disc for computers it will take a while to catch on.  Though I'll probably get one with my next TV in like 6 years.  Oh wait Holographic media is suppose to final come by then.  Then it will terabytes.  The actual raw film itself.

[Artimus]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ceric
Ok... Just for the record HD-DVD is the extension of the DVD standard.  If you don't mind not having any extras you can get a Superbit DVD, the cases tend to have this Stainless still print on them, where they take that extra space and use it to better encode the movie with higher quality everything.  I just like to mention at this point that picture wise most DVD's are already better than what you see at the movies themselves, no real artifacts.  Yeah, like HDTV broadcast, IPv6, and DVD data disc for computers it will take a while to catch on.  Though I'll probably get one with my next TV in like 6 years.  Oh wait Holographic media is suppose to final come by then.  Then it will terabytes.  The actual raw film itself.

It's a very very rough extension, mainly in name only. You can buy all the Superbits you want but they're not High Definition. If you don't get HD cable then it's really pointless owning an HDTV (or if you have an XBOX) since DVDs look just as good on a really nice SDTV. That being said, a really good DVD transfer looks fantastic, and more isn't that necessary.

As for being better than the movies, that all depends. A LOT of DVDs have artifacts, compression, ghosting, etc. No DVD transfer is flawless, and few are truly fantastic. A ton of DVD transfers are muddy, cropped, edge enhanced or poor in other aspects. Film prints are always scratchy with hairs and blips, but the actual image is a hundred times that of a DVD. The detail and clarity (when projected right) outdoes any digital medium. The best digital camera (I'm talking professional ala Collateral) still can't capture quite the detail film can. It's also questionable whether that picture perfect clarity is really as good as the pure asthetic of a mechanical projector.

I agree about the next medium, though. I think HDDVD/Blu-Ray will never be what DVD is. It won't be until we're talking 99% complete transfers (and probably 75% digitally shot films) that another format can come. For the average person there's little reason to rush out and get better than DVD, their eye doesn't notice a difference.

[Ceric]

*shrug*  Film is an analog medium and inheritantly going to have a better resolution than a digital medium.  It's just how things are.  You'll get no argument from me.  But as general joe the consumer I'll notice that big old black spot of an artifact on a movie screen.  I guess in the end it comes down to this.  If you can see a movie on a good quality projector with a good quality copy then movies can easily win.  If not DVD's tend to be a little more consistant.

[mynameis]

This is off the topic but I have something to say about all the fuss over the rumor that it'll be as powerful as a gamecube times 3. Well with the graphics in RE 4 i'll surely take a system that can produce something 3 times as powerful. I just saw a pic of a PS3 demo FF and the character looked no better than Leon or Ada(1 or 2 dd's?). So there. The controller and the preherials will rock anyways.     i'm NoT with Stupid (Can't SPel)  

[ThePerm]

actually the resolution of film does have its limits...its something like 1000 grains per milimeter or something

[Renny]

An article. Search your preferred web crawler for more results.

[Requiem]

Geezz.....I can't wait to veiw Holographic Disk technology. Watching DiscoveryHD already makes me drool.

I don't know about you, but clarity in a movie really breathes life into it. It makes it feel.....captivating (for lack of a better word). I was looking forward to HD-DVD or BluRay, but now.....HoloD sounds far better. Raw film with no compression.....drools.... It's like your favorite album loss-less with the channels seperated and the bass harmonized. If that can make you feel as if you were at the studio listening to them in person, imagine the video side of media. I want to see blades of grass as far as the eye can see.

P.S. Do you think a Holographic TV will come out to excentuate the media?

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

Well I can't see TOO far cuz I use glasses.

I find that high/consistent framerates make visual experiences more stomach-churning, so i prioritize that over increased resolution.

[BiLdItUp1]

Any sort of holographic disc is both years away and pointless right now, because it hasn't mustered any support - IE it has no content, and without compelling content, the format has no reason to exist. And god, how many times have we heard the old holographic disc story? I remember the first announcements from the now defunct Constellation3D almost five years ago, and still we have nothing. It's a pipe dream fellas...for now.

Heck, even HD-DVD and Blu-Ray can be disposed of. Not enough people have HDTVs, and not many are content to watching on a usually-small computer monitor. DVD is gonna remain the standard until NTSC has been phased out for good, and that is still a long ways off. I'm sort of pissed off, too - DVD+/-R DL media will NEVER get cheap now, and damn it, I'm sick of SL already.

[King of Twitch]

#### Blu-Ray. I don't need more bonus extras telling me how visionary a director has or how early the cast had to get up every day to earn their multi-million dollar paychecks. The picture quality better be out of this world.


Oh yea, #### analysts too. Get a real job.  

[Artimus]

Quote
Originally posted by: MJRx9000
#### Blu-Ray. I don't need more bonus extras telling me how visionary a director has or how early the cast had to get up every day to earn their multi-million dollar paychecks. The picture quality better be out of this world.

No, but people who actually love movies would like to see every film have competant and detailed extras. Some people appreciate things such as film for far more than jealousy over a celebrity's salary.

Extras, however, have nothing to do with Blu-ray. With 3 and 4 disc sets there is no need for a new format. It's all about HD. As far as the picture qualitygoes , just rent T2: Ultimate Edition, pop the second disc into your PC and watch the HD Windows Media Player version to find out if its worth it.  

[Requiem]

Didn't Maxwell make a working unit and disk for Holographic technology? Didn't they say it would out Fall of this year?

I hope it garners support, because even on regular tv's HoloD would look so much better than DVD. It's like I said before, even on a normal stereo, loseless music is far better than mp3. I'm no techie, but I'm sure it works the same way with movies.

And as big and cheap as monitors are getting these days, I wouldn't mind watching a movie in front of my computer or laptop....

[Stimutacs Addict]

i overheard some next-gen discussion last night that boiled down to everyone in the conversation wanted a Revolution and a used/lower priced Xbox360. I'm starting to believe that Nintendo is going to pull this off.

[Strell]

Man.  I remember when people watched movies to, you know, enjoy the movie.  Not comment on how clear it was and whether or not artifacts are around.

[Requiem]

Good point. Then again have you dug up an old VHS and tried to watch it? It starts to give you a headache about half way though. Honestly, clarity is more important than you think. People like to see individual blades of grass or the landscape scenery in movies like LOTR. It is more inviting to watch when you see bright greens, vivid red, and dark black. Something about it is like a breath of fresh air. Same thing goes with audio.