Gaming Forums => Nintendo Gaming => Topic started by: Kytim89 on June 24, 2012, 01:45:49 AM
Title: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Kytim89 on June 24, 2012, 01:45:49 AM
There is ever increasing signs that the Japanese gaming industry is declining. With franchises running stale and top tier developers becoming increasingly reliant on western developers to make their IPs remain relevant on the market. Here are a few questions concerning this dilema:
Why is it declining?
Can it be reversed?
Most importantly: What is Nintendo's place now and forever more in thier gaming market?
As the Japanese gaming industry continues to decline it will become increasingly reliant on Nintendo to help keep it afloat. Of course Nintedno is already in this position today, but depending on the severity there will be an unprecendented amount cooperation between Nintendo and other Japanese developers just so that they can stay economical (or atleast in their own market). What I am trying to say is since Nintendo is on the verge of entering the HD arena with the Wii U more Japanese companies will put their games on that system.
What does this mean for Sony? Sony is the second juggernaut of Japan's gaming industry, but with their recent financial woes even their own sustainability in the gaming is in jeaprody. Is it too far fetched to assume that even Sony could become reliant on Nintendo for survival as a second party developer (do not condemn me for this)?
If Nintendo had not experienced the financial losses that they have incured in the last year or so then I could easily see Nintendo buying out SEGA, then bringing in more second party developers to help make their own IPs both new and old. We already see this currently with Namco Bandai helping with the next Smash Brothers game.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Evan_B on June 24, 2012, 03:17:21 AM
While it doesn't surprise me that you made this topic, I agree in some aspects. There's definitely some weird stuff going on. However, I don't think there's as great a decline as you mentioned- but I do think that Japanese developers have had a big struggle with the leap to HD graphics. I think that's kind of because Sony and Microsoft pushed the HD era a little early on them. I mean, with games like Xenoblade and the Last Story, there are japanese developers who are still able to take dated hardware and do great things with it, while most RPGs from the HD era have seemed like small corridors and limited environs- pretty, but still. I think if another company attempts a big graphical leap or something to that effect, a lot of these struggling developers are going to have to fall back on Nintendo so that they can utilize tech that is familiar to them.
I don't know, though. That's one facet of it. There's really been a dip in the quality of recent games, and I think it's because there's been such a focus on westernizing these franchises and taking away what kind of made them stand out in the first place...
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: ShyGuy on June 24, 2012, 03:28:11 AM
Is the size of a Japanese developer team typically smaller than a western dev team?
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: broodwars on June 24, 2012, 04:12:01 AM
I think the main reasons why the Japanese Game Industry has declined to near-irrelevance are as follows:
Japanese pop culture is severely centered around milking one particular trend that manages to become widely popular, and their entertainment industry is extremely slow to adapt to change. As the rest of the world began to adopt new gaming conventions and styles of play near the end of the last console generation, the Japanese have gone gradually insular focusing on the core otaku still buying games with the styles and mechanics of the games they made in the PS1 and PS2 eras. I think a lot of Japanese companies are still reeling right now from the realization that what made them successful in previous console generations is no longer relevant (even increasingly within Japan as the otaku market continues to shrink), and they don't know how to adapt to new paradigms. They also have a tendency these days to make games that appeal to specific Japanese fetishes that aren't socially acceptable outside Japan, such as their current obsession with the dying moe fad.
Meanwhile, Western companies have continually innovated and incorporated new ideas and new ways at looking at games within their products. Unfortunately, Japanese companies don't seem to understand the reasons why certain features that have become prominent in Western games achieved their popularity. Seeing a trend they could potentially capitalize on, we've seen Japanese companies try to make "western-friendly games", and they've largely failed due to that lack of understanding.
Take for instance Dragon's Dogma, a recent JRPG from Capcom. In that game's case, Capcom looked at Western Role-Playing Games, and apparently determined that the key to their success was large open worlds with a heavy emphasis on travel and exploration. The problem is that they didn't understand that the key to the Open World design isn't just that the world is big and that there's places to go, but that exploring the world and going to these places is meaningful. You don't climb that mountain just for the sake of climbing that mountain. You climb it because you believe there could be something worth finding atop that mountain. And while journeying through these open worlds can be enjoyable, our time is valuable so we need some sort of easy fast travel system to cut down on tedium. Capcom didn't understand this, so Dragon's Dogma has a huge, largely empty world with an extremely restrictive fast travel system. They got the surface level concept right, but didn't understand the deeper philosophies that govern it so they botched the execution.
And there are any number of games where I've seen similar problems. I also saw something similar with Gravity Rush on the Vita, which also has a large open world to explore not unlike a Western game like Crackdown, but the world is largely empty with extremely basic exploration. Final Fantasy XIII-2 on the PS3 seems to want to steal the dialogue wheel from any given Bioware RPG, but the player has no meaningful agency within these dialogue wheels and they're too basic so it's pretty meaningless. For Japanese companies to find relevance in modern gaming, they need to stop designing around what was popular 10-15 years ago and adapt to how game design has evolved. That means understanding trends beyond surface level analysis.
And that doesn't mean that the Japanese have to essentially make Western games. But they do need to understand Western gaming so they can then make the necessary adjustments to make their games relevant while also maintaining their own unique flavor. Xenoblade shows how this possible, as does the Last Story from all accounts. Those games have adopted very Western design sensibilities, and yet I think Xenoblade at least has a very distinctive Japanese feel to it in terms of the story and atmosphere. I think Platinum's Vanquish is a good example of this as well, as it has a very Japanese kinetic feeling to it totally unique from your standard Western 3rd person shooter. Sega combined Japanese storytelling with turn-based strategy and 3rd person shooting to create something totally unique and revolutionary in Valkyria Chronicles (and then they turned around and clung to Japanese High School cliches for the first PSP sequel, which was nowhere near as well-received outside Japan).
Also, in the case of Japanese Role-Playing Games specifically, so many companies seem stuck in PlayStation 1 era scenario and character design sensibilities that have become tiring cliches at this point, cliches that desperately need to be retired by now.
I've also read that (due to how their development teams are structured) apparently the Japanese game production process is extremely inefficient compared to typical Western developers, leading to fewer quality products over a longer period of time. If I remember correctly it has something to do with hierarchy in management.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Kairon on June 24, 2012, 07:00:31 AM
I'm no expert on this topic but I have some opinions on it that I think are moderately informed:
1. Japanese companies are feeling the hurt from increased budgets for HD games, and possible low sales numbers for said games. This is not unlike the dilemma many/all mid-tier independent developers face today even if they're not Japanese: expectations for HD gaming implies larger budgets, but fewer games are selling enough to justify those large budgets.
2. The Japanese console market never consolidated under one console dramatically. Whereas before the PS2 sold more than 20 million units in the market, now the Wii is at like 14 million units and the PS3 7 million units (not sure of my numbers right now). This is a complicating factor in getting their games out to a wide domestic base. In contrast, the DS seems like the true successor to the PS2 in that market with 20+ million units moved there, and with many JRPGs of this generation actually going to handhelds instead of consoles.
3. There could be a lack of new "blood" in the Japanese gaming industry. This has been remarked on several times in the past years by several prominent developers. The Japanese industry may be "gentrifying", and as a result, there's less new ideas and innovations being pushed into it by newcomers, which naturally will affect the games that are created and the consumers being drawn to start or continue playing videogames.
Can it be reversed? I don't know. I want to think so. Nintendo thinks it can, and has been talking about the declining Japanese industry and attempting to rejuvenate it at least as far back as the Revolution. There's a reason Iwata's talked so much about "audience expansion" in the past couple years, I think he's been looking at Japan and fearing the gaming malaise over there will start manifesting in the US and Europe.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Chozo Ghost on June 24, 2012, 09:56:31 AM
One reason why the Japanese gaming industry may be declining is because Japan's overall population is in decline. The birth rate over there is lower than what is necessary to keep the population steady, so it is in decline just like in most industrialized countries. But unlike most industrialized countries Japan isn't making up for that deficit via immigration.
The answer is Japan either needs to produce more children or accept more immigrants. Otherwise the population will continue to decline, and the gaming industry over there will decline along with it.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: S-U-P-E-R on June 24, 2012, 10:54:27 AM
I agree a with a lot of what the above posters said, but I think a lot of the problems mentioned are missing the big picture.
The method and culture of large Japanese companies are not condusive to good nor creative game design.
In the 80s and 90s, video games were a much newer idea, and the kind of people that worked on those games were closer to crazy hippies than overworked salarymen. The games were pretty amazing. Now, the companies are much bigger and don't want to take any risks, what with the perpetually bad economy. So they're just putting out safe boring garbage, and now even that isn't working out and they don't know what to do. The way a lot of them are being managed now is just... bleough. Check out all the people at Capcom who have left or had a coronary or whatever. Look at the awful stuff that Square-Enix has put out over the last couple years. Look at whatever company and look at them lose money on every single decision they make!
I keep thinking of the good, popular games that Capcom has put out over the last few years, and the people inside the company had to fight nonstop against management to even be allowed to work on them. Lost Planet, SF4, maybe some others. Megaman Legends 3, lol.
I'd say look to the smaller developers but I'm pretty sure they're having a hard time even existing right now. :[
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: AnGer on June 24, 2012, 11:01:09 AM
As far as the idea of "westernized" games made by japanese companies goes, I am watching that trend with some sort of disdain.
On the one hand, there are games with that concept in mind that just work. Take Demon's/Dark Souls, Dragon's Dogma or Xenoblade. Then on the other side there's Resident Evil – a game where the idea changed from a survival horror game to some sort of mixture between Uncharted and Call of Duty: Lots of cutscenes, very linear, many foes that you have to take down and of course the obnoxious QTE.
I agree on the part where they say there's a need for variation, a need for more dynamic gameplay. But then again, I love japanese games for what they are, how they are played and yes, even for the art design. The day that japanese gaming companies will only make games that try to appeal to a western audience or stop making games altogether will be the day I will consider gaming to be dead.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: S-U-P-E-R on June 24, 2012, 11:21:02 AM
Also, please let the RPG genre die, it is bad
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: ThePerm on June 24, 2012, 12:10:04 PM
more specifically let the random battle turned based emo hair rpg genre die
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: shingi_70 on June 24, 2012, 12:16:17 PM
Isnt it already dead. I granted havent played that many rpgs this gen but the ones I have had a lack of emo. Well expect anything witb that jobber hope.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: SixthAngel on June 24, 2012, 01:11:50 PM
Once again everyone is extremely focused on console gaming.
Japanese consumers like handhelds and the developers followed. The biggest Japanese games like Dragon Quest were all there and they sold very well. The DS has been selling tons of games in Japan and from my understanding sold many more kinds of "non-games" than the U.S. that broadened the market. The DS was the best selling gaming device ever in Japan and the 3DS is currently selling much more than it did at this point in time. Western "hardcore" gamers and game-makers are myopically focuses on consoles although they finally noticed mobile gaming with the iphone.
"As the Japanese gaming industry continues to decline it will become increasingly reliant on Nintendo to help keep it afloat."
Last gen the entire gaming industry relied on Nintendo to keep it afloat since most western studios were leaking money like a sieve while Nintendo's profits and market share made it look good as a whole.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Evan_B on June 24, 2012, 01:26:30 PM
See, Japanese gaming shouldn't have to Westernize because its fundamentals are what make it such an enjoyable genre. The unique storytelling, visuals and gameplay are core to what makes them good, and sometime they don't even HAVE good storytelling or visuals. The main idea is that gameplay should not be sacrificed for Western state-of-mind. Some people LIKE Japanese games for what they are- and maybe some of these companies need to realize that they have to downscale in order to continue to bring the sense of individuality and innovation that their past titles possessed.
A lot of people still think that a Link to the Past or Final Fantasy VI are the best games of their kind. These games were not groundbreaking in graphical style, they were created by teams who understood their hardware and exploited it to the max, and created great things. I think it's now a matter of the Japanese game market not being accustomed to the hardware that they're creating games on, because graphics are something that's improved pretty exponentially recently (though in many ways, it's not that great/it will plateau eventually).
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: shingi_70 on June 24, 2012, 01:44:44 PM
Once again everyone is extremely focused on console gaming.
Japanese consumers like handhelds and the developers followed. The biggest Japanese games like Dragon Quest were all there and they sold very well. The DS has been selling tons of games in Japan and from my understanding sold many more kinds of "non-games" than the U.S. that broadened the market. The DS was the best selling gaming device ever in Japan and the 3DS is currently selling much more than it did at this point in time. Western "hardcore" gamers and game-makers are myopically focuses on consoles although they finally noticed mobile gaming with the iphone.
"As the Japanese gaming industry continues to decline it will become increasingly reliant on Nintendo to help keep it afloat."
Last gen the entire gaming industry relied on Nintendo to keep it afloat since most western studios were leaking money like a sieve while Nintendo's profits and market share made it look good as a whole.
Huh last gen nearly killed nintendo and mlst western devs were still PC focused. If your talking current gen I would still disagree sonce most of million dollar making third party gsmes have been on xbox/PS3 and Wii sales fell off a cliff.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: ShyGuy on June 24, 2012, 02:29:06 PM
So what do Japanese people do to occupy their time nowadays? iPhones and Reality TV?
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: S-U-P-E-R on June 24, 2012, 05:49:23 PM
Monster Hunter and working themselves to death
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: nickmitch on June 24, 2012, 05:52:46 PM
Huh last gen nearly killed nintendo and mlst western devs were still PC focused. If your talking current gen I would still disagree sonce most of million dollar making third party games have been on xbox/PS3 and Wii sales fell off a cliff.
I was using last gen because I focused on the DS for most of what I talked about and Wii U is almost out.
Nintendo did hold up the entire gaming industry with the Wii. They declined recently but their presence and games on both the DS and the Wii were basically the only reason we saw actual growth in the video game market.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: S-U-P-E-R on June 24, 2012, 08:39:24 PM
Paperwork and bad videogames!
As I understand it, project ideas in Japanese companies usually either come from the top, or have to be approved by every level up to the top in an excrutiating process that often leads to rejection. Certain game companies should have a closer look at this process.
Or, more simply, let the designers make what they want to make.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: shingi_70 on June 24, 2012, 10:21:43 PM
Huh last gen nearly killed nintendo and mlst western devs were still PC focused. If your talking current gen I would still disagree sonce most of million dollar making third party games have been on xbox/PS3 and Wii sales fell off a cliff.
I was using last gen because I focused on the DS for most of what I talked about and Wii U is almost out.
Nintendo did hold up the entire gaming industry with the Wii. They declined recently but their presence and games on both the DS and the Wii were basically the only reason we saw actual growth in the video game market.
I agree with you its just last gen is sill PXcube on the console side.
There is a hige difference in growth sustainability though. Going by last gen to this ge ln nintendo didnt hold it up but grew rthr market. The actually market would have probably staed the same as last gen with growth around 08 whe microspft would have started the whole "lol games" thing.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: SixthAngel on June 24, 2012, 11:23:35 PM
There is a hige difference in growth sustainability though. Going by last gen to this ge ln nintendo didnt hold it up but grew rthr market. The actually market would have probably staed the same as last gen with growth around 08 whe microspft would have started the whole "lol games" thing.
We can't say for sure whether that is true but regardless no growth in an industry with absolutely skyrocketing costs is actually a huge decline. One of the reasons a lot of Japanese games are on handhelds instead of consoles or are in trouble (declining) in the console space isn't because of declining sales, but increasing cost.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Mannypon on June 24, 2012, 11:44:06 PM
Take for instance Dragon's Dogma, a recent JRPG from Capcom. In that game's case, Capcom looked at Western Role-Playing Games, and apparently determined that the key to their success was large open worlds with a heavy emphasis on travel and exploration. The problem is that they didn't understand that the key to the Open World design isn't just that the world is big and that there's places to go, but that exploring the world and going to these places is meaningful. You don't climb that mountain just for the sake of climbing that mountain. You climb it because you believe there could be something worth finding atop that mountain. And while journeying through these open worlds can be enjoyable, our time is valuable so we need some sort of easy fast travel system to cut down on tedium. Capcom didn't understand this, so Dragon's Dogma has a huge, largely empty world with an extremely restrictive fast travel system. They got the surface level concept right, but didn't understand the deeper philosophies that govern it so they botched the execution.
I'll have to disagree with this statement here, I believe the choices made for Dragon's Dogma were deliberate. I think they were made as to give traversing long distances of land a sense of danger forcing you to come prepared and seek shelter, particularly at night. I liked the approach as I thought it was different and it made me feel as if I was really travelling long distances. The problem I believe the game had was that eventually you grew to become too strong and then you lost that sense of danger as there was very little left that could be taken as a threat. I think they were trying to turn your focus towards not so much the end result of your quests but more so the journey towards it. The introduction of fast travel in large rpgs is great (as I've used it plenty of times in Skyrim but I try to keep it to a minimum) but eventually it resorts to a complete fetch quest with very little in between. You hit a point where you receive a quest, look at your map, teleport to the nearest location, finish the quest, then teleport back for your reward. You never get the feeling as if your working towards something or your struggling to accomplish your goals. A sh*tty example would be if in Lord of the Rings, the characters used a teleport stone right to their destination, destroyed the ring then teleported back home. They, and you the viewer, missed out on all that could've taken place in between, the journey so to speak. Anyway, enough of my rant, this is best left for another thread lol.
Also, am I the only one here he still enjoys a good old fashioned JRPG with turn based battles? lol I feel as if I'm in such a minority now. I understand everyone's desire for all the emo characters to end as they get old real fast but turn based fighting? That's a particular gameplay style that some people still enjoy. Its like wishing for arcade racers to be put to death because you enjoy strictly sims. There is a particular charm to the grind of turn based fighting. All that really needs to be controlled is their frequency as I know too many in any given moment can really test your patience.
Anyways, again, let me try and contribute to the actual topic on hand. I think a few of you have already pointed out a few of the things I believe are causing the downfall of the Japanese gaming industry. I'll like to make a quick mention though that I don't think the Japanese game industry is on a downfall though but more so a transition to a completely different market compared to the west, one geared towards lower budget games on handhelds. The shift to handheld gaming is the complete opposite to the west's shift towards uber HD triple budget games. Japanese homes with only one TV and their typical small living areas have resulted in the handheld approach which in turn, contributed to the smaller development budgets. I look at the western gaming industry as big Hollywood where big budget releases are what bring the money in, whereas Japan is trying to be your straight to DVD market where you could find some equally good stories and experiences, albet quirky at times, just at a much lower budget with far less special affects.
I think the WiiU could bring about a resurgence of the console scene in Japan because it takes the portable approach to the home/console scene. You no longer have to rely on having access to the TV to play your games so before when kids had no other choice but to play their handhelds, now they can play their console on a semi handheld controller.
EDIT: Great topic and introductory post BTW Kytim89.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Kytim89 on June 25, 2012, 12:17:34 AM
My whole thesis of this topic centered around the idea of Nintendo essentially embodying the Japanese game industry. They already do this in a way right now, but it will be mostly for the survival of third party developers. For example, a Great White Shark has these little fish on it called "Remoras." What they do is help keep the shark clean, and as a reward for it services it gets to eat part of the Shark's kill. I see Japanese developers like Konami, Capcom, SEGA, Tecmo Koie, Square-Enix, and many others, as being remoras to Nintendo's Great White Shark.
What about Sony? What are the long term trends does the forum see for Sony? In my worst case scenario Sony files for chapter 11 and leaves the home console market. They can not continue to hemorrhage money the way theyr are currently doing. The global depression will weed them out from the industry.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Mannypon on June 25, 2012, 12:40:57 AM
If that were to happen to Sony, I can only imagine the bidding wars that would erupt for some of their 2nd party developers (2nd parties are owned by their respective companies right?) EA, Microsoft, and a few other large publishers will be all over them. Either that or they will simply go third party where I would imagine they could make more money pumping out multi-plat releases.
If Sony were wise, I think they should just follow Nintendo's approach and not go bleeding edge with their technology for the PS4. They need to be moderate and fall within range of the WiiU. That'll somewhat create a standard for the next gen and leave MS out on an island if they happen to go balls to the walls, money don't matter, let it bleed for a couple of years approach to their xbox720. They'll then become the ps3 of the nextgen. all power and very little to show for it. Also, Sony needs to just back out of the handhelf market as that is doing nothing for them. Even MS with their endless supply of cash hasn't even tried to take Nintendo on there. That's the only market where top end specs truly don't amount to top sales.
One thing is for sure though, Sony can't keep participating in this dick measuring contest they started with MS. They don't have the money to burn like MS does.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Chozo Ghost on June 25, 2012, 12:46:56 AM
In my worst case scenario Sony files for chapter 11 and leaves the home console market.
In my opinion if that were to happen it would be a best case scenario. Sony should go back to making TVs and Walkmans. They have no business making video game consoles.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: broodwars on June 25, 2012, 02:26:11 AM
If Sony were wise, I think they should just follow Nintendo's approach and not go bleeding edge with their technology for the PS4. They need to be moderate and fall within range of the WiiU.
Considering right now the best case scenario for the Wii U (given what little we know of its specs since Nintendo has not released any specifics) is that it's marginally more powerful than the PS3 and 360, I'd say that it's Nintendo who went moderate and fell within range of the PS3.
As for Sony's next console, I think they and Microsoft are constrained by the need to try to keep up with where PC specs are headed. Certain key developers like Epic, LucasArts, Ubisoft, and Square-Enix are starting to openly show support for tech only high-end PCs right now could handle, and that's support that neither company can afford to lose.
And for all the digs people have made at Sony for the way they stumbled into this console generation (and various mistakes since), they've done just about everything folks here wish Nintendo did: they've established a strong home for 3rd parties, they've published an impressively-strong 1st party lineup (with a great deal of variety) with a fair percentage made up of IP new to this generation, and (although it took them a long time to get to that point) they have an online service that's competitive with Microsoft's and totally free to use. They've even managed to implement motion control into many of their top-tier 1st and 2nd party games in a way that gives players options (rather than forcing motion control where it's not needed or wanted, as Nintendo has). You may not like Sony, but just as a gamer it's hard to argue that what they've done with the PS3 has been bad for me or gaming as a whole.
I think if Sony were to step out of the games business, it would be a sad day for the industry and possibly a harbinger of darker days to come. Like them or not, they offer experiences that the other two console manufacturers are lacking (you'd never see Nintendo put out a game like The Last of Us or Beyond: Two Souls, and you'd never see Microsoft put out a game like Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time or LittleBigPlanet, for example), and in so doing are part of a very delicate balance keeping the console market together. They are the middle ground providing competition for 2 extremely different companies who aren't typically in direct competition. Microsoft doesn't really make games that hit the same target audience that Nintendo's do, and vice-versa. But Sony releases games that hit the target audience of both platform holders, and so there is competition to spark innovation. Their existence forces the other 2 platform holders to be strive to be better where they might otherwise remain stagnant.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Louieturkey on June 25, 2012, 03:07:13 AM
I do believe the worst case scenario is 20% better than PS360. We learned that back in November before newer dev kits were released which we have heard rumored to be even more powerful. So I guess depending on your definition of "marginally," you could be right. I say that is a lot more significant than marginally more powerful, especially the rumored increase in ram.
I do agree with you that Sony puts out the games that I want which Nintendo does not make. Sony's 1st/2nd party stuff is amazing and innovative and pushes the boundaries that everyone else sits behind. I also believe though that if they had not fallen so far from grace compared to the PS2 that some of the games they have made would never have been made. It's the same way that the games on the N64 and GCN were so amazing what Nintendo made. They had to make amazing games just to stay in the game.
Now that I'm way off topic, I will say that unless Sony goes way overboard on the specs for the Orbis, the Japanese developers will probably make games for both the PS4 and the Wii U and the 720. I do think that how Nintendo goes will be how the industry reacts. If the Wii U is successful, games will be geared around the Wii U first and adapted to the other two systems. If the Wii U fails, then the PS4 will be the lead console and gamepad controls will be shoehorned in after the project is finished depending on the remaining budget.
I do also think that something has to give soon. Many of the so-called larger 3rd party devs are falling by the wayside due to the ballooning budgets for these HD games. If they don't figure out a way to control these costs (whether through making less of the big games and supplementing them with smaller download games, or by finding a way to actually make the development of the games cheaper), we will see a lot more devs falls like 38 Studios and what will probably happen to THQ soon and possibly Sega. It's going to happen in Japan as well. My hope is this will lead to better quality games and less of them so that everyone buying games will have a chance to buy all the good games and not have to figure their way through all the crap.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Mannypon on June 25, 2012, 04:23:59 AM
As for Sony's next console, I think they and Microsoft are constrained by the need to try to keep up with where PC specs are headed. Certain key developers like Epic, LucasArts, Ubisoft, and Square-Enix are starting to openly show support for tech only high-end PCs right now could handle, and that's support that neither company can afford to lose.
This is a belief that I think Sony and MS are falling for which I think is hurting the industry and is just exasperating the current bloated budget problems the industry is having. Sony and MS shouldn't be bending over backwards to satisfy Epic, Lucas Arts, Ubisoft and all the other big publishers pushing high end graphics. Sony, MS, and Nintendo make the market where these publishers can make their money. They should be deciding how far to push the envelope when it comes to tech. They have to realize that they are the ones in control. Lets say Sony and MS follow up their next systems based on the WiiU approach and only provide a slight bump in specs. What are Epic and friends going to do with all their high tech software? Are they going to ignore the big 3 (practically the whole market) and go strictly PC to satisfy the few who actually have high end pcs? I assure you if that were the case, Epic and friends will be dead within a year. The PC market doesn't have the legs to support these companies on its own, especially the segment of the PC gaming market specifically geared towards those with high end rigs. Epic and all the other publishers will adjust their software to work with whatever the big 3 put out or else they'll get no business. The notion that the big 3 should be aiming to satisfy these software companies is just ridiculous in my mind. That's like if all car companies purchased their engines through a 3rd party and the leading manufacture is aiming to only develop super car engines and forcing the whole market to adopt their lines of cars to implement those specs. Its unrealistic and will only hurt the industry.
Nintendo saw this coming years ago and was part of the reason they took the approach they did with the Wii. I remember hearing some of their speeches warning of the direction the industry was headed in. They wanted to force the industry to slow down but in the end, they failed to accomplish that goal. Instead of forcing the industry to slow down, all Nintendo managed to do is split it between the handheld market (low budget/Japanese) and the console market (big budget/mostly western and large companies). Nintendo now with the WiiU is trying to catch up with the market while still keeping development costs at a reasonable level.
At the rate things are going now, the video game industry will be a spittin' image of the movie industry here in the US. Eventually, all we'll get are high budget AAA sequels and games that take very little risks. Heck, that's almost all we see now. Year in and year out, we're getting CoD, Battlefield, and all these other FPS with big action scenes and set pieces that only last maybe 2 days worth of gaming if your strictly a single player kind of gamer. We're already starting to see the butchering of old franchises like Resident Evil and Final Fantasy. Dead Space is looking to be heading down that road too. I'm glad Nintendo is paving their own path again, someone has to do it. The WiiU might not get all the great AAA games but it'll still receive a steady stream of support (mostly from Japan) from developers and publishers that can just no longer hang in the market that Sony/MS (Epic and friends hovering over them like the puppeteers they are pulling the strings) have created
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: nickmitch on June 25, 2012, 05:38:22 AM
Sony's fine. They'll be around for a while. They may pull the plug on handhelds in a few years, but it'll take a lot for them to pull out of the video game market altogether.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: shingi_70 on June 25, 2012, 08:11:14 AM
Sony's fine. They'll be around for a while. They may pull the plug on handhelds in a few years, but it'll take a lot for them to pull out of the video game market altogether.
People said that about rim 2-3 years ago. Sony's problem is they do so much and have so many different product lines and price themselves out of the market.
A few companies just need to surive unitil next gen. Sega could easily make a huge comeback be leveraging old brands unil new games and continue to focus on the download space. As well as getting in talks with microzoft or sony and try tp get a deal do e like the sega and microsft one last ge or how ubisoft is with nintendo. That and s few games should habe been put off until next ge. Binary Domain would have sold a hell of alot more if this was the start of a new generation.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: shingi_70 on June 25, 2012, 08:49:02 AM
Also 38 studios werent killed ecuase kf rising dev costs on the console slace. Thry were killed becuase of the mmo they were creating and upper mangment not knowing what they were doing. Even kf this was last gen the result of 38 would ha e bee the same as the guys at top rucked up and mmos are resource draining. If they would have not started the mmo and went the bioware Obsidian route they would atill exist today and be on there third or foruth game.
THQ is another example of where rising dev clsts didnt kill thrm but people not knowing wbat they are doing. All of thws games for the most part are i the mid teir ranve what hurt them was making the PS3/360 version of Udraw because it didnt sell like the wii version did. Along with that they had a few games did well like homedront and would have covered tbe costs but the marketing budget was the same as a call ofduty or a balo and it killed most of the profit the game made.
While rising de costs are a serious issue in the industry alot of these comapnies are just making bad choices.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: ymeegod on June 25, 2012, 09:13:53 AM
"Nintendo saw this coming years ago and was part of the reason they took the approach they did with the Wii. "
And what happened with all the support? Gone. And even though the Xbox360 costed more, it's still around today so if you talk about bang for you buck, then MS would have won (well if it didn't have the hardware failure rate anyhow). $299 system that lasted 7/8 years vs $250 for an system that lasted barely 5?
Have to wait and see how aggressive Nintendo is with the WII U and who's it's targetting. Smart move would to price it as current generation (roughly $250) because relaying on WII customer base won't help them this time around. The WII was more or less an fad, kinda like the music games, it was hot but within a few years it dried itself out.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Chozo Ghost on June 25, 2012, 10:04:26 AM
I think if Sony were to step out of the games business, it would be a sad day for the industry and possibly a harbinger of darker days to come. Like them or not, they offer experiences that the other two console manufacturers are lacking (you'd never see Nintendo put out a game like The Last of Us or Beyond: Two Souls, and you'd never see Microsoft put out a game like Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time or LittleBigPlanet, for example),
I just want to say that Sony could step out of the hardware business and continue making these games on Microsoft and Nintendo's consoles (as well as PC and whatever else is available). Sega continues to make software even though they quit making hardware about 10 years ago.
Alternatively, the studios and talent that make them up could be sold off or spun off into independent companies and continue doing what they do now. They just wouldn't be owned by Sony. Would it really matter if Sony wasn't owning them just as long as they continued to do what they're doing now? Like Naught Dog for example. If Sony quit the video gaming business, do you think they would just cease to exist? No, they would either go independent or someone would buy them up.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: shingi_70 on June 25, 2012, 10:19:11 AM
Stipid tablet.
Meant to say Most of thq budgests are in the mid teir range.
Also people say that Japanese studios should be more Japanese, but what does that mean excatly?
Eith the onsole market in japan becoming less and less relevant and hanheld sales dwindling everywhere else it makes sense that japanese console efforts would be made with america/europe behind.
Another problem I think is alot of Japanese devs dont work on multi-platform games.
Namco wonders why the Tales series underpreforms and why Ni No Kuni will probably bomb as well. Developing for only the PS3 probably flies in japa but that **** is a no go everywhere else. Samething with colors not on HD systems and Generatoons not being on Wii.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: S-U-P-E-R on June 25, 2012, 10:49:16 AM
JAPANESE GAMES INDUSTRY DEATH WATCH 2012
Quote
Final Fantasy I, II, III and IV. Chrono Cross. Xenogears. The games to Hiromichi Tanaka's credit from his time at Square (and later Square Enix) read like a murderer's row of legendary RPGs. But Mr. Tanaka's time with the the company has come to an end. Citing a "major illness" as well as a desire to branch out on his own, Mr. Tanaka has left Square Enix, per an interview with Famitsu.
I wonder if that "major illness" was stress, stress-induced, or just code for general frustration.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Ian Sane on June 25, 2012, 03:30:16 PM
The idea of Japanese devs "westernizing" their games is counter-intuitive. If I want to play a Western game the Western will do it better than the Japanese devs. What I liked about Japanese devs is that their games are Japanese. There is a certain style to the best Japanese games that Western games don't have. I prefer the Japanese style and it's a big reason why I got into consoles more than PCs for games. Japanese companies need to continue to make Japanese games, only if they need to sell them in the West they have to filter out the Japan-only game concepts like Mahjong games. A lot of Japanese style games are popular in the West without any major changes needing to be made for that market.
One thing I don't care for is the lack of ambition. Ty is upset about the boring conservative nature of things and I guess that relates. This gen where are the best Japanese games? Nintendo is probably the most consistent and they basically re-released the Gamecube with a gimmick. Japanese devs are also putting a lot of interest into handhelds, which have vastly outdated hardware compared to consoles. It's like for a lot of Japanese devs the PS2/Cube level of hardware was the peak where they were comfortable. They seem baffled about how to make games on anything further. Of course if you just stick to something antiquated and comfortable you're not being ambitious. You're not really going to do much that hasn't been done before.
Of course Western devs aren't doing that much either, sticking to a lot of generic first person shooters. But at least we get good Western games on the HD consoles. Companies like Capcom, Square and Konami went from being consistently good devs to their good HD games being rare exceptions. The best PS360 games are predominantly Western.
Like Nintendo, Japan kind of reached it's peak with the "128 bit" gen and is kind of wandering around aimlessly with half-baked ideas.
The golden age is over.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: nickmitch on June 25, 2012, 03:55:13 PM
Sony's fine. They'll be around for a while. They may pull the plug on handhelds in a few years, but it'll take a lot for them to pull out of the video game market altogether.
People said that about rim 2-3 years ago. Sony's problem is they do so much and have so many different product lines and price themselves out of the market.
RIM's problems 3 years ago were declining sales and market share. They were definitely in trouble. Then, they followed it up by blowing R&D budgets unremarkable hardware with a dated OS. They've been dying since at least 2 years ago. Sony still has hope.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Louieturkey on June 25, 2012, 04:07:12 PM
THQ was always run by people who didn't know what they were doing. The rising dev costs finally forced them to address this. If they don't get people who know what they are doing, those rising dev costs will bankrupt them.
38 Studios got a $50 million grant/loan from the State of Rhode Island which was expected to be paid back mostly by the sales of Reckoning. Reckoning sold no where near what was expected (I think they thought they'd sell at least 5 million copies in the first month and it only sold 1.5 million). Dev costs meant they needed that much money to pay for the game. Kurt states they were on the verge of securing an additional $35 million loan to pay for dev costs on a sequel to Reckoning. They needed $35 million dollars to make a game with an engine already built and most likely many of the assets from the first game being reused.
If Reckoning had cost even just $10 million to make, they would have made a profit or broke even on it. As it is, they lost money on it because it cost so much to make. That's dev costs. Whether or not they were spending the money properly is irrelevant. They spent the money on dev costs and those were too high to make a profit on the game.
It's all about dev costs.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Kytim89 on June 25, 2012, 04:27:19 PM
With all of these western developers going under Nintendo would be smart to soak up all the talent from those studios and the create atleast two second party western developers to help supplement Retro. With the more competent leadership of Nintendo those people could make very good second party games to help attract an audience to the Wii U. Nintendo should buy out the good portions of THQ.
What I would like to see is Nintendo end of buying SEGA for a relatively cheap price. Then use the SEGA logo as a front for mature game developed by Nintendo owned developers. For example, Eternal Darkness 2 would be developed by SK, but financed by Nintendo with the SEGA logo on the front.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Louieturkey on June 25, 2012, 04:46:07 PM
The problem is THQ has no good portions. :P
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: broodwars on June 25, 2012, 04:49:02 PM
To be fair, Volition Inc. and Vigil Games do good work for them.
As for SEGA, they've so spectacularly bungled every good thing they've touched this generation that I wouldn't shed a tear if they went under.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Ian Sane on June 25, 2012, 05:25:42 PM
THQ going under is like Acclaim going under. Aside from general sympathy to the lower-level employees being out of a job, what reason is there to care? Acclaim made mostly **** games and so did THQ. A company with **** product is SUPPOSED to go under. That's a good thing. It means that world is working the way it should be.
What upsets me is when a good company with a good product goes out of business. Or when a crappy company with a crappy product succeeds.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Kytim89 on June 25, 2012, 05:33:08 PM
To be fair, Volition Inc. and Vigil Games do good work for them.
As for SEGA, they've so spectacularly bungled every good thing they've touched this generation that I wouldn't shed a tear if they went under.
Those are the two companies within THQ that I was refering to when I made my post.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Ceric on June 25, 2012, 05:52:23 PM
I'm going to chime in real quick and say that unless I've been reading a different Internet neither Sony or MS have come out and said to expect a large leap. In fact from the leaked stuff I've seen on MS side it looks like they are actually looking to make a Wii style leap. I don't expect them to be much more powerful then the Wii U. In fact I expect them to be on par with the Wii U in raw horsepower but with special tech to drive Kinect 2.0 and the Glasses.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Louieturkey on June 25, 2012, 06:24:28 PM
THQ going under is like Acclaim going under. Aside from general sympathy to the lower-level employees being out of a job, what reason is there to care? Acclaim made mostly **** games and so did THQ. A company with **** product is SUPPOSED to go under. That's a good thing. It means that world is working the way it should be.
What upsets me is when a good company with a good product goes out of business. Or when a crappy company with a crappy product succeeds.
38 Studios had excellent talent and made a pretty good game in Kingdoms of Amalur Reckoning. Their expectations for its sales were way too high unfortunately and it ultimately led to the demise of the studio. Luckily, Epic has snatched up a good portion of that talent and made a new studio in that area. So the talent will still work. We just won't get a new Reckoning game from them.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: TJ Spyke on June 25, 2012, 08:45:20 PM
THQ going under is like Acclaim going under. Aside from general sympathy to the lower-level employees being out of a job, what reason is there to care? Acclaim made mostly **** games and so did THQ. A company with **** product is SUPPOSED to go under. That's a good thing. It means that world is working the way it should be.
What upsets me is when a good company with a good product goes out of business. Or when a crappy company with a crappy product succeeds.
THQ has made some pretty good games the last couple of years, I would not consider them a shitty company in any way.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Chozo Ghost on June 25, 2012, 08:53:54 PM
THQ has made some pretty good games the last couple of years,
You mean like WWE '12?
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Shaymin on June 26, 2012, 08:58:16 AM
You should play Saints Row 3rd.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: house3136 on June 26, 2012, 11:53:36 AM
In terms of Microsoft, I didn’t read their supposed leaked document; but from what I’ve heard, their intention isn’t to make a huge leap this next generation with Xbox to keep costs lower. But the big part was they planned to switch to cloud gaming around 2015. I’m not familiar with the tech, but does that mean that they could stream games that could perform beyond the hardware specs? Then the Xbox would be used for Kinect v.2 and serving as an entertainment hub and utilizing devices like SmartGlass. That would also mean more profits, control of used games (although I still don’t think they could go 100% cloud, but some mixture with retail), and less piracy. I don’t know if that’s actually factual, and going to happen, but it doesn’t seem unreasonable; I’m sure some here know much better than I do. If that does happen then what does Sony do? Go overboard on specs and potentially run the risk of selling well below component cost, or make a reasonably powerful system that that they could get away charging $400 for and not bankrupt SCE? Also, with cloud gaming, is that something consoles can switch over to eventually, or does it require substantial server integration? That doesn’t seem like something Japanese companies would be willing to do overseas, whereas Microsoft may have more of a sure bet.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Ceric on June 26, 2012, 12:11:35 PM
In terms of Microsoft, I didn’t read their supposed leaked document; but from what I’ve heard, their intention isn’t to make a huge leap this next generation with Xbox to keep costs lower. But the big part was they planned to switch to cloud gaming around 2015. I’m not familiar with the tech, but does that mean that they could stream games that could perform beyond the hardware specs? Then the Xbox would be used for Kinect v.2 and serving as an entertainment hub and utilizing devices like SmartGlass. That would also mean more profits, control of used games (although I still don’t think they could go 100% cloud, but some mixture with retail), and less piracy. I don’t know if that’s actually factual, and going to happen, but it doesn’t seem unreasonable; I’m sure some here know much better than I do. If that does happen then what does Sony do? Go overboard on specs and potentially run the risk of selling well below component cost, or make a reasonably powerful system that that they could get away charging $400 for and not bankrupt SCE? Also, with cloud gaming, is that something consoles can switch over to eventually, or does it require substantial server integration? That doesn’t seem like something Japanese companies would be willing to do overseas, whereas Microsoft may have more of a sure bet.
If MS goes to the Cloud for gaming it would require for people to have Broadband capable Internet to play any game. Your console would essentially not be doing any of the heavy lifting. It would probably have in it hardware decompression for the Video, Sound, etc. A large server up on an Internet Backbone owned by MS would actually be rendering the game. You couldn't actually own the game itself because you wouldn't have the hardware to actually run it. I know that sounds sort of scary but, it moves gaming into the service category. Console generations would become partially meaningless. Buy the console, Pay MS a Subscription fee, and Play whatever game you want conceivably if they chose that model. BC compatibility would just be if the hosting Server was still up. Multiplayer would not be limited by the needs of shuffling data between consoles because it be between Servers who have a connection to each other that just isn't possible at home. Console upgrades would be as simple as MS bringing up new bigger servers. If designed right MS could even use the service to let you use your own PC to play the games.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: house3136 on June 26, 2012, 01:16:12 PM
That’s why I don’t think Xbox could go 100% cloud, because all users who purchased the console would be required to have high-quality internet service. And what about initial purchasers who bought it for physical media or download; they can’t just be abandoned. That’s what I think is interesting. If it’s true, then Microsoft could stream very next gen games to their users. But there will also be a portion of users who don’t use the cloud gaming service for whatever reason. So if the hardware specs of the next Xbox are the closer to Wii U, there may be more similar multiplatform support. Obviously that’s speculation based on the $299 price point the document entailed, if it’s even true. Then that’s a big decision for Sony; I think they will try to build the most powerful system they can afford. If Xbox could provide PC level games through their service, but their physical hardware is more in line with Wii U, it will be interesting where PlayStation positions itself.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Kytim89 on July 05, 2012, 01:31:33 PM
It appears that THQ has returned the rights to Devil's Third back to Tomobu Itagaki's studio, Valhalla Studios, as a cost cutting measure (they are going broke, you know?). This would be a perfect time for Nintendo to capture a potential third party exclusive. Nintendo could approach Itagaki and say, "We'll handle the publishing and finances for you game and in exchange for our service you will make your game, Devil's Third, an exclusive to the Wii U." Something like this would help win over a whole lot of Itagaki's fans, and might persuade them to buy the Wii U to have his latest game. It also helps to the core appeal of your console when you have the guy that made one of the most brutal menacing game series, Ninja Gaiden, what is today.
Last we heard, Devil's Third - the latest game from Ninja Gaiden mastermind and badass Tomonobu Itagaki - was on hold as publishers THQ looked to offload it (http://kotaku.com/5910600/ninja-gaiden-masterminds-new-game-is-on-hold). Well, now they've offloaded it, giving all rights back to the developers, Itagaki's Valhalla Studios. "THQ confirms that the company will not be publishing Devil's Third," a THQ spokesperson told Eurogamer. "All of the game's IP rights have been returned to Itagaki-san and the Valhalla team." Seeing as the game was so far off, and that we've barely seen anything from it, it's hard to muster many feelings one way or another on the project. But hey, Itagaki has his fans, so hopefully someone can come along and throw a little money their way, get this thing on shelves (or at least in a playable state so we can take a look at it!)
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: shingi_70 on July 05, 2012, 02:03:43 PM
Well the game is probably no where being finished and Itagaki would probably want to make a game around the touchpad instead of a quick and dirty port. Sony wont get it either as Itahaki has been very public on how he feels about them and the Kings Gaiden ports where mostly a company thing and not his doing.
Dude has been pretty close with Microsoft and this would be a great pick up though. Itagaki already is very good with that hardware and this not only gives them there own action game dev (not sure the genre) but also a dev thats known for fighting hales and could get a killer instinct off the ground.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Chozo Ghost on July 05, 2012, 05:21:41 PM
But doesn't Nintendo want to make "family friendly" games? Anything with the word "Devil" in the title might offend the soccer mom casuals. They did buy Fatal Frame which is M rated, but at least the title isn't likely to put people off.
Title: Re: Nintendo and the Decline of the Japanese Gaming Industry
Post by: Louieturkey on July 05, 2012, 06:30:37 PM
But doesn't Nintendo want to make "family friendly" games? Anything with the word "Devil" in the title might offend the soccer mom casuals. They did buy Fatal Frame which is M rated, but at least the title isn't likely to put people off.
Doesn't the new Brain Training game have the guy with devil horns on it? I keep wondering how Nintendo is going to market that one outside Japan.
