Next up are the categories that have a pretty large consensus as to what will win but due to other award ceremonies or outside factors could see an upset over the consensus pick. It's like 75% sure - 25% doubt.
Best Actress - Emma Stone. At first, it seemed like Natalie Portman might be winning this award with her portrayal of Jackie Kennedy but support for that film faded at Oscar nomination time and then she didn't win at the Golden Globes. That went to Isabelle Huppert for Elle and she seems to be Emma Stone's biggest competition having snagged some other awards along the way. It's her first Oscar nomination and could potentially be her only one so perhaps the academy may feel that Emma Stone will get another chance. However, I kind of doubt that. There are plenty of first-time or only one-time nominees who never win nor am I sure how familiar Academy members will be of her other work. Plus, her role is off-putting from what I hear whereas Emma's role is a bit more relatable and is the greater story arc of La La Land. I think this is Emma's night.
Best Supporting Actor - Mahershala Ali. Got burned in this category last year where the sentimental supposed favorite of Sylvester Stallone lost to Mark Rylance from Bridge of Spies. While Ali has won a lot of awards along the way for this role in Moonlight, Dev Patel did score a win in this category at Bafta which has some overlap with the academy and has a larger screen presence in Lion than Ali's role. Plus, Patel was the lead in Slumdog Millionaire so he's got some Oscar history. But Lion is the lowest ranked film when going by Metacritic at 69% and I don't often hear too many people talking about the film as their favorite. There are a few but not as many people who praise Moonlight. Plus, Ali has a small role in Hidden Figures which a lot of people also liked. I think the double coverage will allow Ali to win for people who want to support Moonlight and or Hidden Figures in a subtle way much like Vikander won supporting actress last year for The Danish Girl though some thought it might have also been for her role in Ex Machina. As an aside, Jeff Bridges was the character I liked the most in Hell or High Water and would be my choice.
Best Animated Film - Zootopia. This movie has the benefit of sitting at second place on Rotten Tomatoes rankings of top 100 2016 movies. It came out early in the year giving it plenty of time to be seen by many members of the academy and be familiar with it. However, Kubo and the Two Strings is slouch sitting at 10th place on the list and was released in the summer giving it time to be seen as well as even getting a nomination of Best Visual effects. Then there is Moana which had the benefit of being nominated for a Best Song. However, I don't think Moana is in the race. It's no Frozen and frankly I found the movie oddly paced and the journey lacking / a bit uneventful. Can't comment on Kubo since I haven't seen it but Zootopia was a rich world that I could see easily being made into a franchise and further explored not that being franchisable means a movie is better but that it had a lot ideas and characters it could explore and work with. Plus, I'm pretty sure there's a sort of rule that the academy loves cute looking animals and there are a lot of cutesy animals to be seen in it and from its posters.
Best Original Song - City of Stars, La La Land. There's talk that La La Land having two nominations in this category could cancel each other out and Moana could win. Song is often an iffy category and I was burned last year when Sam Smith's song for SPECTRE won over the presumed front runner of Lady Gaga for The Hunting Grounds. Personally, I didn't think How Far I'll Go from Moana was anything special. It's no Let it Go though it seems to be trying to mimic it. I could remember a bit of how Let It Go sounded but I can't recall anything of How Far I'll Go sounds. Plus, City of Stars has a couple of piano bars that worm their way into your brain. As soon as I read City of Stars, I can hear Gosling's voice and then the next couple notes to follow those words. As well, I think the Audition song that was also nominated from La La Land is one of the weakest songs in the movie. Some people talk about Stone's audition scene as this moving moment but I always felt the song fell flat and didn't work. Another Day of Sun would have been a far better choice and had it been nominated then there might have been more chance of a cancellation between it and City of Stars.
Best Cinematography - La La Land. Haven't seen Silence so I'm not sure how it compares but I don't think many have so it's probably not in the running. There have been arguments for Arrival, Moonlight or Lion winning this award over La La Land but, judging by other award ceremonies, it would seem La La Land will take the award. I don't think it compares to some of the past winners by Lubezki like The Revenant or Gravity but with the production design and costumes it's helped create an indelible look for when you see images of the film and its various shots through day, night and evening help illuminate the mood of the characters by the lighting. Moonlight is probably the biggest competition here and one of the few things I liked about that film.
Best Visual Effects - The Jungle Book. This seems to be the consensus choice for the most part although Dr. Strange has picked up an award or two. After Ex Machina winning last year which was maybe the biggest surprise of the night and completely unexpected, who knows where this category could end up. The person behind The Jungle Book has won a couple Oscars before for visual effects and the movie is at number 6 of Rotten Tomatoes best of 2016 movies leading to Disney kicking off plans for more Live Action remakes. Again, I think the academy loves animals so it is my choice but after last year, I believe any film nominated here could be a winner.
Best Production Design - La La Land. La La Land seems to be the top choice here as well and like I commented in Cinematography, its production designs and sets help give it a distinctive look and occasionally reach some great cinematic moments. Yet, BAFTA went with Fantastic Beasts as their choice. If you look back at previous winners, this category is full of odd choices. Alice in Wonderland, Hugo, Lincoln, The Great Gatsby, The Grand Budapest Hotel and Mad Max: Fury Road. There's no great precedent to follow here. If La La Land wins, it will be for its epilogue in a flurry of sets designed to invoke past musicals like An American In Paris and its finale. Personally, I think Hail Caesar might be the best choice for this category as its being set on a film lot allowed for a lot of great set pieces. The question is whether members will bother to pick what they think is the best or just select La La Land as a big winner for being so popular. Moreover, Hail Caesar isn't nominated for anything else and past winners at least had multiple nominations in other categories.
Best Make-up and Hairstyling - Star Trek Beyond. This category is a bit of a mess with Suicide Squad actually being a lot of other pundits top choice. A Man Called Ove seems to be getting dismissed by most everyone since aging make-up doesn't seem to be as flashy as it once was with Benjamin Button or La Vie en Rose. Star Trek won this movie 8 years ago and was regarded as a bit more critically successful than Suicide Squad so I think the academy will go with that. This is a weird competition.
Topic: Khushrenada's Annual Oscar Thread. 2017 Edition. (Read 9358 times)
