Author Topic: Nintendo Switch Launch Lineup - About 17 Minutes.  (Read 62124 times)

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Offline nickmitch

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #50 on: May 30, 2016, 07:04:22 PM »
I also wonder when a new 3D Mario will launch.  It's not as tricky as a Splatoon sequel, though.  Zelda has to be at launch since the Wii U version is delayed to coincide with the system launch.  So, that kinda of rules it out, right?  Too many big guns on day one means nothing left for the holiday.  First holiday makes sense, since it's Mario.  But both of these presumes that a game is ready, or going to be ready by then.  I suppose it's been long enough since 3D World, but 3D World was clearly building off of 3D Land.  Hopefully this new one is from scratch and isn't of the "new" variety.
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Offline NWR_insanolord

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #51 on: May 30, 2016, 07:13:55 PM »
I think 3D Mario is a lock for launch. They need to come out of the gate strong, and a Zelda port isn't enough for that.
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Offline Oedo

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #52 on: May 30, 2016, 08:25:25 PM »
Given how many times Zelda has been delayed and how long the writing has been on the wall for the Wii U, I'm not sure the Wii U is still the lead platform for that game. At this point it seems more likely to me that it'll be a fully featured NX game that also has a Wii U port. With the NX launching in March, I think you're depending on core gamers picking it up for strong initial sales numbers. Zelda is arguably Nintendo's most appealing franchise when it comes to that crowd, so I think it's reasonable to have that as the one big release right out of the gate. 3D Mario makes more sense during Holiday 2017 when they're really going to depend on families picking up the console for strong sales and they do need something big and new for that time of the year.

Offline NWR_insanolord

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #53 on: May 30, 2016, 08:37:31 PM »
Nintendo can't afford to be conservative with the launch. They can't just have one big release, they need to blow the doors off the thing, and EAD Tokyo will have had three years to work on it by then, so they should be ready. If they don't have something else in the pipeline they can release for Holiday 2017 they've already lost.
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Offline Luigi Dude

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #54 on: May 30, 2016, 09:11:42 PM »
For 95% of the population, Zelda will be an NX game since that will be the version Nintendo advertises like mad and potentially releases first just like Twilight Princess.  Even if the Wii U version ends up being the superior one, Nintendo will still make sure the NX version is the one everyone see and knows about in 2017.  Yeah the hardcore fans will know better but Nintendo clearly wants the NX, especially at launch to appeal to people beyond the hardcore Nintendo fans since the Wii U showed this group doesn't equal large hardware sales.

Of course Nintendo will probably have Pikmin 4 and some kind of new IP at launch to try and entice the hardcore so it won't be a complete neglect.  But since this new Zelda is going to be an open world game, Nintendo is clearly is aiming for Ocarina of Time/Twilight Princess level sales again.  There's no point in releasing a major 3D Mario at the same time since it would just take attention away from Zelda.  Especially if the new 3D Mario is going to be something new and innovative to the franchise as well, there's no point in releasing 2 potential genre revolutionizing killer apps at the same time.

Now I expect Mario Kart to be their holiday 2017 title but I think if Zelda is a launch title in March, then 3D Mario is probably being saved for August or September.  Much better way to space out the big guns and maintain hype while stuff like Luigi's Mansion and some new IP's or other smaller franchise revivals fill in the gaps in between.
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Offline NWR_insanolord

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #55 on: May 30, 2016, 09:26:06 PM »
I really don't think Zelda is the draw a lot of you are making it out to be. Even forgetting that it's a port, if they hope to sell the system to a mainstream audience early on that's not going to cut it. Zelda and Pikmin just gets you the Wii U audience, which they already had.
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Offline TOPHATANT123

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #56 on: May 30, 2016, 09:45:13 PM »
I think if you release one big game then another a month later, a consumer would have to make two separate decisions about whether or not to buy the system. If you release two big games on the same day a single decision will be made and the thought may not cross their mind again until the next big game comes out for the system.

Offline Oedo

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #57 on: May 30, 2016, 10:02:15 PM »
It depends on what you mean by mainstream audience. If you're talking about kids and families, then sure, but like I said I think that demographic is much more likely to pick up the console during the holidays regardless of what Nintendo puts out in March. Nintendo, by their own admission, does the majority of their business during the holidays and that's due in no small part to the fact that this is when families are willing to make these kinds of purchases.

If you're talking about about teens or adults who are multi-platform gamers, then I'm not really seeing the argument that a new HD open world Zelda game isn't a huge draw. If they deliver on the promise of a great, open world Zelda game, that's going to be a big deal in the larger gaming world, especially in March when we don't typically see a lot of big releases.

Offline ThePerm

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #58 on: May 30, 2016, 11:07:48 PM »
I think Zelda still has the draw as a launch title.
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Offline Ian Sane

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #59 on: May 31, 2016, 12:32:41 PM »
I think a 3D Mario at launch would be great and Nintendo has to go big with the NX launch to get anyone to even notice.  But Nintendo's development has been slow since like 2010 or so.  We all thought they abandoned the Wii prematurely to focus on Wii U launch games but that wasn't the case.  Nope it was just NSMB and Nintendo Land, neither of which seemed to require such a long development time.  I figure we'll get another NSMB game just because it's a relatively easy game to make in a short time.  A really good 3D Mario takes much more time so I expect delays.  There is no indication that Nintendo has gotten their **** together involving dev times or have beefed up their teams.  They need to deliver big but I don't have confidence that they will, or that they're even aware of what they need to do.

I feel like what Nintendo needs to do and what Nintendo probably will do are different topics of discussion.

Offline nickmitch

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #60 on: May 31, 2016, 12:53:01 PM »
For 95% of the population, Zelda will be an NX game since that will be the version Nintendo advertises like mad and potentially releases first just like Twilight Princess.  Even if the Wii U version ends up being the superior one, Nintendo will still make sure the NX version is the one everyone see and knows about in 2017.  Yeah the hardcore fans will know better but Nintendo clearly wants the NX, especially at launch to appeal to people beyond the hardcore Nintendo fans since the Wii U showed this group doesn't equal large hardware sales.

Except for the fact that the Wii U version is not only the sole version being shown at E3, it's the only thing Nintendo is demoing at all.  So, that marketing blitz starts this year with 100% focus on the Wii U version.  To suddenly pimp the NX version would mean flipping the script a bit.

Honestly, I think that plays into Insano's point.  If Zelda is a Wii U game that happens to be on NX, then the NX will need a game to show off its features.  A 3D Mario would be the perfect attention grabber.

. . ., and EAD Tokyo will have had three years to work on it by then, so they should be ready.

Though we have to factor in fluctuating versions of the NX hardware and, if the game started on Wii U, the time it takes to move it up to new hardware to begin with.  Plus, to Ian's point, Nintendo's lack of efficiency with making HD games.  3 years might not be enough time.

I'm wondering if maybe we'll get a Galaxy 1&2 HD at launch and the real meat and potatoes at Holiday.  That in itself sounds like a tall order.
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Offline TOPHATANT123

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #61 on: May 31, 2016, 02:15:50 PM »
The Tokyo team is pretty good at getting games out quick.

Donkey Kong Jungle Beat

~ 36 Months Later

Super Mario Galaxy

~31 Months Later

Super Mario Galaxy 2

~18 Months Later

Super Mario 3D Land

~ 24 Months Later

Super Mario 3D World

~ 12 Months Later

Captain Toad Treasure Tracker

By the time the NX comes out they'll have had very roughly 29 months.

Offline Adrock

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #62 on: May 31, 2016, 02:32:24 PM »
I have doubts Nintendo launches with a new Zelda and Mario even if the former is a port. If Retro Studios' apparently non-Metroid game is ready (and after over three year since Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, it damn well better be), I think that's a better launch title than a brand new game in an established franchise. A completely new IP from one of the industry's most revered teams will do more favors than 3D Mario will at launch. Nintendo is already preaching to the choir with Zelda (and the rumored ports of Super Mario Maker and Super Smash Bros. for Wii U). Nintendo fans already have NX on their mind. They need less convincing than everyone else. Having a non-established launch release further separates Nintendo from the Wii brand.

Nintendo is already going against tradition by launching a console in March which I think is okay because it's better than launching in November with no games. That said, it may not be bad idea to launch a new 3D Mario in the summer. Mario is an evergreen title; it'll sell no matter what so Using it to keep the release momentum going is something I'd like to see Nintendo try. Then, it can cap the year off with Mario Kart 9.

Offline nickmitch

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #63 on: May 31, 2016, 02:34:48 PM »
I think the relevant gaps there are DKJB to SMG and 3D Land to 3D World: three years and two years, respectively.  The 3 year gap was a new 3D Mario, on new hardware.  The 2 year gap was the HD game, new hardware, but still building off of the last game.  So, launch might be just enough time, but it seems like it might be closer to the 36.
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Offline KeyBilly

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #64 on: May 31, 2016, 05:33:11 PM »
Launching with both Zelda and mainline Mario would be extremely aggressive.  I could see a lot of people buying one and waiting for the other to go on sale.  It would also not leave much time for them to properly pimp out Mario, if the March release really happens.  I don't think it would make sense, unless they don't have much else ready to go for launch.

Mario Kart is a system seller, but 8 seems too close to me for a new title.  They might do a port with all the DLC, similar to the Smash port that is rumored.  They could do this with many games, including Fire Emblem 3DS titles, to avoid gaps in their release schedule.

Offline ThePerm

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #65 on: May 31, 2016, 05:47:37 PM »
Anybody think they can pull off a 3d donkey kong game on nx super powered hardware? Think Drakes Uncharted starring a gorilla and a monkey.

I wouldn't say anything done at launch could be considered aggressive. Launch should be aggressive. People buy the most games at launch.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2016, 05:50:27 PM by ThePerm »
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Offline NWR_insanolord

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #66 on: May 31, 2016, 06:01:18 PM »
Think Drakes Uncharted starring a gorilla and a monkey

Wow, that is a really intriguing idea.
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Offline Ian Sane

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #67 on: May 31, 2016, 06:05:27 PM »
I see no reason to "save" something for later in the year.  The launch is probably not going to have that good of third party support so it's going to be thin.  Therefore having a couple BIG games from Nintendo is going to mask that and make a better first impression.  Strong launch sales are pretty much a necessity for the NX to attract any sort of real third party interest.  The few third parties on board at the Wii U launch were real quick to bail once the initial sales weren't that great.

So if everything is at launch what shows up for Christmas?  Well if Nintendo is in that sort of shape they're in trouble anyway.  But if there is no way around that I think a strong launch with a bit of a drought afterwards would be a better situation than a console that takes too long to build up a decent lineup.  At least a strong launch/drought means that there will be options for newcomers while a slow drip release means a weak lineup for everyone for the first little while.  It isn't like those that buy the NX at launch are going to suddenly trade it in and give up on it if they get a bit of a drought.  But if the console doesn't have a good lineup for the first six months or a year or whatever then it will never go anywhere.  If they front load the releases then it has a good lineup ASAP.  Plus if porting is easy then third parties might be able to get games out for Christmas after being enticed by strong launch sales.

Offline KeyBilly

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #68 on: May 31, 2016, 06:21:44 PM »
A 3D Donkey Kong with Uncharted level graphics could be exciting, if the gameplay was more Galaxy or Bandicoot than DK64.  Some sections could switch to 2D, similar to Galaxy or Prime.  I don't know if the NX will be up to Uncharted 4 standards, but even the PS3 games were visually impressive.

Ian Sane, the NX could have a great launch compared to most without a big Mario title.  Really, all titles are "held back" until it is the most strategic time to release them.  The holidays are where a lot of money will be spent and they need to hit that hard too.  The main thing is to have a well-rounded group of titles in March, along with Zelda.  If they really need Mario because they have nothing else ready to flesh out the lineup, that would be a problem.  Mario should get the star treatment and be hyped up at next E3 and throughout the year.  Just my thinking.

Offline BranDonk Kong

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #69 on: May 31, 2016, 06:24:38 PM »
My prediction: Super Mario 3D Maker
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Offline ThePerm

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #70 on: May 31, 2016, 06:38:26 PM »
I had went to put Super Mario 3d maker in a previous post, but then my internet crashed. With Minecraft around why not? Althoug I imagine a Mario 3d maker would be more like tony hawk editor than minecraft. I made some awesome levels on Tony Hawk 2.
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Offline KeyBilly

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #71 on: May 31, 2016, 06:56:21 PM »
SM3D Maker seems like an inevitability, but the 2D version still has so much room to grow.  With that said, navigating a 3D level interface might show off whatever their new controller is and doing something big with Mario Maker would work well to generate interest.  Even with the low Wii U sales, Mario Maker Let's Plays get a crazy number of views.

Offline Ian Sane

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #72 on: May 31, 2016, 07:19:33 PM »
Super Mario 3D Maker sounds like a cool idea but it loses the nostalgia factor of Super Mario Maker.  There are no retro graphics to go with unless it's all flat Paper Mario style.  Frankly I find the NSMB style graphics in SMM to be really dull so I rarely use them.  I think having the SMB, SMB3 and SMW style graphics is a big part of the appeal - like people can make that old Mario game they daydreamed about as a kid.  Super Mario 3D Maker would lose that, even though it would probably still be a great game.  Plus designing a 3D level is a lot harder than a 2D one so you probably wouldn't have as large of a builder community.  I think the game would sell well but wouldn't be as well received as the 2D game.

Super Mario Maker isn't just a level-designer.  It's also a celebration of Mario's history and the retro sprites are key to achieving that.

Offline ThePerm

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #73 on: May 31, 2016, 07:21:19 PM »
This is last years news, but it should fit into the discussion.

http://www.ign.com/articles/2015/06/17/e3-2015-next-proper-metroid-prime-game-not-likely-until-nintendos-next-console

As of this time last year there haven't been resources dedicated to Metroid HD. Maybe shortly after they got some. It also gives us a sneak peak into NX. He think "nah man Metroid will take too long to make, and that ****'d be better on nx anway"
« Last Edit: May 31, 2016, 07:38:26 PM by ThePerm »
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Offline EasyCure

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Re: NX Launch Lineup
« Reply #74 on: May 31, 2016, 07:41:25 PM »
SM3D Maker seems like an inevitability, but the 2D version still has so much room to grow.  With that said, navigating a 3D level interface might show off whatever their new controller is and doing something big with Mario Maker would work well to generate interest.  Even with the low Wii U sales, Mario Maker Let's Plays get a crazy number of views.

Prediction that'll never come true:

The follow up to NX will fully embrace VR because the tech had advanced enough to be effective and affordable, and that is when we will get a super Mario 3D maker.

Why VR? because I saw this and wanted a new Mario Paint, but thought how much cooler having 3d set pieces would be.
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