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Gaming Forums => Nintendo Gaming => Topic started by: Miyamoto on December 04, 2016, 06:30:17 AM

Title: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on December 04, 2016, 06:30:17 AM
I don't think the Nintendo Switch will be a success. I think third-party support will be non-existent and even though Nintendo already has a library of thousands of games over three decades, they will choose to either not make it all readily available or charge too much for it. I think people looking for a home console will favour the PS4/Xbox One and I think people looking for mobile gaming will favour their phones. I think the Switch will struggle to reach 15 million lifetime sales and in five years Nintendo will release a new console which is essentially a super stripped down dongle for $80 that has media services and budget gaming (which by then will be fine) and an IOS/Android phone suite for mobile gaming.



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Luigi Dude on December 04, 2016, 07:17:30 AM
Only 15 million LTD sales, what the ****? :confused;

Seriously, the Wii U has managed to sell over 13 million in 4 years and Nintendo fucked that system up in nearly every way possible.  The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup) and third party support sound better at least right now then it was with the Wii U where you had some third parties outright saying they wouldn't support the Wii U and sent it's dev kits back to Nintendo without even looking at them.  So far nothing that bad has come from third parties on the Switch.

Plus you seem to forget this is basically a hybrid that will be combining all of Nintendo's resources so the handheld won't be eating away at the home console anymore since both will now be the same.  You can't forget the over 60 million 3DS owners that this thing is going to be appealing to since it's a 3DS successor as well.

The only way the Switch does that bad is if Nintendo pulls a Sony and makes it $599 US Dollars and then refuses to drop the price for 4 years like they did with the Wii U.  They wouldn't literally have to go out of their way and intentionally sabotage the system like Sega did the Saturn to get numbers that bad because the hype alone is already much greater then the Wii U's was before launch.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on December 04, 2016, 07:23:50 AM
third party support sound better at least right now then it was with the Wii U where you had some third parties outright saying they wouldn't support the Wii U and sent it's dev kits back to Nintendo without even looking at them.


Which third parties?



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Adrock on December 04, 2016, 03:08:00 PM
The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
I'd even put hardware on there. I'm not even talking about power though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance which is nothing short of a miracle on a handheld. The fact that Nintendo finally ditching PowerPC is one of the most important things going for Switch. Almost everything supports ARM these days. That decision alone will save a lot of people a lot of headaches, both at third parties and within Nintendo.

Anyway, even before January's full unveiling, at this juncture I consider anything less than 3DS-family sales to be underperforming for Switch. Underperforming also doesn't mean failure. If it ended up with 50 million units sold, that's still good, but it should still sell more. After next year, Switch will have almost all of Nintendo's first party output. To me, that's more than enough to push it over 15 million sales. Nintendo might get that in Switch's first year.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on December 04, 2016, 03:24:00 PM
We really don't know enough about the system right now to do anything but guess. Even if you take the most prominent rumors as fact, there's still so much about the system we don't know.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Adrock on December 04, 2016, 03:35:11 PM
Even with more information, we'd still just be guessing. That said, for reasons already stated, I just can't see Switch struggling to reach 15 million lifetime sales.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Order.RSS on December 04, 2016, 04:00:01 PM
Anyway, even before January's full unveiling, at this juncture I consider anything less than 3DS-family sales to be underperforming for Switch. Underperforming also doesn't mean failure. If it ended up with 50 million units sold, that's still good, but it should still sell more. After next year, Switch will have almost all of Nintendo's first party output. To me, that's more than enough to push it over 15 million sales. Nintendo might get that in Switch's first year.

Idk about this, I mean granted I'm by no means an expert and don't really follow sales much. But hasn't 3DS moved like, 60 million units? Do consoles outsell handhelds usually? (I'm asking because I wouldn't know!)
Given Nintendo's track record with things like N64, GameCube, Wii U wouldn't something in the 30-40 mill frame make more sense? I don't know if it's really going to take off like Wii did to be honest.

If people really start using Switches out of the house so they're visible in public, they have fun unique games as well as the ones people want (shooters, sports games, western RPGs), then yeah I could see it being successful. Definitely think you're right that it will surpass Wii U, but it will need to do so fairly quickly if they really want it to catch on.


Things like battery life, durability and lightning-in-a-bottle moments of tapping into whatever cultural zeitgeist is relevant at the time all seem like (at this point) still very uncertain aspects. Hoping to be wrong here but I definitely understand why people have reservations.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on December 04, 2016, 04:27:27 PM


The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance


So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS 4 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.
 



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on December 04, 2016, 04:47:45 PM
So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar?

The difference there is Switch is going to have more than one year at the roughly same level of power as its contemporaries. Developers already had PS4/Xbox One devkits by the time Wii U was out, whereas they're going to be supported for several years after Switch launches. If it's as easy to port to from those systems as has been indicated and it doesn't totally bomb saleswise early on publishers are going to be a lot more inclined to support the thing than they were the Wii U.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on December 04, 2016, 04:53:13 PM
Don't get me wrong, I really want the Switch to be a success, and I'd love to be posting here in a couple of years time about how I got it massively wrong, but I find it really hard to be optimistic. Everything is telling me this isn't going to work out. It's one thing for publishers to be able to easily port games to the Switch but will they do it if games fail to sell on the console?



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on December 04, 2016, 04:59:51 PM
If it's as easy to port to as we've heard, the bar of how much those ports need to sell to be worth it is going to be substantially lower than it was on Wii U, and if Nintendo gives it the strong push it needs to sell well early on the higher user base than Wii U had will prompt publishers to give it more chances. That's a lot of ifs, and I'm not totally convinced they'll be able to hit them myself, but I think there are valid reasons to be optimistic that they'll do better this time.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Agent-X- on December 04, 2016, 05:34:13 PM


The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance


So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS 4 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.


Mind share is currently strongly going in the Switch's favor. I've been surprised most by who is talking about the Switch. FYI: Everyone saw Nintendo's teaser trailer, and people are honestly talking about it whenever the topic of games comes up. I don't just mean in a little circle of gamers but out in public and around the office (I work for a cloud technology company). The talk while not universally glowing shows interest exists, and people are genuinely interested in it as a portable they can play on their TV.


I'm not the biggest fan of the Switch for the same reasons you're listing. However, the vibe I'm getting is not totally unlike the one the Wii had. This device has got sales potential.


Another factor I think should be considered is that since the Wii U tanked so badly, a lot of gamers turned to purchasing the other console to go with their initial console pick up (ie. bought a PS4 and then bought an XB1, and bought an XB1 so bought a PS4 later). The thing I'm hearing now is that these multi-console owners are saying they're likely to sell one of their consoles and get a Switch. As someone else on here had pointed out before, the NS has tremendous opportunity to be the "and console" to everyone else's PS4 and XB1 primary purchases. I am now coming around on this belief because most hardcore gamers don't want to miss out on Nintendo's stable of games. They're just waiting for Nintendo to re-enter their market with something that doesn't feel like a huge gimmick.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on December 04, 2016, 05:35:49 PM


The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance


So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS3 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.
 





No, Nintendo has never released specs for the Switch. We don't know if it's weaker or more powerful. We know it will be more powerful than Wii U, which in some ways was better than ps4 and xbox 360, and in some ways more powerful. Based on the processor line, Switch is likely to have more advanced processors than either xbox one or ps4. The amount of ram is a question though. Xbox One is $249 right now and has 8gb of RAM. The Switch is going to have a screen, so that could make the cost more, however it is likely to have a generic screen, which could bring the cost down, The switch will not have an optical drive, and that will bring the cost down.

The Shield is the best thing to compare it to. The shield is/was nvidia's product that came in handheld, console, and tablet form. Right now the Shield Tablet costs $199. Switch is likely going to be very similar to the Shield hardware wise, but likely much more powerful because Shield Tablet is 2 years old now.

Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Adrock on December 05, 2016, 04:35:32 AM
The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance
So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS 4 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.
That's some pretty egregious selective quoting there. If that's how you're going about this discussion, count me out.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on December 05, 2016, 06:48:03 AM
third party support sound better at least right now then it was with the Wii U where you had some third parties outright saying they wouldn't support the Wii U and sent it's dev kits back to Nintendo without even looking at them.


Which third parties?





(http://cdn.gamer-network.net/2016/usgamer/Nintendo-Switch-Shot-06.jpg)

There is no confirmed list of games, but many of these franchises were either on nVidia Shield or were on Wii U, Wii, and 3ds.

Bethesda Skyrim and Fallout, also owns ID software who make the Doom series
Take-Two GTA, Red Dead, NBA
Square-Enix - Final Fantasy, Tomb Raider, Kingdom Hearts
Konami - Metal Gear, Castlevania, silent hill (but mostly pachinko games because the executives went batshit)
Capcom - Street Fighter, Resident Evil, Mega Man, Dead Rising
Ubisoft -Assassins Creed, Beyond Good and Evil, Rayman, Prince of Persia
Koei-Tecmo - Dynasty Warriors, Dead or Alive, Ninja Gaiden
Sega - Sonic, Virtual Fighter, House of the Dead, Shenmue(likely exclusive to ps4)
Bandai Namco - Tekken,Soul Calibur
WB - Mortal Kombat, Batman/Arkham games
EA - Madden, Battlefield, Star Wars
Activision- Call of Duty

I'm pretty optimistic about many of these games coming to Switch that wouldn't normally be on Nintendo platforms. nVidia was able to get many of these games on Shield. A few of these on the official list have stayed the hell away from Nintendo platforms, seeing them on board is a positive sign.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on December 05, 2016, 10:33:28 AM
If it's as easy to port to as we've heard, the bar of how much those ports need to sell to be worth it is going to be substantially lower than it was on Wii U, and if Nintendo gives it the strong push it needs to sell well early on the higher user base than Wii U had will prompt publishers to give it more chances. That's a lot of ifs, and I'm not totally convinced they'll be able to hit them myself, but I think there are valid reasons to be optimistic that they'll do better this time.


The signs so far are not great. There's a lot of third party games confirmed for 2017 and nothing for the Switch. No "and other next gen consoles" nothing. The Switch will probably get a COD and a FIFA but it needs the full range of games coming to the Xbox One and PS 4 if it wants to compete on that level, which isn't going to happen.



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on December 05, 2016, 10:35:58 AM


The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance


So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS3 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.
 





No, Nintendo has never released specs for the Switch. We don't know if it's weaker or more powerful.




Nintendo hasn't but enough developers have leaked information to make it pretty clear that the Switch is not going to be as powerful as the Xbox One / PS 4 and very far away from PS4 Pro / Scorpio.





Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on December 05, 2016, 10:36:47 AM
The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance
So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS 4 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.
That's some pretty egregious selective quoting there. If that's how you're going about this discussion, count me out.


Duly noted. Goodbye.



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on December 05, 2016, 10:42:15 AM
third party support sound better at least right now then it was with the Wii U where you had some third parties outright saying they wouldn't support the Wii U and sent it's dev kits back to Nintendo without even looking at them.


Which third parties?








When I asked which third parties? I was referring to the supposed third parties that "outright saying they wouldn't support the Wii U and sent it's dev kits back to Nintendo without even looking at them." Which third parties did this? And as an aside, that list of third party support for the Switch really isn't very good. I'm sorry and I know all those logos look good but I really can't see third party support being any better on the Switch than it was on the Wii U. sure, we'll have a launch bump from Ubi, Activision, EA and a few others will port over a few games a piece that have been readily available for years on the other two consoles, then the well will start to dry up and we'll be right back to where we are now.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: supermario2k on December 05, 2016, 03:42:53 PM
Realistic prediction, I honestly truly believe this thing will sell 80-90 million easy.
Modest Prediction, this thing is going to sell at least 50 million no question.
Prediction based on gut feeling and wishful thinking depending on news still to be released: 155 million, a slight stretch but doable.

There is no way this thing does worse than Game Cube, period. This already has hype. Game Cube had no hype, it was overshadowed by shortages and news reports of long ass lines of people still trying to get their hands on PS2. And it was overshadowed by the onslaught of Xbox marketing. This thing isn't even formally announced and it has hype and buzz building.

Wii U had not hype it had the opposite of hype, it's reveal had people either confused, or underwhelemed. It bombed, hard, because it was a mess from day one, no clear message, no real excuse to even exist. The only issue from Wii it "fixed" was HD which itself introduced a host of new issues.

Wii was not lightning in a bottle, it was NES 2.0, twenty years later. It had hype, it had nostalgia, it had a killer app, it was mass-market priced. The only thing it did wrong was being SD only and forcing waggle on games that would have been perfect if the Classic controller had been an option.

If Wii was lighting in a bottle, how did DS do so well? Everything in the market said it should have failed. It was a confusing product, it didn't fill a whole it only created a new platform that, at first, appeared to cater to a mass non-gaming market but then turned into the ultimate gaming platform, why? Because it did was gamers expected it to no more, no less.

That is the very formula that has made Playstation a success nearly without fault for 2 decades straight. You make the machine the gamers want, they buy it, game makers make games for it they sell rinse and repeat.

The Switch is the same formula it is Nintendo getting back to basics while recognizing the thing that saves them, their handheld market, is also the thing that is currently their downfall if they don't adapt. They finally woke up and realize their core market, that 80 million I keep quoting, doesn't care about specs, never have, they only care about a game player that plays games no bullshit.

N64 played games but was riddle with bullshit. First carts when the whole industry was going CD. This lost it major multimedia franchises not just Final Fantasy but GTA, Tomb Raider, Resident Evil (for the most part), Metal Gear, Silent Hill, those story based games that helped make Playstation the empire it is.

Oh but the factor we all forget about the **** of the N64, the elephant in the room, that godawful controller that you had to shell out TWICE as much money for as was typical of the day AND you had to have 4 of them. The downfall of the N64 was also the thing that saved Nintendo. I.e. that damn 4 player monstrosity. Sure *we* all loved the multiplayer games but what we failed to take into account, what Nintendo relied heavily upon despite our ignorance, was they could sell 1 person a console, get their friends to shell out the $50-60 bucks for their favorite color controller, buy *1* copy of the 4-player game and invite their friends over. So Nintendo could sell 30 million consoles but make their money off controllers and accessories, they didn't need 3rd parties they didn't need as many games. And when each game was $60-$70 they could milk their userbase for every penny. On the surface it backfired, it drove their core base away, but as perm pointed out to me many times over, no it didn't it just drove them to the handheld which was cheaper and everyone could buy the handheld, own their own personalized flavor, and only needed 1 friend with the console they could all share. The lack of true, deep, single player must have experiences led many to shift to the handheld or migrate to Sony.

Game Cube. Where do I start. No online was an issue but year 1, more than anything
Potential customer: These two play games *AND* dvd's, that one JUST plays games and mostly just Nintendo games, looks like PS2 has Nintendo-esque games anyways so there you have it, buy the DVD player that also plays games. Oh and it happens to be online too, sweet, oh and it plays PS1 games, and it ONLY costs $300 when that game only player cost $250, yeah no brainer.

Like it or not, accept it or not, not playing DVD's killed Game Cube period. Everything else Nintendo could have overcome, if they worked at it hell they barely sold just over 20 million and still managed to get dozens of quality, true exclusives that the other two missed out on. Nintendo did everything right with Game Cube except it didn't play DVD's., online wasn't a factor until near the end and by that point even if they had it it wouldn't have made a difference but not having the same size disk and not being able to play movies, at least for that first year or two out, cut off any chance it had.

So far, there is no major bullshit stopping people from looking at the Switch and going, why bother?

There is nothing holding it back. It might force you to use SD cards, well every single device that ISN'T made by Apple already does that, so what? Do you not own an SD card? Liar.

Battery life? This is not 1992 when you had to shell out cash for AA batteries. This is 2016/2017 where everyone, EVERYONE carries multiple devices and multiple charges on them at all times. Hell most devices charge using, USB, another port that not only does everything have, but this thing also supports itself. You take your Switch to the office, no need for a charge plug it into the USB of your PC, at the air port stick it into a wall charger, on a bus, why the HELL are you on a bus?

The people looking at this negative, the people who are saying this sucks or this will suck, I get the sense that most of them are the same people who just complain up front whenever a Playstation that doesn't bear the name Nintendo is announced and whenever a Nintendo machine that isn't just a Playstation that bears the name Nintendo they have to throw a fit.

The SNES was regarded as one of the greatest consoles of all time and that son of a bitch sold less than the much maligned Xbox 360 and the shameful PS3. And the hated PSP. And the supposedly not doing well 3DS. I guess people just like to bitch.

I honestly cannot think of 1 legit reason to be skeptical other than fear, irrational fear of whatever. Maybe Nintendo will find a way to Nintendo it up, but I doubt it, it seems to me they finally realized the truth, they have 1 userbase that easily equals if not exceeds their rivals if they could just tap into it right. I think they did that here. I could be wrong, we could all be wrong. These are just my insane ramblings for you all to ponder.

But regardless its just a toy. No matter how well it sells or doesn't sell at the end of the day IT IS JUST A TOY.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on December 05, 2016, 10:39:10 PM
I own like 10 SD cards. I own several usb flash drives. External Hardrives. We heard rumors it wouldn't use external hardrives. Maybe not on the go. I doubt Switch will not have features that Wii U had, especially with nvidia in charge of the hardware and operating system. Old rumors had that NX could connect with practically anything.

The n64 controller is underrated. I still have never enjoyed many ports as much. My only complaint is the joystick, which suffered easy wear(but was easily fixable by taking it apart, dumping out the dust and scum and putting it back together) If you play a 3d game, hold the game by the middle prong, if you play a 2d game hold the controller by the left prong. The controller was very ergonomic despite looking really weird.

Bethesda, Epic, EA, and Take 2 being on it are signs it should have some pretty decent 3rd party support. Epic being on it, and it being more modern means Unreal 4 runs on it. Unreal 4 actually ran on Ouya, which was weaker than Wii U. Epic was just disinclined to make a wii u port. Switch is about 3 Tegra generations above Ouya.

Take-Two President Karl Slatoff  said  "The folks at Nintendo are making a great effort to support third-party developers, we're very optimistic on the Switch though we are not announcing anything specific today"

Jen-Hsun Huang, President of nvidia says making ports will be "simple" because "all of these architectures are common in the sense that they all use modern GPUs, they all use programmable shading, and they all have basically similar features" The biggest problem developers had with Wii U was that it was considerably weaker than PS4 and xbox one, and they would likely have to change the game to add touch screen features. This time there is far less resistance. Also, does anybody remember AMD doing much to promote a Nintendo platform since the Gamecube days?  I don't and I think nvidia gave Nintendo a sweetheart deal to get ahead.

Read this article
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonevangelho/2015/03/04/theres-one-big-thing-preventing-nvidias-shield-console-from-greatness/#38e328317222

A big problem listed in this article was that Shield lacked first exclusives. 2 years later, we'll have an improved Shield re branded as Nintendo console with exclusive Legend of Zelda

its prophetic.


Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Soren on December 05, 2016, 10:50:35 PM
I think all those words sound nice, but I don't begrudge anyone for taking the "I'll believe it when I see it" stance. Words from 3rd parties really don't mean much at this stage. I also want to see Nintendo take active support in making western engines like Unreal work on Switch.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: supermario2k on December 05, 2016, 11:30:55 PM
Well to Soren's credit I do have old magazines listing developers and games that NEVER did **** on the Game Cube so yeah skepticism is warranted but I think optimism is jusfied this time.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Oedo on December 06, 2016, 05:09:27 PM
If Switch can deliver a true portable gaming experience (or ends up being able to deliver one with a revision) and becomes the new home for 3DS heavy-hitters like Monster Hunter and Pokemon, it's a reasonably safe bet to hit 15 million units sold in Japan alone. Nintendo lost a lot of gamers with the jump from DS to 3DS in all of its major markets, but they did manage to keep the majority of them in Japan (about 65% based on the lifetime sales numbers of both systems). I think whatever significant damage mobile gaming was going to do to portable gaming on dedicated game systems has already been done in most parts of the world and Japan already saw much less of an impact with this generation.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on December 07, 2016, 04:46:54 AM
If Switch can deliver a true portable gaming experience (or ends up being able to deliver one with a revision) and becomes the new home for 3DS heavy-hitters like Monster Hunter and Pokemon, it's a reasonably safe bet to hit 15 million units sold in Japan alone. Nintendo lost a lot of gamers with the jump from DS to 3DS in all of its major markets, but they did manage to keep the majority of them in Japan (about 65% based on the lifetime sales numbers of both systems). I think whatever significant damage mobile gaming was going to do to portable gaming on dedicated game systems has already been done in most parts of the world and Japan already saw much less of an impact with this generation.


Anyone who listens to the Famicast will tell you that portable gaming is now dominated by phones in Japan. That is not a trend that is going to be reversed anytime soon. The Switch has two major problems, the battery and the fact it's six times the size of a mobile phone. This console will not replace the mobile phone for the vast majority of commuters. There is, however, huge potential for Nintendo franchises to do very well on phones and that is where the future of Nintendo portable gaming lies. It's just going to take another generation for Nintendo to realise this.


 
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on December 07, 2016, 07:03:46 AM
Who takes 4-5 hours to commute?

If I'm moving I'll probably go past 300 outlets in4-5 hours. Malls, Airports, and bus stations even have charging spots now.

(http://i.imgur.com/CbgbFDP.jpg)
(http://f2d62a308d3c313ac136-fe453cfe00977a743e98d480a2f68fee.r14.cf1.rackcdn.com/adv/sponsorship-opportunities/charging-1.jpg)

I'm going to spend most of my time playing it docked, and if I'm out and about there is going to be an outlet to plug it into.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on December 07, 2016, 07:13:25 AM
Who takes 4-5 hours to commute?


Who suggested anyone takes 4-5 hours to commute?



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on December 07, 2016, 07:22:34 AM
The battery supposedly has a life of 4-5 hours. Complaining about not having the battery last, and how that will ruin it as a system for commuters suggests that people need to have it for 4-5 hours for commuting.

(https://i1.wp.com/nintendotimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/3DSXLvsSwitch.jpg?fit=273%2C300)

(http://cdn.idigitaltimes.com/sites/idigitaltimes.com/files/styles/image_embed/public/2015/01/30/new-3ds-vs-iphone.jpg)

(https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/s-LJweQsNPjE-8p2GcrPoa44jdk=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/693932/iphone6vita.0.JPG)

(https://i.redd.it/jcr5n7f55aux.png)
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on December 07, 2016, 07:52:27 AM
It suggests the thing constantly needs charging, which is an added hassle. Here's the Switch on the go, remember to charge it, put it in its protective case so it doesn't get scratched put the case in a bag because it's too big to go in a pocket. OK, now on the bus, unzip your bag, reach in and take your Switch case out, now take out the Switch and boot it up, great, now I can sit and play on this thing that's the size of a box of chocolates for 15 minutes until it's my stop, then put it back in its case, put that back in my bag and off I go, simple! ... OR, OR, check this out, I just reach into my pocket pull out my phone, [tap, tap], i'm playing a game, here's my stop? [tap], it's back in my pocket.


You are living in a fantasy world if you think people are going to choose the Switch over a phone to game on the go.



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: rygar on December 07, 2016, 08:05:34 AM
Finding an outlet in densely populated northeast cities isn't easy (especially if you aren't purchasing something) and it's also an area where commuting could be affected by battery life. It doesn't take much to wrack up an hour or more each way on public transit between waiting and actual travel. If the Switch battery also precipitously loses its charge when not in use like the 3DS battery, you could run into a problem on the way home. Many people work in professions in which adult video gaming is looked down upon, or in communal locations without plugs for employee use, or insecure environments, or with employers who don't allow electronic devices, or are frequently out in the field during the work day, etc., so workday re-charging is legitimately not an option for many people.

I frankly don't know enough about the industry to know if the 4-5 hour battery life will impact the success of the device but I do think it will impact a broad class of consumers. However, since the problem already exists for many of these same people, they probably already have portable power banks. I typically carry separate banks for my phone and 3DS. They may need to upgrade their banks though. I was able to get away with dollar store ones until I got the 6+ and 3DS.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: rygar on December 07, 2016, 08:11:53 AM
It suggests the thing constantly needs charging, which is an added hassle. Here's the Switch on the go, remember to charge it, put it in its protective case so it doesn't get scratched put the case in a bag because it's too big to go in a pocket. OK, now on the bus, unzip your bag, reach in and take your Switch case out, now take out the Switch and boot it up, great, now I can sit and play on this thing that's the size of a box of chocolates for 15 minutes until it's my stop, then put it back in its case, put that back in my bag and off I go, simple! ... OR, OR, check this out, I just reach into my pocket pull out my phone, [tap, tap], i'm playing a game, here's my stop? [tap], it's back in my pocket.


You are living in a fantasy world if you think people are going to choose the Switch over a phone to game on the go.

For me it would depend on the length of the trip and whether I had a seat. You are probably correct about a lot of environments, but in others, like waiting at a station, Amtrak, or on a bus with front facing seats, whipping out the Switch should be as easy as using a tablet.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Stogi on December 07, 2016, 01:39:03 PM
It suggests the thing constantly needs charging, which is an added hassle. Here's the Switch on the go, remember to charge it, put it in its protective case so it doesn't get scratched put the case in a bag because it's too big to go in a pocket. OK, now on the bus, unzip your bag, reach in and take your Switch case out, now take out the Switch and boot it up, great, now I can sit and play on this thing that's the size of a box of chocolates for 15 minutes until it's my stop, then put it back in its case, put that back in my bag and off I go, simple! ... OR, OR, check this out, I just reach into my pocket pull out my phone, [tap, tap], i'm playing a game, here's my stop? [tap], it's back in my pocket.


You are living in a fantasy world if you think people are going to choose the Switch over a phone to game on the go.

I know what you're saying, but 15 minutes is a decent chunk of time. It's damn near a full episode of Seinfeld. Furthermore, would you not play while waiting for the bus?

I commute with the metro and it takes roughly 30 minutes to get into the city. Playing a Switch would be a significant time-waster.

Still, I get your point. It's not as portable as a 3DS or your phone. However, I think people will understand that despite  it being a bit cumbersome, it solves two problems at once.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on December 08, 2016, 07:10:34 AM
It suggests the thing constantly needs charging, which is an added hassle. Here's the Switch on the go, remember to charge it, put it in its protective case so it doesn't get scratched put the case in a bag because it's too big to go in a pocket. OK, now on the bus, unzip your bag, reach in and take your Switch case out, now take out the Switch and boot it up, great, now I can sit and play on this thing that's the size of a box of chocolates for 15 minutes until it's my stop, then put it back in its case, put that back in my bag and off I go, simple! ... OR, OR, check this out, I just reach into my pocket pull out my phone, [tap, tap], i'm playing a game, here's my stop? [tap], it's back in my pocket.


You are living in a fantasy world if you think people are going to choose the Switch over a phone to game on the go.





If the game is really compelling, you wouldn't bother with the phone game. I had a game gear, which had the SHORTEST battery life. It was also cumbersome, but I carried a back pack. I used to carry it around everywhere and play strategy RPGs. It was great to have on vacation. If you get 4-5 hours then you're not going to worry about your battery being drained in the middle of play. Most game sections are not that long. As I was saying, there will be outlets, but you probably wouldn't rely on them. The only way you're going to have a problem with the battery is if you're homeless.

Also,I have a tablet that is the exact same dimensions as the switch tablet. It fits in my pocket. Note: I don't wear skinny jeans. I have room in my pockets for a phone, a wallet, keys, a ds, a tablet, a bunch of old receipts, movie tickets, and change. I also have room for jewels.

(http://www.staples-3p.com/s7/is/image/Staples/s1026046_sc7?$splssku$)
Also, unzipping the front pocket of this is not hard. You don't need a case.  But you could also fit it in the pocket too if you wanted one. Do you put your phone in a case before you put it in your pants pocket? No. IS that even an issue when you can get a screen protector? No.

With n64 and game cube I used to lug that over to friends houses. Now we have advanced consoles we can take anywhere. We can play online, or if I'm at a party we can play locally. I think people are underestimating the multiplayer aspects of it too.

Well before Pokemon GO came out, when I was in college I used to take my original DS around with me. If I saw someone with a DS we'd play Mario Kart. If It was lunchtime or during my breaks I'd connect to the wifi and play online. The DS came out in 2004. iPhone's were not out until 2007. When the DS came out the only things using Wifi was laptops and DS. Thinking about it. Mario Kart Switch is going to be GIGANTIC. Even if someone doesn't have a switch they can still play. That's nuts. Splatoon and Smash bros will be big too.

During Star Wars Revenge of the Sith, when I was waiting in line and then waiting (like 45minutes) for the movie to start once I was seated, we played Pictochat and Mario 64 with some strangers.

I predict one of the reasons Breath of the Wild took so long, and Switch took so long is because Nintendo employees were goofing around and playing multi-player switch games. I'm thinking about it. This might be the next Goldeneye for multiplayer.

Can you imagine if the systems came with Mario Kart?

We're all worried about Nintendo making us buy Mario Kart all over again, but what if that game was the pack in? That would automatically sell Switches. Someone comes around to a party, plops their switch down on a table "hey you want to play switch?" "sure" boots up mario kart 2player mode. Fun is had. "I want one"
Person buys one. You guys play again. But this time you got your own screens. Still 2 more people want to play.The cycle continues. You got 12 people playing.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: supermario2k on December 08, 2016, 10:57:39 AM
To be fair, the same people who play games on their cell phone are NOT the same people who would buy a DS or a GBA anyways. I mean they just aren't.
It like how the people who do all their TV on Netflix aren't buying Blu Ray discs. It's two different types of consumers.
But kids drive the market, 3DS was priced a little high but it still sold well to kids and families would love to have more gaming options that keep the TV free and ways to spend time together. This will be huge based on that aspect alone. All that takes is the right price and the right game.
Playstation is entirely different it's billed as an ultimate gamer machine, it does everything a hard core gamer wants and any casuals that pick it up are just icing to Sony. Same for Xbox. Nintendo caters to a different market and Switch looks like it can really cater well to their largest userbase and still appeal to the ultra hard cores who have to own everything and those that like Nintendo but want more than just a handful of games.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Kairon on December 08, 2016, 05:09:26 PM
It suggests the thing constantly needs charging, which is an added hassle. Here's the Switch on the go, remember to charge it, put it in its protective case so it doesn't get scratched put the case in a bag because it's too big to go in a pocket. OK, now on the bus, unzip your bag, reach in and take your Switch case out, now take out the Switch and boot it up, great, now I can sit and play on this thing that's the size of a box of chocolates for 15 minutes until it's my stop, then put it back in its case, put that back in my bag and off I go, simple! ... OR, OR, check this out, I just reach into my pocket pull out my phone, [tap, tap], i'm playing a game, here's my stop? [tap], it's back in my pocket.


You are living in a fantasy world if you think people are going to choose the Switch over a phone to game on the go.





If the game is really compelling, you wouldn't bother with the phone game. I had a game gear, which had the SHORTEST battery life. It was also cumbersome, but I carried a back pack. I used to carry it around everywhere and play strategy RPGs. It was great to have on vacation. If you get 4-5 hours then you're not going to worry about your battery being drained in the middle of play. Most game sections are not that long. As I was saying, there will be outlets, but you probably wouldn't rely on them. The only way you're going to have a problem with the battery is if you're homeless.

Also,I have a tablet that is the exact same dimensions as the switch tablet. It fits in my pocket. Note: I don't wear skinny jeans. I have room in my pockets for a phone, a wallet, keys, a ds, a tablet, a bunch of old receipts, movie tickets, and change. I also have room for jewels.

(http://www.staples-3p.com/s7/is/image/Staples/s1026046_sc7?$splssku$)
Also, unzipping the front pocket of this is not hard. You don't need a case.  But you could also fit it in the pocket too if you wanted one. Do you put your phone in a case before you put it in your pants pocket? No. IS that even an issue when you can get a screen protector? No.

With n64 and game cube I used to lug that over to friends houses. Now we have advanced consoles we can take anywhere. We can play online, or if I'm at a party we can play locally. I think people are underestimating the multiplayer aspects of it too.

Well before Pokemon GO came out, when I was in college I used to take my original DS around with me. If I saw someone with a DS we'd play Mario Kart. If It was lunchtime or during my breaks I'd connect to the wifi and play online. The DS came out in 2004. iPhone's were not out until 2007. When the DS came out the only things using Wifi was laptops and DS. Thinking about it. Mario Kart Switch is going to be GIGANTIC. Even if someone doesn't have a switch they can still play. That's nuts. Splatoon and Smash bros will be big too.

During Star Wars Revenge of the Sith, when I was waiting in line and then waiting (like 45minutes) for the movie to start once I was seated, we played Pictochat and Mario 64 with some strangers.

I predict one of the reasons Breath of the Wild took so long, and Switch took so long is because Nintendo employees were goofing around and playing multi-player switch games. I'm thinking about it. This might be the next Goldeneye for multiplayer.

Can you imagine if the systems came with Mario Kart?

We're all worried about Nintendo making us buy Mario Kart all over again, but what if that game was the pack in? That would automatically sell Switches. Someone comes around to a party, plops their switch down on a table "hey you want to play switch?" "sure" boots up mario kart 2player mode. Fun is had. "I want one"
Person buys one. You guys play again. But this time you got your own screens. Still 2 more people want to play.The cycle continues. You got 12 people playing.

Geez, reading this got me all hypeHypeHYPE!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on December 08, 2016, 06:05:09 PM
To be fair, the same people who play games on their cell phone are NOT the same people who would buy a DS or a GBA anyways. I mean they just aren't.


The people who play games on their cell phones WERE the same people who would buy a DS or GBA. I remember how it would be common place to see a DS or a GBA on the tube, now dedicated consoles have been 99% replaced by phones.
This is quite a weird place to discuss this because it's such a pro-Nintendo echo chamber. It reminds of when Kimishima was interviewed by the Wall Street journal shortly after the Switch announcement. They asked him why he thought Nintendo's shares had dropped 8% following the reveal and he had no answer. He was genuinely baffled. These people really can't see the problems ahead and are doomed to make similar mistakes that they did with the Wii U. The future of mobile gaming IS mobile phones. If Nintendo wanted to do well in the mobile market they should release a bluetooth controller for $20 that holds the phone and distribute games that way. Yes they have to give a slice of the profits to Apple/Android but at least there's profits to share. This will not be a widely used portable gaming console, so what does that leave? An underpowered home console with added manufacturing costs and weak third party support. Wake up people! The breadcrumbs are so close together on this one, how can you not see the way this is going to go?

Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: King of Twitch on December 08, 2016, 06:59:47 PM

Stockholders know even less about video games than girl gamers. They only care about making money right this instant; the lack of price, launch titles, or release date could just as easily be attributed to the stock drop. However, aside from the Pokemon GO explosion in July, it's still the highest it's been in 6 years. Mobile games are for the toilet. Get N or get off the pot.
#LuigiDudeTruthBomb
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on December 08, 2016, 08:54:40 PM
Yes, your phone should be able to play good games. Unfortunately, phones can't do that, and we still live in a world where even PC users have to optimize their device to play games at their highest settings. This is the reason consoles still have a place in the market- the software developed on them SHOULD be optimized for the console. This is why emulators still have trouble playing certain games from the fifth generation.

On the other hand, however, the truly portable (or very old) consoles can be emulated on PC, because they were designed to be simplistic and single-purpose devices. Phones need to be able to do a number of things, and that's why it will be a while before mobile gaming encapsulates the entire gaming market. This is why, eventually, Nintendo will have to consider making a mobile device that plays their games if they want to keep their titles exclusive. What the Switch does, however, is two very important things- it will have a strong lineup of console-sized games that can be taken other places, and it also has the ability to have more than one person share in the gaming without owning the device.

The third thing that the Switch could do to massively increase its appeal is dock with other home devices universally. If I can take my Switch with Mario Kart or Smash over to my friend's house and he has the necessary controllers but not the game, we have effectively shared our library, since I can simply plug my Switch into his dock and play all my games.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Soren on December 08, 2016, 09:22:29 PM
The third thing that the Switch could do to massively increase its appeal is dock with other home devices universally. If I can take my Switch with Mario Kart or Smash over to my friend's house and he has the necessary controllers but not the game, we have effectively shared our library, since I can simply plug my Switch into his dock and play all my games.


That has been rumored and I hope it's true.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Luigi Dude on December 08, 2016, 10:36:27 PM

Stockholders know even less about video games than girl gamers. They only care about making money right this instant; the lack of price, launch titles, or release date could just as easily be attributed to the stock drop. However, aside from the Pokemon GO explosion in July, it's still the highest it's been in 6 years. Mobile games are for the toilet. Get N or get off the pot.
#LuigiDudeTruthBomb

(http://i.imgur.com/rbpQb3M.gif)
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: rygar on December 09, 2016, 12:25:45 AM
I just watched the Jimmy Fallon clip. My first impression is that it will be easier to use on the go than the 3DS. It looks like you will be able to tuck your elbows in while you are playing and rest your hands in your lap. The 3DS is much more comfortable to use with armrests.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ejamer on December 09, 2016, 08:21:29 AM
... The future of mobile gaming IS mobile phones. If Nintendo wanted to do well in the mobile market they should release a bluetooth controller for $20 that holds the phone and distribute games that way. Yes they have to give a slice of the profits to Apple/Android but at least there's profits to share. This will not be a widely used portable gaming console, so what does that leave? An underpowered home console with added manufacturing costs and weak third party support. Wake up people! The breadcrumbs are so close together on this one, how can you not see the way this is going to go?


Yes and no.


Gaming on mobile phones is still a very different landscape than dedicated gaming consoles.  The hardware is more expensive, offers less predictable performance for developers, and remains less kid-friendly.  The games have a huge, but mostly disengaged, potential audience who have been trained to pay extremely low prices for games - if they pay at all.  Your argument that Nintendo needs to move in that direction might be true, but the argument that they need to make the move now is (in my opinion) premature.


Nintendo is still sitting in a different niche, and I think they are comfortable with that choice at the moment - although there does seem to be shift coming in their approach.  It's hard to say how long they'll stay true to older ideas instead of looking to make a big switch in their business approach.  But for the short-term, dedicated gaming still makes sense: it's viable in the marketplace, and it's what their company has been built to do.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: supermario2k on December 09, 2016, 10:42:14 AM
To be fair, the same people who play games on their cell phone are NOT the same people who would buy a DS or a GBA anyways. I mean they just aren't.


The people who play games on their cell phones WERE the same people who would buy a DS or GBA. I remember how it would be common place to see a DS or a GBA on the tube, now dedicated consoles have been 99% replaced by phones.
This is quite a weird place to discuss this because it's such a pro-Nintendo echo chamber. It reminds of when Kimishima was interviewed by the Wall Street journal shortly after the Switch announcement. They asked him why he thought Nintendo's shares had dropped 8% following the reveal and he had no answer. He was genuinely baffled. These people really can't see the problems ahead and are doomed to make similar mistakes that they did with the Wii U. The future of mobile gaming IS mobile phones. If Nintendo wanted to do well in the mobile market they should release a bluetooth controller for $20 that holds the phone and distribute games that way. Yes they have to give a slice of the profits to Apple/Android but at least there's profits to share. This will not be a widely used portable gaming console, so what does that leave? An underpowered home console with added manufacturing costs and weak third party support. Wake up people! The breadcrumbs are so close together on this one, how can you not see the way this is going to go?


No this isn't a pro-Nintendo chamber as you call it, it's a place where people of all walks who happen to enjoy Nintendo discuss the happenings of Nintendo.

Dude if you think I am some blind Nintendo fanboy you haven't been reading my comments AT ALL or you are too new here to know me. First I am NOT a Nintendo fanboy, I am not even pro-Nintendo as you call it. And newsflash, I game on my cell phone *AND* I DO NOT OWN a Nintendo handheld.

There might have been some overlap, as in there were people who were casual gamers that picked up a dedicated machine for HANDFUL of games, when the price was right, to play on the go. Those were a NICHE, small numbers, they were not the massive number of dedicated fans who buy dedicated hardware.

Those people migrated to cell phones, sure, but they were NOT a significant portion of the market at all. Now you keep quoting some Japanese executive from Japan, first mistake, assuming America is the same as Japan.


Second mistake you keep assuming we are all die hard ultra pro-Nintendo when we certainly are not. I have gone on record countless times not just criticizing but openly stating I have disdain for the N64, the Wii, and the Wii U. I have gone on record to call the 3DS and over priced machine that does not justify it's own existence, countless times.

The Switch is not the 3DS! That is your second mistake. It is a new console that does both, appeals to both.


Now I won't dig deep into this again but you are flat wrong, FLAT WRONG, when you say the countless masses of casual gamers that game exclusively and casually, usually sticking to one or two very simple games like Tetris, Candy Crush, or something along those lines, are the SAME massive numbers of people that picked up the GBA and the DS. They were a sub-set of that market. You want proof, look at the 3DS, it is tracking slightly below the GBA, it's about 15 million behind it, GBA was sold both at a time when cell phone games didn't even exist or were expensive, BTW the N-Gage was around then and in direct competition with GBA so...

Next the DS, okay the DS picked up a lot of those people sure but so did the Wii. Now many of those people, which you lump into ONE large homogenous group which is also false, there are lots of subsets of the larger market, maybe take a class in marketing and learn a little about demographics and the like before you lump everyone into two camps, pro-Nintendo dedicated gamers and everyone else. Ass.


Then, well the Switch is NOT a portable device first. It is a dedicated gaming TABLET that you can hook into your TV or take on the go , it is literally the first of its kind. There have been other devices that were similar, tablets that could connect to a TV and use controllers but this is the FIRST DEDICATED gaming tablet to be marketed to the masses for gamers of all markets, casuals and dedicated.


Finally, if I am PRO-Switch it is because I am anti-Nintendo. The thing is such a balls ass perfect product it will attract everyone, mark my damn words. As the gamer on here that HATED the N64, the Wii, the Wii U and the 3DS I can assure you that if *I* and everyone i know that thinks like *I* do, mostly heavy leaning Playstion fans, are excited for this thing, bet your ASS everyone else will be too.

I could break it down by demographic and audience but I won't, I will just say your flat wrong of your assessment and quoting what goes on in Japan is pointless, I don't live in Japan I don't give a **** what goes on there and if this thing sells well there, which it WILL, and it sells well here which I assume it will, then its going to be big.

HOW big is the question.

I stand by my prediciton of 90 million, that is roughly the size of the Nintendo fanbase, the entire united fanbase that includes kids who want a cheap gaming machine, hardcore fans that love their franchises, casual that only want one or two games (M) who get everything else they want on Playstation or Xbox, the moms that ate up the Wii, because they game on tablets doesn;t mean they want to game on a tablet, again PC gaming was big when everyone had a PC in their house, it has shrunk in some ways because people do their computing on the tablet, those that used the PC as a gaming/media device, did so because they had no alternative, those days are gone, now only people gaming on a PC are die hard PC gamers, which consequetly still make up enough MONEY even if not numbers, to matter.


Which takes me to what does matter. Soccer moms who buy a tablet do so out of necessity, they need a portable device with access to facebook and email that they can browse the web, mostly shopping amazon, pay bills and netflix, those moms do game on the tablet, because it's convenient. But they have kids, kids that one to game on the tablet too, so what does the mom do, buys her kid a 3DS, that kid is going to now be getting a Switch in stead. Game set and match, The RAT because I don't need your damn facts or opinions to win arguments I just go by my own gut observations and thats just how I roll. SO have fun not playing Switch when everyone you know will have two.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on December 09, 2016, 12:56:24 PM
Well, I think that's a bit of an over exaggeration.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on December 09, 2016, 01:27:09 PM

Stockholders know even less about video games than girl gamers. They only care about making money right this instant; the lack of price, launch titles, or release date could just as easily be attributed to the stock drop. However, aside from the Pokemon GO explosion in July, it's still the highest it's been in 6 years. Mobile games are for the toilet. Get N or get off the pot.
#LuigiDudeTruthBomb

(http://i.imgur.com/rbpQb3M.gif)

I wish he'd stuck with the thumbs down. It would have been funnier. It surprised when he first came out with an immediate thumbs down but no sooner was my brain registering that Miyamoto was actually dissing Jimmy when he began turning it to thumbs up and then it clicked that it was all just a joke. But I liked that shock I had at first that Miyamoto meant business.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on December 09, 2016, 01:32:25 PM
Also, I find it funny how Reggie is taking center stage and talking to Jimmy. Miyamoto gets a big introduction and they let him have a moment and even play with the band while Bill Trinen who is also there gets no introduction and is only allowed to just sit in the audience to translate for Miyamoto. He really is the Donny of the group.

(http://i.imgur.com/NjPUA8x.gif)
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on December 09, 2016, 07:00:56 PM
The other thing about Bill is: Whenever corporate goes to visit he is the easiest one for them to talk to. They probably hang out with him.

Also, anyone who says this is a pro-nintendo echo chamber hasn't spent much time here on the off seasons. Many of us, are generally pretty pessimistic considering Nintendo's history. Myself, I'm more optimistic than usual, because I see for once they are doing a lot of things right. Nintendo does minor things completely wrong regularly, but it seems like they are on their A game.  Our resident pessimist Iansane is even more optimistic than normal. His big thing was Nintendo doing something really gimmicky that repels developers, but he saw this and was like "well, this is fairly practical". If Ian is optimistic, that's a good sign.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Spak-Spang on December 11, 2016, 08:50:54 PM
The problem with mobile gaming with cell phones is that you need dedicated buttons and control sticks with more complicated games.  The more accessible input mechanics (buttons analog stick shoulder buttons) the more interesting games you can create.  But nobody wants that for their phone.  As an add on you can not design games expecting people to have that.  Even in the somewhat close ecosystem of the apple tablets and phones you still have to prepare your game for maximum backwards compatibility.  Android market is even harder.

Computer gaming is getting more accessible but it still isn't as easy as console gaming.  Console gaming a standard is there and if you have the system you know you can play the game.  The Switch is a mobile console, but it is also a home console.  If you never want to use it as a mobile device you don't have to.  However, you do have that option.  Also you have a better version of off screen play for playing at home when you only have 1 TV...so really is almost optimal as a at home console than a to go portable. 

Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: rygar on December 11, 2016, 09:37:34 PM
I agree with much of your post, but I'm coming at it a little differently. I anticipate spending very little time using the Switch in TV mode, but since TV-only consoles aren't viable for me at any price, being able to occasionally play it on TV, and having that play already be optimized, is a big bonus. From what I've read/heard, it seems I already use my 3DS primarily like a WiiU gamepad anyway.

I concede that there are lots of on-the-go situations where I wouldnt use the Switch, but I also wouldn't use my 3DS either. However, as a consumer, mobile gaming to me includes things like hotel stays, overnights at friends/family, airports and waiting rooms, and other situations where phone/tablet gaming isn't sufficient to provide me with a rewarding experience. The Switch appears to be a massive upgrade on both phone and handheld gaming, so it has me getting excited about video games in a way I haven't been in at least ten years.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Mop it up on December 14, 2016, 07:29:42 PM
As the present time, it's hard for me to envision the Switch selling well. But there are too many unknowns to make a good prediction. It isn't just the games that will matter, but I think things like the price of games will determine how many 3DS owners buy into Switch, and things like its online features will determine how much of the PS4/XBONE crowd would be interested. Too little to go on right now.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on December 14, 2016, 09:55:43 PM
Yeah, they cannot expect handheld level sales if games remain at a 60 dollar price point. But I pointed this out a while ago and people were quick to point out the variable pricing of Wii U titles.


Also, I'm beginning to think Miyamoto is, in fact, a hater.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on December 14, 2016, 10:04:52 PM
With very few exceptions, anytime someone starts a sentence with "I'm not a *blank*, but..." that person is most definitely a *blank*.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: nickmitch on December 14, 2016, 10:09:30 PM
With very few exceptions, anytime someone starts a sentence with "I'm not a *blank*, but..." that person is most definitely a *blank*.

It's like Red Delicious Apples.  If they were really delicious, they wouldn't be the ones who have to tell you.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: supermario2k on December 16, 2016, 11:00:36 AM
Well, I think that's a bit of an over exaggeration.


That was the point. I was replying with his absurd claims with my own absurd claims. Get with the program man damn. I guess ppl think wall of text means meltdown. Nice good to know.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 13, 2017, 12:49:23 AM
For what it's worth, I really didn't want to be right on this one, but let's face it, baring some radical changes, this thing is dead on arrival. I'll still be pre-ordering one, but so far, everything is right on track as I predicted...
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 13, 2017, 12:53:00 AM
With very few exceptions, anytime someone starts a sentence with "I'm not a *blank*, but..." that person is most definitely a *blank*.


Ya, I'm one of those haters that literally owns a copy of every game Nintendo has published in Europe, a 64DD, a Satellaview and a whole bunch of other random Nintendo stuff. I just don't feel like I can really hate something unless I contribute thousands towards it.


Wake up! This isn't about "hating", it's about being able to decipher the obvious information in front of you.


Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Stogi on January 13, 2017, 12:56:56 AM
Walmart sold out of pre-orders.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 13, 2017, 01:01:14 AM
Walmart sold out of pre-orders.


Walmart sold 2000 Switch units? Rejoice! I was wrong!



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ShyGuy on January 13, 2017, 01:02:46 AM
I got mine at BestBuy
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 19, 2017, 08:25:40 AM
OK, so I came out and (let's be honest, probably correctly) predicted the Nintendo Switch would not be a success. Many of you were quick to suggest I was wrong. Serious question, since the January 13th reveal and subsequent reaction, how many of you have now reevaluated your opinion and are starting to see sense?



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on January 19, 2017, 08:38:25 AM
What a classy, non-condescending way to phrase that question.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: lolmonade on January 19, 2017, 09:20:15 AM
OK, so I came out and (let's be honest, probably correctly) predicted the Nintendo Switch would not be a success. Many of you were quick to suggest I was wrong. Serious question, since the January 13th reveal and subsequent reaction, how many of you have now reevaluated your opinion and are starting to see sense?


Depends on how you measure success, and I think "success" for Nintendo's sake is going to be selling out day 1 and continuing to sell through the stock they have on shelves throughout the year.  If that's the measure, I think it's premature to say anything about the Switch's "success".


If "Success" is "this system is what you're saying you want it to be, then that's a different measure.  I'd also say I don't ever remember a system launch that had a breadth of awesome games and fully featured out the gate.  There's some concerning news in some cases (peripheral pricing), or lack of info (online services), but I think if you're looking for Nintendo's games and like what they offer, there's plenty to look forward to in the Switch, especially since they went ahead and announced ANOTHER game for 2018 in the Fire Emblem series.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: nickmitch on January 19, 2017, 05:28:15 PM
I feel like I love the system, but hate so many of the things about it.  I'm worried Nintendo's obvious missteps will bite them.  I don't see them grabbing PS4/XB1 owners.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 19, 2017, 05:36:12 PM
What a classy, non-condescending way to phrase that question.


What a totally not-at-all passive-aggressive way of avoiding said question.



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 19, 2017, 05:44:31 PM

Depends on how you measure success, and I think "success" for Nintendo's sake is going to be selling out day 1 and continuing to sell through the stock they have on shelves throughout the year.




I think Nintendo will definitely sell through their launch allotment (2 million) by the end of March, but I also think a year later in March 2018 Nintendo will be lucky if they're at 5 million.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on January 19, 2017, 07:39:44 PM
OK, so I came out and (let's be honest, probably correctly) predicted the Nintendo Switch would not be a success. Many of you were quick to suggest I was wrong. Serious question, since the January 13th reveal and subsequent reaction, how many of you have now reevaluated your opinion and are starting to see sense?

Honestly, I'm more of the mind that your prediction will end up being incorrect as we near the beginning of the Switch era. A lot of people are down on the Switch right now because there was some point they didn't like in the presentation. Whether it was the cost, the news of paying for online, the amount of games shown or a game reveal they didn't care for, it just seems there was something to be disappointed about. At the same time, there was also stuff to like and be interested in. What I'm seeing more and more as we move on from the presentation is caution. Because there are a lot of things that still interest people about the system, (and its portability still seems to be one of the biggest draws for many) I do think more people are willing to give it a chance. It just has to overcome a factor for each customer whether it be something like price or more game announcements.

The AV Club had a write-up on the Switch I was reading the other day and you can see this attitude in the write-up and comments below (http://www.avclub.com/article/nintendos-new-controllers-make-switch-versatile-vi-248556). The reviewer found a lot to like and a lot that interested him about the system while there were still a couple things he was also wary about. It was interesting to read the comments after though. Even though you get a few of the usual comments like people wishing Nintendo would go third party so they could just play everything on their PS4 or wanting to release a console in similar specs to the competition, there are a lot of people who talk about being interested in the Switch for some reason or other whether it be the games, portability or the controllers. It's interesting to see other people's comments outside of these forums which can be a bit of an echo chamber sometimes.

Heck, I've got a friend who's never been much of a Nintendo fan or gamer. He's stuck with Sony systems for some time. Was an early adopter of the PSP and critical of the DS in its early lifespan. Kind of also a Sega fan too. I sent him an e-mail asking if he was excited about the Switch presentation. Of course, he didn't really know about it going on. Anyways, we talked a bit after the presentation and he ended up watching it a day later and wrote back saying "I must say I haven't been this excited for a Nintendo release before...assuming I can afford it, it'll be a day 1 purchase (hooray no region lock!)." His exact words which really surprised me.

So, yes, there might be some growing pains at first with the Switch but as more games come out for it and/or the price does get lowered a bit, I can see sales for it really taking off or at least it selling at higher rate than the Wii U or GameCube even. Of course, there is the chance of outside factors affecting things like possible trade agreements changing the cost and distribution of things but I'm not interested in steering the conversation into political waters so that's all I will mention on that. The point being that if outside factors stay as is then I do think Nintendo can win over more consumers as time goes by unlike with the Wii U where they just couldn't change the negative perception. There may be some negativity with the Switch right now but at least there is a lot of positivity with it too that can yet be tapped into which didn't exist with the Wii U.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: pokepal148 on January 19, 2017, 09:20:11 PM
When I went to Gamestop to get a used DSi XL two different customers came in after me and both asked the clerk about the Switch while I was checking their used DS games. One of them even asked about pre-ordering.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Agent-X- on January 19, 2017, 10:14:20 PM
I can see this system having legs. For as many details as I hate, there are a surprising number of people who want to play home console games anywhere.


I'll make a bold prediction. Switch + Pokemon = Switch is the #1 selling home console for the year.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 20, 2017, 12:31:32 AM
Over the past few days I've been re-evaluating. The last presentation had problems. We still only have rumored specs. I had made the comment that it would be bad if Nintendo sacrificed valuable RAM for stupid haptic feedback.

But If I were to predict how the Switch will do based on it's positioning. I think Japanese third parties will flock to it. Western Third Parties will be Wary. Indies will love it.

Big Third Parties will have financial problems in the future. We'll see some big companies fall. Nintendo will be in the position to stay afloat. I predict our usual  4-5 year console cycle will come to an end.

In  1.5 years switch is going to look really good. In 3 years the Switch Deluxe is going to look better. Right now the failure of the Wii U has put Nintendo in a good position. They have an amazing library of games to rely on that can make the Switch appealing.

There were two threads this week noticing how strong the fantasy and rpg line up is for the switch. That could be the start. I think with what is coming out with Mario and Zelda in year one we might have that solid game release pipeline we have been waiting for.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Luigi Dude on January 20, 2017, 01:11:24 AM
To me the Switch early success will depend entirely on how well Nintendo markets Zelda.  Seriously, this was the reaction to Breath of the Wild at E3.




Starting in February, Nintendo needs to go all out in advertising this game.  Gets ads out everywhere so people are being exposed to several Zelda commercials everyday.  Also try to give as many publications and videogame reviewers early copies of the game as possible that can hopefully declare it the genre revolutionizing experience before launch that it could be.  If they can repeat the same kind of excitement the game got at E3 on a worldwide scale, this could be huge.

A 200+ hour open open world revolution experience will be much easier to convince people to spend over $300 to buy then a 20+ hour 2D platformer that had a similar experience released just 3 months earlier. 
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: crashnnburn on January 20, 2017, 10:42:52 AM
I think the Switch has the potential to be a success. Yes 'the kids' have tablets now and can play cheap video games etc. But when 2 kids take their Switches to school, and play it at lunch time or after school other kids will watch. And if you're 14 and see two kids playing console quality on what looks like an IPad, you ask "hey what app is that?, can i play with you guys?" And they'll laugh and say "no, you need a Switch to play, 8 of us can play Bomberman together! you should get one!". Now think of this happening all over the world.

Trust me it has extremely great potential to catch on like fire and I think that is all Nintendo needs. No marketing will be better than word of mouth. Until now, i'm not sure you can't really play anything on an IPad with that quality of graphics and simultaneous online. Once you get third party support, there's nothing stopping this from going viral. If you get a shitty Call of Duty port, done deal. The question is, can the Switch handle 3rd party games at a steady framerate.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: DonkeyBilly Kong on January 20, 2017, 01:52:16 PM
Reading your comments about people who aren't into videogames or Nintendo devices wanting the Switch reminds me of the Wii.  I was also thinking about pricing with the Wii, and how common thinking before the price reveal was that it would be $199 maximum because of the technology involved.  But, Nintendo hit just the right price point.  Maybe their market research is again correct, even if the pricing of the 3DS and Wii U were mistakes.

The main difference is that the Wii had a game to evangelize people bundled in in the United States.  Mario Kart and Minecraft would make nice games for that, and maybe enough people will buy them for it to work.  An issue might be core Nintendo fans buying it and only Zelda for a while.

The biggest strength of the Switch is that it is a portable.  Its downfall might be that it is marketed as a console.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 21, 2017, 11:36:06 AM
I was also thinking about pricing with the Wii, and how common thinking before the price reveal was that it would be $199 maximum because of the technology involved.  But, Nintendo hit just the right price point.  Maybe their market research is again correct, even if the pricing of the 3DS and Wii U were mistakes.



I think that Nintendo ended up regretting the low Wii launch price. Knowing what an evidently greedy company they are, I bet they wished they raised the Wii price by at least $50 at launch, failing to take into account that it was precisely the low price point that helped sell the console. This is probably why the 3DS and Wii U were so overly priced at launch.


I had no idea what the price would be when I predicted the demise of the Switch back in December, but I assumed $250 at the most. The $300 price tag only cements the console's doom. I can't feel too bad for Nintendo though, because all of this was entirely avoidable. You would think that a multi-billion dollar company would employ some people with a bit of basic common sense at the top.

Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 21, 2017, 12:35:49 PM
Peter Main years ago said Nintendo would only sell consoles at a mass market retail price. At the time it was 199.99. He made this assertion around the transition from n64 to Gamecube. I predicted the price at $299.99. This is based on inflation. If you go through the prices. They are pretty consistent.

http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/news/5963/the-big-ns-official-word-on-prices
http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/guide/1787/gamecube-faq-release-date-n-pricing-information
Howard Lincoln echoing.

There is this article, but I think I remember reading one where he was responding to Dreamcasts pricing.

When we look at price we can see that unlike the Wii U, most likely Switch's price will go down as time goes on. Also, game prices will get cheaper.  2 years from now a $99 switch is going to be really appealing.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 21, 2017, 01:34:15 PM


When we look at price we can see that unlike the Wii U, most likely Switch's price will go down as time goes on. Also, game prices will get cheaper.  2 years from now a $99 switch is going to be really appealing.


I think the Switch will have the exact same problem as the Wii U, in that the elaborate hardware makes it very difficult to significantly bring the price down even over many years. It's one thing for chips to get easier/cheaper to produce but when you start factoring in touch screens and what-not it becomes a lot harder.


You can take it to the bank that Nintendo's next "console" will be a glorified dongle that plays all Nintendo games and offers mass media and retails for $99.99. And guess what? It'll be another 100 million seller. Nintendo's just going to make some costly mistakes before they realise what makes money and what doesn't. But you'll have it by 2020. It's so obvious even Nintendo can't avoid it. Oh and just to repeat, the future of Nintendo portable gaming lies in an iOS/Android suite with optional bluetooth controls. Why spend hundreds of millions on R&D only to produce a product that is inferior to what is already available?



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on January 21, 2017, 01:44:56 PM
So Miyamoto is, in fact, a hater.

Syrenne mentioned on RFN that the materials in the Switch are a lot more likely to become less expensive, whereas the Wii U tech was never profitable for Nintendo.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: pokepal148 on January 21, 2017, 02:16:30 PM
But he's not a hater, it says so on the thread title.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: MagicCow64 on January 21, 2017, 02:35:50 PM
Knowing what an evidently greedy company they are


Other pessimism-preening aside, this sentiment never fails to inspire awe at how some people manage to view to world. Calling a company greedy is like calling a priest religious.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 21, 2017, 02:44:54 PM
Syrenne mentioned on RFN that the materials in the Switch are a lot more likely to become less expensive, whereas the Wii U tech was never profitable for Nintendo.


This is entirely conjecture/wishful thinking. What makes the components of the Switch any more likely to become less expensive than those of the Wii u?



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 21, 2017, 02:48:25 PM
Knowing what an evidently greedy company they are


Other pessimism-preening aside, this sentiment never fails to inspire awe at how some people manage to view to world. Calling a company greedy is like calling a priest religious.


And yet Steam, Microsoft and Sony all manage to thrive and far exceed Nintendo when it comes to turning a profit precisely because they are not greedy. There is nothing naive in thinking companies should treat their customers fairly and offer them great value for money. It's what sells products.


 
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on January 21, 2017, 03:05:43 PM
If you're trying to argue Nintendo's greedy and Sony and Microsoft aren't then you are most definitely a hater, or at least not paying attention to what they do.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on January 21, 2017, 03:06:27 PM
Considering she's a developer with hands on the actual tech, I'd say she has a more informed opinion of the hardware than you. But if you'd like to continue being jaded, by all means, do so.

I'd check those facts about Microsoft and Sony, too. They are companies that don't exclusively deal in video games.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 21, 2017, 03:09:18 PM
If you're trying to argue Nintendo's greedy and Sony and Microsoft aren't then you are most definitely a hater, or at least not paying attention to what they do.


How about this for a simple comparison, google the Playstation winter sale, then google the Xbox winter sale, then google the Nintendo winter sale. Have a good look at them and see if you can spot the odd one out. Or better yet, take a $100 and see how far that could get you on the PSN store, Xbox store and the eshop. Again, see if you can spot the odd one out.


Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: nickmitch on January 21, 2017, 03:10:40 PM
Both the Xbox and PlayStation brands weren't doing so hot until recently.  Famously, the Xbox division lost $3B in it's first 10 years.  But the PS4 has been elevating Sony lately.  The thing to remember is that while MS and Sony can afford losses on gaming hardware, this is only because videogames aren't their only revenue stream.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 21, 2017, 03:14:58 PM
Considering she's a developer with hands on the actual tech, I'd say she has a more informed opinion of the hardware than you.



Being a developer really doesn't qualify her to speculate on specific hardware component costs. I doubt Nintendo sat her down and carefully went through the details of individual deals and patent licenses that have been set up for the various bits of hardware in the device. You only have to look at the thing to see it's going to be a real struggle to really bring the price down even over a few years.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Soren on January 21, 2017, 03:22:25 PM
Guys c'mon. The Switch ain't dropping to $99 on 2019.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: pokepal148 on January 21, 2017, 06:10:32 PM
Hey, remember when Nintendo required you to pay $60 a year for their online service just to watch your $9 a month Netflix subscription on your Xbox 360? That was horrible. #NotAHater
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 21, 2017, 06:34:46 PM
Hey, remember when Nintendo required you to pay $60 a year for their online service just to watch your $9 a month Netflix subscription on your Xbox 360? That was horrible.


No I don't remember when they did that, also I think you did get a few other perks for your $60 annual fee other than the privilege of accessing Netflix. Now that I think about it, I do remember Nintendo charging me "500 Wii Points" to download a web browser though. Oh, and compared to the plethora of free games that Sony and Microsoft offer for subscribers,  Nintendo's paltry one NES or SNES game a month is beyond tightfisted. Yet another example (if one were needed) of how Nintendo operates when compared with Microsoft and Sony.
Does it still count as "hating" when I offer well-reasoned arguments for my opinions?
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on January 21, 2017, 07:05:17 PM
It's hating if you focus on Nintendo doing things like that and ignore Sony and Microsoft doing similar things, regardless of how well-reasoned you think your arguments are. You are beyond delusional if you think Sony or Microsoft or basically anybody else in this industry are somehow less "greedy" than Nintendo.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 21, 2017, 07:21:08 PM
It's hating if you focus on Nintendo doing things like that and ignore Sony and Microsoft doing similar things, regardless of how well-reasoned you think your arguments are. You are beyond delusional if you think Sony or Microsoft or basically anybody else in this industry are somehow less "greedy" than Nintendo.


I focus on Nintendo because this is a Nintendo forum and I love them and want them to be better. To suggest that Nintendo are no worse than Microsoft or Sony is just factually incorrect and I would suggest it is you who are delusional if you think otherwise. We could argue the point or you could use Amazon/Google to educate yourself.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on January 21, 2017, 07:30:28 PM
I own all the current platforms and am exclusively digital on all of them. I've spent plenty of time on their various digital storefronts. I really don't see a substantial difference between how Nintendo does things and how Sony or Microsoft do. So since you're the one making the claim, I'm going to have to ask you to provide specific examples of what you find to be the problem. Telling someone to Google it is a shitty way to debate.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 21, 2017, 07:44:08 PM
I own all the current platforms and am exclusively digital on all of them. I've spent plenty of time on their various digital storefronts. I really don't see a substantial difference between how Nintendo does things and how Sony or Microsoft do.


I find this quite baffling. I too own all three platforms and purchase mainly digital. The prices on Live and PSN are generally equally competitive but there is no parity with Nintendo. I find it strange that anyone would have difficulty noticing that. With Nintendo, first party games rarely go on sale and when they do the discount is minimal. Also with Nintendo, games will stay at launch RRP for years after release, something that seldom happens with Microsoft or Sony. Also, Microsoft and Sony are constantly having amazing sales (I've literally got nearly 300 games on my 360 HDD) compared with eshop discounts on shovelware that nobody wants even if it is cheap. Honestly, to spend just 15 minutes looking through each service and to come to the conclusion that they are all equal is just ludicrous, outside of these boards you would struggle to find anyone to agree with that. But then you probably think that borrowing a NES rom for a month is equal to having 4 full recent games that you can play whenever you want, so why am I even bothering?
 
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 21, 2017, 08:01:48 PM
According to insanolord these things are, well, y'know, more or less the same:


Xbox winter sale:
https://majornelson.com/2016/12/22/the-official-list-of-deals-on-xbox-stores-countdown-to-2017/ (https://majornelson.com/2016/12/22/the-official-list-of-deals-on-xbox-stores-countdown-to-2017/)


Playstation winter sale:
https://blog.eu.playstation.com/2016/12/22/the-playstation-store-january-sale-starts-today-and-its-our-biggest-ever/ (https://blog.eu.playstation.com/2016/12/22/the-playstation-store-january-sale-starts-today-and-its-our-biggest-ever/)


Nintendo eshop winter sale:
https://www.nintendo.co.uk/News/2016/December/Nintendo-eShop-Sale-Happy-New-Year-Sale-1170230.html (https://www.nintendo.co.uk/News/2016/December/Nintendo-eShop-Sale-Happy-New-Year-Sale-1170230.html)



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on January 21, 2017, 08:17:10 PM
Nintendo first party games don't go on sale that often because they don't have to. Games don't go on sale out of the goodness of developers' hearts, they go on sale because they stop selling. That's not Nintendo being greedy, that's Nintendo being in a better market position. Other developers would keep things at full price if they still sold at that price. You'll notice that there are lots of sales on the eShop for third party games. But again, this illustrates the foolishness of using a term like "greedy" in this context. Nintendo, like Sony and Microsoft and whoever, prices games at what the market will bear (or at least attempt to do so). Nintendo's prices are higher because people are willing to pay them.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Stogi on January 21, 2017, 09:06:55 PM
Miyamoto, I think you're underestimating the Switch's potential to attract attention and instantly provide fun. The ability to play two players anywhere is an incredible idea. Because...

(http://www.densepixels.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/think-of-the-children1.jpg)

Kids may have cell phones these days, but can you imagine a couple buddies playing MarioKart in the cafeteria? You could easily see other kids fighting over who's next because everyone wants to play. And soon enough, it'll be on everyone's wish list.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: pokepal148 on January 21, 2017, 09:10:30 PM
But greed man! Better market position means you're in a position to be charitable!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: MagicCow64 on January 21, 2017, 10:14:26 PM
To be fair, Microsoft and Sony invited me to their birthday parties last year but Nintendo snubbed me.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: pokepal148 on January 21, 2017, 10:33:35 PM
Youch man. Nintendo is the worst. We should rename the site to "Sega World Report"
Title: Re: Not a hater but really delusional (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on January 21, 2017, 11:10:50 PM
You can take it to the bank that Nintendo's next "console" will be a glorified dongle that plays all Nintendo games and offers mass media and retails for $99.99.

And yet Steam, Microsoft and Sony all manage to thrive and far exceed Nintendo when it comes to turning a profit precisely because they are not greedy. There is nothing naive in thinking companies should treat their customers fairly and offer them great value for money. It's what sells products.

We could argue the point or you could use Amazon/Google to educate yourself.


(https://media.giphy.com/media/4SQMqhWzUA0Fi/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Agent-X- on January 21, 2017, 11:19:28 PM
Youch man. Nintendo is the worst. We should rename the site to "Sega World Report"


Or Nintendo Worst Report.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Agent-X- on January 21, 2017, 11:33:25 PM
Knowing what an evidently greedy company they are


Other pessimism-preening aside, this sentiment never fails to inspire awe at how some people manage to view to world. Calling a company greedy is like calling a priest religious.


And yet Steam, Microsoft and Sony all manage to thrive and far exceed Nintendo when it comes to turning a profit precisely because they are not greedy. There is nothing naive in thinking companies should treat their customers fairly and offer them great value for money. It's what sells products.


Do you have any idea how far off you are? Valve isn't even in the same ballpark with Nintendo. Last year alone, Nintendo's revenue, which was at a low point, was $4.46 billion. In Valve's best year (2014) they were at about $1.5 billion. I know you said profit, but they're nowhere even close.

As far as Sony and Microsoft are concerned, it's still not very comparable. The Sony Playstation division was at about $6.6 billion in hardware revenue -- so, even at the best of times they're a couple billion more than Nintendo but $10 billion less than during the Wii era?? That's funny. Do we even need to talk about Xbox? Everyone knows that any profit from that division is a bonus in Microsoft's eyes.

So you're simply wrong. Maybe use a little less Amazon and a little more Google for your figures.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on January 21, 2017, 11:40:54 PM
I was wondering when someone was going to bring up the Steam/Valve comparison. I thought I might have to do it but that would require some Googleing and I'm too busy putting out hot takes with my gut.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on January 22, 2017, 12:24:16 AM
This argument is deader than the Wii U!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Soren on January 22, 2017, 12:27:49 AM
But what about the Ouya?
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Agent-X- on January 22, 2017, 12:18:30 PM
I think I get the sentiment with regard to these other gaming platforms, as the argument makes a lot more sense when you keep the financials out of it. As platforms go, Steam, Xbox Live, and PSN likely do see a lot more business. My Steam library has more than 500 games in it, so it would seem that the platform must be raking in the dough. This is where Nintendo as the mountain has managed to flex their traditional values and have never been anywhere close to "going third party" because... even when they lose they still profit from the first day till the last. This is the key difference for Nintendo versus those other guys.


Of course, as hungry consumers we ought to prefer those other platforms. They're a much better deal for us. As I said, I've got over 500 games to play at my fingertips with Steam, but how much money did Valve and the developers make from my purchases? On a majority of these, I would imagine less than $0.25. I would put money on the table Nintendo made more money off of my game purchases for the Wii U than my entire Steam library.


I give you: Nintendominance.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 22, 2017, 02:37:41 PM


When we look at price we can see that unlike the Wii U, most likely Switch's price will go down as time goes on. Also, game prices will get cheaper.  2 years from now a $99 switch is going to be really appealing.


I think the Switch will have the exact same problem as the Wii U, in that the elaborate hardware makes it very difficult to significantly bring the price down even over many years. It's one thing for chips to get easier/cheaper to produce but when you start factoring in touch screens and what-not it becomes a lot harder.


You can take it to the bank that Nintendo's next "console" will be a glorified dongle that plays all Nintendo games and offers mass media and retails for $99.99. And guess what? It'll be another 100 million seller. Nintendo's just going to make some costly mistakes before they realise what makes money and what doesn't. But you'll have it by 2020. It's so obvious even Nintendo can't avoid it. Oh and just to repeat, the future of Nintendo portable gaming lies in an iOS/Android suite with optional bluetooth controls. Why spend hundreds of millions on R&D only to produce a product that is inferior to what is already available?





The Wii U and the Switch are different in terms of hardware. Wii U had far more custom stuff going on than the Switch does. Nintendo is able to lower the price on the DS line on a regular basis. The Wii U had a weird non standard resolution screen. The resolution was not a regular standard and was quite rare at the time. But capacitive touch 720p screens of it's size are much more common. Also, there is advantages with going the Tegra route. The chips are meant to be thrown in everything. nVidia puts these things in cars. Tegra chip manufacturing is going to keep things cheap.

Nintendo has said they were producing about 2 million consoles for launch. The pre-orders are already sold out. That means Switch has already done better than the Shield Line even before it was released.

So, in 2 years there is going to be a  portable console that is $150 to $99. It's going to be loaded with Nintendo games. It'll already be loaded with a bunch of RPG games from third parties. Virtual Console library will have tons of indy games, classic games from 8-bit to present. Any problems with storage will be solved by SDXC.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 22, 2017, 05:31:18 PM

I know you said profit...


Then why are you talking about anything else? Valve and Nintendo, although operating in a similar market are vastly different companies. One area where they do overlap is the digital distribution of games, so let's take a look at that shall we?


First of all, let's start with Steam. Valve are quite cagey on sales/revenue and being a private company, they are under no obligation to reveal exact sales figures/revenue/profit details (I would be very interested to read the article/press release that you site claiming that "in Valve's best year (2014) their revenue was 1.5 billion, please post a link), but Steam Spy puts the figure for 2015 at $3.5 billion.
http://gearnuke.com/steam-sales-2015-valve-generated-total-3-5-billion-paid-games/ (http://gearnuke.com/steam-sales-2015-valve-generated-total-3-5-billion-paid-games/)




Now let's take a look at Nintendo with regards to online distribution. according to this article from Nintendo Life, it states that in 2015 the Nintendo eshop generated a revenue of just over 3 Billion yen, or or $270 million
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2016/04/nintendos_eshop_revenues_hit_a_new_high_driven_by_dlc_and_generation_i_pokemon (http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2016/04/nintendos_eshop_revenues_hit_a_new_high_driven_by_dlc_and_generation_i_pokemon)


The article also states that 2016 was Nintendo's best year for online distribution but I don't have the Steam numbers for comparison.


So, going by 2015's numbers we have:


Steam revenue: $3.5 Billion
eShop revenue: $0.27 Billion


Also worth noticing is that some months on Steam eclipse the entire year of eShop. Also, GTA V alone accumulated half the revenue of the entire eShop.


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As far as Sony and Microsoft are concerned, it's still not very comparable.


I'll just leave this little doozy here for anyone who may have forgot, courtesy of Eurogamer and many other outlets:
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-04-28-sonys-psn-is-making-more-money-than-all-of-nintendo (http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-04-28-sonys-psn-is-making-more-money-than-all-of-nintendo)


Nintendo is a truly huge company and their revenue will reflect that, but good business management is what dictates profit... or lack thereof in Nintendo's case.



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 22, 2017, 05:44:14 PM

Nintendo first party games don't go on sale that often because they don't have to.
Neither do Sony or Microsoft. They do it because they like money.

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Games don't go on sale out of the goodness of developers' hearts, they go on sale because they stop selling. That's not Nintendo being greedy, that's Nintendo being in a better market position.
There are Nintendo games (Mario Kart, Splatoon, etc) that will sell incredibly well, and there are Nintendo games that will sell moderately/poorly. Nintendo could boost the sales of these games by lowering the price (like you suggest Sony and Microsoft do), but they choose not to. They would sooner sell a small number of units at a high price, than a larger number of units at a fairer one. sounds a bit like greed to me.

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Other developers would keep things at full price if they still sold at that price.

Another important factor that we need to add to this is the rate of sale. Steam, PSN and Live are willing to go lower year on year to reach the widest audience possible.


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You'll notice that there are lots of sales on the eShop for third party games.

]And they are noticeably less frequent and less favourable when compared with their PSN / Live equivalent.


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Nintendo's prices are higher because people are willing to pay them.
Some people. Look at Nintendo's software sales over the last 10 years. They've been a lot a better. Grease the wheels, incentivise your audience with  generous offers/sales. There's a reason why the competition does it, it works!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 22, 2017, 05:48:47 PM
Miyamoto, I think you're underestimating the Switch's potential to attract attention and instantly provide fun. The ability to play two players anywhere is an incredible idea. Because...

Kids may have cell phones these days, but can you imagine a couple buddies playing MarioKart in the cafeteria? You could easily see other kids fighting over who's next because everyone wants to play. And soon enough, it'll be on everyone's wish list.


Dude, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But that price point? Those games... that aren't there? Times have changed, playing habits have changed. I just can't see this thing catching on.

Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Agent-X- on January 22, 2017, 07:02:13 PM

I know you said profit...


Then why are you talking about anything else? Valve and Nintendo, although operating in a similar market are vastly different companies. One area where they do overlap is the digital distribution of games, so let's take a look at that shall we?


First of all, let's start with Steam. Valve are quite cagey on sales/revenue and being a private company, they are under no obligation to reveal exact sales figures/revenue/profit details (I would be very interested to read the article/press release that you site claiming that "in Valve's best year (2014) their revenue was 1.5 billion, please post a link), but Steam Spy puts the figure for 2015 at $3.5 billion.
http://gearnuke.com/steam-sales-2015-valve-generated-total-3-5-billion-paid-games/ (http://gearnuke.com/steam-sales-2015-valve-generated-total-3-5-billion-paid-games/)




Now let's take a look at Nintendo with regards to online distribution. according to this article from Nintendo Life, it states that in 2015 the Nintendo eshop generated a revenue of just over 3 Billion yen, or or $270 million
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2016/04/nintendos_eshop_revenues_hit_a_new_high_driven_by_dlc_and_generation_i_pokemon (http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2016/04/nintendos_eshop_revenues_hit_a_new_high_driven_by_dlc_and_generation_i_pokemon)


The article also states that 2016 was Nintendo's best year for online distribution but I don't have the Steam numbers for comparison.


So, going by 2015's numbers we have:


Steam revenue: $3.5 Billion
eShop revenue: $0.27 Billion


Also worth noticing is that some months on Steam eclipse the entire year of eShop. Also, GTA V alone accumulated half the revenue of the entire eShop.


Quote
As far as Sony and Microsoft are concerned, it's still not very comparable.


I'll just leave this little doozy here for anyone who may have forgot, courtesy of Eurogamer and many other outlets:
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-04-28-sonys-psn-is-making-more-money-than-all-of-nintendo (http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-04-28-sonys-psn-is-making-more-money-than-all-of-nintendo)


Nintendo is a truly huge company and their revenue will reflect that, but good business management is what dictates profit... or lack thereof in Nintendo's case.


Because revenue like it or not is our primary indicator of how much money is coming into a business.


As for that Valve source, I don't have it. I see that Gearnuke article at the top of my search results now, and there's also numerous other results from 2015 stating Valve earned $1.5 billion in 2014, so you ought to already have my sources.


Here's my counterpoint: Even at this latest rumored amount of $3.5 billion, that's Valve at their high point. Nintendo is at $4.46 billion at their low point. Have a look at Nintendo's revenues going back to 2008.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/216622/net-sales-of-nintendo-since-2008/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/216622/net-sales-of-nintendo-since-2008/)


When I said they're (meaning Microsoft, Sony, and Valve) just not very comparable, it's because of where Nintendo is at in comparison with where they've been. If you were around for the Gamecube, then you know that you don't bet against Nintendo. We will see this play out again.


To conclude, you are basically only here to state unfavorable facts about Nintendo. I'm not a Nintendo fanboy, and I hate the gouging that they do. And I don't even really like their decisions. Go ahead and bet against Nintendo. We'll just sit back and watch. And we'll laugh at you if they sell more than 5 million units in the first 12 months.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 22, 2017, 07:29:39 PM
n64 Release Price: $199.99 Adjusted for inflation $299.99
Gamecube Release Price $199.99 Adjusted for inflation $299.99
Wii Release Price $250.99 Adjusted for inflation 299.99
Wii U Release Price $299.99 Adjusted for Inflation $322.99
Wii U Deluxe Release Price $349.99 Adjusted for Inflation $376.83
Switch Release Price $299.99

"There are Nintendo games (Mario Kart, Splatoon, etc) that will sell incredibly well, and there are Nintendo games that will sell moderately/poorly. Nintendo could boost the sales of these games by lowering the price (like you suggest Sony and Microsoft do), but they choose not to. They would sooner sell a small number of units at a high price, than a larger number of units at a fairer one. sounds a bit like greed to me."

No, it is extremely rare for a Nintendo made game to do poorly. Nintendo rarely releases games that do under a million in sales. If they do, whatever loss they get is made up for by the sales of 10 other games. Nintendo games do not lose value. They just don't. Even old Mario Party games retain their value because the demand and supply are never at odds. If you go into any Gamestop and look at USED Nintendo game sales you'll see they are many times they are pretty much near their original MSRP. If a game doesn't sell well then they don't make more copies of the game, and it then becomes rare and its value goes up.

Playstation and Xbox games are usually following some fad. Lets compare it to the music industry. Certain acts have lasting value, and others are quickly forgotten. Also, other companies tend to oversupply. I remember when I was working at Gamestop San Andreas came out and they had 100s of copies of the game. Original retail price $49.99. Currently resalable on ebay for about $13.00. Now lets take and compare a Nintendo made(Atlus localized) game Cubivore. It's current value? $300. You just have to understand supply and demand. When the game came out Nintendo didn't even bring it to the states. They knew it would not sell here. It did but to only people like me. Nintendo is well aware how much their products are valued and sales them accordingly.  Even with in infinite digital supply they know what to charge people for their products. It's not greedy.

It's also a tool. Nintendo has a level of flexibility other companies do not have. If they wanted to they could change the price of any game and it would affect the value of their console. Nintendo didn't use this tool for Wii U. I'm pretty sure they estimated the longevity of the system. Not everything works out for Nintendo. To say Nintendo is greedy is to overlook that Nintendo has been the "Budget system" for 3 generations.

PSX price $299.99 AFI $492.76
ps2 price $299.99 AFI $418.60
ps3 price $499.99 AFI $610.71
ps4 price $399.99 AFI  $424.30  Current price $299.99

Also note, anyone worried about Launch need to remember that Spring and Summer are slow sales times. E3 is in June. I wouldn't expect most sales to pick up until Shopping season. Nintendo could very well have saved some stuff for e3. If not there is still Zelda. When Wii came out it only had two things going for it. Wii Sports and Zelda. Switch actually has more going for it than Wii did its first year.

Also, we should note. Wii U was the most Zelda deprived system. It had Hyrule Warriors, but so many people were waiting for Zelda to come out before they would buy a Wii U and it never did during its lifetime.

Also, lets put into perspective. NO MAINLINE FLAGSHIP TITLES CAME OUT FOR WII U. The closest to mainline games are Pikmin 3 and Star Fox, maybe DOnkey Kong but we know that in Nintendo's eyes those are B list titles. Nintendo has usually treated Zelda and Mario above all else. I'm not sure where Metroid fits in.

Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on January 22, 2017, 07:46:13 PM
Well, I'll have more of a sensible chuckle.

And even if they don't, I'll just tell you you're wrong because it's easy to have the right opinion on the internet!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Agent-X- on January 22, 2017, 09:18:34 PM
Also, we should note. Wii U was the most Zelda deprived system. It had Hyrule Warriors, but so many people were waiting for Zelda to come out before they would buy a Wii U and it never did during its lifetime.

Also, lets put into perspective. NO MAINLINE FLAGSHIP TITLES CAME OUT FOR WII U. The closest to mainline games are Pikmin 3 and Star Fox, maybe DOnkey Kong but we know that in Nintendo's eyes those are B list titles. Nintendo has usually treated Zelda and Mario above all else. I'm not sure where Metroid fits in.


You don't consider Super Mario 3D World a mainline title?
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on January 22, 2017, 10:18:28 PM
Who is Super Mario?
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: BranDonk Kong on January 22, 2017, 10:29:47 PM
Pretty sure the SNES was actually the most Zelda-deprived console, with just one game. If you don't count Wind Waker HD and Twilight Princess HD, then they're tied with one...unless you then decide to count Hyrule Warriors. But, don't count Hyrule Warriors.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Shaymin on January 22, 2017, 11:10:05 PM
Hyrule Warriors was the only Zelda game on Wii U I finished, so it counts.

(Largely because I actually got seasick playing Wind Waker HD, so, uh, good job guys?)
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on January 22, 2017, 11:37:12 PM
Them Nintendo water effects. The GameCube really knew how to handle water. Wave Race: Blue Storm, Super Mario Sunshine and Wind Waker. Even now, in HD, that water holds up!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Soren on January 22, 2017, 11:53:36 PM
Also, lets put into perspective. NO MAINLINE FLAGSHIP TITLES CAME OUT FOR WII U. The closest to mainline games are Pikmin 3 and Star Fox, maybe DOnkey Kong but we know that in Nintendo's eyes those are B list titles. Nintendo has usually treated Zelda and Mario above all else. I'm not sure where Metroid fits in.


??


Nintendo put out new 2D and 3D Mario games for Wii U, gave us an expansion DLC on the 2D Mario game, then doubled down and gave us another Mario game that allowed up to make new 2D Mario levels. What are you talking about?
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: pokepal148 on January 22, 2017, 11:59:19 PM
Who is Super Mario?
Smash Brothers? That's a horrible way to treat your siblings.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 23, 2017, 12:31:49 AM
Also, we should note. Wii U was the most Zelda deprived system. It had Hyrule Warriors, but so many people were waiting for Zelda to come out before they would buy a Wii U and it never did during its lifetime.

Also, lets put into perspective. NO MAINLINE FLAGSHIP TITLES CAME OUT FOR WII U. The closest to mainline games are Pikmin 3 and Star Fox, maybe DOnkey Kong but we know that in Nintendo's eyes those are B list titles. Nintendo has usually treated Zelda and Mario above all else. I'm not sure where Metroid fits in.


You don't consider Super Mario 3D World a mainline title?

No, Ultimately I enjoyed the game, but it was not terribly ambitious and it was a departure from existing lines. It is like a very good offshoot series though. If it wasn't such a departure in gameplay and perspective I would consider it a mainline game, but isn't it more or less a sequel to Super Mario 3d land?

Really, take a look at Super Mario Odyssey and you know what I mean. The game is big, and seems like a console effort. That is the mainline title I'm talking about. I really don't want to dismiss Super Mario 3d World because it was a really good game. However, I have to look at it like someone who hasn't played it. I held off on it for a very long time myself. I only bought it last summer. To any non Nintendo gamer it looks like Nintendo isn't putting much effort. Even if it was ACTUALLY really solid. Still, it seems like an offshoot series like NEW Super Mario Bros. Saying Mario 3d Land is a mainline title is like saying Final Fantasy Tactics is a mainline title. It's basically taking a mainline mario game and switching it to a mostly isometric 3d perspective like bomberman 64.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on January 23, 2017, 05:16:56 AM
Because revenue like it or not is our primary indicator of how much money is coming into a business.
...right? But so what? Revenue speaks more of the size of a company rather than how well it's run. You keep clinging to this revenue argument like it proves something. All it proves is that Nintendo is a larger company than Valve. Well who said otherwise?

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As for that Valve source, I don't have it.
...OK.
 
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Here's my counterpoint: Even at this latest rumored amount of $3.5 billion, that's Valve at their high point. Nintendo is at $4.46 billion at their low point. Have a look at Nintendo's revenues going back to 2008.
Again, this merely speaks of the size of the company. We will not argue that Nintendo is a bigger company than Valve. Nintendo, as a company, does so much more than Valve. IP licensing alone must be worth a fortune. Until very recently they owned a baseball team. They make toys and hardware and all sorts of things. I would be surprised if Valve's revenue was higher than Nintendo's. But when you directly compare the areas where they offer a similar service, Valve with Steam are clearly doing far better than Nintendo.



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If you were around for the Gamecube, then you know that you don't bet against Nintendo. We will see this play out again.
I agree that Nintendo will eventually bounce back. I'm just pretty sure it won't be with the Switch. I think it'll come after.

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To conclude, you are basically only here to state unfavorable facts about Nintendo.
Take a look at Nintendo over the last 5 or 6 years. They've gone from having a handheld console that sold 150m units to one that sold 60m units. They've gone from having a home console that sold in excess of 100m units to one that barely sold 13m units. Perhaps you and others here think this is acceptable. Maybe I hold Nintendo to a much higher standard than you and a lot of others do. If you want Nintendo to return to prosperity then you first have to identify the causes of their demise. Yes, this will involve bringing "unfavourable facts" to the forefront, but it is necessary to identify the problems before you can solve them. I believe Nintendo is repeating some of the poor practices that have caused their hardware sales to dwindle. I ultimately believe that one of the most important things a company can do is offer good value for money. I do not believe Nintendo are doing this with the Switch.




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And we'll laugh at you if they sell more than 5 million units in the first 12 months.
Nintendo need to sell significantly more than 5 million in the first 12 months to be on a path to success. I know I predicted 5 mil, but if this thing sells 6 or 7 mil that's not exactly something to celebrate. Either way, I stand by what I predicted, a reasonable launch month and then it'll fall of a cliff.




Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on January 23, 2017, 07:18:11 AM
Okay, but... are you a hater?
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: pokepal148 on January 23, 2017, 02:16:52 PM
Okay, but... are you a hater?
I don't know man, I mean the title of the thread says he isn't but his custom title says he is.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 23, 2017, 03:13:05 PM
Every time a new system is launched there is a sea of overwhelming negativity towards Nintendo. This happens whether it is warranted or not.  Even when sales were down in the Gamecube era Nintendo was still doing well. People keep thinking Nintendo will go the way of Sega, but Sega released failed SEGA CD, failed 32X, failed sega saturn, failed dreamcast, and spent an awful amount of money on Shenmue before Microsoft released Xbox and they needed to call it quits. Nintendo has historically done well and only had 4 bad years after it had 6 amazing years. With how the well Wii did, Nintendo could have like 5 failed consoles before they would have to call it quits.

Switch is a portable console that has Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey. Which, are games that look amazing. We're a long way from Mario 64 ds. Sony wishes they could have done so well with the Vita and PSP, but Nintendo has always been king of the handhelds. 

We shouldn't ask ourselves what Nintendo is doing. We should ask how is Sony and Microsoft going to compete with android and steam micro-consoles in the future? In 2 years there are going to be other companies with pretty attractive machines.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: King of Twitch on January 23, 2017, 04:06:38 PM
Every time a new system is launched there is a sea of overwhelming negativity towards Nintendo. This happens whether it is warranted or not.  Even when sales were down in the Gamecube era Nintendo was still doing well. People keep thinking Nintendo will go the way of Sega, but Sega released failed SEGA CD, failed 32X, failed sega saturn, failed dreamcast, and spent an awful amount of money on Shenmue before Microsoft released Xbox and they needed to call it quits. Nintendo has historically done well and only had 4 bad years after it had 6 amazing years. With how the well Wii did, Nintendo could have like 5 failed consoles before they would have to call it quits.

Switch is a portable console that has Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey. Which, are games that look amazing. We're a long way from Mario 64 ds. Sony wishes they could have done so well with the Vita and PSP, but Nintendo has always been king of the handhelds. 

We shouldn't ask ourselves what Nintendo is doing. We should ask how is Sony and Microsoft going to compete with android and steam micro-consoles in the future? In 2 years there are going to be other companies with pretty attractive machines.


(http://i1283.photobucket.com/albums/a556/zapr2k/IWATATIME_zpsptiossch.png)




Look at the time's it's almost 3 o'clock.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Stogi on January 23, 2017, 04:21:02 PM
^Nice

I'm on board the Switch train now. I don't think I'll buy it at launch though. I still think it's a better idea for me to buy a Wii U, Zelda, and scoop up all the games I missed for the system. But I really do think the Switch will be a success.

Despite Nintendo's fumbles (much of which can be fixed after launch), the Switch provides a set of very unique use cases that simply cannot happen on any other console. And because of those cases, it will gather a lot of attention.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 23, 2017, 05:06:44 PM
I'm not buying a Switch at launch, because I missed the pre-sell window. Also, more complicated financial reasons.

I'll try to nab one during the fall though.

Also, e3 is either going to go three ways. Either Nintendo has something new, Nintendo Disappoints, or Nintendo just continues the messaging. Last e3 we expected a whole lot more than just Zelda, we expected maybe something more about switch considering it comes out in 39 days. Nintendo has proven though, it really doesn't need e3. However e3 is a good time to release information.

This year it is almost as if we already had e3. Mario is all we would need. I would imagine this e3 they'll show a playable version of Mario. They might show off other games, but it could just be Mario.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: DonkeyBilly Kong on January 23, 2017, 05:44:46 PM
They could have a big Mario landscape and only that if they plan to make that their new E3 style and instead give most of their information through Directs.  It might be wise to show third party support (if they have it), since the lineup now is very sparse.  It would also be a good time to introduce some alternative Joycons or other hardware news.

Pokemon Stars is the perfect distraction from an otherwise slow start in gaining support.  I don't see myself buying it, since I already have Moon, but it will surely sell well.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: nickmitch on January 23, 2017, 06:29:29 PM
Also, e3 is either going to go three ways. Either Nintendo has something new, Nintendo Disappoints, or Nintendo just continues the messaging. Last e3 we expected a whole lot more than just Zelda, we expected maybe something more about switch considering it comes out in 39 days. Nintendo has proven though, it really doesn't need e3. However e3 is a good time to release information.


I think it can really only go one of two ways: Nintendo shows they've got more great stuff coming or they disappoint.  I think there will be a slew of Directs that fill out the release schedule a little more, but I think E3 could make or break momentum going into the holiday.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Stogi on January 23, 2017, 06:35:00 PM
I'm really hoping for whatever Retro is making.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: nickmitch on January 24, 2017, 11:24:23 AM
I worry that because it's been so long, the expectations have become unrealistic for Retro.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 25, 2017, 01:34:41 AM
Well, at this point I don't expect anything from Retro. I hope for Metroid, but I generally expect it to be treated as if it is in F-Zero territory. There was a blurb from about 2 years back saying Metroid should be on a next gen console other than Wii U. From the sounds of it though. They hadn't even started. At that point we were still disappointed we hadn't seen the powerhouse version of metroid.

https://gamerant.com/metroid-prime-nx-release-645/

which perfectly plays into the Metroid Federation Force ending (Spoilers)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-goCv7zyBWU

I'm terrified that Metroid will not be Metroid in the future. I can take alternate styles on Mario and Zelda, but Metroid I cannot.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Luigi Dude on January 25, 2017, 03:18:31 AM
I'm terrified that Metroid will not be Metroid in the future. I can take alternate styles on Mario and Zelda, but Metroid I cannot.

And this is the exact reason Metroid is a low priority series for Nintendo right now.  Metroid has never been a huge series and yet it has one of the most close minded fanbase in gaming.  Anything that's not considered pure Metroid, is basically **** on, even great games like Fusion and Prime 3 because much of the fanbase doesn't consider them pure enough.  Oh and then when you get flawed but still good games like Other M or Federation Force that tried to do something different, many Metroid fans will literally turn into terrorist and blow themselves up online over just the mention of those games.

That's the problem, Nintendo wants to expand the Metroid franchise so it appeals to a wider audience but the fanbase goes ape **** over anything that isn't a rehash of Super Metroid or Prime 1.  Why spend a **** load of money on something that's not guaranteed to be a hit and has a core audience that will literally send death threats and harass the creators of said game.

Now I still believe we'll get a new Metroid in the future but it's not hard to see why Nintendo has been taking it's time, especially when it's studio's can work on any other franchise and not have to worry about the kind of harassment Metroid fans will give them, on top of said games selling better then any Metroid game would have as well.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 25, 2017, 03:57:05 AM
I wouldn't mind a Metroid in Breath of the Wild Style. The thing about Metroid is it has a serious tone. It's a series that got its inspiration from Alien movie series. The Prime series were actually million sellers. It just doesn't seem like Nintendo treats the series with the same revelry as their other series because it wasn't one Miyamoto developed.
I think a lot of people want to see what Metroid Prime would look like on new hardware. I think a lot of people wanted to see that when Wii was coming out as well. With Wii U we were hoping to get it at the beginning of a generation. It had been awhile since a Metroid game had came out, Wii U was far more powerful than previous hardware. Then nothing happened.

Nintendo should not try to expand Metroid to a wider audience. The best selling game of last year was Call of Duty. I'm not saying make Metroid like call of duty. I'm saying take Metroid back to its roots. You're a Bounty Hunter in space, you're in a cave, or alien ruins, filled with scary aliens.  Not everything Other M: Did was wrong. It had some decent directions. A lot of what was wrong with Other M was they didn't get good translators, and when the created the Wii Mote they didn't realize they created a controller that had limited possibilities.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: DonkeyBilly Kong on January 25, 2017, 01:40:38 PM
Metroid has a unique place in Nintendo's IP.  I don't think it needs to be expanded, but it could be updated and improved.  Games like Federation Force don't need the IP.  If it doesn't make the game better or act as much leverage for sales, then it is only watering down the brand.  People were happy with the pinball game, if only because it was so good and sci-fi series are traditionally turned into pinball games.

An open world Metroid on an alien planet could be awesome.  It would actually be closer to the feeling I originally had with Metroid, similar to BotW recapturing the feeling of exploration that was largely in our imaginations in the original Zelda.  I don't want to get my hopes up, though.  A traditional 2D Metroid would still be fun.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 25, 2017, 02:23:22 PM
After playing Axiom verge I wouldn't mind a good updated 2d Metroid. One that takes full advantage of a controller. I don't mind more options. On the other hand Nintendo could whip together any 2d game and if it doesn't take them 2 months to make then they have a real internal problem.

What would really be cool is a new Metroid Prime game with an additional Metroid Maker editor. You could have the best of both worlds.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: nickmitch on January 25, 2017, 03:02:12 PM
Nintendo should not try to expand Metroid to a wider audience. The best selling game of last year was Call of Duty. I'm not saying make Metroid like call of duty. I'm saying take Metroid back to its roots.

But Metroid at its roots, as you would go on to describe, is not thing like Call of Duty.  Not sure why bring it up other than to say FPSes are popular.  But CoD sells on strength of online multiplayer, which isn't Metroid at its roots.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 25, 2017, 04:10:32 PM
Call of Duty is not a kids game. My problem would be if they took Metroid and made it more kid friendly in an effort to improves sells. Federation force seems to have that directions. It isn't a mainline game so it doesn't deserve the same level of scrutiny for this. A mainline Metroid game would.

I don't want to see a chibi Samus. Zelda could get away with this because in the original Zelda Link was a little elf. Metroid should have a tone somewhere between Aliens and Star Wars. Miyamoto once said that when he makes games, he doesn't make them to appeal to a certain audience, usually his sensibilities are kid friendly though. I don't want them to make big headed little bodied Samus for kids to get big sales. That doesn't mean those wouldn't be good games, but I want their motives to be art motivated and not commercially motivated. There are some cases where over commercialism has actually backfired against the tastes of fans. Look at Batman and Robin for an example.

Also, it would be really counter-intuitive to the system. When Wii U came out we didn't see too many games that took advantage of the hardware from Nintendo themselves. I saw a few from Ubisoft, but only Pikmin 3 and Mario Kart really looked fantastic. Honestly, it seems like Nintendo pushed the Wii more than the Wii U. Wii U has Breath of the Wild coming out, but only in its Twilight days.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Ian Sane on January 25, 2017, 04:29:22 PM
I've made this point a lot but Nintendo seems to think that "mass appeal" means that every game has to appeal to all audiences.  They don't understand the idea of less popular franchises with dedicated fanbases being a system seller to a specific demographic of gamers.  You get that with genres.  Every generation seems to have one console that becomes the shmup console or the RPG console.  That doesn't sell to every mainstream consumer out there but for the people that are passionate about those genres that console becomes a must-own and if they only buy one system not being that console could cost you a sale.  These groups aren't big like the Wii Sports crowd but the numbers add up and being the console for everyone means being the console for this group and that group and that group and they all may have totally different tastes.

Metroid is not a system seller for the mainstream but it IS for Metroid fans.  So if they offer a non-shitty Metroid game they just sold some systems.  And that adds to the sales figures which attracts more support which gives your console more variety which means it appeals to more people which should increase sales.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Stogi on January 25, 2017, 07:02:43 PM
Call of Duty is not a kids game.

LMAO
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 26, 2017, 12:04:08 AM
well you got me there. I just play single player on Call of Duty. I burned out on counter strike.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on January 26, 2017, 11:22:48 AM
Metroid needs to be reinvented in a way that appeals to classic fans (no death threats) and a more modern audience. Giving the franchise an action-oriented design in Other M was one attempt at this. A lot of the decisions being made in Breath of the Wild make a lot of sense if applied to Metroid: free-roaming an open world with challenges that allow the player to upgrade their health and abilities, making the game about survival and player approach, and the option to engage in the story or not.

However, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that what Metroid needs is Platinum Games. Bear with me here, because this is the first time I would ever consider letting Platinum touch a franchise I actually love- I would say that the best parts of Other M are when Samus is vaulting around and kicking ass, getting characters in headlocks and blasting the crap out of them with missiles. The boss fights in particular were pretty cinematic and thrilling. The flaws were the story elements, gating of previous areas, and the control mapping. I'd say a number of the challenges players could tackle during the limited exploration segments in order to obtain power ups were actually quite substantial, and I enjoyed a lot of them.

While boss fights are integral to Metroid, Fusion took the approach a step further and streamlined the action of the game in order to deliver a more tightly-action-oriented approach. While Platinum has a penchant for delivering on such action, they could expand on Samus' play style (and her use of projectile weapons in a similar vein to Bayonetta) with their control schemes, and maybe even experiment with non-linear progression and power up acquisition in a way they haven't in the past. The way Platinum integrates combat moves and allows them to change enemy encounters, such as those present in The Wonderful 101, Metal Gear Rising, and Bayonetta, could be a good fit for Metroid, and allow players to tackle individual runs in their own ways. Likewise, while they could have certain power ups be mandatory for unlocking newer areas and boss fights in the game, if they were to create solid combat fundamentals and have earlier bosses toy with the core mechanics of the game, it might be a great way for players to once again approach the game in their own fashion.

While it would end up combining two of the most volatile gaming communities (Metroid elitists and Platinum elitists), I think that it could be executed properly and take the best parts of Other M and improve upon them. It might even be an easier game to develop. Plus, the Metroid elitists might clash so heavily with Platinum fans that the ensuing battle would wipe both communities out and pave the way for a better future.

EDIT: I apologize if I hurt anyone's feelings about being a Platinum Games fan- however, there's a very tiny, very dedicated group of people that think Platinum make under-appreciated masterpieces and complain when their games underperform. The reason for this, of course, is that precision/mastery-based character action games aren't necessarily a hot commodity, and that, like many technical games that take time to master, they aren't what the majority of gamers out there want to play on their down-time. Team-based, technical and performance-based games are the hotter commodity.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Clonester11 on January 26, 2017, 06:34:01 PM
I've made this point a lot but Nintendo seems to think that "mass appeal" means that every game has to appeal to all audiences.  They don't understand the idea of less popular franchises with dedicated fanbases being a system seller to a specific demographic of gamers.  You get that with genres.  Every generation seems to have one console that becomes the shmup console or the RPG console.  That doesn't sell to every mainstream consumer out there but for the people that are passionate about those genres that console becomes a must-own and if they only buy one system not being that console could cost you a sale.  These groups aren't big like the Wii Sports crowd but the numbers add up and being the console for everyone means being the console for this group and that group and that group and they all may have totally different tastes.

Metroid is not a system seller for the mainstream but it IS for Metroid fans.  So if they offer a non-shitty Metroid game they just sold some systems.  And that adds to the sales figures which attracts more support which gives your console more variety which means it appeals to more people which should increase sales.

That's a very good point. It reminds me of another example: Baseball fans. If you want to play on a console, you have to buy a PS4 for The Show.

Also, I'm not sure why some are saying Metroid needs to be re-invented. Metroid Prime was (is) such an amazing and appealing game. It was refreshing to play at the time. If Metroid comes back, and I hope it does, it needs to be a "Prime" game. I was really hoping the Switch reveal would include a new Metroid Prime game from Retro (or a fresh new franchise from them in a similar mold/genre). I guess we will find out eventually what they are working on.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 26, 2017, 10:32:29 PM
There are a couple of games that are very Metroid-eque that aren't really associated with Metroid.

Half-Life, and Portal. With Portal it is very SciFi gun oriented and that gun is used to solve puzzles that get you through the game. Unlike Metroid these games are really linear. Zelda is less linear, but still linear.  I don't say they are similar simply because of the perspective. Some of the ways you interact is pretty similar. Some aspects of Metal Gear Solid remind me of Metroid.

If I were to make Metroid different. I would make it Gigantic. All Nintendo would really need to do is tinker with the Breath of the Wild engine(Which I guess is related to the Xenoblade engine?)

(http://i.imgur.com/woOqJBB.png)
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: MagicCow64 on January 26, 2017, 10:42:23 PM
Focusing on the action is about the last thing I want a Metroid game to concentrate on. This is one reason among many that Other M sucked.

I like the suggestion about scope. They could greatly expand on the ship element of Prime 3, make part of the game mediated through the cockpit to deal with different/larger-scale spins on the traditional Metroid formula. I'm thinking maybe something distantly related to The Minish Cap.

And hey, that could incorporate a more actiony-spin on the combat as well, imported from Metroid Blast from Nintendoland!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on January 26, 2017, 11:06:42 PM
If you look at Zelda and you look at Metroid. Zelda has bigger environments. Metroid is deep in caverns.

Super Metroid takes place on planet Zebes. Imagine if the world was just huge though. The hud area on Metroid Prime is really not very big, but imagine if it was the size of hyrule field and there were tons and tons and tons and tons of caverns to crawl into.

If I were to improve anything it would probably be the platforming aspect. Having played games like Assassins creed,prince of persia, and Last of Us there are more advanced ways to navigate a world. They should probably have a lock-on Auto aim like Metroid Prime or Zelda(With the option of first person free fire)
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on January 27, 2017, 12:05:53 AM
While I love Prime, it was clear by Corruption that Retro neither had the will or the talent to make a game like the original Prime again. Let it be what it is, and don't resurrect it just to have a First-Person title in the Switch library.


Having played enough Assassin's Creed to last a lifetime (aka one game, god it was boring) I think the movement options in that series are definitely not what Metroid needs.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: King of Twitch on January 27, 2017, 01:09:18 AM
Why does it need to be like Prime 1? Then people would complain it's too similar! I haven't played in awhile but I do remember it did lots of new things: took away the pure isolation the series was known for, added powerups that hadn't been done in the 3D games yet, the motion aiming was brilliant, the little interactive bits with motion controls was fun, it added some linearity so the game journalist crybabies could actually finish the game, then it finished the story arc with Samus blowing up the planet and saving the day. Come on, that's plenty of talent. That is THE best you could possibly hope for in a sequel.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on January 27, 2017, 01:23:12 AM
Prime 3 is overly repetitive and gimmicky. It relied too heavily on grapple tomfoolery and the aiming was just okay. The ridding of the isolationist angle was the only passable element, but it was a drastic tonal shift.

It is not as good as Prime 1. It's as simple as that.

Metroid needs to stop being what we WANT it to be- that was the philosophy that made Prime such a surprise and delight. I don't want another Prime game. I don't want another Other M, and honestly, I don't trust Nintendo to make another 2D Metroid that doesn't ape from the original, because the two most "different" 2D Metroids both aren't fun.

These are opinions, of course, but I'd rather see the series move in a different direction.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Spak-Spang on January 27, 2017, 04:37:14 AM
I liked Prime 3 more than Prime 2.  Prime 3 was very engaging and fun to me.  But Prime 2 was too difficult. 
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Clonester11 on January 27, 2017, 07:19:50 AM
Prime is one of Nintendo's best games of the 2000's. While the sequels were perhaps not up to par, and Retro may or may not be up to the task, I don't really want a Metroid game just for the sake of a Metroid game. It should aim high in the quality department and be given to a developer who can achieve that goal. The Prime name sells, not like Mario or Pokemon, but it still sells. A reboot of the Prime series I understand, because they can still make that series live again, instead of simply heading in a different direction and making a game which may or may not be decent and may or may not sell well.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Agent-X- on January 28, 2017, 12:10:40 AM
The thing that really differentiated Metroid Prime for me was a combination of the environments (level of graphical detail) in combination with the story. There was a lot of discovery that really brought the game world to life. I felt as though I really had to pay attention to every detail.


Unfortunately, that really only works well when the console is a technical powerhouse and the game is attempting to showcase the graphical potential.  :-\
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Ian Sane on January 28, 2017, 02:07:10 AM
I really don't like the idea of incorporating more action elements into Metroid.  To me Metroid is about isolation and discovery.  Action is a very minor part.  Hell I would probably still like a Metroid style game with NO action as figuring out where to go and that feeling of "oh I can go back to that area" that comes from getting a new ability is the real hook for me.

Other M pretty much lacked any of the elements of Metroid I actually like, and I don't even care about the story, I couldn't stand the gameplay.  So when anyone suggests copying anything from it, even its "good parts", I'm turned off.  I figure if I want action then I'll play something like Bayonetta.  Metroid essentially invented a whole genre so my feeling is that it should lead the genre.  Right now indies are leading that genre.  Nintendo has tried a few attempts to make Metroid a shooter, like the recent Federation Force, but that's me-too stuff.  Metroid is a pioneer and a leader.  Its IP shouldn't be relegated to following behind leaders in a different genre.

The recent years of how Metroid has been treated is like if Mario wasn't making platformers or even kart racers anymore and was restricted to those Olympics games with Sonic.  No, Super Mario Odyssey is what a series of that pedigree is supposed to be aiming for.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: MagicCow64 on January 28, 2017, 02:33:03 AM
I'm glad Ian is posting again 👆

Metroid Prime 3, while probably not as good as 1 overall, did a lot well, used the Wii tech correctly, and has some of the best areas/sequences of the series. But besides that, Prime essentially invented a genre of game that has not been replicated to my knowledge, and I think there's plenty of room to kick out the walls on the basic formula and articulate and expand the kinds of interaction that are possible, environmental interaction being a hallmark of the series. And that's where the better level of tech on the Switch can come in; Prime 4 can build additional layers of immersion through better graphical fidelity, technologically facilitated gameplay elements (cutting-edge physics, expanded scope, materially constructed objects and obstacles), and plain old design innovation in a persistent 3D space-type that only has three games to its name.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on January 28, 2017, 03:33:56 AM
Or you could just kill Metroid.

We should totally just kill Metroid!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: pokepal148 on January 28, 2017, 03:49:47 AM
Or you could just kill Metroid.

We should totally just kill Metroid!
You can't kill Ridley though.

You can try but he'll still show up in the next game.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on February 07, 2017, 06:46:57 AM
Less than four weeks until Switch Day and it's still very easy to preorder a Switch for launch day (in the UK at least) not sure how well it's going in the rest of the world...
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on February 07, 2017, 09:20:46 AM
What is this, an Ian Sane thread? We get it, you are right, Nintendo is doomed.

Also, you give a strong impression of a hater.

EDIT: While a strong initial launch is d finitely key for any console, I can imagine that part of the continued appeal and marketing of the Switch is getting the device in people's hands and having them share it with others. It's an attempt at social marketing, which admittedly might be counterintuitive, considering gamers in general.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: lolmonade on February 07, 2017, 11:40:05 AM
Less than four weeks until Switch Day and it's still very easy to preorder a Switch for launch day (in the UK at least) not sure how well it's going in the rest of the world...


In my area (Midwest U.S.) pre-orders are sold out, but I think some retailers (Best Buy) are still occasionally opening up pre-orders.  Can't tell if it's a sign of Nintendo committing more to them over time as they're able to ramp-up production from unforseen demand, or if they've been playing a game of trickling pre-order opportunities.


Either way, around here, best bet would be to stake out of a target on release day if you don't have a Switch preordered already.



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on February 07, 2017, 02:00:39 PM
It's weird to see an article on IGN where pretty much everyone has positive impressions (http://ca.ign.com/articles/2017/02/06/nintendo-switch-hands-on-impressions-from-8-ign-staff-members) and things to say about a Nintendo console. Of course, the same article has a link to a site to purchase the Switch with the disclaimer that "This link directs to a retail affiliate. IGN may receive a commission from your purchase." Therefore, it might be in their best interests to highly praise the Switch to create some hype and demand to get people to purchase it from this easily accessible and convenient link while reading in order to make some more money. Or maybe they actually are enthusiastic. Who can tell in this age of gaming "journalism"?
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: MagicCow64 on February 07, 2017, 04:04:51 PM
That's an interesting point, you'd think any professional video game website would try to gin up as much interest in everything as possible. And yet that's not what usually happens. There really are some bizarre cultural affectations in the video game world that run deep enough to seemingly counter business logic. Too many folks took schoolyard "kiddy" taunts deep, and were also the kind of people to become "professional game journalists".
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on February 07, 2017, 05:50:25 PM
We get it, you are right, Nintendo is doomed.


I may remember you favourably, my child, when the gloating doth commence.

Quote
Also, you give a strong impression of a hater.


This is a thread about the potential success of the Switch. My post is pertinent to said success. I have tried to conduct myself using only cold hard logic. Any deviation from this is borne out of frustration at a company I truly love continuing to make awful decisions.


How about this, let's say you and I are cousins, and we have a third cousin that is addicted to heroin. I'm pointing out the dangers of heroin addiction and getting upset when he won't stop. You, on the other hand, are getting angry with me for giving said heroin addict a hard time and not being more optimistic about how the addiction might turn out.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on February 07, 2017, 06:33:46 PM
While I find your comments about availability still being high very interesting, it does not reflect upon the state of all regions. As stated previously, availability is low-to-non-existent on the East Coast of North America, that I can surely confirm.

I think you are blowing the situation entirely out of proportion. The fact that you feel the need to gloat is absurd and does not sit well with your heroin addict analogy at all. This is the video games industry, it is about the sale of recreational devices. Of course people have tempered their expectations, especially after the Wii U was a colossal failure. I was extremely negative about the Wii U and even about the Switch before the marketing strategy seemed to pretty much be a step in the right direction. Please remember that those who have allocated money towards the purchase of such a device have done so knowing that Nintendo could indeed screw up.

Also remember that the people you are discussing this subject with are human beings, and may have dealt with addiction in their families, in addition to having seen addiction consume and kill family members. So making a "cuh-razy" analogy such as that is absolutely fucking ridiculous in addition to being very much unlike the situation we are discussing. Thank you.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on February 07, 2017, 06:53:19 PM
The fact that you feel the need to gloat is absurd and does not sit well with your heroin addict analogy at all.


Any gloating (which will of course be made in jest) is entirely motivated by my making a valid hypothesis built on logic and reason and then being roundly shouted down and chastised.


Quote
Please remember that those who have allocated money towards the purchase of such a device have done so knowing that Nintendo could indeed screw up.


I am one of those that have allocated money towards a purchase. I'm paying close to £500 on launch day. In fact, I actually considered buying a second one today because I'm already getting another set of joycons before MK 8 comes out, I'd get another grip, dock AC adapter. I'd basically be getting another Switch for less than £100.

Gratuitous political cheap shot removed
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on February 07, 2017, 06:54:36 PM
That's an interesting point, you'd think any professional video game website would try to gin up as much interest in everything as possible. And yet that's not what usually happens. There really are some bizarre cultural affectations in the video game world that run deep enough to seemingly counter business logic. Too many folks took schoolyard "kiddy" taunts deep, and were also the kind of people to become "professional game journalists".

The big problem is the way the industry grew. Video games were treated as toys and kid's stuff through it's early beginning in the 80's with Arcades, Atari and the NES / Master System. It's not like there were really professional reviewers discussing the artistic or technical merits of arcade games or early home consoles. Nintendo released Nintendo Power as a way of just advertising more titles for people to buy along with hints, tricks and maps to provide some practical value to the magazine. However, most reviews of games were done on the playground or just visiting with friends.

Things changed a bit in the SNES/ Genesis era as other gaming magazines started coming out but, to my knowledge, it was all done by fans and enthusiasts of the medium. As young gamers grew up and went to school and college and learned how to critically assess things like literature, movies or art, some have tried applying that to video games but there's never been a majorly successful or highly regarded critic of the medium like say Roger Ebert, Pauline Kael or Gene Siskel in movies. They had much influence in the medium they reviewed but were also very good at their craft though they could have their foibles and faults. Yet even now, you can read back and their work on movies they reviewed and so much of it still holds up and is useful. Who can you say that about in the world of video games?

It was in the GameCube era that I first saw video game reviews appearing newspapers I read. Often it seemed to be done by a young person in their late teens or early 20's going by their picture next to their name. I often thought they were probably freshly hired by the newspaper and it was their first job or an intern trying to break into the newspaper industry and get experience. It's not like video game reviews or news was given a prominent place or there own section in newspapers. Usually it was in the back section of the culture or entertainment section. Even today, if one watches the news, you don't see much discussion of videogame related news like with announcements of TV programs or movie titles. If videogame discussion comes up, it is usually because of how much money something made or how its influencing society at the moment like videogames causing violence or Pokémon Go causing disruption with people wandering about everywhere on their phones. It's not regarded as a serious medium but that's no surprise considering the people who do cover it.

The internet soon took over as the place to get videogame information. After sites like IGN, 1UP or GameSpot kind of arose as places for people to get their reviews and latest news on games, YouTube came along allowing people to better see the games in action. Yet, again, the people on YouTube who have become big players in reviewing videogames aren't really of a high caliber. I highly doubt they would be considered serious critics by their peers or others in the wide range of critics and reviewers. It goes back to the debate of whether games are art which is still be discussed. If anything, most YouTube personalities or bloggers are of the form of an editorial than a review. Add in the problem of sites and YouTubers dependent on advertising, trying to stay friends with people in the industry to get news or scoops or getting swag and handouts from developers, it further keeps the medium from gaining any kind of integrity or legitimacy. Heck, there are plenty of times people seem to write reviews having only played a small portion of a game or not at all and the review is full on incorrect facts or missed information. As such, I don't see the industry ever being considered an actual enrichment for culture anytime soon with the state of the Gaming Journalism we currently see even if actual, individual gamers would disagree. I didn't follow any of the gamergate controversy last year (or is it now 2 years ago?) but I remember some of the points being raised about game journalists painted a pretty bleak picture. It comes off as amateurs trying to pose as professionals.

That's not to say everyone involved in trying to review or cover games is of the same cloth or not worth listening to. I've stuck around with Nintendo World Report this long since I've always respected the reviews and information it provides. My favorite game reviewer of the past couple years has been Grubdog from the Pietriots website. I love his style of writing. He seems to be able to capture the essence of the fun to be experienced in a game and put that into his writing and review of a title to give you a great idea of what playing the game is like or could be like. There are times after reading a review of his, I immediately want to go and buy a game (or if I have it) start playing it myself. There are titles I wasn't interested in before that he's made me interested in because of how he writes up his experiences with them. Honestly, he's the closest the reviewer I'd compare in that Roger Ebert mold. Yet, again with Pietroits or NWR, these are volunteers and fans who are putting out this content. Unpaid non-professionals but they do it better than the actual professionals these days.

That's why I think Nintendo is right to consider their business as toys or just games and not worry about their games creating a grand artistic statement. It keeps them on the right side of game development where the focus is keeping a player entertained and not about an epic story to rival a Hollywood production. Doesn't mean the games they make can't have artistic merit or plot in them but they are smart enough to realize that shouldn't be the main focus in making a game and why they're still standing today.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on February 07, 2017, 07:06:58 PM
The fact that you feel the need to gloat is absurd and does not sit well with your heroin addict analogy at all.


Any gloating (which will of course be made in jest) is entirely motivated by my making a valid hypothesis built on logic and reason and then being roundly shouted down and chastised.

Oh man. You realize then that going by your heroin addiction analogy, you are basically saying that you will be gloating to your family about how right you were and wrong they were when the third cousin encounters these dangers of heroin addiction. That... is not a good stance to take in such a matter. I can't see any family where that makes you look good. Therefore, the analogy is not good as Evan_B was trying to point out.

Quote
This is why Trump is your president.

This statement also makes no sense. It has nothing to do with the part of the post you quoted and seems to have been made to be possibly inflammatory. As established, the heroin analogy is flawed in comparison to the actual situation of how much and how fast the Switch might sell. If a person has gone through a situation with a close friend or loved one who has gone through a battle with addiction they either lost or overcame through a long, tough, struggle, the personal trauma they experienced during that time will not be close to how they or anyone should or would feel to how good or bad the Switch sells. Therefore, by pointing out, again, the erroneous comparison of arguing about a person with an addiction problem to arguing about potential switch sales and how it could be seen as insensitive, what does that have to do with Trump winning the presidency? There is no relation. You do yourself no favors when you say make posts on logic and reason and then add statements and comments like this that show none.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Phil on February 07, 2017, 08:56:42 PM
I'm not a hater, but I will gloat when I'm right? Well, might not be a hater, but it makes you a petty jerk, which is worse. And then does "this is why Trump is your president?"

Get some damn perspective, son. Get away from your keyboard for a few days and cool down.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Oedo on February 07, 2017, 10:05:31 PM
According to a TIME interview with Kimishima, "launch day preorders have nearly reached the maximum available," and Nintendo is increasing its production of Switch. With respect to the UK, market factors outside of Nintendo's control have led to retailers pricing the Switch much higher than they would have a year ago (which is no doubt having an impact on preorders, as RFN's own Greg Leahy can attest to). From an objective, fact-based perspective, I don't see how you can view the overall pre-release position of Switch as anything other than positive.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Stogi on February 07, 2017, 10:17:10 PM
Pre-orders are sold out in Virginia.

Ebay prices are creeping up for guaranteed switch pre-orders as well.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: MagicCow64 on February 07, 2017, 11:28:19 PM
Well-stated examination of the current state of video games vis a vis criticism

I agree with everything you've written. From one perspective, you could argue that this is all part of the growing pains of any new medium, and that it took decades to develop the technique and language surrounding motion pictures, for instance, which started off as hand-cranked novelty exhibitions.

But with video games as a modern phenomenon, it really seems like the consumers, producers, and commentators are locked in an unhealthy hermetic ecosystem. I've heard anecdotally from friends in academia that critical studies of video games were starting to pick up steam, but got kneecapped by the Gamergate "movement".

At the same time, the product is becoming more and more overdetermined by multiplayer and online  considerations (including streamers) on the one hand, in which it's hard to describe something like Overwatch or Destiny as "art" (are sports art? are board games?), and on the other hand by semi-interactive theme park attraction games that are perversely trying to focus on narrative and eschew the actual foundational and unique elements of the medium. As you say, I think Nintendo is one of the few major producers still doing it right (at least part of the time).
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ShyGuy on February 08, 2017, 01:53:21 AM
UK has always been a week market for Nintendo. The chavs just want their GTA and their FIFA footy, bruv! ;)
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on February 08, 2017, 06:22:49 AM

Quote
Gratuitous political cheap shot removed


Ha, fair enough. It would appear that some people have maybe taken some of my comments perhaps a little too seriously and are getting a bit worked up by them, so I would like to genuinely and sincerely apologise for the offence or outrage I may have potentially inadvertently caused. It was never my intention to upset anyone, honest. We're talking about video games on the internet. I often forget that people take this more seriously than I do.
That being said, I'll try in future to keep to the topic of the thread, that being the success (or lack there, of) of the Nintendo Switch with as little sass as I can manage. And if anyone would like to have the more fruitful and positive discussion on how Nintendo can turn it all around, I'll be happy to have that too!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Phil on February 08, 2017, 06:24:41 AM
Apology accepted (at least by me). Good show!  ;D
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Sarail on February 10, 2017, 08:43:27 PM
Not a hater, but...

Switch will be awesome. It's going to kick so much ass — especially once word gets out to the mass market of casual gamers outside of the core. If my boyfriend, who loves his Xbox more than anything, and doesn't necessarily care for Nintendo all that much, can get super excited for Nintendo's new console (I mean, seriously, he's stoked for this thing...maybe more than my little fangirl ass is), then that means Nintendo have a hit on their hands once again.

Now, more than ever, it's up to third-parties to seriously deliver the goods.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on February 11, 2017, 05:42:36 AM

Now, more than ever, it's up to third-parties to seriously deliver the goods.


Third-party support is one of the bigger problems facing the Switch. It's one thing for the unbreakable Kimi Shima and co to point out that the Switch is compatible with Unity and Unreal but that doesn't count for much if developers aren't going to bring their bigger titles to the Switch. Final Fantasy XV, RE VII, Mass Effect Andromeda etc. Where are they? Even Ubi aren't supporting the Switch in the same way they did the Wii and Wii U. EA only offering the legacy edition of FIFA? They offered more support to the Wii U. Nintendo need to be aggressive with their courting of third-parties, just like Microsoft did over ten years ago with the 360.
You talk about how excited your Xbox-loving boyf is for the Switch and that is great, but what is he going to play after Breath of the Wild? Is he going to wait two months to play a three year old game like Mario Kart 8? And even if Nintendo had that third party support, the games would still run better on the Xbone (or PS 4), so why is he so excited for the Switch? So he can play on a system with a significantly smaller library that plays at a lower frame rate/resolution? Outside of first-party software, the Switch is all but redundant, just like the Wii U. Oh, and let's not forget that you have to pay a premium price for the Switch. How many of us here are wii U owners paying well in excess of $400 to play Zelda and then Mario Kart 8 a couple of months later?
The best Nintendo could do, would be if at E3 they had a huge third-party presentation featuring all the biggest publishers/developers and all the big games that are coming to Xbone/PS4 were also announced for Switch. That is the best they could hope for. To have the same as the competition with noticeably less performance. But they won't even achieve that.



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Agent-X- on February 11, 2017, 01:31:23 PM

Now, more than ever, it's up to third-parties to seriously deliver the goods.


Third-party support is one of the bigger problems facing the Switch. It's one thing for the unbreakable Kimi Shima and co to point out that the Switch is compatible with Unity and Unreal but that doesn't count for much if developers aren't going to bring their bigger titles to the Switch. Final Fantasy XV, RE VII, Mass Effect Andromeda etc. Where are they? Even Ubi aren't supporting the Switch in the same way they did the Wii and Wii U. EA only offering the legacy edition of FIFA? They offered more support to the Wii U. Nintendo need to be aggressive with their courting of third-parties, just like Microsoft did over ten years ago with the 360.
You talk about how excited your Xbox-loving boyf is for the Switch and that is great, but what is he going to play after Breath of the Wild? Is he going to wait two months to play a three year old game like Mario Kart 8? And even if Nintendo had that third party support, the games would still run better on the Xbone (or PS 4), so why is he so excited for the Switch? So he can play on a system with a significantly smaller library that plays at a lower frame rate/resolution? Outside of first-party software, the Switch is all but redundant, just like the Wii U. Oh, and let's not forget that you have to pay a premium price for the Switch. How many of us here are wii U owners paying well in excess of $400 to play Zelda and then Mario Kart 8 a couple of months later?
The best Nintendo could do, would be if at E3 they had a huge third-party presentation featuring all the biggest publishers/developers and all the big games that are coming to Xbone/PS4 were also announced for Switch. That is the best they could hope for. To have the same as the competition with noticeably less performance. But they won't even achieve that.


Isn't that only a rumor? I thought EA (or someone within EA) rejected that notion, and it's not yet proven to be the legacy edition.


Nintendo Switch will get a “custom built” version of FIFA 18 (http://stevivor.com/consoles/ps-4/nintendo-switch-will-get-custom-built-version-fifa-18/)

I have a negative outlook on third party support as well, but I'm cautiously optimistic that if the Switch even sells half as well as the Wii during its first year that we will see a sudden uptick in support from western third parties. Will that mean ports of FFXV, RE7, and ME:A? I still think that's unlikely, but we should see some other titles like Madden, NBA Live, Assassins Creed, etc.

I consider those tempered expectations, but assuming that "kind of support" doesn't enthuse you I'd also like to suggest that Switch would see focused support where titles arrive first on Switch with timed exclusivity before arriving on other platforms--I'm thinking about titles like a FFVI remake where Switch would be perceived as the ideal platform and assuming it's successful they would offer it to an expanded audience (ie. Steam, PS4). That's where my hope is.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on February 11, 2017, 01:35:29 PM
If the Switch is getting any sort of strong third party support, it's going to be from Japanese developers that want to reignite the console scene in Japan.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on February 11, 2017, 01:54:56 PM
Isn't that only a rumor? I thought EA (or someone within EA) rejected that notion, and it's not yet proven to be the legacy edition.


Nintendo Switch will get a “custom built” version of FIFA 18 (http://stevivor.com/consoles/ps-4/nintendo-switch-will-get-custom-built-version-fifa-18/)

I'm really hoping the fact that they're custom building it means they're going to want to recoup some of that effort and we get more than one iteration of it on the system this time. The version we got at the Wii U launch was really good, I reviewed it for the site and gave it a 9, but that was the only one the system ever got.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on February 11, 2017, 04:25:14 PM
Either Switch is sold out or I can walk into a store and grab one. Which is it people?
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: nickmitch on February 11, 2017, 05:18:50 PM
Well, the Wii was a certified hit, and you couldn't then.

The Wii U was a certified miss, and you couldn't for a while.

The Switch has potential to be a hit with Nintendo focusing on keeping production high but still being Nintendo.

So it could go either way.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on February 11, 2017, 05:21:44 PM
There's a million of them!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Phil on February 11, 2017, 05:25:08 PM
Well, the Wii was a certified hit, and you couldn't then.

The Wii U was a certified miss, and you couldn't for a while.

The Switch has potential to be a hit with Nintendo focusing on keeping production high but still being Nintendo.

So it could go either way.

For the Wii U, we were able to pick one up in the December a few weeks before Christmas following the launch at a local Best Buy with an abundant supply. Anecdotal evidence, but I remember it was quite easy to find.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Agent-X- on February 11, 2017, 05:39:39 PM
Well, the Wii was a certified hit, and you couldn't then.

The Wii U was a certified miss, and you couldn't for a while.

The Switch has potential to be a hit with Nintendo focusing on keeping production high but still being Nintendo.

So it could go either way.

For the Wii U, we were able to pick one up in the December a few weeks before Christmas following the launch at a local Best Buy with an abundant supply. Anecdotal evidence, but I remember it was quite easy to find.


Same story for me. From a local Walmart. The Wii U was not hard to find in early December.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: nickmitch on February 12, 2017, 12:35:52 PM
Well, the Wii was a certified hit, and you couldn't then.

The Wii U was a certified miss, and you couldn't for a while.

The Switch has potential to be a hit with Nintendo focusing on keeping production high but still being Nintendo.

So it could go either way.

For the Wii U, we were able to pick one up in the December a few weeks before Christmas following the launch at a local Best Buy with an abundant supply. Anecdotal evidence, but I remember it was quite easy to find.


Same story for me. From a local Walmart. The Wii U was not hard to find in early December.

Really? Wow. I don't think I got one until February?  Even then it was the last one on the shelf.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Mop it up on February 12, 2017, 01:37:53 PM
I guess it depends on region. Around here, the Wii U launch was sold out until January. It's why I argue that the Wii U did have a successful launch, as it sold around 3 million units during those first six weeks or so. It was everything following launch that was a disaster.

As far as third-party support goes... It's been over 20 years now. They're not coming back.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on February 12, 2017, 04:54:34 PM
Around here, the Wii U launch was sold out until January. It's why I argue that the Wii U did have a successful launch, as it sold around 3 million units during those first six weeks or so.


Nintendo consoles will always have the added push at launch thanks to having a select die-hard following (us, I suppose.)

Quote
As far as third-party support goes... It's been over 20 years now. They're not coming back.


You could make a case for the DS and Wii having pretty strong third party support.


Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on February 12, 2017, 05:19:42 PM
Yes, but as more intelligent and better-informed individuals would argue, the DS and Wii only had shovelware, not actual support.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on February 12, 2017, 05:26:02 PM
Gamecube had low volume third party support, but high quality third party support.

Wii had for the first few years high volume third party support, but medium quality.

Wii U had high quality third party support, but not a high volume. It died completely after year 2.

As far as third parties go. Nintendo has a stable of support, but it isn't always AAA. Sometimes developers start off as indies and become AAA. Usually under Nintendo's wings.

Lets take Bomberman for instance. Everyone is in #FuckKonami mode. On the other hand most people are fickle masses and don't realize Bomberman is a Hudson game. Hudson is/was? a subsidiary of Konami.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: nickmitch on February 12, 2017, 05:27:09 PM
Yes, but as more intelligent and better-informed individuals would argue, the DS and Wii only had shovelware, not actual support.

That's a pretty harsh assessment.  I would say it's they only got mostly shovelware.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Mop it up on February 12, 2017, 05:29:56 PM
The Wii barely got any of the same games as the other consoles, which is what people typically mean with the general term of "third-party support."

The DS is a handheld and is a different market than consoles. It of course didn't get the same games as consoles did.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on February 12, 2017, 05:39:46 PM
It had weird third party support. Capcom put like every old Resident Evil game on Wii. It even put Dead Rising on the Wii. A strange version of Dead Rising that was chainsaw oriented, and had no jump.

Most third parties should realize games that contain Zombies sell well on all systems.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Agent-X- on February 12, 2017, 06:19:44 PM
The Wii barely got any of the same games as the other consoles, which is what people typically mean with the general term of "third-party support."

The DS is a handheld and is a different market than consoles. It of course didn't get the same games as consoles did.


I'm one of those people who says the Wii got nothing but shovelware. When I say it, I mean the Wii literally got next to nothing I actually want. There were very few third party games released that I wanted.


When I look at my bookshelf, I do see that I own quite a few Wii games, but guess how many of those I want to play again. Zero. Because the jaggies hurt to look at. I'd rather play Gamecube games. Less jaggies.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on February 12, 2017, 06:25:32 PM
Yes, but as more intelligent and better-informed individuals would argue, the DS and Wii only had shovelware, not actual support.

For the Wii, most definitely. For the DS, I don't quite agree with that assessment.

Sure, there was some shovelware of some developers trying to cash-in on the Brain Age or Touch Generations brand of gaming or he Imagine series but for the most part, third parties did a pretty good job developing for the DS and created a lot of new content for it. Trauma Center, Phoenix Wright, and 999 are some of the 3rd party offerings that made the DS such a worthwhile system. It is thanks to 3rd parties that established the DS line as an RPG powerhouse which has continued into the 3DS era. Etrian Odyssey, Shin Megami Tensei, The World Ends With You, Radiant Historia, Infinite Space, and Dragon Quest IX are just some of the third party titles that delivered on the DS. There are other games where you mileage may vary when it comes to appeal but Feel The Magic, Scribblenauts, various Harvest Moon and Rune Factory titles, Cooking Mama, Touch Detective, Sonic Rush titles, or MegaMan ZX games all help give the DS a unique identity thanks to 3rd party titles.

The interesting thing about the DS is that although it did get a lot of shovelware (a platform doesn't have over 1800 games on it without a lot of them being shovelware), that shovelware has pretty much faded away or never really did much to harm the console since there was so much worthwhile content on it from Nintendo and 3rd parties unlike the Wii in which all 3rd party support was pretty much considered shovelware and 3rd parties sabotaged themselves with it all. When it comes to the DS, it shouldn't be hard for any gamer to make a list of 100 titles they'd want to own and play. Heck, if time and money were of no concern, I'd think a person could even get up to 150 - 200 games that they'd be willing to try and own. While the majority of those games may not be entries on a greatest games of all times list, they'll probably be good enough or interesting enough to warrant playing or appeal to a person's type of gaming personality.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on February 12, 2017, 07:06:20 PM
Yes, but as more intelligent and better-informed individuals would argue, the DS and Wii only had shovelware, not actual support.

That's a pretty harsh assessment.  I would say it's they only got mostly shovelware.


It's a real shame that some people choose to focus on the mountains of shovelware both consoles got because there are some (and by some I mean quite a lot of) truly excellent third-party games on each system.



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Mop it up on February 12, 2017, 07:52:24 PM
Shovelware exists on any successful platform. The PS1 and PS2 have far more of it than Nintendo's systems. And of course, in recent times we have smartphones with mounds of it, plus Steam has started to get clogged with it.

If you swap out "Wii" for "DS" in Khushrenada's statements, that's how I feel about the Wii. I currently have 215 Wii games which means a majority are third-party, and there are some more I wouldn't mind having. I'm a few games shy of 100 on DS, but there's not much more I want on it.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on February 23, 2017, 05:53:09 PM
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: nickmitch on February 23, 2017, 10:44:54 PM
Hard hitting journalism right there.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Soren on February 23, 2017, 10:53:19 PM
I wear skinny jeans. My iPhone barely fits in my pocket.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: nickmitch on February 23, 2017, 10:54:19 PM
Yeah, I'd imagine skinny jeans would be a no-go.

Should be good for my chinos though.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on February 24, 2017, 03:59:46 AM
The problem I have with keeping the Switch in my pocket is that I like to keep my consoles immaculate and I don't see that happening if I put it in my pocket. I've ordered a little case thing, so i'll just keep it in there.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Fatty The Hutt on February 24, 2017, 05:22:45 PM
I've ordered a little case thing, so i'll just keep it in there.
It's called a man-purse.
Murse, for short.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on March 02, 2017, 07:03:43 PM
It's Switchmas Eve and we are about to start the journey of discovery. Before we do, I'd just like to take a moment to double down on my predication regarding the Switch's success. These past couple of months have only served to solidify my belief that... the Switch can not compete with mobile phones in the portable gaming market, it is too under powered to compete with MS/Sony in the home gaming market, there is precious little third party support, it (plus games/accessories) is way too expensive, Nintendo have massively failed to capitalise on their IP library and the final product is very poor value for money.


I had fairly low expectations for the Switch, yet somehow Nintendo has managed to sail completely under them.


There are changes that could be made to give the Switch a fighting chance, however the people running Nintendo continue to show that they are absolutely clueless when it comes to running a successful company so I hold out little hope for them turning it around.


I hope Nintendo has a strong E3.


I hope if the Switch performs as badly as I think it will, it will lead to drastic changes in who is running Nintendo and how the company is run. Fortunately Nintendo has enough capital that even if the Switch fails they can still continue making consoles and games.


The one variable that could throw my predication off is... Pokemon. If Nintendo restrict Pokemon to the Switch, it could significantly boost sales (from 15-m to 25+m), but they may also realise that there is more money to be made by shifting Pokemon to mobile devices.


It will be an interesting 24 months (we should know conclusively by then, if not sooner), and I for one will be playing the Switch throughout that time, I just don't expect many others to be doing so also.




Obligatory gloat: I called the Switch's demise in 2016. The signs were all there, I was the only here who was capable of reading them.




 
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on March 02, 2017, 07:14:48 PM
Oh my god, just shut up already. I don't even care that you're pessimistic about the Switch, there are valid reasons to feel that way right now, but you could do it without being a complete asshole.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: pokepal148 on March 02, 2017, 08:48:59 PM
I'm not a Hater but I'd like to take this time to gloat about how I've been a Hater since 2016.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on March 02, 2017, 09:02:44 PM
Oh god it's all crashing down before my eyes, mere hours before release.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on March 02, 2017, 09:03:33 PM
I predicted Ouya was going to fail. I still bought one. It was fun while it lasted.

I don't think I would have got into Unity and back into programming if it wasn't for the Ouya.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Evan_B on March 02, 2017, 09:29:04 PM
Does anyone think Zelda is gonna fail? I mean, Neal gave it a 9.5 and that's worse than Epic Yarn. If a Zelda game can't beat Epic Yarn, I just don't know anymore. I can't trust literally every other news outlet, either. The signs are all coming together!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: nickmitch on March 02, 2017, 10:08:45 PM
Anything less than a metascore of 100 means absolute failure.  Neal saw to that with his "9.5".  He knew what he was doing.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Ian Sane on March 02, 2017, 11:27:03 PM
I don't like to gloat about negative predictions because those are usually situations where I want to be wrong.  In my life in general, not just Nintendo stuff which is pretty unimportant in the grand scheme of things, I'm frustratingly good at recognizing the first signs that everything is going to **** and then being right about my prediction.  But that's not something to brag about, that's like a curse.

I really like the idea of the Switch in theory but right now Zelda is all it seems to have going for it.  I was never going to buy it because after numerous underperforming consoles I don't trust Nintendo to support them right off the bat at full price.  But I honestly would say that since I own a Wii U and can play Zelda on it, I wouldn't see any point in buying a Switch at launch even if I had a really enthusiastic attitude about Nintendo.

So here is really weird situation where the system seems to have a lot of problems and is arguably being released in an unfinished state... and it launches with a game that is getting such positive reviews that it will be in the discussion as one of the greatest games every made.  So how much does having the ultimate killer app make up for shortcomings in almost every other area?  Can the Switch overcome all of this on the strength of one game?  Sounds hard... but Nintendo pretty much did that already with the Wii.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 03, 2017, 01:07:47 AM
Does anyone think Zelda is gonna fail? I mean, Neal gave it a 9.5 and that's worse than Epic Yarn. If a Zelda game can't beat Epic Yarn, I just don't know anymore. I can't trust literally every other news outlet, either. The signs are all coming together!

Yeah but aren't 95% of games released worse than Epic Yarn? Epic Yarn has been the industry standard for so long now because it is such a high bar to clear. Even though a game like BotW may not be able to reach its heights, I think we should still appreciate a game that, while obviously lacking in many ways, will still have an hour or two worth playing in it and celebrate those few moments even if we wish that we were playing Kirby instead.

Obligatory gloat: I called the Switch's demise in 2016. The signs were all there, I was the only here who was capable of reading them.

Dude, there have been a lot of other people who predicted Nintendo's failure all the way back in 1991. It took you 25 years to piece it together? That's nothing to gloat about. It's a sign that you need to learn to read signs faster.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on March 03, 2017, 01:29:35 AM
If Yooka Laylee comes out in April or May will it seem like the system is so bad? I know it's not an exclusive, but when you put Mario, Zelda, and the successor to Banjo Kazooie, then you have a really solid first 9 months.

Bonus to all the indie games like Fast RMX, Snake Pass, and then AAA games like Skyrim.

Then you got Splatoon 2, and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for all those people who never bought a Wii U.

If I were a betting man there might be ports of Monster Hunter and Resident Evil on the way for Christmas.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Luigi Dude on March 03, 2017, 02:14:28 AM
So here is really weird situation where the system seems to have a lot of problems and is arguably being released in an unfinished state... and it launches with a game that is getting such positive reviews that it will be in the discussion as one of the greatest games every made.  So how much does having the ultimate killer app make up for shortcomings in almost every other area?  Can the Switch overcome all of this on the strength of one game?  Sounds hard... but Nintendo pretty much did that already with the Wii.

Well I just got back from Wal-Mart with Breath of the Wild.  There was over a dozen people in line in front of me, and all of them except one bought the Switch and Zelda.  Now there was a few people behind me, but I was the only person there when I left that bought the Wii U version of Breath of the Wild.

So based on just the store I was at, Breath of the Wild has an over 90% attachment ratio with the system.  So yeah, that pretty much shows how the public views Breath of the Wild.  Outside of the insanely hardcore Nintendo fanboys like myself that actually bought a Wii U and have no problem waiting to buy a Switch since we can still play Zelda on the Wii U, everyone else wants a Switch for Zelda.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: pokepal148 on March 03, 2017, 03:50:20 AM
Does anyone think Zelda is gonna fail? I mean, Neal gave it a 9.5 and that's worse than Epic Yarn. If a Zelda game can't beat Epic Yarn, I just don't know anymore. I can't trust literally every other news outlet, either. The signs are all coming together!

Yeah but aren't 95% of games released worse than Epic Yarn? Epic Yarn has been the industry standard for so long now because it is such a high bar to clear. Even though a game like BotW may not be able to reach its heights, I think we should still appreciate a game that, while obviously lacking in many ways, will still have an hour or two worth playing in it and celebrate those few moments even if we wish that we were playing Kirby instead.

Obligatory gloat: I called the Switch's demise in 2016. The signs were all there, I was the only here who was capable of reading them.

Dude, there have been a lot of other people who predicted Nintendo's failure all the way back in 1991. It took you 25 years to piece it together? That's nothing to gloat about. It's a sign that you need to learn to read signs faster.
There are probably people who predicted Nintendo's failure back in the late 1800s when Nintendo was doing trading cards.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on March 03, 2017, 04:20:35 AM
Oh my god, just shut up already. I don't even care that you're pessimistic about the Switch, there are valid reasons to feel that way right now, but you could do it without being a complete asshole.


The (admittedly) bad attitude comes purely from me making a rational prediction based on clear evidence and then being roundly disparaged for it just because it didn't fit in with what people here wanted to happen. The gloating comes from the fact that a number of people here (yourself included) have shifted from calls of "you're wrong, you're wrong" to "OK, you might be right but shut up". If you had a bit of backbone or basic humility to hold your hands up and say "Hey, it looks like you might be right", I wouldn't feel the need to come here and point out the fact.
 
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on March 03, 2017, 04:23:47 AM
I predicted Ouya was going to fail. I still bought one. It was fun while it lasted.



This is how I feel about the Switch. I've got one on the way right now.



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on March 03, 2017, 04:28:53 AM

Dude, there have been a lot of other people who predicted Nintendo's failure all the way back in 1991. It took you 25 years to piece it together? That's nothing to gloat about. It's a sign that you need to learn to read signs faster.


Anyone who predicted Nintendo's failure in 1991 would have been quite wrong. In the the time between now and then, the company has enjoyed enormous success and has sold well in excess of 300 million portable and home consoles. I am talking specifically about the Nintendo Switch. There is a very big  difference, although I accept that this does somewhat diminish the point you are hoping to make.



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on March 03, 2017, 05:33:33 AM
I don't like to gloat about negative predictions because those are usually situations where I want to be wrong.  In my life in general, not just Nintendo stuff which is pretty unimportant in the grand scheme of things, I'm frustratingly good at recognizing the first signs that everything is going to **** and then being right about my prediction.  But that's not something to brag about, that's like a curse.


Just to be perfectly clear (in case it wasn't obvious), my gloating is not so much based on me being right, and it certainly isn't at Nintendo doing poorly, it's at so many people in this thread giving me a hard time and then being about to be proven wrong. The gloating could have been entirely avoided if people in this thread had not been so antagonistic and then so silent when they started to see what I have seen for a good few months now.


I'm not punching the air with joy at Nintendo making bad decisions. I really want them to succeed, I can't stress that enough, but they have to start doing things right first.



Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on March 03, 2017, 06:22:10 AM
I predicted Ouya was going to fail. I still bought one. It was fun while it lasted.



This is how I feel about the Switch. I've got one on the way right now.


I have to say though, that unlike the Ouya the Switch has a behemoth of a company behind it. Julie Uhrman had no idea what she was doing.

If I were to talk about the history of Wii U and why people weren't interested in it...the thing I heard most was "well, the Wii U looks interesting, but I'm not going to buy it until Zelda comes out"

The Zelda game is finally out. But I don't think it's going to sell mainly Wii Us. I think a big reason why the Wii U didn't sell that well is there was a whole lot less value in the system. There wasn't any big draw titles.

Switch has been out for 3 hours and it already sold 16% of Wii Us total sales. To make a comparison it took Wii U six weeks to sale 890,000 units.

But lets forget about that. This thing is a handheld.
3DS 65 million so far (5 year span)
DS 154 Million  (12 year span)
GBA 81 Million
GameBoy 118 Million.

I think people should really consider Nintendo in the realm of handhelds in the same realm as Sony in consoles in sales. And it may not seem like it now, but once all the teams drop what their doing on 3ds there is going to be a lot more games coming.

and Pokémon. The implications. Think about it. A new 3d pokemon game comes out from the middle of nowhere with some features that surprise everyone. Sony and Microsoft look around, what do they see? Nothing but blue ocean. Their market just gets gobbled by the PC and steam machines “Oh, there’s nowhere for me to run, what am I gonna do, copy Nintendo?”

Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: rygar on March 03, 2017, 11:18:52 AM
Lol! Did you short the stock or plan on doing it at some point? If the market follows your predictions from Switch failure to massive dongle/mobile platform success, you could make huge money both ways if you play it right. That would be a lot better then (premature) gloating.

the Switch can not compete with mobile phones in the portable gaming market

Is there a viable market for a dedicated gaming tablet? I'm interested as a consumer because I really want a new line of those types of devices and I am hoping the Switch demonstrates at least a niche demand. Rather than a dongle, what about a device a tablet could fit into? Maybe the best case scenario for me would be Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft all offering devices that can supplement a tablet.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Fatty The Hutt on March 03, 2017, 11:35:20 AM
Are all you folks just gonna let this utter talking-out-of-his-ass garbage stand?
Alright fine, I'll tear it down. I gotta do everything for you kids
*grumble grumble*

there is precious little third party support
Yup, nothin' to get on the doomed Switch (http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2017/03/guide_nintendo_switch_launch_games_and_release_dates_2017)
Nuthin' at all (http://ca.ign.com/wikis/nintendo-switch/Nintendo_Switch_Games)

Nintendo have massively failed to capitalise on their IP library
Yeah they don't know what the **** they're doing with their IP (https://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2017/03/03/zelda-breath-of-the-wild-is-now-one-of-the-best-reviewed-games-in-history/#76ef715a4910)
not at all (http://www.metacritic.com/game/switch/the-legend-of-zelda-breath-of-the-wild)

Nintendo continue to show that they are absolutely clueless when it comes to running a successful company
Can't argue with that (https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:KyDkhKBnvYIJ:https://www.ft.com/content/f12635ec-ffba-11e6-8d8e-a5e3738f9ae4+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ca)
you are clearly right (http://mashable.com/2016/07/19/nintendo-worth-more-than-sony/#1q5r5eeOrOqW)
 
Obligatory gloat: I called the Switch's demise in 2016. The signs were all there, I was the only here who was capable of reading them.

I think Insanolord speaks for all of us when he says

Oh my god, just shut up already.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Nemo on March 03, 2017, 11:48:41 AM
Even if it fails by whatever metrics you want to use (sales compared to Sony or Microsoft, sales compared to other Nintendo systems), if it has lots of fun games then it succeeds in my heart.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 03, 2017, 01:20:42 PM
There is a very big difference, although I accept that this does somewhat diminish the point you are hoping to make.

Not really. My point was just a tongue-in-cheek comment that there have been plenty of people saying Nintendo will fail for years whether it be with the Sega Genesis coming out or the DS vs PSP first year battle. Although you may be focusing on the Switch only in your prediction, it doesn't change the fact that it's nothing new or shocking. Even when the Switch was unveiled there were still people on other sites complaining about it. You just want to make your prediction more valid by saying you looked at some "evidence" so that your prediction is of greater worth than a kneejerk reaction by some anti-Nintendo fanboy on the internet saying the same thing in order to try and lord it over other people that also predicted a Switch failure.

But the capital of Mexico is Mexico City. If someone asks you what the capital of Mexico is and you look it up on Google, consult maps of the world, check it out in an encyclopedia, read through the entire history of Mexico, travel to Mexico City to see it for yourself and interview thousands of Mexicans to make sure before finally answering that it is Mexico City based on the evidence you have collected, it doesn't make the answer any less valid than someone who may guess "Uh..Mexico.... City?". It's still the same correct answer.

However, the difference in that illustration is that it is very easy to know Mexico City is the capital of Mexico because it is a fact that has been established for decades. You, however, are gloating on something that has still yet to be proven. It's the first day the Switch is even available for sale to the public but you act and talk like its the end of the Switch's lifespan and your hypothesis is fact. It's still a bloody unproven guess. Gee, why do other users get upset with my prediction of Switch failure? I guess they're too sensitive and blinded by their Nintendo love. That has to be the answer and not at all because there is still no actual sales proof to my claim. Quit jumping the gun. If you want to gloat, wait a year or two when you've got real evidence. That's why no one is taking you seriously and are getting pissed off at your "gloats". In your desire to declare yourself First to Predict the Switch Will Fail prize (which has absolutely no value at all), you keep harping on your claim like its fact while also stating that in "24 months (we should know conclusively by then, if not sooner)" acknowledging that nothing has been proven yet so why do you feel the need to keep acting like it is fact?

I like how you try to really emphasize how "genius" you are. You predicted the Switch would fail all the way back in 2016 like it was a year ago you came up with this idea. Well, it was Dec. 4, 2016 when you created this thread. So, just under three months ago at this point. I guess way back in 2016 sounds sexier than three months ago. To hedge your bets, you give yourself an out that if Pokémon is released on the system than it will be a success. Moreover, what is failure? Is it strictly in sales only that you are judging this? GameCube was considered a failure because of its sales yet these days it seems to be judged as more of a success due to its game library. So, even if Switch doesn't sell well, if the games released for it are good, there are still going to be people arguing your claim of the Switch as a failure. Even the Wii U gets some love from people on here as being a top Nintendo system despite its failure in the number of systems sold.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 03, 2017, 01:54:26 PM
The (admittedly) bad attitude comes purely from me making a rational prediction based on clear evidence and then being roundly disparaged for it just because it didn't fit in with what people here wanted to happen. The gloating comes from the fact that a number of people here (yourself included) have shifted from calls of "you're wrong, you're wrong" to "OK, you might be right but shut up". If you had a bit of backbone or basic humility to hold your hands up and say "Hey, it looks like you might be right", I wouldn't feel the need to come here and point out the fact.

Oh my mistake. You're Forum Jesus here to shine your light of truth on these forums and getting persecuted for it. You just wanted to teach us a moral lesson on humility and humbleness. I totally see it now. Also, isn't backbone usually when someone stands up to a blowhard and is against their opinion by saying no, you're wrong and not agreeing with the blowhard and saying ok, guess I'll follow your lead? Seems to me Insanolord is showing backbone and has been pretty humble about it in that he hasn't felt the need to keep bringing up his opinion and bumping this thread unlike another less humble forum user here.

Just to be perfectly clear (in case it wasn't obvious), my gloating is not so much based on me being right,

No, that part was obvious since you have yet to be proven right.

Quote
and it certainly isn't at Nintendo doing poorly, it's at so many people in this thread giving me a hard time and then being about to be proven wrong.

In what way are they being proven wrong? Because, at the moment, the Switch is selling.

Quote
The gloating could have been entirely avoided if people in this thread had not been so antagonistic and then so silent when they started to see what I have seen for a good few months now.

Yes, how dare other people have an opinion different from you and argue against your speculations. Even worse, they didn't have the gall to try and keep gloating that they felt right about their opinion that the Switch can succeed while you kept gloating that it would fail even though it hadn't even been released yet. Isn't it awful how other people can feel they are right on a matter yet they keep silent because there isn't much else to say without any concrete facts to back up either side on the matter? They should be declaring victory anyways instead of acting like reasonable individuals. Silence can only equal defeat.

It reminds me of MysticGohan who predicted the Switch would have AMD chips instead of Nvidia. He kept bringing it up over and over because he thought he was right and had looked up and pointed to various evidence that he thought proved his point. The rest of the forum got tired of arguing with him over it because it was just speculation and he clearly wasn't changing his mind on the matter. Didn't mean other users suddenly thought he was right or that they realized they were wrong. There was just no reason to further the conversation or argument because it was just guesswork and there was nothing concrete to add. When the specs were finally released and there were actual facts, it turns out MysticGohan was wrong despite his being so sure he'd be right. To me, you seem to be headed down the same path.

Of what value is it to keep arguing with you? In this thread, there have been plenty of occasions where people have brought forth reasons for disagreeing with you. None of those changed or swayed your mind just like your speculation didn't sway people of the opposite opinion. Why keep talking to a brick wall? Might as well just stay silent and do something better with our time. You, however, seem unable to accept that silence and want more attention focused on you so you feel the need to keep bringing up this thread and your prediction and then act all high and mighty when people still disagree with you. That's why people are antagonistic to you. It's not just because of your prediction but on the personality you put forth through your posts on these forums.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on March 03, 2017, 01:58:15 PM
Oh my god, just shut up already. I don't even care that you're pessimistic about the Switch, there are valid reasons to feel that way right now, but you could do it without being a complete asshole.


The (admittedly) bad attitude comes purely from me making a rational prediction based on clear evidence and then being roundly disparaged for it just because it didn't fit in with what people here wanted to happen. The gloating comes from the fact that a number of people here (yourself included) have shifted from calls of "you're wrong, you're wrong" to "OK, you might be right but shut up". If you had a bit of backbone or basic humility to hold your hands up and say "Hey, it looks like you might be right", I wouldn't feel the need to come here and point out the fact.
 

I don't think anyone was definitively saying you were wrong, just that it was (and still is) way too early to be talking about this as if anything was definitive. You were acting like it was completely dead and done before it even came out, which is as obnoxious as it is premature.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Miyamoto on March 03, 2017, 07:09:28 PM
Thank you for taking the time to reply but these really are too wordy to read through let alone reply to, so I'm just going to assume that you've all made some very good points. Well done. Oh, except the delusional poster who tried to argue that the Switch had decent third party support. I mean, c'mon dude. No. But to the others, honestly, thanks for taking part. Do try not to take it all too seriously though.


I'll probably come back to this thread periodically as news regarding how well the Switch is doing starts to trickle through.


In the meantime, I now have a Switch of my own. The hardware has actually exceeded my expectations and the first hour of Breath of the Wild is, of course, superb. My only gripes thus far are: the placement of the plus/minus buttons and the fact that it is very bare-bones at the mo, although this will of course be fixed in time. Oh, also I love how easy it is the switch [click] between my European and Japanese accounts.


Please feel free to keep posting comments on this thread. It would be a shame for it to disappear. So until next time... Happy Switch Day!!!!!!


Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Fatty The Hutt on March 03, 2017, 07:25:10 PM
Thank you for taking the time to reply but these really are too wordy to read through let alone reply to, so I'm just going to assume that you've all made some very good points. Well done.
But you're not going to read them cuz they're too wordy. Or maybe you're afraid of the content? I'd lay some money on the latter.

Oh, except the delusional poster who tried to argue that the Switch had decent third party support.
Oh, so you did read some of it. Alright, any rebuttal?

I mean, c'mon dude. No.
That's it?
**slow clap**
Brilliant, dude. Your sheer ass-hattery is complete. Kudos.

Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on March 03, 2017, 08:45:21 PM
Doing what I should have done three months ago.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 05, 2018, 02:00:54 AM
Speaking of the Switch's 1 year anniversary, let's never forget Miya"Mr.Correct"moto who knew exactly how the Switch's first year was going to play out. He correctly figured it out 3 months before the Switch launch.

Obligatory gloat: I called the Switch's demise in 2016. The signs were all there, I was the only here who was capable of reading them.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 05, 2018, 02:03:48 AM
I don't think the Nintendo Switch will be a success. I think third-party support will be non-existent... I think people looking for a home console will favour the PS4/Xbox One and I think people looking for mobile gaming will favour their phones. I think the Switch will struggle to reach 15 million lifetime sales

(http://favoritememes.com/_nw/4/09510100.jpg)
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 05, 2018, 02:13:24 AM
It reminds of when Kimishima was interviewed by the Wall Street journal shortly after the Switch announcement. They asked him why he thought Nintendo's shares had dropped 8% following the reveal and he had no answer. He was genuinely baffled. These people really can't see the problems ahead and are doomed to make similar mistakes that they did with the Wii U. The future of mobile gaming IS mobile phones. If Nintendo wanted to do well in the mobile market they should release a bluetooth controller for $20 that holds the phone and distribute games that way. Yes they have to give a slice of the profits to Apple/Android but at least there's profits to share. This will not be a widely used portable gaming console, so what does that leave? An underpowered home console with added manufacturing costs and weak third party support. Wake up people! The breadcrumbs are so close together on this one, how can you not see the way this is going to go?

[bold and italics my addition]

Wake up Sheeple!!! Follow the money!

(https://i.imgur.com/WYmdKdd.png)
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 05, 2018, 02:31:06 AM
We get it, you are right, Nintendo is doomed.


I may remember you favourably, my child, when the gloating doth commence.

Oh crap! You better run and hide now, Evan_B!!! You're in a world of pain! Miyamoto's about to drop the gloat bomb on you!

(http://www.octanecreative.com/Parodyville/duck_and_cover/duck-and-cover.jpg)

Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 03, 2020, 05:11:49 PM
I don't think the Nintendo Switch will be a success. I think third-party support will be non-existent and even though Nintendo already has a library of thousands of games over three decades, they will choose to either not make it all readily available or charge too much for it. I think people looking for a home console will favour the PS4/Xbox One and I think people looking for mobile gaming will favour their phones. I think the Switch will struggle to reach 15 million lifetime sales and in five years Nintendo will release a new console which is essentially a super stripped down dongle for $80 that has media services and budget gaming (which by then will be fine) and an IOS/Android phone suite for mobile gaming.

Well, it is now another year of the Switch on the market and another year of Miyamoto gloating at us all for not seeing the complete failure the Switch has been like he was able to before it released. All hail Miyamoto who put it so succinctly:

Obligatory gloat: I called the Switch's demise in 2016. The signs were all there, I was the only here who was capable of reading them.

If only we or Nintendo had listened to him. Instead we must now suffer our yearly shame of Miyamoto's "I Told You So"s because, as the new Reggie, his predictions kicked ass and he took our names....

If you had a bit of backbone or basic humility to hold your hands up and say "Hey, it looks like you might be right", I wouldn't feel the need to come here and point out the fact.


What were we thinking......
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Mop it up on March 03, 2020, 05:25:18 PM
I think it might be time to let this go and move on.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 03, 2020, 08:29:28 PM
Hey now! I'm not the villain of this thread.  >:(  Plus, I didn't even bump it last year.  :-[  ;)
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on March 03, 2020, 08:39:19 PM
I, for one, appreciate Khush being this petty. I'd forgotten all about this thread and seeing it bumped gave me a good chuckle.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 04, 2021, 12:00:51 AM
It's March 3rd so you know what that means!!!!

Thread bump time. (Although some people may disagree about doing so.)

I think it might be time to let this go and move on.

However, I think it is just because people like that above poster don't want other users to re-read this thread and see all their failed predictions like:

it's hard for me to envision the Switch selling well.

And:

As far as third-party support goes... It's been over 20 years now. They're not coming back.

Perhaps you shouldn't have been a hater! Then people wouldn't be able to look at your past comments and see how wrong you are today! When looking back at these Switch predications, I think those may be some of the most anti-Switch success comments in the whole thing.  ;)

But seriously, if people don't like me bumping this thread and posting in it then please contact the original poster of this thread, Miyamoto, because I'm only doing what he asked us to do.

Please feel free to keep posting comments on this thread. It would be a shame for it to disappear. So until next time... Happy Switch Day!!!!!!

No problem, boss. I'll do my part to make sure it doesn't disappear!  ;D
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 04, 2021, 12:30:41 AM
It's incredible to look back and see how poorly people saw this whole Switch fiasco playing out. I mean, I'm just cherry picking at this point but look at this dude trying to counter the argument of why the Switch will flop:

The only way the Switch does that bad is if Nintendo ... refuses to drop the price for 4 years like they did with the Wii U.

Well, here we are 4 years later and what's the price of a Switch?! What's that? It's still the same price as WHEN IT LAUNCHED?!? So, you're telling me Nintendo pulled another Wii U and didn't lower the price of the system even after 4 years on the market? Who does that?! What a greedy company! You wouldn't see Sony launch a Playstation 4 Pro and then keep it at the same sell price 4 years later. No wonder people won't buy a Switch when Nintendo refuses to meet the demands of the market by lowering the price of the Switch.

I think that Nintendo ended up regretting the low Wii launch price. Knowing what an evidently greedy company they are, I bet they wished they raised the Wii price by at least $50 at launch, failing to take into account that it was precisely the low price point that helped sell the console. This is probably why the 3DS and Wii U were so overly priced at launch.


I had no idea what the price would be when I predicted the demise of the Switch back in December, but I assumed $250 at the most. The $300 price tag only cements the console's doom. I can't feel too bad for Nintendo though, because all of this was entirely avoidable. You would think that a multi-billion dollar company would employ some people with a bit of basic common sense at the top.

Oh, good! At least someone gets it! Man, if only Nintendo listened to the basic common sense of this guy instead of relying on their internal teams of marketing and research with business degrees and experience on how to sell the Switch. How come it is so hard for people to ignore the recommendations of those with actual qualifications instead of listening to people without any, ignoring their "common sense" which could have solved everything?
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 04, 2021, 12:55:09 AM
And then there's this "prediction"...

To me, that's more than enough to push it over 15 million sales. Nintendo might get that in Switch's first year.

*Angry buzzer sound* WRONG!! Nintendo only got around 14 million Switchs sold in its first year. What a maroon! Maybe next time try and stay within reality when making a prediction. Like here's an example of someone who made a prediction way closer to reality because they based it on cold, hard logic:

I think Nintendo will definitely sell through their launch allotment (2 million) by the end of March, but I also think a year later in March 2018 Nintendo will be lucky if they're at 5 million.

Now that's nailing it!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 04, 2021, 01:13:14 AM
I mean granted I'm by no means an expert ... Given Nintendo's track record with things like N64, GameCube, Wii U wouldn't something in the 30-40 mill frame make more sense? I don't know if it's really going to take off like Wii did to be honest.

Don't worry! From that prediction, it's pretty obvious to all that you are not an expert.

BURN!!!

Given Nintendo's track record with things like DS, Wii and GBA, wouldn't something like 100 million make more sense?

(https://i.imgur.com/JmsKCQ4.png?1)


Looks like it would! But someone wanted to be a hater! Not going to take off like the Wii? IT'S BREAKING SALES RECORDS SET BY THE WII! (https://www.nintendoenthusiast.com/npd-august-nintendo-switch-beat-a-hardware-sales-record-set-by-wii-in-2008/)


Miyamoto, show this fool what an expert prediction maker looks like!

this thing is dead on arrival. I'll still be pre-ordering one, but so far, everything is right on track as I predicted...

Who looks foolish now, Discord.RSS?
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 04, 2021, 01:25:38 AM
When we look at price we can see that unlike the Wii U, most likely Switch's price will go down as time goes on. Also, game prices will get cheaper.  2 years from now a $99 switch is going to be really appealing.

Wait, WHAT? Where can I get one of these 2019 $99 Switch consoles? Slashing the price by 66% in two years?! Someone was really hating on the Switch and expecting it to crash and burn over its first two years!

Guys c'mon. The Switch ain't dropping to $99 on 2019.

Get out of here Soren! We don't need no correct predictions in this thread. Let's stick to the crazy talk here!

So, in 2 years there is going to be a  portable console that is $150 to $99. It's going to be loaded with Nintendo games. It'll already be loaded with a bunch of RPG games from third parties. Virtual Console library will have tons of indy games, classic games from 8-bit to present. Any problems with storage will be solved by SDXC.

That's right! Double down on that prediction. Not only will it be $99 but it will even have more features then the launch version of the Switch! ThePerm, what were you thinking?!

I can't think of anyone that would predict Nintendo having a console at $99 would be a super successful strategy!

in five years Nintendo will release a new console which is essentially a super stripped down dongle for $80 that has media services and budget gaming (which by then will be fine) and an IOS/Android phone suite for mobile gaming.

You see! Predicting an $80 dongle is much more realistic. That's how Nintendo will truly profit and become a force in the game industry again.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 04, 2021, 01:26:50 AM
I'm really hoping for whatever Retro is making.

Not really an incorrect prediction. I just feel sorry for Stogi waiting for Retro's first Switch game.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 04, 2021, 01:37:08 AM
To wrap up this trip down memory lane...

I'll probably come back to this thread periodically as news regarding how well the Switch is doing starts to trickle through.

(https://media4.giphy.com/media/9SIXFu7bIUYHhFc19G/giphy-downsized-medium.gif)


Don't get me wrong, I really want the Switch to be a success, and I'd love to be posting here in a couple of years time about how I got it massively wrong, but I find it really hard to be optimistic.

Last Post: Mar. 3, 2017
Last Active: Mar. 5, 2018

I guess he didn't want to be here posting about how he got it massively wrong and is happy the Switch is a success. My god. He spent 3 months posting about how things were going to go for the Switch and himself and he didn't get anything right!!

(https://media.tenor.com/images/d9849222c168c2fb6662af35ac299386/tenor.gif)

Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: MASB on March 04, 2021, 02:45:52 AM
His last post was the day the Switch launched and he last visited two days after its first anniversary. Did its success hit him that hard? In fact, he never logged in again after the first time you brought this topic back to life. :p I would say you drove him away, but I guess he did that to himself. He's just biding his time, waiting for the Switch to fall!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: MASB on March 04, 2021, 02:47:58 AM
Still, you'd think Miyamoto would have had more faith in the Switch. I guess he spent too much time listening to Ishihara from The Pokemon Company!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Mop it up on March 04, 2021, 12:38:10 PM
That first comment wasn't a prediction, it was my personal thought about the ho-hum Switch reveal trailer. Things got better after more information was revealed. It's funny how few people around the 'Net saw the Switch coming!

As far as my comment about third-party support however, I'd argue that statement is largely true. The Switch has a similar level of third-party support as the previous few Nintendo systems got, with most new releases skipping the Switch.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Luigi Dude on March 04, 2021, 02:26:10 PM
As far as my comment about third-party support however, I'd argue that statement is largely true. The Switch has a similar level of third-party support as the previous few Nintendo systems got, with most new releases skipping the Switch.

If your talking about AAA games aimed at the West that's mostly true but mid-tier Japanese games and indie titles are a massive improvement over previous systems.  The Switch absorbed the PSP/Vita's audience in Japan which has lead to a major shift in third party support over there.  Outside of the few series that still try to compete with AAA Western devs, almost everything else in Japan has gotten Switch ports.

With indies, the Switch is literally the market leader.  Not only does every major title come to Switch, many are even timed exclusives on the system.  Many indie devs have done nothing but praise the system for giving their games the highest sales as well.  This is a huge step up from the Wii and Wii U which missed out on a large number of indie games.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Mop it up on March 04, 2021, 02:34:54 PM
When people mentioned third-party support, I think the context was the big companies, not indies. These days there are a lot of blurred lines between "third-party" and "indie" so it can sometimes be tough to figure out these generalities. It seemed like the Wii U and 3DS still got a lot of indie stuff so that remains a constant. 3DS and DS still had a fair amount of Japanese support.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: pokepal148 on March 04, 2021, 06:31:34 PM
The 3DS pretty much just had Atlus and Capcom past year two in the west, and I have a hard time believing that either company was putting their best foot forward at that point, largely because the 3DS was so cheap to develop for. Everything else that came over was published by Nintendo in the west as I recall.

But the Switch is getting a bunch of ports of recent-ish games like the Spyro: Reignited Trilogy that nobody ever bothered with for the Wii U or even the Wii.

And even Indies are massively improved. With the Wii U and 3DS there was always a question of whether a game would come to 3DS or Wii U because the non-new 3DS lacked engine support and the Wii U was... the Wii U. Even games that were promised for the Wii U like Project Cars never materialized. With the Switch it is the opposite. If anything it's surprising when a game isn't coming to Switch.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 04, 2021, 10:46:03 PM
His last post was the day the Switch launched and he last visited two days after its first anniversary. Did its success hit him that hard? In fact, he never logged in again after the first time you brought this topic back to life. :p I would say you drove him away, but I guess he did that to himself. He's just biding his time, waiting for the Switch to fall!

Well, to be fair, Insanolord locked this thread after his last post on that March 3rd so he couldn't really reply back in it if he wanted to. That said, I imagine he was lurking for a bit and biding his time for the first couple months after the Switch launch for news to start coming in of the system not selling. Instead, there were reports of NOA shipping in more consoles by Air which was pricier but they needed to meet the huge demand and then that demand never went down. I did bump the thread after the first year but I didn't unlock it like I did now. Perhaps he checked in close to that time and saw that this thread was back up on the top of the forums but decided he didn't want to get a bunch of flak and ridicule like I gave him for a couple posts at that time. Because of his complete absence after all his haughty talk and not sticking around to eat his crow or humble pie after saying he would gladly like that to happen, I've been more willing to keep bumping this thread on the Switch anniversary. However, if he is still out there and checking these boards as a guest then I'll let him know he can one day rest easy and not fear that I'll keep bumping this thread once a Switch 2 (or whatever system Nintendo releases to replace the Switch) comes out on the market because who cares about predictions on a console that's now obsolete.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 04, 2021, 11:03:09 PM
That first comment wasn't a prediction, it was my personal thought about the ho-hum Switch reveal trailer. Things got better after more information was revealed. It's funny how few people around the 'Net saw the Switch coming!

As far as my comment about third-party support however, I'd argue that statement is largely true. The Switch has a similar level of third-party support as the previous few Nintendo systems got, with most new releases skipping the Switch.

Oh, look how the hater's try to justify that their predictions were something else or that they were still right! Move those goalposts instead of admitting you were wrong!!   ;D ;)

I mainly just used those quotes as a way to start the tactic of showing other wrong predictions that still weren't as bad as Miyamoto's. It's obviously some selective quoting to do that. I also agree with you that when I think 3rd Parties, I don't think of Indies. Still, having stuff like Cuphead and the Ori games come to Switch is a big deal considering Microsoft is the one backing those games. To me, that's still a third party get. Having Bethesda support the Switch with Wolfenstein, Doom and Skyrim is a pretty significant thing considering how long they've ignored Nintendo consoles. At the same time, I wasn't expecting Square to release Kingdom Hearts 3 or FFVII remake on Switch nor Rockstar to port GTAV or Red Dead Redemption 2 to the Switch. Some third parties are just going to keep skipping Nintendo based on their own internal decisions and how much effort they want to put in making their stuff work on Nintendo's weaker hardware.

That said, I still thought it was a big deal for Square to release a bunch of older FF games on the Switch along with other offerings like DQ games and Mana games. Seeing BioShock and Borderland games come to a Nintendo console is another unexpected surprise. I get that stuff may not be too impressive now after they were first released years ago but its still good to see these other publishers testing the waters with Switch and seeing they can have sales success on a Nintendo platform. Hopefully it creates positive thinking with third parties to do factor Nintendo into their future plans instead of sticking with the skip it mindset that's been happening for so long.

What big third party games or publishers do you see as signs that third party software has not improved?
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on March 04, 2021, 11:04:58 PM
I forgot to post the most accurate prediction in this thread!

Go ahead and bet against Nintendo. We'll just sit back and watch. And we'll laugh at you if they sell more than 5 million units in the first 12 months.

Congrats Agent-X! You were the real prophet all along.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Mop it up on March 04, 2021, 11:25:56 PM
Hee hee yeah, my initial gut reaction was pretty bad, I usually try to wait until things settle down first. I'm pretty sure I stated that the Wii U would be another runaway success, which was based mostly on pre-orders selling out. Whoops! Admittedly I'm kind of baffled the Switch has sold as well as it has, but I won't get into that.

Third-party and indie stuff has increased sure, but it's still the same types of support Nintendo's been getting. This is straying from the original point anyway, that the context of my original comment in its conversation is still mostly true as Nintendo doesn't have third-party support the way they used to 20+ years ago. Taking that out of context seems to have caused some confusion, but I suspect that was your goal!  :o

Square has supported other successful Nintendo systems with older FF titles like GBA and DS, so I actually wasn't that surprised they supported the successful Switch as well, especially with Sony systems out of the equation. I'm honestly kind of surprised that Activision hasn't tried a Call of Duty game on the Switch, as the Wii got most of them, and even the Wii U and DS got some. Ubisoft seems scared to try some of their "big" games that they tried on Wii U as well, such as Assassin's Creed and Watch Dogs, though I think they may have done a "cloud version" or something of an Assassin's Creed game?

Personally I haven't played and didn't own most of the games Switch gets so I've been pretty happy with it overall.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Adrock on March 04, 2021, 11:45:29 PM
And then there's this "prediction"...

To me, that's more than enough to push it over 15 million sales. Nintendo might get that in Switch's first year.

*Angry buzzer sound* WRONG!! Nintendo only got around 14 million Switchs sold in its first year. What a maroon! Maybe next time try and stay within reality when making a prediction.
I know you’re joking. For context: Not-Miyamoto predicted Switch would struggle to reach 15 million lifetime sales to which I replied it might reach that in its first year. I was pretty close.

That wasn’t even remotely my coldest take on these forums. For example, I vaguely remember stating Wii U should easily outsell GameCube.

Me after launch day vs. literally three months later
(https://i.ibb.co/FD5HMPy/i-am-a-genius.jpg)
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on February 15, 2022, 06:14:09 PM
The recent news of the Switch passing the Wii in lifetime sales made me think of this thread again. There have been a lot of wrong things said on these forums over the years, but this has got to be up there.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on February 15, 2022, 06:31:43 PM
LOL! It's not March 3rd yet! You couldn't wait two weeks for the traditional bump?  ;D
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: NWR_insanolord on February 15, 2022, 07:46:03 PM
I didn't realize it was a tradition. I just thought the Switch officially becoming Nintendo's most successful console ever justified dunking on this guy again.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on February 15, 2022, 08:46:07 PM
Well, it is now another year of the Switch on the market and another year of Miyamoto gloating at us all for not seeing the complete failure the Switch has been like he was able to before it released.

It's March 3rd so you know what that means!!!!

Thread bump time.

Because of his complete absence ... I've been more willing to keep bumping this thread on the Switch anniversary ... I'll keep bumping this thread [until] a Switch 2 (or whatever system Nintendo releases to replace the Switch) comes out on the market

Kind of thought I was making it clear that it was becoming a tradition for me to bump it on March 3rd. That said, don't let me take away the joy bumping this thread may give you since I know you were the one that finally had it with his non-stop insistence that he was going to be right about the Switch and locked the thread because of it. Personally, I think I've done all I can at this point anyways to make him eat his words especially after last year. Wow, did I find new ways to mock his pessimistic predictions. So, go ahead and celebrate the sales with some schadenfreude.

And since a Switch is starting to look like its never coming, I guess there'll be more bumps for this thread yet after all!
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Khushrenada on February 15, 2022, 08:49:03 PM
And here, I'll even unlock the topic again so other users besides mods can post in it. I used to think it was worth keeping locked in case he came back and tried to delete his posts on it but at this point they've been quoted so much by others that they'd still be preserved.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Mop it up on February 15, 2022, 09:08:31 PM
Nintendo will never again release a new Mario game.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: ThePerm on February 17, 2022, 12:42:23 AM
When we look at price we can see that unlike the Wii U, most likely Switch's price will go down as time goes on. Also, game prices will get cheaper.  2 years from now a $99 switch is going to be really appealing.

Wait, WHAT? Where can I get one of these 2019 $99 Switch consoles? Slashing the price by 66% in two years?! Someone was really hating on the Switch and expecting it to crash and burn over its first two years!

Guys c'mon. The Switch ain't dropping to $99 on 2019.

Get out of here Soren! We don't need no correct predictions in this thread. Let's stick to the crazy talk here!

So, in 2 years there is going to be a  portable console that is $150 to $99. It's going to be loaded with Nintendo games. It'll already be loaded with a bunch of RPG games from third parties. Virtual Console library will have tons of indy games, classic games from 8-bit to present. Any problems with storage will be solved by SDXC.

That's right! Double down on that prediction. Not only will it be $99 but it will even have more features then the launch version of the Switch! ThePerm, what were you thinking?!

I can't think of anyone that would predict Nintendo having a console at $99 would be a super successful strategy!

in five years Nintendo will release a new console which is essentially a super stripped down dongle for $80 that has media services and budget gaming (which by then will be fine) and an IOS/Android phone suite for mobile gaming.

You see! Predicting an $80 dongle is much more realistic. That's how Nintendo will truly profit and become a force in the game industry again.

Well if you account for inflation the Switch Lite price at its price point of $199 in 2019 would be really close under The Price is Right rules  8) :P ;D :D ;).  I mean $150 in 2017 is $156 in 2019.  $150 would be $172 in 2022 because 14.7% inflation.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Luigi Dude on February 17, 2022, 03:00:11 PM
Plus you seem to forget this is basically a hybrid that will be combining all of Nintendo's resources so the handheld won't be eating away at the home console anymore since both will now be the same.  You can't forget the over 60 million 3DS owners that this thing is going to be appealing to since it's a 3DS successor as well.

I'm going to quote myself again because this the biggest reason why it was foolish for anyone to think the Switch was going to be another Wii U.  The 3DS, despite it's own short comings, was still a successful system.  The system ended up selling close to 76 million units, and even at the time of the Switch reveal it was well over 60 million.  It had a Mario Kart, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, 2D and 3D Mario games that were all 10 million plus sellers.

Even now when the Switch recently surpassed the Wii and PS1, so many across the internet were saying how surprised they were it did that.  It's like, the 3DS was less then 25 million away from hitting the 100 million mark.  With the Switch fixing many of the 3DS problems as well, it would have been a greater shock if the Switch didn't pass the 100 million mark.

It shows just many in the internet bubble have literally so little respect for handheld gaming that these handheld systems don't even exist to them.  Many made a big deal out of how it'd be impossible for the Switch to surpass the Wii because the Wii had all the media hype around it back when it first came out, completely forgetting that the DS which was on the market at the same time, sold over 50 million more units despite never getting close to the same level of media hype either.
Title: Re: Not a hater but... (future prediction)
Post by: Order.RSS on February 18, 2022, 01:26:55 PM
Anyway, even before January's full unveiling, at this juncture I consider anything less than 3DS-family sales to be underperforming for Switch. Underperforming also doesn't mean failure. If it ended up with 50 million units sold, that's still good, but it should still sell more. After next year, Switch will have almost all of Nintendo's first party output. To me, that's more than enough to push it over 15 million sales. Nintendo might get that in Switch's first year.

Idk about this, I mean granted I'm by no means an expert and don't really follow sales much. But hasn't 3DS moved like, 60 million units? Do consoles outsell handhelds usually? (I'm asking because I wouldn't know!)
Given Nintendo's track record with things like N64, GameCube, Wii U wouldn't something in the 30-40 mill frame make more sense? I don't know if it's really going to take off like Wii did to be honest.

If people really start using Switches out of the house so they're visible in public, they have fun unique games as well as the ones people want (shooters, sports games, western RPGs), then yeah I could see it being successful. Definitely think you're right that it will surpass Wii U, but it will need to do so fairly quickly if they really want it to catch on.

Things like battery life, durability and lightning-in-a-bottle moments of tapping into whatever cultural zeitgeist is relevant at the time all seem like (at this point) still very uncertain aspects. Hoping to be wrong here but I definitely understand why people have reservations.

Ah yes, there I am, conservatively estimating the Switch to sell N64 amounts of hardware.
Luckily we don't have a Clown Face emoji here.

I was definitely quite skeptical around launch. It had like five games tops in the first week(s), and I thought 1-2 Switch indicated they were trying to recapture the Wii magic, which I thought would flop.
Five years later they've already outsold the Wii before even wheeling out the Wii Sports revival. Lot of egg on my face.