Topic: 2014 Nintendo Prediction

[Ian Sane]

Nintendo's hardware teams are apparently always working on the next console.  Odds are if asked to deliver something quickly they could do it.  The problem is the logistics of having the physical hardware manufactured in significant enough quantities to launch in a decent timeframe.  Another problem is having games developed in time.  If Nintendo was to release a new console this year they would have had to start planning it last year some time, so they would have had to start recognizing that the Wii U was going to flop pretty early on.

If the DS flopped I think Nintendo could literally have just taken the same hardware, ditch the extra doodads like the touchscreen, and just change the cartridge shape and they would have had a decent new Game Boy.  Only hardcore tech geeks would know that it was just a repackaging of the failed DS and it would be really easy for devs to switch their DS projects to the new Game Boy.  The contingency system was built into the console itself.  It was like if a good replacement for the Wii U would just be a recycled Wii U without the Gamepad.  Now could I see Nintendo coming to THAT insane conclusion and then bombing yet again?  Maybe.

[NWR_insanolord]

Rushing an early idea for a console to market could very easily make things even worse than they are now. They shouldn't launch a successor that they aren't confident in and prepared for, and there's no way they're there at this point.

[Ian Sane]

I agree they shouldn't rush a console.  But I also think the Wii U need to be replaced ASAP before the PS4 and XB1 completely lock down the console market.

So I guess I think Nintendo is pretty damned screwed.  I would be aim for late 2015 but if I was in charge of Nintendo and somehow let the Wii U out the door I would have been planning to replace it for quite a while now, like pretty much around the time the competition was revealed, so I might have made late 2014.  Nintendo probably won't even consider the idea until they get the Christmas 2013 figures in.  But they should have been working on a contingency plan the second the PS4 was revealed and leapfrogged their specs for what at the time was only $50 more.

How do you replace a console that's flopping?  Sega is the only company to even attempt it and it didn't work (though the Dreamcast was a great system and Nintendo is in better financial shape than Sega was).  Everyone else exited the console market or the whole company just died off.

[Adrock]

Nintendo doesn't need to replace Wii U. Every time they release a new game, sales rise. This is not complicated. A Nintendo console without Nintendo games is about as useful as it sounds. Until people stop buying Nintendo games, there's no need to panic.

And you brought up specs again. Internet punch to the face for you.

[NWR_insanolord]

If the releases keep coming and, more importantly, Nintendo can develop and effectively implement a coherent marketing strategy, the Wii U is capable of being at least moderately successful. We're talking about GameCube-level sales, which won't be great, and will result in very shitty third party support, but it will make Nintendo money, and get them through to their next console.

[Luigi Dude]

Considering the Wii U's 2014 lineup is much stronger then 2013, the notion they'll even think about canceling the system at any point in 2014 just ridicules.  The fact Nintendo waited until Mario 3D World was released at the end of November to start advertising the system shows even they knew how weak their lineup was for the rest of 2013.  If the Wii U's 2013 sales were going to be the decider for the systems future they would have released Donkey Kong during the Fall and found a way to rush Mario Kart 8 for the holidays as well.

The fact they didn't shows they're still committed to a longer future for the system instead of the "OMG Kill it now after one bad year" attitude some on the internet like to shout.

[Khushrenada]

You all talkin' WII U?!?!
OMG Kill it now after one bad year

[BranDonk Kong]

Worked for Sega.

[Ian Sane]

Well this is a long term prediction but I figure if the Wii U isn't replaced within the next two years then it, or its successor, will be Nintendo's last console.  Even if the Wii U hangs on to a normal lifespan it is so ill-suited to compete with the PS4 and XB1 that it will just demolish any remaining cultural relevance or consumer goodwill Nintendo will have in the console market and its successor will be incapable of overcoming that.  Nintendo will either decide to not bother with consoles anymore or the market will just so soundly reject any new Nintendo console, even if it's legitimately great, that the Wii U successor will bomb in a way that Nintendo has to discontinue it.

[Khushrenada]

That's what people thought about the Gamecube but then Wii came along and completely changed things. With the Gamecube to Wii market share and sales example an actual fact (a thing that occurred), it doesn't matter how poorly a console performs or if it ends up dead last in a generation, there will always be the opportunity and potential that a company can change its fortune in the next generation and lead the market, thus making the previous generation irrelevant to future success.

[BranDonk Kong]

I really thinking calling it the "Wii U" was a horrible idea. This girl I work with (keep in mind we work in a shop where we repair game consoles, and both of us have PS4s) didn't even know what the Wii U was a couple of days ago. Even Wii 2 would have been a better name.

[Ceric]

I really thinking calling it the "Wii U" was a horrible idea. This girl I work with (keep in mind we work in a shop where we repair game consoles, and both of us have PS4s) didn't even know what the Wii U was a couple of days ago. Even Wii 2 would have been a better name.

What I heard was that the Wii U doesn't break that often or is non-Repairable.

[Ian Sane]

That's what people thought about the Gamecube but then Wii came along and completely changed things. With the Gamecube to Wii market share and sales example an actual fact (a thing that occurred), it doesn't matter how poorly a console performs or if it ends up dead last in a generation, there will always be the opportunity and potential that a company can change its fortune in the next generation and lead the market, thus making the previous generation irrelevant to future success.

At the time I figured Nintendo could bounce back from the Gamecube but I'm far more pessimistic about the Wii U.  Part of why the Wii U isn't selling is because Nintendo burned their bridge with core gamers.  The Wii's success is largely due to attracting a new casual audience that has promptly left Nintendo for tablets and smartphones.  So core gamers want nothing to do with Nintendo as a console maker, casuals aren't interested, third parties aren't supporting them and after five years of this it will just be worse.  All they really have are the Nintendo fans and how many of them are going to put up with five years where Nintendo releases like four games a year and there's pretty much nothing else to play?

At the very least the Wii U has gotten off to such a shitty start that Nintendo should be re-evaluating their strategy and coming up with a new plan.  It would be idiotic to just stay on the same course and sleepwalk their way through the rest of Wii U's life.  Some changes need to be made, if not by replacing the console outright, then with some new focus in marketing, third party policies, online features, game development, etc.  If they're just going to keep releasing cookie-cutter sequels at their current extremely slow pace while third parties bail then they're going to just destroy any value the Nintendo brand name has in the console market.

The Wii found a new audience and that is the sole reason its fate wasn't the same as the Wii U's.  Nintendo cannot rely on that ever again.  It was a once-in-a-lifetime situation.

[marvel_moviefan_2012]

Doesn't look like hardly any major predictions actually came true from last year.


I will make one for 2015, Splatoon will be the killer App Wii U has been waiting for.

[Khushrenada]

Doesn't look like hardly any major predictions actually came true from last year.

Watchyu talkin' bout Willis?

Hmmm.

I predict Nintendo will release games for the 3DS and the Wii U. People will not be happy with the majority of these offerings. They will wish Nintendo made something else instead. They will then still buy the games.

It's a bold prediction, I know, but that's the fun thing about these kinds of threads. The chance to go wild. Who knows? It might even come true.

As for games, I predict that Nintendo will release Donkey Kong Country Returns 2, Super Smash Bros. Brouhaha, Mario Kart Hypserspace and Bayonetta 2: Hardcore Weeps for the Wii U.

As for the 3DS, there hasn't been a Mario Sports title released in awhile so maybe Mario Golf: Bogie Nights, Kirby: I can haz cheesburger? 3D, Yoshi's New though still kind of Old Island, Super Smash Bros. Brouhaha Brouhaho, Bravely Defaulted: Fairy Foreclosure, Professor Layton and the plot to kill Hitler but really just make you find and solve puzzles 6, Professor Layton Vs Ace Attorney: Deathgrudge and Chibi-Robo: Photo Finder, Money Loser.

Nailed it! 100%. My time machine never fails me.