Topic: Reggie: No Wii Software Drought

[Kairon]

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Originally posted by: IceCold

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Originally posted by: Rize
jason, it goes to the console where devs can make the most profit.  with the wii. nintendo has changed the rules a bit because the wii should generally be far cheaper to develop for.  there's no HD and no mega powerful GPU to deal with.  with that kind of edge, the wii should attract serious third party support even if it does sell less units than the other guys.  if it is a strong second, third party support should be great.  if it's first, it'll naturally be through the roof because they'll have the base combined with inexpensive development. as long as nintendo doesn't shoot themselves in the foot by making their license fee too high that is...

Exactly. I'd also like to add that third parties look at the number of software sold (especially third party software) rather than the install base. Most of the time the market leader sells the most software, but if the race is close this time around, the tie-in ration will be really important. Nintendo consoles have historically had a great tie in ratio, since they focus almost purely on the games. Even the GameCube had a ratio of 12.. Something like the PSP, on the other hand, with all of its multimedia functions, is a horrible prospect to third parties. What does a big userbase mean if they never buy any games?

The ratio may actually be lower this time around for Nintendo, with their Internet browser, weather channel, Virtual Console games and whatnot, but third parties have the chance of making a lot of money with the Wii.

Ah, but there are many additional details worth concern when dealing with tie-in ratio.

For example, it also works in MS' favor, since the X360 has a wonderful tie-in ratio. AND because even though it's dead in Japan, it's able to move marketted software in financially sustainable numbers that have a very attractive penetration statistic, uber targeted at a hardcore crowd. Blue Dragon moved 100k units in Japan easy, which is what the developer wanted to be able to sell, as well as is pretty much 35% of its entire user base there. Also, Gears of War moved 2 million units (pretty much all in the USA), which is pretty much 40% of their entire U.S. console base. In MS' case, they can show that they have a great tie-in ratio with hardcore gamers for very specific types of games (and horrible for others... like poor poor Viva Pinata).

THEN, we have to deal with Nintendo's tie-in ratio... as in lots of games sell, but how many of those are third parties? If all Nintendo fans ever buy are Nintendo games, then third parties can basically ignore that chunk of a console's install base. Looking at the DS, there are maybe only one or two million sellers in the Japanese market that aren't made by Nintendo... the other 11 or so are all Nintendo published. And again with Japan, the Wii charts for third parties look absolutely abysmal, showing the withering effect Nintendo games can have on third party sales on Nintendo systems: Wii Sports, Wii Play, and to a lesser extent, Zelda and Wario Ware, are all responsible for third party launch-week sales of 10,000 per title or less in the land of the rising sun. It almost makes it look like third parties should be thankful that NOA bundled Wii sports with the system, otherwise their games would have to contend with yet another must-have Nintendo title on the shelves.

Indeed, if Nintendo ever wants to garner more widespread third party support akin to a PS2, they have to show publishers that the people who own their consoles will buy games not made by Nintendo. To these ends... I'm doing my part (Far Cry for the Wii  is surprisingly FUN!!!)... are you?

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[IceCold]

Microsoft's problem is that they are slowly finding their way into a niche market. Sure, they have online, HD, dozens of shooters, etc, but that only caters to a very specific crowd. It's the same crowd that the Xbox catered to. Proof of this is while Gears of War sold 2 million in North America, the console sales were abysmal. That game didn't sell systems, since most of the audience already has an Xbox 360. Actually, console sales as a whole have been quite low for the 360 - written off in Japan, doing mediocre at best in Europe and even over here the sales were below expected. Microsoft is trying to take steps to solve this problem of theirs (Viva Pinata, Blue Dragon) but they just aren't effective enough. It's kind of like Nintendo with the GameCube.

Regarding the third-party tie in ratio, the DS was built from the ground up by Nintendo. Even though the GBA was the console leader, third parties were reluctant at best to support the DS. If there aren't quality games by third parties, how do you expect them to sell? Now that the DS is such an explosive phenomenon, third parties are finally starting to back it, and over the next year we're sure to get some third-party games that will sell very well. With the Wii, I'm glad to see that Nintendo is giving third parties much more of a chance by staggering their releases. Red Steel sold very well, despite it not being the best of games. We're seeing that, contrary to the DS, developers are more willing to jump onto the bandwagon earlier. I expect that at E3 we will be amazed by the new third party games that will be shown by developers who now believe in the Wii. The launch has showed that Wii owners are willing to buy games, now all we need is a few exclusive third party ones.

[Kairon]

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Originally posted by: IceCold
Microsoft is trying to take steps to solve this problem of theirs (Viva Pinata, Blue Dragon) but they just aren't effective enough. It's kind of like Nintendo with the GameCube.

Ironic and true.

~Carmine "Cai" M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[Smash_Brother]

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Originally posted by: IceCold Regarding the third-party tie in ratio, the DS was built from the ground up by Nintendo. Even though the GBA was the console leader, third parties were reluctant at best to support the DS. If there aren't quality games by third parties, how do you expect them to sell? Now that the DS is such an explosive phenomenon, third parties are finally starting to back it, and over the next year we're sure to get some third-party games that will sell very well. With the Wii, I'm glad to see that Nintendo is giving third parties much more of a chance by staggering their releases. Red Steel sold very well, despite it not being the best of games. We're seeing that, contrary to the DS, developers are more willing to jump onto the bandwagon earlier. I expect that at E3 we will be amazed by the new third party games that will be shown by developers who now believe in the Wii. The launch has showed that Wii owners are willing to buy games, now all we need is a few exclusive third party ones.

It was the DS which, I think, gave Nintendo the edge that brought so many 3rd parties on board so quickly.

If Nintendo hadn't already proven that they could take a console which was a bit quirky and bizarre and sell it to the mass-market, then I don't think so many devs would have jumped on the Wii like they did.

[jasonditz]

There's only one satisfactory argument I think on this and it's that you can't release a system selling game when there are no systems to sell. That's the only reason I could see for intentionally delaying a hot title.

Once Wiis are readily available, I think you really need to do everything possible to convince people to buy them.  

[IceCold]

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Originally posted by: jasonditz
There's only one satisfactory argument I think on this and it's that you can't release a system selling game when there are no systems to sell. That's the only reason I could see for intentionally delaying a hot title.

Once Wiis are readily available, I think you really need to do everything possible to convince people to buy them.

That's a very good point. If they release, say, Super Mario Galaxy while Wiis are still hard to find, it would be a lot of potential wasted. That game will sell many systems, so they'll need it a bit later on in the game.