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Not a hater but... (future prediction)

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Luigi Dude:

--- Quote from: Luigi Dude on December 04, 2016, 07:17:30 AM ---Plus you seem to forget this is basically a hybrid that will be combining all of Nintendo's resources so the handheld won't be eating away at the home console anymore since both will now be the same.  You can't forget the over 60 million 3DS owners that this thing is going to be appealing to since it's a 3DS successor as well.

--- End quote ---

I'm going to quote myself again because this the biggest reason why it was foolish for anyone to think the Switch was going to be another Wii U.  The 3DS, despite it's own short comings, was still a successful system.  The system ended up selling close to 76 million units, and even at the time of the Switch reveal it was well over 60 million.  It had a Mario Kart, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, 2D and 3D Mario games that were all 10 million plus sellers.

Even now when the Switch recently surpassed the Wii and PS1, so many across the internet were saying how surprised they were it did that.  It's like, the 3DS was less then 25 million away from hitting the 100 million mark.  With the Switch fixing many of the 3DS problems as well, it would have been a greater shock if the Switch didn't pass the 100 million mark.

It shows just many in the internet bubble have literally so little respect for handheld gaming that these handheld systems don't even exist to them.  Many made a big deal out of how it'd be impossible for the Switch to surpass the Wii because the Wii had all the media hype around it back when it first came out, completely forgetting that the DS which was on the market at the same time, sold over 50 million more units despite never getting close to the same level of media hype either.


--- Quote from: Order.RSS on December 04, 2016, 04:00:01 PM ---
--- Quote from: Adrock on December 04, 2016, 03:08:00 PM ---Anyway, even before January's full unveiling, at this juncture I consider anything less than 3DS-family sales to be underperforming for Switch. Underperforming also doesn't mean failure. If it ended up with 50 million units sold, that's still good, but it should still sell more. After next year, Switch will have almost all of Nintendo's first party output. To me, that's more than enough to push it over 15 million sales. Nintendo might get that in Switch's first year.

--- End quote ---

Idk about this, I mean granted I'm by no means an expert and don't really follow sales much. But hasn't 3DS moved like, 60 million units? Do consoles outsell handhelds usually? (I'm asking because I wouldn't know!)
Given Nintendo's track record with things like N64, GameCube, Wii U wouldn't something in the 30-40 mill frame make more sense? I don't know if it's really going to take off like Wii did to be honest.

If people really start using Switches out of the house so they're visible in public, they have fun unique games as well as the ones people want (shooters, sports games, western RPGs), then yeah I could see it being successful. Definitely think you're right that it will surpass Wii U, but it will need to do so fairly quickly if they really want it to catch on.

Things like battery life, durability and lightning-in-a-bottle moments of tapping into whatever cultural zeitgeist is relevant at the time all seem like (at this point) still very uncertain aspects. Hoping to be wrong here but I definitely understand why people have reservations.

--- End quote ---

Ah yes, there I am, conservatively estimating the Switch to sell N64 amounts of hardware.
Luckily we don't have a Clown Face emoji here.

I was definitely quite skeptical around launch. It had like five games tops in the first week(s), and I thought 1-2 Switch indicated they were trying to recapture the Wii magic, which I thought would flop.
Five years later they've already outsold the Wii before even wheeling out the Wii Sports revival. Lot of egg on my face.

The results of the last fiscal quarter are out, and the Switch has officially passed the Game Boy to become Nintendo’s second-highest selling system ever at 122.55 million units. It has a real shot to be #1, needing 31 million and change to pass the DS, which seems doable at this point. 

Luigi Dude:

--- Quote from: NWR_insanolord on February 07, 2023, 07:26:15 AM ---The results of the last fiscal quarter are out, and the Switch has officially passed the Game Boy to become Nintendo’s second-highest selling system ever at 122.55 million units. It has a real shot to be #1, needing 31 million and change to pass the DS, which seems doable at this point. 

--- End quote ---

At this point it's pretty much guaranteed.  As we see from the recent hardware and software sales, the system still has a lot of momentum yet.  Nintendo says the main reason for hardware sales being down last year was because of supply chain issues, and the software sales were pretty much flat from the previous year, which is pretty insane for a system that was in it's 6th year on the market.

Seriously, if Pokemon Scarlet/Violet could sell over 20 million in less then 2 months, and it was the sequel to Sword and Shield which did over 25 million, then Tears of the Kingdom is going to be just as big since Breath of the Wild did 29 million on Switch, with another million plus on the Wii U.  Tears of the Kingdom will pretty much dominate all gaming conversations in May and June giving the Switch a lot of attention again.

I also think there's a good chance we'll be getting a new 2D Mario at the end of this year that will be huge.  Seriously, NSMB U Deluxe is now close to 15 million on the Switch.  If we get a brand new 2D Mario that's seen as the next evolution for the franchise, you're looking at an easy 30 million seller, like NSMB DS and Wii were.

Plus they still have the price cut card they can play, to give them a boast.  The Switch is still $300 with it's best selling games from launch being sold for $60.  If Nintendo decides to cut the price to $250, or hell, down to $200 and games like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Breath of the Wild are now being sold for $20-30 that right there will get a lot of people to finally jump on board as well.

It's kind of amazing Nintendo hasn't done enormous price cut's to boost sales and it's still one of their best of all time.


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