Topic: Around the water cooler

[Luigi]

I hardly post, but I lurk much.  At work today we were talking about market trends in the land of consoles.  The general consensus is that Xbox is overtaking PS2 in sales.  But this seems to be having little effect on Nintendo.  Xbox's gains are largely Sony loses.  What do you guys think of the idea that in 5 years it will be only Microsoft and Nintendo?

I'm not asking which system you think is better.  I am both alarmed and intrigued by the last few months NPD results and how it looks tough for Sony.  Which is quite odd.

[Urkel]

I've been thinking about this lately, too.

The impression I get from the people at work is that the Xbox is now THE cool system. Whenever they talk about videogames, it's usually the Xbox. This can only help Nintendo. Sony has relied for a long time on their name and for being perceived as cool. Take that away, and Sony is seriously screwed. The Xbox appeals to much of the same crowd the PS2 does, so it would make sense that the Xbox doing better would affect Sony more instead of Nintendo.

Plus, depending on how arrogant and careless Sony may get by the next gen, they may end up making a colossal mistake, thus giving Microsoft a chance to capture a huge portion of Sony's marketshare. If this were to happen, I believe that most of the western devs would flock to the Xenon, and most of the Japanese devs to the Revolution. This would result in a healthy Snes/Genesis style competition that we've all been waiting for.

Do I think Sony would just go away? No. But it seems as though their days of unchallenged domination in the console world may be slipping away.

Of course, that's a lot of ifs, but it doesn't seem too farfetched. It's like all the Sony execs were whacked in the head with a shovel until they forgot the reason why they had overtaken Nintendo in the first place.

[S-U-P-E-R]

or maybe no more ps2s are selling because they already hit market saturation

[joshnickerson]

Quote
Originally posted by: Urkel
It's like all the Sony execs were whacked in the head with a shovel until they forgot the reason why they had overtaken Nintendo in the first place.

Revenge.

[Ian Sane]

I would assume that if the PS2 is the clear market leader and the Xbox is gaining ground that in the future it would be only Sony and MS not MS and Nintendo.  As much as I hate to see it happen it's most likely that the last place console would be the first to drop out.

Though in terms of what they provide to the market there is no real need for both Sony and MS to have consoles because they prove provide the same types of games.  They cater more to casual gamers and the same types of games are popular on both systems.  The Cube's popular titles are more hardcore.  One thing that will help Nintendo is that they actually have brand loyality.  There are Nintendo fans.  There are virtually no Sony fans.  People just buy that console because it has the most games.  MS has more fans because of Halo but really it's more about third party titles or what devs MS buys out.  So it may be possible for MS or Sony to kill the other and still have Nintendo survive.  But it's going to be tough.

An industry with just Nintendo and MS would be great.  Why?  Because Nintendo would then be the clear leader in Japan and thus get all of the games I really like.  MS would be stronger in America and would attract more of the American titles which I usually don't care about anyway.  In the 16 bit wars Nintendo was dominant in Japan while Sega appealed to America so we would be kind of recreating that type of rivalry.  The split between Japanese and American third parties would be enough that neither console would get a very clear position over the other.  We would have REAL competition again.

[couchmonkey]

I don't see Microsoft overtaking Sony unless Sony is really arrogant.  Granted, lately, that seems to be the case.  Offline Gran Turismo 4, a harddrive incompatible PS2 Mark II, and ever-growing rumours that the PSP will cost over $300...Sony seems to be slipping.

But I wouldn't bet against Sony just yet.  Microsoft will never be able to take Sony in Japan unless it gets support from Square Enix (or from every other Japanese dev that makes an RPG.)  Besides which, as Nintendo and even Sega showed us, a hardware maker can remain standing for a long time even if it loses big chunks of market share.  I think it's possible for Sony to be squeezed out, but it won't be quick and easy.

I think Sony needs to get more aggressive.  I personally have found Sony's marketing to be no better than Nintendo's this generation: when the Gamecube and Xbox first came out I was surprised at how weak Sony's response was, and a lot of Sony's recent ads have been awfully lame.  Then there's Grand Theft Auto...it was Sony's trump card, and now it's on Xbox.  Late, yes, but there nonetheless.  Along with Tomb Raider, Crash, Resident Evil, Metal Gear and Final Fantasy, GTA is one more sign to casual gamers that you don't have to own a PS2 since most of the popular games wind up on other consoles eventually anyway.

Could Nintendo wind up being the loser?  Yes.  Sony has actually been pretty kid-friendly all along, and I know hardcore Sony fans who play the PS2 for it's RPGs and wacky Japanese games.  I think it could eclipse Nintendo.

[boggy b]

I think market saturation is probably the most likely answer. Last year, the PS2 had sold approx. 29 million units, and the XBOX, the next console down, a mere 8 million. PS2 would be totally unable to sustain such high sales figures; the target market just isn't big enough.

[joeamis]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ian Sane

Though in terms of what they provide to the market there is no real need for both Sony and MS to have consoles because they prove provide the same types of games.  They cater more to casual gamers and the same types of games are popular on both systems.  The Cube's popular titles are more hardcore.  

MS would be stronger in America and would attract more of the American titles which I usually don't care about anyway.

Like the other guys said, it's because the majority of people who wanted a PS2 already have one...  The fact that XB are getting closer to PS2 sales is bad for Nintendo.  Many of the people buying XB already own PS2.  And now there 2nd console is the XB instead of the GC.

I disagree that there is no real need for both Sony and MS to have consoles because they provide the same types of games.  I own PS2 and GC and there are tons of titles on XB I want to play but can't (that are quite different from PS2 games I like).  There are alot of titles on every system that are different from the others.  I wouldn't call the Cubes popular titles more hardcore, most of them are the 1st party games of long standing franchises.  The XB has shooters and PC games, among other games that are really hardcore, games I find that only a certain portion of gamers play.  The fact that you mention MS would attract more American titles you don't care about is part of the number of titles that are hardcore for many gamers.  Titles that aren't popular in japan, fps and derivatives of fps games.

[Luigi]

It's interesting how things turned out.  Looks like there is a future with 3 main cosoles in video games.  Which, by the way, if you would have said 3 years ago, you would have been laughed off the internet.  Even if it loses to Xbox in the US, Sony is still sheltered by Japan.  Xbox has the US.  And Nintendo has the handheld market in both.  I have to say I have a nagging concern about Sony.  I don't want to see them taken down by Microsoft.

[couchmonkey]

I wouldn't normally bring an old post like this back, but the idea that Xbox is now cooler than PS2 has been stewing in my mind for the past month, and several things have got me thinking that maybe it's true.

First, on lunch with a few coworkers last month, Halo 2 came up.  Three were very interested in it, I was mildly interested in it, and the other two guys don't play videogames.  The three guys who are very interested in it don't own or care about any other console.

Second, my dad brought the topic up one night pointing out that Xbox is the only console any of his coworkers talk about.  And they do so regularly.

Third, a diehard Cube supporter I know recently bought an Xbox.  And Xbox seems to be the console of choice for Nintendo fans that want a second machine.

Fourth, on Nintendorks someone commented lately that he met a girl who told him he wasn't a real gamer since he didn't have the most powerful system and she was planning to replace her PS2 with an Xbox.

Ignoring the purely enraging nature of the comments from the girl in the last point, I'm beginning to think that Xbox really is cooler than PS2 now...in North America.  Corporate suits lead the charge to Xbox coolness, but even teenage girls are starting to follow!  I'd say that Xbox may be entering mainstream consciousness as the "in" console.

This brings up one more interesting point...if Microsoft releases the Xbox 2 before the other consoles, does it risk falling victim to it's own "most power" hype?  Or will it take advantage of an early lead to become #1 in the western nations?  

[Bill Aurion]

"Corporate suits lead the charge to Xbox coolness, but even teenage girls are starting to follow!"

Not where I live...Of the girls that I've seen that play videogames, I find that Mario Kart is the most popular title...

[KDR_11k]

And Xbox seems to be the console of choice for Nintendo fans that want a second machine.

Means I'm a weirdo with my (not very shiny) new PS2?

[MaleficentOgre]

Xbox is the coolest console out there, and next generation it'll be nintendo's hardcore fans and xbox's coolness.  Sony will lose the mainstream battle next year.

[Pale]

As super said, the only reason you aren't hearing much from sony is because they have hit market saturation.... I'm not sure you realize just how huge their lead is.  If all next gen consoles launch together as expected, I think PS3 will dominate regardless of software, and who will win Nintendo vs. X-box is still up in the air.  Its going to depend a lot on how the systems are hyped up.  If one could find a benefit in the fact that Nintendo has no online plan, its that when they announce one it should be pretty well hyped....  MS on the other hand has already played all their cards....

[MaleficentOgre]

not so fast my friend.  xbox is creeping in on sony's coolness.  this is sony's game to lose.  I think that the success has gone to their heads and they are going to make a huge mistake with PS3.  If its as hard to develop for as I hear then that's it.  Japanese Developers will go back to nintendo and americans to xbox.  I think sony's going to take a hit with PS3 because of PSP and that stupid cel technology they keep talking about.

[KDR_11k]

The PS3 won't use the Cell processor, IBM confirmed they will give the same CPUs to Microsoft and Sony.

Analysts predict the PS3 will not grab first place again but I doubt Sony will fall too far. I don't know what will happen with Nintendo but I doubt MS is going to reverse positions on Sony. Maybe 60-40 but not as clear cut a victory as Sony took this gen.

[Caillan]

Quote
I would assume that if the PS2 is the clear market leader and the Xbox is gaining ground that in the future it would be only Sony and MS not MS and Nintendo. As much as I hate to see it happen it's most likely that the last place console would be the first to drop out.

Nintendo has a sort of niche, and is attempting (rather unsuccessfully so far) to build on that. Sony and Microsoft are fighting for North America.

I guess it's not so common anymore, but remember when Microsoft spread the rumours that Nintendo was pulling out of the console sence? Nothing's changed since then: even with the worst possible advertisng and imagee, Nintendo continues to be a profitable company.

[couchmonkey]

Whether or not Sony has hit market saturation, Xbox is the system people are talking about, and Halo 2 is the game they're talking about.  What good is market saturation if all of your fans quit buying your games and move to another console?  Now, I know that hasn't happened yet, I don't even think it's going to happen soon.  But I am beginning to think Microsoft is in position to steal a lot of Sony's thunder in the next generation of console wars if Sony isn't on guard.

I believe PS3 will take first place again, but I won't be surprised if Microsoft's next system is neck-and-neck with it in North America.

Bill: You're right in that most girls I know are also more into games like Mario Kart or Super Monkey Ball than the types of games the Xbox is famous for...I'm just arguing that Xbox has tied up the coolio corporate market and now it seems to be spreading more into the mainstream.  I've actually felt in the past that if Nintendo could figure out a way to sell GameCubes to women, it would probably build a huge new market for itself.  I have a lot of female friends who love the GameCube but simply aren't interested in buying one.

[TMW]

I knew something was up when I heard a review for Halo 2 on NPR.  

I hadn't realized the attitudes have changed so much latley.  The majority of my friends either don't play videogames or will play anything, so I've been rather sheltered from the common persons perceptions of gaming as a whole...but I don't think Sony can be counted out just yet.  They have a huge presence in the market, and I've noticed a disparity in the size of the PS2 game selection and the GC's at Walmart and Kmart and the like.  For Sony to drop out of the race like some of you guys have predicted, they would have to screw up on a level that would make Sega's record look spotless.

As happy as I would be to see Sony crash and burn, I just don't see it happening any time soon.  

[The Omen]

Quote
Not where I live...Of the girls that I've seen that play videogames, I find that Mario Kart is the most popular title...

\
Well, as much as I would love that to be the true hard facts, it's simply not...xbox has ,by a sizeable margin,  a bigger crowd than the GC...saD But true.

[couchmonkey]

TMW: I agree Sony won't crash and burn any time soon, but to even come second to MS in North America, given the humonguous popularity of their current and previous consoles, would be a fairly big fall for Sony.  Most people see the Super NES losing marketshare to Genesis as Nintendo's first big "mistake".  Nintendo went from a near-monopoly to a head-to-head battle with Sega.  I think Sony is all set to repeat that in the next generation of consoles.  It will still do well, just as the Super NES was still a very popular system, but maybe Sony's not going to be the undisputed champion anymore.

I could be wrong, but that's how it looks to me.  I think it's interesting.

[KDR_11k]

Well, if Sony fell to #2 they'd be dead. They have nowhere near the development ability of Nintendo or the cash of Microsoft. Why would anyone want to develop for Sony's next system when it isn't market leader, takes additional time to compensate for idiotic hardware design and has the weakest overall output? MS gives out money hats and Nintendo offers more features. Sony? Well, to a developer it doesn't mean crap that the system can read DVDs.

[boggy b]

Quote
Originally posted by: KDR_11k
Well, if Sony fell to #2 they'd be dead. They have nowhere near the development ability of Nintendo or the cash of Microsoft. Why would anyone want to develop for Sony's next system when it isn't market leader, takes additional time to compensate for idiotic hardware design and has the weakest overall output? MS gives out money hats and Nintendo offers more features. Sony? Well, to a developer it doesn't mean crap that the system can read DVDs.

Lots of ifs and buts! Let's address it more objectively:
- PS3 will not have 'idiotic hardware design', and nor will it take longer for companies to port to PS3 like they have with PS2 this generation. Sony have already pledged to provide full-featured SDKs  for PS3 a long, long time before the console's release (it wouldn't suprise me if a few companies have already recieved the 'Beta' version). The recent announcement that nVidia will supply the GPU can only help - nVidia have a long history of supplying excellent support for all of their products to developers, including the XGPU (and therefore, we can assume the PS3 GPU aswell).

- PS3 will probably not have the weakest overall output. My guess is that it will be basically the same as Xenon, and ahead of Revolution: Nintendo are already saying 'games not pixels' (or whatever their new tagline is). It would be a nonsesnse to assume that Nintendo will downplay graphics and still have graphics that compete with the other two (or, are of a similar level).

By my reckoning, were Sony to go into second place next round, it would put them in basically the same position as XBox this round, and there's not exactly a drought of games for XBox, is there?

Looking at it logically, if Nintendo are forced to rely purely on their 'old faithful' to carry them through, they could get on very bad footing. It's poor financially to rely on exactly the same consumers all of the time. You need to appeal to as many people as possible to survive.  

[KDR_11k]

MS is buying up third parties to grab exclusives. Sony doesn't have that much money available.

Thing is, Sony is including the Cell. That's already idiotic hardware design. I mean, the thing was designed for clustering and multipurpose use. By including a GPU Sony defeats the point of having the thing be able to change its purpose (well, you could make it a sound processor or something but I have a feeling nobody's going to throw a full processor at sound processing) and clustering doesn't work well with interactive realtime environments. It also forces developers to again handle the hardware more carefully assigning tasks carefully to prevent one CPU from being overloaded while another idles. Multithreading also adds complexity where it isn't needed and introduces more points where bugs could appear.

[boggy b]

Why have they defeated the purpose? Cell will be a competant CPU, with good enough support from Sony (and indeed IBM) that devs will be able to exploit it reasonably well straight away. It's not going to be the 1TFLOP pushing monster we've had hyped up for the last few months. That was unreasonable, and the nVidia GPU removes the point for it.

PS3 will basically have a standard PC architecture, but instead of an Intel or AMD CPU, it will be a STI Cell CPU. Is that really such a difficult concept to comprehend? People are so anti-Sony here that even when they make good descisions they get critiscized.

If you want to talk about idiotic hardware design, talk about PS2. Even today, most developers aren't using VU0 because of the ridiculous levels of assembler microcode optimisation required for it not to suck. And what the hell were they thinking when they didn't put a decent GPU in there, only 4MB of VRAM, and then topped it off with basically no developer support?!

Compared to PS2, PS3 will seem like Deep Thought