Topic: Nintendo Cuts Wii U Sales Forecast

[oksoda]

Both the Wii U and 3DS are now projected to sell fewer units than initially predicted.

http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/news/36375

Nintendo has adjusted its 2013 fiscal year predictions, cutting the forecast for Wii U sales from the original figure of 9 million units worldwide to a meager 2.8 million.

On the software side, Nintendo has cut its prediction in half from 38 million units sold to 19 million.

During the holiday sales period, known for being the most profitable time of the year for companies in the game industry, software sales were significantly lower than the predicted numbers. Nintendo attributes this fact to lower-than-expected Wii U sales.

In the first two quarters of this fiscal year, the Wii U sold only 460,000 units worldwide, a mere 6% of its projected sales. Even with a strong December--Wii U is rumored to have sold somewhere between 450,000 to 500,000 units last month--reaching the initial projection was going to be nearly impossible.

Despite being the best-selling console of 2013 in the US, sales predictions for the 3DS have been readjusted as well. Nintendo has dropped the expected 18 million units sold to 13.5 million, while also moving software sold to 60 million from 80 million.

[EvilMario]

Some new quotes from CVG / Bloomberg from the press conference this morning as well.

"We cannot continue a business without winning," Iwata said on Friday during a press conference attended by Bloomberg. "We must take a sceptical approach whether we can still simply make game players, offer them in the same way as in the past for 20,000 yen or 30,000 yen, and sell titles for a couple of thousand yen each.


"We are thinking about a new business structure," Iwata added. "Given the expansion of smart devices, we are naturally studying how smart devices can be used to grow the game-player business. It's not as simple as enabling Mario to move on a smartphone."

2014 is going to be an interesting year for Nintendo. I'm still of mind their next system will be portable, with the option to output to the television (through HDMI, streaming, or whatever means they come up with). Consolidating the two pieces of hardware into one makes allot of sense, from cutting down on R&D cost, not splitting the userbase that may only purchase one, or the other, and all your development resources being focused on the one device.


What's really interesting though is Iwata's future. If he's replaced, then by whom? If it's from inside the company, change probably comes more slowly. If it's from outside the company, someone with more mobile ambition, perhaps we see things shift more quickly. eShop / VC releases on Android and their own dedicated system, with the few so called 'premium' games being exclusive to their own hardware. I could see something like that.


I'm sure there'll be a Nintendo Direct coming soon, but I wouldn't count on it for long term answers. Never a dull moment in this industry..

[broodwars]

 

(more fully-formed rant to come in the near-future, but suffice it to say 2014 should be a fun year to watch now that Iwata's back is against the wall and Wii U is officially a failure)

[BlackNMild2k1]

FIRE-SALE!!!!!    EVERYTHING MUST GO! GO! GO!!!!!

Hopefully Nintendo comes all the way out their bubble and addresses a lot of the criticisms toward their current hardware, software and company policies.

[Ian Sane]

My prediction of the Wii U being discontinued in 2014 might actually come true.  It sounds weird to hear Iwata say "We must take a sceptical approach whether we can still simply make game players".  Dang it, I don't want them to make shitty mobile games.  I just want them to make a console that I actually want to own!  Even Nintendo as a handheld-only company is something I could make do with so saying "game players" seems like an over-reaction.  Plus there is a sense of "oh, it's impossible" that conveniently deflects blame from Nintendo.  The problem is entirely in the product Nintendo chose to release.  No, there is no market for last gen hardware with no third party support that gets cookie cutter first party sequels released at a snail's pace where the only distinguishing feature is a gimmick controller that doesn't even get used that much.

It's like Nintendo focused on all the crappy parts of the Wii that the Wii succeeded despite of and ignored the qualities that made it popular in the first place.  The Wii sold entirely because the motion control concept was something people had dreamed about for years.  That's a very specific feature and it shows how clueless Nintendo is when they come to the conclusion that outdated hardware w/ gimmick controller = PROFIT!!  Waggle in NSMB didn't make the Wii successful.  It was the game where you swing your controller and the character on the screen swings his racket the same way that created the whole frenzy.  It was this one feature that grabbed people's imaginations so effectively that they were willing to overlook the numerous flaws.  I swear if Iwata was in charge of Nintendo in the past he would have associated PokĂ©mon's success with the non-color Game Boy screen and made the future games in black & white.

I'm surprised they had to re-adjust their 3DS projections since all I've heard since the price cut is how successful the system is and it is a damn good product with great games.  Is it big in North America but not in Japan?

[Ceric]

This took a very long time to get posted.

Anyway, should be a good jolt to Nintendo.  We'll see what they do with it but, Wii U days are probably now officially numbered.

[Ian Sane]

Oh ****, I just realized that if the Wii U gets discontinued then X might not get translated for the Western market! Arrrrgh!!!!  I mean if your console is a bust why would you bother localizing a niche game that would probably end up one of the last games released for the system?

[broodwars]

Oh ****, I just realized that if the Wii U gets discontinued then X might not get translated for the Western market! Arrrrgh!!!!  I mean if your console is a bust why would you bother localizing a niche game that would probably end up one of the last games released for the system?

If the Wii U is discontinued, X will either just get released for the Wii U anyway or get retooled for the 3DS (aka "the only system Nintendo actually cares about anymore"). Nintendo's spent way too much time and money on X at this point to simply cancel it.

[Ian Sane]

Oh ****, I just realized that if the Wii U gets discontinued then X might not get translated for the Western market! Arrrrgh!!!!  I mean if your console is a bust why would you bother localizing a niche game that would probably end up one of the last games released for the system?

If the Wii U is discontinued, X will either just get released for the Wii U anyway or get retooled for the 3DS (aka "the only system Nintendo actually cares about anymore"). Nintendo's spent way too much time and money on X at this point to simply cancel it.

I'm not talking about canceling it, just not localizing it for North America.

[broodwars]

Oh ****, I just realized that if the Wii U gets discontinued then X might not get translated for the Western market! Arrrrgh!!!!  I mean if your console is a bust why would you bother localizing a niche game that would probably end up one of the last games released for the system?

If the Wii U is discontinued, X will either just get released for the Wii U anyway or get retooled for the 3DS (aka "the only system Nintendo actually cares about anymore"). Nintendo's spent way too much time and money on X at this point to simply cancel it.

I'm not talking about canceling it, just not localizing it for North America.

Eh, I don't see X's localization chances being that much worse if the Wii U were discontinued. At the very least, Nintendo of Europe would do their job and localize it, and now that Reggie's not calling the shots at NoA I don't see X not getting brought over here eventually.

[BlackNMild2k1]

If Wii U gets "discontinued" then it wouldn't happen until they were ready to announce something to replace it (crosses fingers for "hybrid" idea ) and X may just get "up-ported" to that system instead.

and if that happens to be my "hybrid" idea (crosses fingers) then they really wouldn't have much work to do anyway.

[Killer_Man_Jaro]

Those who genuinely believe that the Wii U will be discontinued in the next 3 years have a fundamental misunderstanding of how Nintendo is run as a company and a business. They will see it through to the end, for better or worse for their financials. The Wii U is going nowhere.

[NWR_insanolord]

If we've learned anything from Nintendo's last three consoles, they will almost certainly stubbornly stick by the Wii U several years past the point where it is at all viable for any third party publishers.

[BlackNMild2k1]

2015: Year of the "Hybrid"
successor to the 3DS (& "stop gap" for the Wii U)

I'm putting a flagged pin on the calendar.

[Luigi Dude]

It's not like Nintendo just suddenly woke up today and realized the Wii U is doing terrible.  There's a reason they waited until the end of November when Mario 3D World was released to actually start advertising the system again.  If the Wii U was in a position where it was in danger of being discontinued because of current sales, they would have released Donkey Kong during the holiday season like it was originally planed and found a way to rush Mario Kart 8 while announcing Smash Bros would be coming out in early 2014.

[Ian Sane]

They're talking about this on US Gamer and it says that Nintendo's forecast is going from a $527 million profit to a $240 million loss.  How long can Nintendo hold on with those kind of figures?  That isn't the 3DS keeping the Wii U afloat but rather the Wii U dragging the whole thing down.  There is a certain point where Nintendo could not afford to continue to make the Wii U.

How will third parties respond to this?  Yeah the support is bad but how bad could it get?  Could we get the point where we can easily count the amount of games that come out per year?  And then how does that affect retailers?  If very few games come out and the console isn't selling then stores don't want a dud eating up valuable floor space.  They don't want to commit to product that won't sell.  Nintendo doesn't have complete control of the fate of the Wii U.

Anyone know what Nintendo's projected vs. actual sales of the Gamecube was since that comes up all the time whenever anyone says that Nintendo will stick by the Wii U?  Did it ever get to the point where it was less than a THIRD of what they were projecting?

[NWR_insanolord]

I'm pretty sure the N64 got to the point where you could easily count the releases.

[Mop it up]

I'm not so sure that Nintendo should listen to what shareholders want. They're all about the short-term profit, whereas Nintendo have to think about how to sustain their business for the long run. Shareholders wouldn't care if Nintendo went out of business tomorrow if they made money today. I'm not really sure what that smart devices comment could mean, as the handheld space isn't where Nintendo is having a problem. The 3DS is doing really well, and so are its games sales. If they think it's under-performing simply because it hasn't sold as well as the DS, it's too high a bar to shoot for the best-selling system in all history. I hope they don't do anything stupid to mess up the good thing they got going with the 3DS because they tried to make it sell like the DS.

As for the Wii U, I'm reminded of a quote I saw in another forum thread about the GameCube: “We are a very small game company. We do not have the resources of these others.” Nintendo can't compete with the tech giants of MS and Sony, they may have created a war chest from the huge profits of the Wii and DS, but they still can't afford to create a beefy system and sell it at a premium price for such extreme losses. Further, I don't see a point in doing that either. Why have three systems on the market that are all essentially the same thing? Heck, we had four during Gen VI (DC, PS2, Xbox, GCN), and it felt completely pointless to me. Nintendo should continue to create their own brand of system like they have with the Wii, Wii U, DS, and 3DS, they just need to find the right thing. For this gen though, their best bet for the long term is to just continue trying to make the Wii U a success. Any other drastic choice is too risky for their small company.

[Miyamoto]

Nintendo has been lazy and greedy for some time now. This was to be expected. Huge changes needed to pull out of this nose-dive. I love Nintendo more than anyone here but I've got no sympathy for them after watching them court disaster for about four years now.

[MagicCow64]

Smartphone comments are somewhat worrying, but could be meant to placate restive shareholders who have been barking for years about putting Nintendo software on mobile platforms.

I agree with the above sentiments that Nintendo is not about to pull the plug on the WiiU. Hybrid or regular console follow-up, there's no way they'll have a platform ready to take its place until 2016 without grievously rushing it. I guess they could start up-converting most of the WiiU software they currently have in development, but given how slow they are at HD development this would probably just put them deeper in the hole and in the meantime leave them as a complete non-entity in the console space for at least a year.

[Kytim89]

Nintendo is getting a double-handed slap of reality. Although I do not see them dumping the Wii U right away, Nintendo will simply try and keep the system as profitable as possible until an alternative is revealed. However, with the way the system is selling Nintendo has defenently accelerated their plans for whatever replaces the Wii U. Honestly, even if Nintendo makes some profit off of the Wii U then Smash Brothers and Mario Kart might be the only big titles that Nintendo makes for the system. They might move development for Zelda Wii U to whatever replaces the console.

[BlackNMild2k1]

By smart device I'm thinking he's referring to all teh smart TV's and companion boxes out there. They are being pushed as the next big thing at CES even though we've had them for a few years now.

If that is the case, then Nintendo could have been ahead of the curve if they just opened up their eShop to more apps. We have Netflix, Hulu+, Amazon & Youtube, but we don't have Pandora, Vudu, Facebook, Twitter, etc etc.
These things add lots of daily and minute to minute free value that would get alot of people to just pick up the controller turn the thing on ever day. Games are a problem they can't seem to solve quick enough (where are all the VC games Nintendo!!?), but apps is where they can start to make some headway.
Open it up for a Disney Channel App and a XfinityTV app and Crackle App and a TV Guide app or whatever other apps you can find out there that people will turn the system on for while not playing games.

I don't really see what Nintendo is doing to reverse their fortunes over the last 6-8 months, but from the outside looking in, it looks like they are sitting on their hands staring out the window and waiting for the rain to stop because they don't want to go outside and get their hands dirty.
And even though good things come to those that wait, I'm not sure how long they expect us to wait for them (MK8, SSBU, Zelda, X, and whatever else they have planned couldn't come soon enough).

[Kytim89]

Curious to know if the Wii U's fortune would improve if Nintendo re-branded the console by changing the name from Wii U to something else, but keeping the console the same?

[NWR_insanolord]

I don't see how that would be at all feasible. I'm not sure if it's possible at this point, but I think that might make things even more confusing for consumers.

[Kytim89]

I don't see how that would be at all feasible. I'm not sure if it's possible at this point, but I think that might make things even more confusing for consumers.

They are already confused by the "Wii" in the console's name. If it was re-named to something more catchy that differentiated it from the Wii then sales might pick up.