Topic: E3 2011 Predictions

[Mop it up]

I'm no fan of RPGs but I don't mind one if it's really good (like Chrono Trigger) or something unique (Earthbound). So it would be nice if the Wii had at least one great RPG, but from what I've read of what it has, there's nothing. If Dragon Quest X actually does release on Wii, I might actually buy it, even though the last Dragon Quest game I've played was Dragon Warrior II on NES and hated it. Save me from the horrors Nintendo, by releasing either XenoBlade or The Last Story!

[King of Twitch]

Reggie doesn't side-step questions; the questions side-step Reggie.

Applaud that man

[Ian Sane]

The crap third party support contributes to the drought in a big way.  But in 2011 what the hell Wii games have even come out?  We're already three months in and it isn't like Nintendo is going to bust something out in April.  If they were they would have announced it already.  The only chance to get anything at all is if we get some sort of surprise release prior to E3 where we only have about a month's notice.  But we know April isn't going to have anything so that's four months at least.

Meanwhile Nintendo has two games that are DONE and they're just sitting on them.  They could easily just plug this hole and they won't.  Even from a business perspective no one buys games that don't get released.  They're selling us NOTHING right now.  Do these games honestly have so little sales potential and releasing no product at all is more worthwhile?  The whole thing just seems like Nintendo is saying "we don't care".

When the Wii was revealed there was concern that Nintendo was selling their old fanbase short and were going to dedicate their focus to the casuals instead.  Every fanboy jumped out of the woodwork to defend Nintendo on this and Nintendo themselves insisted that this was not the case.  Here we have core games that casuals aren't interested in and Nintendo refuses to localize them.  They're only interested in the big mainstream hit.  Well isn't this exactly the situation that the skeptics were concerned about in the first place?  The Wii has huge mega hits and shovelware and jack **** else.  We're questioning the marketability of an RPG on the Wii.  That's casual mainstream market thinking.  Like the idea of niche title that only sells with a specific audience isn't valid.  It's like everything has to sell to the mainstream or it isn't worth releasing.

[NWR_insanolord]

A niche title with a specific audience isn't valid if Nintendo doesn't believe it will be able to make back the cost of localizing and manufacturing and distributing the game. No sane company, especially not Nintendo, is going to take an action it believes will cause it to lose money with no upside.

[Stogi]

I bet you Ian is the same type of person worried about radiation coming over from Japan.

[broodwars]

A niche title with a specific audience isn't valid if Nintendo doesn't believe it will be able to make back the cost of localizing and manufacturing and distributing the game. No sane company, especially not Nintendo, is going to take an action it believes will cause it to lose money with no upside.

Well, in my opinion you have to be willing to take a bit of a loss to make a calculated risk.  Nintendo home consoles will never be known as a place where RPGs can find an audience if Nintendo itself will not release RPGs on them, especially since Nintendo's never given 3rd parties a reason to bring them to their consoles.  And honestly, there's no reason why Xenoblade or Last Story couldn't sell if Nintendo put the kind of marketing behind them that they put behind something like Dragon Quest IX.  I don't think they would because Nintendo wouldn't see Xenoblade & Last Story as having the prestige of the Dragon Quest series to merit such an effort, but if they did I think both games would probably sell respectfully.

[NWR_insanolord]

There's a reason I put the "with no upside" at the end of that. Calculated risks are one thing, but there has to be a high enough potential reward to justify the risk. Nintendo putting a lot of marketing behind the games could make it more successful, but would also increase the risk by requiring Nintendo to put a lot more money in up front.

It's far too late to establish the Wii as an RPG platform, and I highly doubt there's a statistically significant portion of people who don't own a Wii but would buy one to play one or both of these games. Conversely, although there are a lot of Wii owners who would be upset at Nintendo for not bringing them over, I can't imagine there are many people who will be significantly less likely to support the company in the future because of it.

Again, I want Nintendo to bring them over, but this isn't about what I want. I'm simply saying, from a business perspective, I understand why they might not want to do it.

[Ian Sane]

  A niche title with a specific audience isn't valid if Nintendo doesn't believe it will be able to make back the cost of localizing and manufacturing and distributing the game. No sane company, especially not Nintendo, is going to take an action it believes will cause it to lose money with no upside.

Well they shouldn't do it if they can't make a profit.  But I figure they could.  If they can sell Fire Emblem here why not these games?  Thus I think the attitude is more that they don't HAVE to do this because the Wii has already sold like crack and this isn't a for-sure mainstream megahit so why bother?  Nintendo feels they can get away with leaving the Wii userbase to rot with long droughts as long as they localize the can't miss prospects.  It's about putting in the bare minimum amount of effort.

[NWR_insanolord]

Fire Emblem didn't require massive amounts of localized voice acting; English subtitles over Japanese voice acting is not something Nintendo's going to even consider. Fire Emblem was also a proven hit series in Japan for a long time before they brought it over, while Xenoblade and The Last Story had fairly mediocre sales and no established history. Fire Emblem had the benefit of mainstream western interest because of Marth and Roy being in Smash Bros. Those are just a few of the reasons why this is not at all the same situation as Fire Emblem.

[Chozo Ghost]

Maybe there is some risk of the game not selling enough to be worth the localization costs, but risks are exactly the sort of thing Nintendo needs to take. The worst that could happen is they lose a small (to them) amount of money, but there's also the chance of these games being a surprise hit and launching a new franchise they can exploit. If you ask me the potential benefits outweigh the risk.

[NWR_insanolord]

There's a chance it could be a surprise hit in the sense that it's not technically impossible, but realistically it doesn't have great sales potential. There just aren't enough core gamers still buying Wii games for games like these to be really successful. JRPGs don't have the wide appeal in the west that they used to; even big, high profile games like Final Fantasy XIII are seeing disappointing numbers.

I hate to say it, both because I wish it weren't true and because I'm not going to be popular here for saying it, but I think the Wii is a lost cause. Nintendo is certainly still capable of putting out great games for it, but I hope for their sake that they're further along on its successor than it seems like they are.

[Oblivion]

Well, my question is, why isn't the DS in the same boat as the Wii?

[NWR_insanolord]

Because in addition to winning the sales race, the DS is seen by gamers as the dominant handheld, which isn't true of the Wii. Third party support for it has been strong since relatively early on, and because of that third party games sell considerably better on the DS than they do on the Wii, which has in turn encouraged continued support.

[Oblivion]

So basically, the Wii can't get out of this rut it's in? Because sooner or later, the other two consoles with catch up.

[NWR_insanolord]

There's no way Nintendo can get third parties back on the Wii. If they get working on new hardware, taking the lessons they seemed to have learned, as evidenced by what they did with the 3DS, and expanding upon them, and consulting with third parties instead of just making what they think they'll need and **** everyone else, they have a chance to grab a foothold and get an established user base and quality third party software before Microsoft and Sony can respond with new hardware of their own.

[Ian Sane]

I hate to say it, both because I wish it weren't true and because I'm not going to be popular here for saying it, but I think the Wii is a lost cause. Nintendo is certainly still capable of putting out great games for it, but I hope for their sake that they're further along on its successor than it seems like they are.

I totally agree.  The thing is I personally don't care if Nintendo localizes those titles.  I have a PS3.  If I want an RPG I'll pick one up on that system instead.  I don't suffer from Nintendo's droughts anymore because I have another system where games are released on a regular basis.  It's kind of exposed how screwed up Nintendo's consoles have been the last three generations.  It is not normal to deal with droughts like this all the time.  The normal thing is to have so many games to choose from you couldn't possibly dedicate time to them all and you can be as picky as you want and still find tons of stuff to play.
 
But I feel for the odd core gamer who only owns a Wii.  Maybe none exist anymore, which would be a pretty big failure on Nintendo's part.  I remember the last few years on the Gamecube.  It felt like Nintendo just was not trying anymore and did not care.  Since I only owned a Gamecube that really sucked.  It was like they were giving me the finger as reward for my loyalty.  I didn't quit.  I stuck with Nintendo and they quit on me.  Anyone who owns only a Wii and was loyal to Nintendo deserves to have these games localized.  They've been loyal and Nintendo is treating them like garbage.  It isn't the fans who drove the third parties and the core gamers away.  So why should they have to suffer?
 
I felt the same way for Saturn owners.  They saw all sorts of games stay in Japan or come here but as ports on the Playstation.  It's like being punished for loyalty.  In principle it just sucks.

[broodwars]

Well, I'm a mult-console owner, and I still want these games to come over here.  It's been a really weak generation for RPGs outside of Bioware's efforts (and some guilty pleasures of mine like FF XIII), and Xenoblade and Last Story look like two of the very few good games in the genre to be released this generation.

[Chozo Ghost]

It is not normal to deal with droughts like this all the time.  The normal thing is to have so many games to choose from you couldn't possibly dedicate time to them all and you can be as picky as you want and still find tons of stuff to play.

No, but its not entirely Nintendo's fault. Sure, Nintendo could and should be making more of an effort to increase the 1st and 2nd party titles available. I agree with that. But there's not much they can do about the 3rd parties. Its like you have a Birthday party and its a given that your close friends and your family are going to be there, but as for everyone else, you can send the invites but they have no obligation to attend. So you might end up with a really lame party, but what the hell can you do? You can't point a gun at someone and force them to come. That's the problem Nintendo has with 3rd parties which the other two consoles do not have.

And as for the 1st party stuff, even though Nintendo's efforts there could be improved, are they really doing any worse of a job than Sony or Microsoft? If you were to dissect the PS3 or 360's software library and remove every single piece of software that was created by 3rd parties, what would be left? In the 360's case there would be Halo and Viva Pinata and some other stuff, but 90% would be gone. In the PS3's case it would probably a bit better, but still the majority of games would not be there if everything 3rd party suddenly vanished. If that were the case, wouldn't both those system's look like they have the same sort of drought problem the Wii has? Its the 3rd party titles which make the difference. The other guys have that, but Nintendo doesn't. But that's something Nintendo really doesn't have much control over and it isn't fair to slam them over it.

The thing is I personally don't care if Nintendo localizes those titles.  I have a PS3.

So no matter what Nintendo does they can't win with you, because even if they do everything you feel they should you've already moved on to the PS3 and they've basically lost you for good. That's sad, but well, you have that right... But the one thing I don't get is why you continue to complain about the things Nintendo isn't doing right when you just said that even if they did you wouldn't buy it anyway.

[Ian Sane]

But there's not much they can do about the 3rd parties. Its like you have a Birthday party and its a given that your close friends and your family are going to be there, but as for everyone else, you can send the invites but they have no obligation to attend. So you might end up with a really lame party, but what the hell can you do?

The thing is that Sony, MS and Nintendo don't offer the same type of birthday party.  Sony and MS rent out a hall and have music and lots of food and drinks.  It's very flexible and allows for anyone to enjoy themselves.  Show up, grab a drink and have a good time.  Nintendo is like one of those party hosts that has everything planned out meticulously and it's all stuff that they would find interesting but other people might not.  So instead of a hall with dancing, food and drinks, it's held in Nintendo's basement and the party will consist of everyone cooking their own crepes and listening to all of Pink Floyd's albums in their entirety in order of release.  It's super fun if that fits your very specific tastes but totally lame if it doesn't.
 
Nintendo is hosting a party that is going to be lame to begin with.  That is the problem.  That's why it is mostly their own fault.  They host a party that caters specifically to themselves but is of little interest to everyone else.
 
It's ironic that a company that is so focused on making "everyone games" that everyone could like makes virtually no effort in designing hardware that every developer could like.  I mean the correct approach is right in their face at all times.
 

So no matter what Nintendo does they can't win with you, because even if they do everything you feel they should you've already moved on to the PS3 and they've basically lost you for good.

No, that's not true at all.  I'm annoyed that with the Wii that I felt I eventually had to buy another console.  I like the PS3 but I really like Nintendo's first party games.  The third party situation just eventually got to me and I couldn't take it anymore.  Plus I don't like the direction Nintendo has gone in with this casual stuff.  I feel it has negatively affected the quality of their games, particularly the controls.
 
I see myself as a fan of what Nintendo was.  It's like I'm still a fan but they've changed in a way that pushes me out.  I don't want that.  Frankly it sucks.  But if they got their **** together I'd be right back in a second.  I WANT to be a fan but that doesn't mean I blindy tolerate everything.  I want them to make it worthwhile for me to be a fan.  Being the casual shovelware console that is completely segregated from gaming culture ain't what I'm interested in.  Essentially Nintendo has made a console that I think just blantantly SUCKS.  It has a few great games but overall I really don't like it and will not remember it fondly.
 
But Nintendo is very capable of making a great console and that's what I would like them to do.  It's too late with the Wii.  It was too late years ago.  But I would love it if they could make the Wii 2 a great console.  But that means having hardware that can compete with the other current systems, and designing control schemes entirely around what works BEST, and making the best games they can and not lazy glorified mini-game comps that sucker in casuals that don't know better.  I feel like the Wii gets almost EVERYTHING wrong in regards to the goal of making great videogames.  Great videogames exist on the Wii despite it, not at all because of it.  The Wii seems like a con, from its repacked last gen hardware, to its gimmicky controller, to it's glorified tech demo Wii Series games.  It's like Nintendo's goal was "how can we release a new console without actually going to the trouble of making a new console and still get people to buy it?"

[Stratos]

And I think it is smart business sense to bring those titles here even if they are a loss. They need to foster some good will with the fans. They are making arm loads of money and that means they can afford to take these risks. Odds are for most of these games they will break even especially with the current drought. There isn't really anything else to buy on Wii.

[n-phage]

Nintendo is hosting a party that is going to be lame to begin with.  That is the problem.  That's why it is mostly their own fault.  They host a party that caters specifically to themselves but is of little interest to everyone else.

I really don't think that the lack of third party support has nearly as much to do with the capabilities of the Wii as you do.  I think a large part of it actually stems more from trend of decreasing support on the N64 and the Gamecube.  Whether or not that is Nintendo's fault or not can be left for a different discussion.  By the time the Wii came around third parties were already hesitant to support the Nintendo consoles.  So when the Wii did release pretty much all that was available from third parties was rushed ports (Far Cry) and rushed games that did not live up to expectations (Red Steel).  None of which left a very good impression for these companies.
 
Once the Wii's success became clear all of the third parties were caught off guard so had to rush to release more games that were again either rushed ports (Dead Rising), rehashes of games they already released (Rabbids 2 and Rabbids TV Party), or that didn't have enough development time.  Which again didn't leave a good impression with customers.
 
So after a few years into the Wii's life some third parties finally got their act together and started releasing quality titles (Red Steel 2, Dead Space Extraction, Rabbids Go Home).  By this time nobody is willing to buy there games anymore because there are afraid they will be crap.  You have to make a market for you product by creating interest and earning your customers trust.  Third parties didn't do that and Nintendo shouldn't have had to do it for them.
 
To say that it is all the fault of the Wii's capabilities or Nintendo's fault in general that there is poor third party support is ridiculous.  Also, all of the complaints that you make about the Wii could be said about the DS, but it has some of the best third party support ever. 
 
I could also make plenty of comments about your complaint about the Wii controller harming third party support.  If I can use the Wii remote to control pretty much any game on the PC (Borderlands, Lara Croft: Guardian of Light, Dead Space, Runes of Magic, etc.) without any troubles then there is no good reason that third parties couldn't have made any PS3 or 360 game control fine on the Wii, also.
 
Regardless I agree that there is no hope for third party games on the Wii, but that still doesn't mean that Nintendo's core games can't be successful.

[SixthAngel]

Nintendo, MS and Sony all throw a party.  MS's party starts early so some devs go there to start their night and see what happens.  Devs remember Nintendo's last party so don't want to go and instead wait for Sony's.

Nintendo's party is huge and everybody comes but the devs think it will die down and everybody will come to the parties they joined.

Nintendo's party stays huge and keeps getting bigger.  The devs say they don't want to go because the cool kids aren't there.  They send over their least popular friend so he can tell them if everyone is having a good time there.

Nobody likes their friend so he didn't really enjoy himself but its obvious that Nintendo's party is one to remember.  The devs look at their watch and realize its 12:00.  It will take an hour to drive to the party and by that time it will already be winding down.  They decide to stay where they are and have what fun they can.  They all realize they missed the party of the decade so they justify it to themselves by talking **** about Nintendo with their friends.

I like the party analogy

[Nemo]

But I feel for the odd core gamer who only owns a Wii.  Maybe none exist anymore

Nope. I exist. You're talking about me.

[ymeegod]

Nintendo just doesn't share the wealth.  That's my biggest gripe about them--why would they throw out a bone to third parties developer when that's going affect thier own sales . 

Their warchest is 50+ billion or so and I bet anything they can't find the key for it now.  They can with ease take a loss on hardware and make it a bit more powerful but to them that would be mistake.  Sure it would effect shortterm gains but what condition would Sony or MS be in now if Nintendo launched the WII with HD graphics back in 2006.  Just because the WII was a success doesn't mean Sony cant bounce right back next generation.

Went multiplatform since the N64 drought.

[Chozo Ghost]

HD graphics alone would not have made the Wii as powerful as its competitors. Imagine an HD Wii that still has the same problem of friend codes, low RAM, a weak processor, only 512MB of internal storage, and so on. How would everyone here feel about the Wii if it had HD graphics but still was exactly the same in every other respect? If anything adding HD graphics might have made the console even less powerful, because it would have sapped what limited processing ability the hardware had into HD graphics and left even less available for other things.

Although HD would be a nice feature, it is far from the only feature the Wii is in need of, and in my opinion among the things the Wii is lacking HD output ranks pretty low on the list of priorities. I'd rather see the processor and RAM seriously beefed up and I would also like to see an internal HDD provided so that 3rd parties can actually bring multiplatform games without having to water them down and strip stuff out as with COD Black Ops where things like Killcams and certain zombie modes and various other things were stripped out just because the hardware couldn't handle it. Merely being able to display in HD would not solve this problem whatsoever in any way shape or form.