Topic: 2014 Nintendo Prediction

[relewis2011]

In honor and anticipation of the Radio Free Nintendo annual 2014 Nintendo Predictions, I thought what better time than for the audience to start to get the ball rolling with some of their own predictions. Be it bold, vague, or inevitably going to happen, I encourage you to post 3-5 (or more!) predictions that you have for Nintendo in the coming year. I'm not using this as a chance to plug my YT channel by any means, but I have recently recorded an episode in excitement of what RFN has to say in next weeks podcast episode.


So, what does Nintendo have to do to save the Wii U? Which 3DS games do you see over the horizon being announced? Will Nintendo forgo Wii U production and return to the magnificent hardware that was the Virtual Boy? Wait...what? 

My 5 predictions (one of which I stole from the ONE, the ONLY...J Lindy):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Iu6Do-ElFc

[Adrock]

1. Super Smash Bros. will be a late summer release on Wii U, a winter release on 3DS.

2. Super Smash Bros. will have DLC.

3. Metroid will return to 2D.

4. 3DS will get a port of Ultra Street Fighter IV.

5. I was going to say that Nintendo of America is going to release the Wii Remote Rapid Charging Cradle and Rechargeable Battery and not tell everyone, but I double checked and they totally already did that. I had no idea this was available in their online store and I've been waiting for this to come out.

Real 5. Sonic will show up in Mario Kart 8.

[Shaymin]

I'm with you on the split releases for Smash, except it'll be November for the WiiU and sometime in 2015 for the 3DS.

[Adrock]

I think both games make it this year and I expect them a bit earlier due to timing. Kid Icarus Uprising was released in March 2012 and development on Super Smash Bros. began after that, probably around May or June. Nintendo was smart enough to get Namco Bandai, who has experience with both fighting games and HD development, to develop the games. Due to a variety of factors (e.g. access to source code, familiarity with development tools), they probably haven't run into any snags. Unless Nintendo withholds the games (and they really can't afford to on Wii U), releasing a little over two years since development started isn't a bad estimate. The Wii U version seems to be the priority since we often see much more of it in trailers and Miiverse updates. On top of that, if Nintendo withholds any version, it should be the 3DS one because it needs the game less. I would hope Nintendo is smart enough to learn from releasing New Super Mario Bros. 2 on 3DS before New Super Mario Bros. U on Wii U.

[Pixelated Pixies]

Here goes. The following are my hyper specific predictions.

1. Yoshi's New Island will receive a Metacritic rating of 72. Polygon's Philip Kollar will lament that while the art style is well intentioned it does not come together in a cohesive or satisfying way, thus failing to live up to Nintendo's previous efforts to portray a world comprised of arts and crafts materials.

2. Nintendo will return to the Nokia theatre and will host a full E3 Press Conference. The conference will begin with a comical video in which Reggie is shown, in his hotel room, putting on a jacket. Reggie looks at his reflection in the mirror, takes a breath, and tells himself 'Your body is ready', he smiles, and leaves his room.

At the reception desk a young woman asks Mr Fils-Aime if he requires a taxi. Reggie replies 'No'. As Reggie makes his way across the car park he removes a set of keys from his inner right pocket and walks in the direction of his parked vehicle. The camera then pans to reveal Samus Aran's ship (or rather a cheap looking computer generated equivalent). Reggie smiles again. Upon conclusion of the video Reggie will stride on to the stage while the following music plays.

He will then look back over his shoulder and press the button on his keys just as the audience hear a sharp beep sound coming through the auditorium speakers, the joke being that Reggie forgot to lock the ship behind him.

He will announce that Retro Studios have been working on a follow up to their acclaimed Prime Trilogy, that the tentative title is Metroid: Extinction, and that it will be released in Early 2015 (At a later date this will be delayed until Summer 2016).

3. A 3DS revision will be unveiled which will not offer a second Circle Pad, better screens, or indeed anything meaningful at all. The D-Pad will be moved a few milometers to the left, a slight alteration to the shoulder buttons will make them imperceptibly bigger, and the face buttons will remain just a little too small for people with average sized hands. A significant proportion of existing 3DS owners will opt to upgrade anyway.

[Khushrenada]

Hmmm.

I predict Nintendo will release games for the 3DS and the Wii U. People will not be happy with the majority of these offerings. They will wish Nintendo made something else instead. They will then still buy the games.

It's a bold prediction, I know, but that's the fun thing about these kinds of threads. The chance to go wild. Who knows? It might even come true.

As for games, I predict that Nintendo will release Donkey Kong Country Returns 2, Super Smash Bros. Brouhaha, Mario Kart Hypserspace and Bayonetta 2: Hardcore Weeps for the Wii U.

As for the 3DS, there hasn't been a Mario Sports title released in awhile so maybe Mario Golf: Bogie Nights, Kirby: I can haz cheesburger? 3D, Yoshi's New though still kind of Old Island, Super Smash Bros. Brouhaha Brouhaho, Bravely Defaulted: Fairy Foreclosure, Professor Layton and the plot to kill Hitler but really just make you find and solve puzzles 6, Professor Layton Vs Ace Attorney: Deathgrudge and Chibi-Robo: Photo Finder, Money Loser.

In case you think I'm being negative on Nintendo with those titles, I'm just being silly so relax.

[lolmonade]

If I were to take a few stabs in the dark:
 
1) Smash Bros will have DLC, as stated by Adrock.  Specifically, they'll have purchasable characters, but not levels.  People will cry foul about how Nintendo withheld characters just to use for DLC.
 
2) Mario will be given a break from platforming games, and the only Mario centric announcement in 2014 will be a new Super Mario Strikers for Wii U & 3DS, & Possibly Mario Party U.
 
3) Because of the gap less Mario will have, 2014 will be the year of alternate franchise announcements for Wii U & 3DS.  By E3, expect an official Metroid & Zelda U announcement.  Additional dark-horse candidates for a new game would be Pikmin 3DS, Fire Emblem U, or Starfox.  These games when released will be critically successfull, but will be middling in retail sales.
 
4) Nintendo will have better sales in 2014, but only enough to make the Wii U a minor failure instead of a catastrophic one.
 
5) Nintendo will launch Gamecube virtual console for Wii U, with first titles being Eternal Darkness, Luigi's Mansion, & F-Zero GX.  Sorry, F-Zero fans, that's the only F-Zero title that'll be released for this console generation, unless:
 
6) Nintendo releases an e-shop exclusive F-Zero game for 3DS.  It'll be a bare-bones version of the game, with a similar feature set to the SNES original, including online multiplayer.  This'll be Nintendo's biggest foray into F2P yet, requiring additional purchases for new tracks & racers.
 
 

[azeke]

Smash bros won't have DLC.


Oksy now to actual predictions...


There will be some games! I'll get to play some of them. That's really all i care about.

[Adrock]

1) Smash Bros will have DLC, as stated by Adrock.  Specifically, they'll have purchasable characters, but not levels.  People will cry foul about how Nintendo withheld characters just to use for DLC.

I'm thinking the opposite. Stages and costumes, but not characters and only because they would have to do a lot more work, not because people would complain. I would have doubted Super Smash Bros. (or any Nintendo title for that matter) would ever have paid DLC until Nintendo finally popped that cherry. Super Smash Bros. is a total gold mine for this too. Even someone like myself who has never paid for DLC before would strongly consider it especially if there was a Season Pass.

[smallsharkbigbite]

It would be sweet if instead of a season pass, Nintendo had a Nintendo pass.  $X per year for all Nintendo download content for any Nintendo game.  Most of us buy Nintendo hardware for Nintendo games and have many of them.  As long as you still allow individual DLC, I don't see an issue with that. 

[ShyGuy]

Steel Diver Wii U F2P MMO.

[Sarail]

1) Smash Bros will have DLC, as stated by Adrock.  Specifically, they'll have purchasable characters, but not levels.  People will cry foul about how Nintendo withheld characters just to use for DLC.

I'm thinking the opposite. Stages and costumes, but not characters and only because they would have to do a lot more work, not because people would complain. I would have doubted Super Smash Bros. (or any Nintendo title for that matter) would ever have paid DLC until Nintendo finally popped that cherry. Super Smash Bros. is a total gold mine for this too. Even someone like myself who has never paid for DLC before would strongly consider it especially if there was a Season Pass.

Fire Emblem: Awakening says hi. And I still haven't bought all of that game's DLC - it's so good, though.

[BranDonk Kong]

DLC for Smash Bros. is a no brainer. There will be DLC, period.

[Khushrenada]

1) Smash Bros will have DLC, as stated by Adrock.  Specifically, they'll have purchasable characters, but not levels.  People will cry foul about how Nintendo withheld characters just to use for DLC.

I'm thinking the opposite. Stages and costumes, but not characters and only because they would have to do a lot more work, not because people would complain. I would have doubted Super Smash Bros. (or any Nintendo title for that matter) would ever have paid DLC until Nintendo finally popped that cherry. Super Smash Bros. is a total gold mine for this too. Even someone like myself who has never paid for DLC before would strongly consider it especially if there was a Season Pass.

Fire Emblem: Awakening says hi. And I still haven't bought all of that game's DLC - it's so good, though.

He is aware that paid DLC content for a Nintendo title exists like Fire Emblem. That is why he says he would have at one time doubted that DLC for Smash Bros. would happen had Nintendo not finally started DLC content for some of their games in the last year. He used a sexual metaphor to emphasize that knowledge because that's what the cool kids understand.

[Oblivion]

X will probably not live up to the hype since the fans (including myself) have elevated this game to god status.


The Wii U will continue to be a train wreak, but probably not as bad as 2013.


Super Smash Bros. Wii U will fail to bring back the Melee fans but will attract new players and Brawl fans. The 3DS version will sell more than the Wii U version but will not be very good.


Virtual Console will continue to be shitty as it has been for years.


Bravely Default will not live up to the hype.


2DSXL.


Sadly, most of my predictions are not positive.

[Sarail]

Haha, Khush... I completely gazed over that part. Thanks for pointing it out.

[nickmitch]

Super Smash Bros will release in Summer.

DLC will be old stages.

Wii U Zelda at E3, trailer, no demo.

Nintendo reluctantly speaks on Metroid, no games announced.

A reporter asks Reggie about a new F-Zero, he dodges the question.

Nintendo buys something surprising.

[lolmonade]

1) Smash Bros will have DLC, as stated by Adrock.  Specifically, they'll have purchasable characters, but not levels.  People will cry foul about how Nintendo withheld characters just to use for DLC.

I'm thinking the opposite. Stages and costumes, but not characters and only because they would have to do a lot more work, not because people would complain. I would have doubted Super Smash Bros. (or any Nintendo title for that matter) would ever have paid DLC until Nintendo finally popped that cherry. Super Smash Bros. is a total gold mine for this too. Even someone like myself who has never paid for DLC before would strongly consider it especially if there was a Season Pass.

I'm not suggesting they would have A LOT of DLC characters, but considering how substantive their other DLC offerings have been, I wouldn't put it past them to add more content of that type after the fact, if they could sell it at a good profit.

[Kyle98632]

My bold predictions:

1) The Wii U actually has a better year in 2014, topping the 10 million lifetime sales mark by the end of the year.

2) Nintendo stuns at E3 with a new game in the Earthbound series underway.

3) Work is announced that in 2015 you will be able to link your 3DS to your Wii U and play a wide array of 3DS games on your home TV (no 3d effect of course).

4) Animal Crossing for the Wii U is announced.

5) Mario Kart 8 will have a Rainbow Road track.

[pokepal148]

My wild and absolutely crazy prediction is that people will complain there aren't enough games on the wii u

[Adrock]

I'm not suggesting they would have A LOT of DLC characters, but considering how substantive their other DLC offerings have been, I wouldn't put it past them to add more content of that type after the fact, if they could sell it at a good profit.

The main reason I'm doubting DLC characters is because Sakurai oversees the entire character creation process from choosing the moves to balancing to entering the hit boxes. Once the games officially go gold, I can't really see him devoting a significant amount of time to additional content as he typically moves from one project to the next.

That said, the only way I can see DLC characters happening is if Sakurai created them before completing the game and planned them as DLC which doesn't really seem like his style. In Brawl, you can unlock all the characters through a variety of ways, the easiest by simply playing matches and they unlock eventually. It seems like Sakurai wants people to have all the characters so unlocking them is never especially complicated or taxing. It doesn't necessarily reward players for skill but rather for just playing the game. For the amount of work that goes into the creative process of developing a character, the possibility that people might not pay to access a character doesn't really mesh with the spirit of the series. Not saying it won't happen, just that I don't expect it to.

Something like stages or costumes require far less input from Sakurai. They can send him their progress and he can demo them. DLC stages probably wouldn't be cruise-style stages either. I can see them being mostly static, maybe a gimmick or two.

There is a lot money to be made which is why I think Nintendo will want to capitalize. Ultimately, I think it comes down to what Sakurai wants to do. Regardless of what the bean counters say, if Sakurai says, "No DLC," Iwata will back him up.

2) Nintendo stuns at E3 with a new game in the Earthbound series underway.

I wish, but not going to happen. Shigesato Itoi has gone on record stating the series is over. I could see Nintendo remaking the games at some point, definitely not this year.

[Ian Sane]

Nintendo will release the 3DS SSB a few months earlier than the Wii U version.  The Wii U version will then sell less than expected and not increase Wii U sales in any notable way and Nintendo will scratch their heads wondering why.

Nintendo will surprise at E3... with something underwhelming.  A 2D platformer will be revealed (because we never have enough of those) and/or some Mii focused title that core gamers couldn't possibly give a **** about.

At certain points last year I predicted that the Wii U would be discontinued in 2014.  I guess I should stick to that prediction, though I'm less confident in it now.  Not because the Wii U is selling so great but because I'm iffy on Nintendo's willingness to can it.  I figure they'll stubbornly stick to their guns for a lot longer than other companies would.  The console will not turn around this year or ever.  If it lives a normal length life it will do so limping along on a handful of Nintendo releases and pretty much no third party support and will be doomed to Turbo Duo-esque obscurity.

If Nintendo bounces back on the console front in 2014 it will be with something drastic.  Higher-ups losing jobs.  The Wii U getting discontinued and a replacement being revealed or the console being altered in some way (ie: ditching the Gamepad and fixing old games through firmware).  Games and partnerships with third parties that you would never expect from Nintendo.  The Wii U will not be saved by any cliché Nintendo sequels like Mario Kart and SSB.  If things change they will be big as in the sort of thing that would signify a change in Nintendo's corporate culture.

[NWR_insanolord]

Nintendo won't discontinue the Wii U until they have a successor ready to go, and there's no way that's happening this year.

[nickmitch]

I dunno.  Didn't Nintendo once say that a GBA successor was ready in case the DS failed?  They could've easily come up with a similar contingency for Wii U.

[BlackNMild2k1]

DS was a known risk and a "Third Pillar" so a contingency plan was expected.

Wii U was the direct follow up to Nintendo's most successful home console ever, which also incorporated ideas from it's most successful handheld ever (dual screen & touch screen). So I'm sure that to Nintendo, this was almost the surest bet they could make, the safest approach at bringing it all together into one product.

Unfortunately it, was either too little and way too late, or it was executed backwards. We will never know for sure, but I doubt they have a Wii Too waiting in the wings just incase the sure bet that was the Wii U failed for some unforseen circumstance.

[Ian Sane]

Nintendo's hardware teams are apparently always working on the next console.  Odds are if asked to deliver something quickly they could do it.  The problem is the logistics of having the physical hardware manufactured in significant enough quantities to launch in a decent timeframe.  Another problem is having games developed in time.  If Nintendo was to release a new console this year they would have had to start planning it last year some time, so they would have had to start recognizing that the Wii U was going to flop pretty early on.

If the DS flopped I think Nintendo could literally have just taken the same hardware, ditch the extra doodads like the touchscreen, and just change the cartridge shape and they would have had a decent new Game Boy.  Only hardcore tech geeks would know that it was just a repackaging of the failed DS and it would be really easy for devs to switch their DS projects to the new Game Boy.  The contingency system was built into the console itself.  It was like if a good replacement for the Wii U would just be a recycled Wii U without the Gamepad.  Now could I see Nintendo coming to THAT insane conclusion and then bombing yet again?  Maybe.

[NWR_insanolord]

Rushing an early idea for a console to market could very easily make things even worse than they are now. They shouldn't launch a successor that they aren't confident in and prepared for, and there's no way they're there at this point.

[Ian Sane]

I agree they shouldn't rush a console.  But I also think the Wii U need to be replaced ASAP before the PS4 and XB1 completely lock down the console market.

So I guess I think Nintendo is pretty damned screwed.  I would be aim for late 2015 but if I was in charge of Nintendo and somehow let the Wii U out the door I would have been planning to replace it for quite a while now, like pretty much around the time the competition was revealed, so I might have made late 2014.  Nintendo probably won't even consider the idea until they get the Christmas 2013 figures in.  But they should have been working on a contingency plan the second the PS4 was revealed and leapfrogged their specs for what at the time was only $50 more.

How do you replace a console that's flopping?  Sega is the only company to even attempt it and it didn't work (though the Dreamcast was a great system and Nintendo is in better financial shape than Sega was).  Everyone else exited the console market or the whole company just died off.

[Adrock]

Nintendo doesn't need to replace Wii U. Every time they release a new game, sales rise. This is not complicated. A Nintendo console without Nintendo games is about as useful as it sounds. Until people stop buying Nintendo games, there's no need to panic.

And you brought up specs again. Internet punch to the face for you.

[NWR_insanolord]

If the releases keep coming and, more importantly, Nintendo can develop and effectively implement a coherent marketing strategy, the Wii U is capable of being at least moderately successful. We're talking about GameCube-level sales, which won't be great, and will result in very shitty third party support, but it will make Nintendo money, and get them through to their next console.

[Luigi Dude]

Considering the Wii U's 2014 lineup is much stronger then 2013, the notion they'll even think about canceling the system at any point in 2014 just ridicules.  The fact Nintendo waited until Mario 3D World was released at the end of November to start advertising the system shows even they knew how weak their lineup was for the rest of 2013.  If the Wii U's 2013 sales were going to be the decider for the systems future they would have released Donkey Kong during the Fall and found a way to rush Mario Kart 8 for the holidays as well.

The fact they didn't shows they're still committed to a longer future for the system instead of the "OMG Kill it now after one bad year" attitude some on the internet like to shout.

[Khushrenada]

You all talkin' WII U?!?!
OMG Kill it now after one bad year

[BranDonk Kong]

Worked for Sega.

[Ian Sane]

Well this is a long term prediction but I figure if the Wii U isn't replaced within the next two years then it, or its successor, will be Nintendo's last console.  Even if the Wii U hangs on to a normal lifespan it is so ill-suited to compete with the PS4 and XB1 that it will just demolish any remaining cultural relevance or consumer goodwill Nintendo will have in the console market and its successor will be incapable of overcoming that.  Nintendo will either decide to not bother with consoles anymore or the market will just so soundly reject any new Nintendo console, even if it's legitimately great, that the Wii U successor will bomb in a way that Nintendo has to discontinue it.

[Khushrenada]

That's what people thought about the Gamecube but then Wii came along and completely changed things. With the Gamecube to Wii market share and sales example an actual fact (a thing that occurred), it doesn't matter how poorly a console performs or if it ends up dead last in a generation, there will always be the opportunity and potential that a company can change its fortune in the next generation and lead the market, thus making the previous generation irrelevant to future success.

[BranDonk Kong]

I really thinking calling it the "Wii U" was a horrible idea. This girl I work with (keep in mind we work in a shop where we repair game consoles, and both of us have PS4s) didn't even know what the Wii U was a couple of days ago. Even Wii 2 would have been a better name.

[Ceric]

I really thinking calling it the "Wii U" was a horrible idea. This girl I work with (keep in mind we work in a shop where we repair game consoles, and both of us have PS4s) didn't even know what the Wii U was a couple of days ago. Even Wii 2 would have been a better name.

What I heard was that the Wii U doesn't break that often or is non-Repairable.

[Ian Sane]

That's what people thought about the Gamecube but then Wii came along and completely changed things. With the Gamecube to Wii market share and sales example an actual fact (a thing that occurred), it doesn't matter how poorly a console performs or if it ends up dead last in a generation, there will always be the opportunity and potential that a company can change its fortune in the next generation and lead the market, thus making the previous generation irrelevant to future success.

At the time I figured Nintendo could bounce back from the Gamecube but I'm far more pessimistic about the Wii U.  Part of why the Wii U isn't selling is because Nintendo burned their bridge with core gamers.  The Wii's success is largely due to attracting a new casual audience that has promptly left Nintendo for tablets and smartphones.  So core gamers want nothing to do with Nintendo as a console maker, casuals aren't interested, third parties aren't supporting them and after five years of this it will just be worse.  All they really have are the Nintendo fans and how many of them are going to put up with five years where Nintendo releases like four games a year and there's pretty much nothing else to play?

At the very least the Wii U has gotten off to such a shitty start that Nintendo should be re-evaluating their strategy and coming up with a new plan.  It would be idiotic to just stay on the same course and sleepwalk their way through the rest of Wii U's life.  Some changes need to be made, if not by replacing the console outright, then with some new focus in marketing, third party policies, online features, game development, etc.  If they're just going to keep releasing cookie-cutter sequels at their current extremely slow pace while third parties bail then they're going to just destroy any value the Nintendo brand name has in the console market.

The Wii found a new audience and that is the sole reason its fate wasn't the same as the Wii U's.  Nintendo cannot rely on that ever again.  It was a once-in-a-lifetime situation.

[marvel_moviefan_2012]

Doesn't look like hardly any major predictions actually came true from last year.


I will make one for 2015, Splatoon will be the killer App Wii U has been waiting for.

[Khushrenada]

Doesn't look like hardly any major predictions actually came true from last year.

Watchyu talkin' bout Willis?

Hmmm.

I predict Nintendo will release games for the 3DS and the Wii U. People will not be happy with the majority of these offerings. They will wish Nintendo made something else instead. They will then still buy the games.

It's a bold prediction, I know, but that's the fun thing about these kinds of threads. The chance to go wild. Who knows? It might even come true.

As for games, I predict that Nintendo will release Donkey Kong Country Returns 2, Super Smash Bros. Brouhaha, Mario Kart Hypserspace and Bayonetta 2: Hardcore Weeps for the Wii U.

As for the 3DS, there hasn't been a Mario Sports title released in awhile so maybe Mario Golf: Bogie Nights, Kirby: I can haz cheesburger? 3D, Yoshi's New though still kind of Old Island, Super Smash Bros. Brouhaha Brouhaho, Bravely Defaulted: Fairy Foreclosure, Professor Layton and the plot to kill Hitler but really just make you find and solve puzzles 6, Professor Layton Vs Ace Attorney: Deathgrudge and Chibi-Robo: Photo Finder, Money Loser.

Nailed it! 100%. My time machine never fails me.