Topic: PlayStation4 - News/Rumor/Speculation - Over 1 Million Sold on Day 1

[ShyGuy]

How Microsoft plays it hand depends on how big their kinect/casual sales end up for holiday 2011, and how much their media center "stealth" program makes in-roads into the living room.

If those both flop, their only play they have with the Xbox 720 is to appeal to the hardcore, which is the most expensive option.

[SixthAngel]

Going the Wii route seems like what they have to do.
It's Sony so you never know though, they're determined to use the PS as a tool to leverage their **** into everything.

[Ian Sane]

If Sony goes the Wii route they can expect me to not purchase it.  I'm not interested in "more accessible" games and if there is no significant hardware boost, there is no point.  The Wii just gave me more Gamecube games with crappier controls.  I'm not going to buy a new system to play games that COULD be made for the PS3 and just aren't for pretty much arbitrary reasons.  The Wii model is a gyp.

Sony has the core gamer market.  The Wii demonstrates that if you make too many concessions to non-gamers and casuals, the core will be turned off.  So what does Sony want to do?

[Chozo Ghost]

It looks like Sony and Nintendo are converging to the same target in their next consoles. Nintendo already has the Casuals and is trying to make itself more hardcore; whereas Sony already has the hardcore and is now trying to go after the casuals. So they are both coveting what the other company has and it looks like they are probably going to meet somewhere in the middle.

Its good for Nintendo that Sony isn't planning on making the PS4 be some huge leap forward over the PS3, because the Wii U certainly isn't going to be a huge leap over the PS3 either. This means they will be more or less on par, I think. That's great for multi-platform games support.

It is still up in the air what Microsoft is aiming for, though. Is the next Xbox going to follow a similar more moderate path? Or is Microsoft going to go all out and leave both competitors in the dust?

[Ceric]

Honestly for MS I really see them having dedicated hardware for Kinect again.  I think that will be the biggest change.

[Luigi Dude]

Or is Microsoft going to go all out and leave both competitors in the dust?

The shareholders have made it clear that Microsoft can't do that next gen.  The Xbox brand is still billions of dollars in the hole.  Only in the last few years has Microsoft finally started to make money but they're still no wear close to making up the billions lost.  Because of this the games division of Microsoft is not going to be able to release a system that was as powerful for it's time as the 360 was that cost billions more to make.
 
This is why if the Wii U is as powerful as some of the rumors say it is, it can easily be a PS2 type of machine that can get ports from the other systems since there's a good chance Microsoft and Sony new systems won't be that much more powerful this time around.

[blackfootsteps]

@Luigi Dude

I wonder how big a component the RRoD problem was of those losses. It had to be significant.

[oohhboy]

It cost Microsoft a cool Billion+ dollars, years of bad press and lost good will. "Significant" is an understatement. It was near ended their chances this gen, but somehow survived propped up by unusually rabid fanboys that were willing to buy multiple new boxes (Especially before the warranty extension) or wait for the month turnaround multiple times until they got a machine that wasn't "Refurbished". The failure rate was so high that even if you don't own a 360, you would more than likely knew someone who did, and it broke down on them at least once if not multiple times.

Source.

[BlackNMild2k1]

It cost them more than a Billion. $1Billion is just what they set aside specifically for the RRoD problems before shuffling their divisions around to hide the losses. They spent untold millions on the problem before that pre-pay in 2007/2008.

[Chozo Ghost]

$1 billion isn't all that much for Microsoft, though. Bill Gates has like $100 billion himself, and he is just one person associated with the company.

[SixthAngel]

If Nintendo and Sony both have similarly powerful systems Microsoft has to follow them even if they can take the loss.  There is no way that just the xbox would be able to support developers in such a high end environment unless it starts destroying sales records.  Unless both the WiiU and PS4 bombed in this hypothetical situation MS would be in a Wii like situation with none of the benefits thanks to the much higher development fees and an almost assuredly much smaller userbase.  Xbox is shitty enough for Japanese games already but imagine it without the PS3 for the games to be ported to and from.

[SixthAngel]

How much of the Wii U controller do you think Sony will copy?

they've copied every single one of their controller innovations so far and they made a mistake by halfassing the motion controls at first.  They have to be thinking about how they can take the controller idea right now.

[Ceric]

How much of the Wii U controller do you think Sony will copy?

they've copied every single one of their controller innovations so far and they made a mistake by halfassing the motion controls at first.  They have to be thinking about how they can take the controller idea right now.

They did.  Its called a Vita. By the time the next console comes out they will be able to lower the cost of most everything in it and make the Vitaxis for the next controller.  Just like a Vita with a smaller processor and no way to play portable games or you could just use your Vita.

[Luigi Dude]

I think this topic badly needs this chart.

If Nintendo and Sony both have similarly powerful systems Microsoft has to follow them even if they can take the loss.  There is no way that just the xbox would be able to support developers in such a high end environment unless it starts destroying sales records.  Unless both the WiiU and PS4 bombed in this hypothetical situation MS would be in a Wii like situation with none of the benefits thanks to the much higher development fees and an almost assuredly much smaller userbase.  Xbox is shitty enough for Japanese games already but imagine it without the PS3 for the games to be ported to and from.

That's right, Microsoft needs to have a profitable business model in the next gen.  As the chart shows, Microsoft has only recently started to finally climb out of the hole they dug with the Xbox brand from 2001-2007.  The cost of the 360 alone lost them several billion and that's not counting the billion more RRoD lost them.  If Microsoft was to release a much more powerful system like the 360, they'd instantly lose all the money they made in the last 4 years and end up making the current hole much bigger. 

Even though Microsofts a huge company, the shareholders of the company are not happy with the fact they've still lost 5 billion on it, and if the gaming division was to lose another several billion on just releasing a new system alone, I'd expect the Microsoft games division to be shut down and everyone involved with it fired from the company.  Companies like Microsoft are in the market solely to make money and if you have a certain division that's almost a decade old and continues to lose money instead of make money, it won't be around for long.

If the people running Microsofts games division want to keep their jobs, they'll need to release a new system that's actually profitable this time.  Because if they release another 360, they're all gone.

[Chozo Ghost]

If Nintendo and Sony both have similarly powerful systems Microsoft has to follow them even if they can take the loss.  There is no way that just the xbox would be able to support developers in such a high end environment unless it starts destroying sales records.  Unless both the WiiU and PS4 bombed in this hypothetical situation MS would be in a Wii like situation with none of the benefits thanks to the much higher development fees and an almost assuredly much smaller userbase.  Xbox is shitty enough for Japanese games already but imagine it without the PS3 for the games to be ported to and from.

But the games do not need to take full advantage of the more powerful hardware in order for them to be ported to it. Let's assume Microsoft takes another big loss and leapfrogs the competition with a system that leaves them in the dust. So does this mean PS4/WiiU games can't be ported to it? No, they can still be ported to it. They just won't take full advantage of the more powerful hardware is all.

[SixthAngel]

If Nintendo and Sony both have similarly powerful systems Microsoft has to follow them even if they can take the loss.  There is no way that just the xbox would be able to support developers in such a high end environment unless it starts destroying sales records.  Unless both the WiiU and PS4 bombed in this hypothetical situation MS would be in a Wii like situation with none of the benefits thanks to the much higher development fees and an almost assuredly much smaller userbase.  Xbox is shitty enough for Japanese games already but imagine it without the PS3 for the games to be ported to and from.

But the games do not need to take full advantage of the more powerful hardware in order for them to be ported to it. Let's assume Microsoft takes another big loss and leapfrogs the competition with a system that leaves them in the dust. So does this mean PS4/WiiU games can't be ported to it? No, they can still be ported to it. They just won't take full advantage of the more powerful hardware is all.

But that destroys the reason for buying a more expensive, graphically intensive system.  If there is a huge jump in graphics it would also make ports have to compete with games that actually use that technology making them most likely sell like **** to the people who want the big expensive graphics box.

[Adrock]

Neither Microsoft nor Sony should be in any rush to put out new systems. PS3 and 360 are selling well, they have great support and no one seems to be having issues with the power of the current hardware. Both companies are in pretty good shape and WiiU isn't going to change that. WiiU may end up still being the "and" console outside of Nintendo fans who only buy Nintendo hardware. WiiU is more powerful but only Nintendo and the rare 3rd party exclusive will ever truly take advantage of that extra performance boost. It would just seem like a waste to start over. Nintendo will always be Nintendo off in bizarro world doing their own thing and that shouldn't affect Microsoft and Sony. In fact, releasing new hardware only to leapfrog Nintendo may have a more damaging effect if 3rd parties don't feel the need to move on. Microsoft and Sony should enjoy their established install base for as long as they can.

[Ceric]

Yes, I see in the end a Revision being released not a full overhaul.  Like a Smaller PS3/360 with maybe an upgrade to the Wireless and Hard Drive speed.  A 360 with a Multi-disk loader built-in so if Developers actually need to use more than a DVD can handle since that will be common to have Media like that you could just load all the discs for a game at one time.  Items like that.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I've said it somewhere before, but just looking at current 360 sales, you wouldn't think MS was gonna release a new console anytime soon. Too bad the rumors suggest otherwise, but at the same time, you wanna strike while the iron is hot, and people just now buying 360 will not be the same people buying 720's, so it's not like the 360 will just stop selling.

 

[Ceric]

Yeah but, I be ready to go but, wouldn't pull the trigger until its determined the WiiU is a real threat.  At current time it really isn't, except for those who have used it.

[BlackNMild2k1]

MS is ready to go. They should have dev kits out by early 2012 at the latest. Doesn't mean they can't send the final chip back to the oven though and let it cook some more if they wan tot continue to milk this gen a little longer. But that is a discussion for a different topic [Xbox720 in 2012!?]

now back on topic
Sony to reveal PlayStation4 sometime in 2012 too!?
There is no way Sony is gonna give MS another year headstart especially if Nintendo has already launched too... right?
http://www.industrygamers.com/news/playstation-4-unveiling-next-year-rumor/

IndustryGamers has now heard from industry sources (at a top developer) who wished not to be quoted that Sony is looking to unveil a PlayStation 4 sometime next year as well.

So they are gonna unveil in 2012, but that doesn't mean they are gonna launch in 2012. I'm sure Sony wants to make sure they have a seat at the table, since they don't have the luxury of saying "The Next Gen Starts When We Say It Does" just like they didn't last time either, and definitely want to join in on spoiling any Nintendo and/or MS party if possible. Chances are though if previous rumors still hold true, is that Sony will be selling dreams based on hypothetical demos as they would barely have an actual working system since they would have just started fresh on it again earlier this year.
I guess it's possible that they might go back to the previous design which I believe was rumored to be that PS3.5 which the comments from CEO of Sony Spain/Portugal would suggest. But I doubt they will show their system at next E3 if MS doesn't pull a Wii and show off a 360+ (Xbox420) or if MS doesn't announce a late 2012/early 2013 release date.

"I think it's unlikely [that PS4 will be announced in 2012]. Wii U isn't going to pressure anyone, it's Nintendo's catch up to this cycle, and the other guys are going to see if the tablet integration is worth copying first. That means nobody is going to finalize specs till they see if Wii U succeeds. I am sticking to 2014, so an 'unveil' in 2013,"

"I think Sony introducing Vita at a low price point and likely lowering the PS3 price later this year will ultimately provide a gauge on the overall health of the PlayStation business. I think after that point Sony will be in a better position to speak about any next generation console. For now, I think the focus at Sony should be on ensuring a steady lineup of quality first and third party games for existing platforms,"

"I would not bet on seeing a PS4 at the next E3. Sony really needs to push out the lifespan of the PS3 and I think Sony's investors would not be happy with a new console system. It would mean a major loss and an early end to the PS3, which if it can last several years longer could start making some decent money for the company. Yes, they will feel pressure from the competition, but I think pressure from investors and the financial community wins the day."

"Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo all have a similar goal; they want their consoles to be constantly powered on in the household - from watching movies, television, and of course playing games. But as the mobile, tablet, and social sector grow, it is forcing gamers to go outside of the traditional console experience to interact with these emerging style of games. Of course, I do admit that Microsoft is certainly the forerunner and their recent E3 2011 presentation certainly paints a clear picture that the future of consoles are not 'video game consoles,' but a complete entertainment medium."
"I don't feel the Wii U is a threat to either Microsoft or Sony's current platforms. I believe the biggest threat remain themselves and their attempt to elongate this current cycle. The data is pretty clear; it is incredibly tough to launch successful new IPs late in a cycle, as there is simply too much consumer muscle memory that hinders our desire to play new IPs. Consumers are more open to trying new IPs and new style of games when the technology itself is relatively new. It is very tough for consumers to break habit,"

[SixthAngel]

Neither Microsoft nor Sony should be in any rush to put out new systems. PS3 and 360 are selling well, they have great support and no one seems to be having issues with the power of the current hardware. Both companies are in pretty good shape and WiiU isn't going to change that.

Xbox and PS3 aren't selling that well.  The last NPD numbers have the Xbox barely beating the Wii (24k) and the Wii beat the PS3 by 59K.  If that is enough for Nintendo to release a new console with their massive install base it sure as hell should make MS and Sony want to release new consoles.  Nintendo stops selling record high levels and just about matches the others and I hear "Release a new console, no one is buying yours."  Xbox and PS3 continue to sell at the level the Wii is now and its "They're doing great, no new console necessary."

Yeah but, I be ready to go but, wouldn't pull the trigger until its determined the WiiU is a real threat.  At current time it really isn't, except for those who have used it.

By the time the WiiU became a real threat they would already be dead.  Either they put RD on the console years in advance followed by the giving out devkits years in advance or they let Nintendo get a 2 or 3 year head start.


Pachter doesn't deserve the attention he gets.  Mr. "Nintendo needs to release an HD console now. " He recommends waiting 2 years to release to see if the tablet is a hit.  You can't wait like that in this industry.   If it is a hit by then it's too late.  Me tooing in there years later with a move/kinect device just wouldn't cut it.   For better or worse they've really got to make their bets before the race starts.
 

[BranDonk Kong]

Last month was May...typically a slow month. I for one don't want any of the big 3 releasing a new console any time soon (okay, Nintendo can), because I work full time in console repair...so I kind of need people to own the old consoles, and need the prices to stay put so that it's worth getting them fixed.

[Chozo Ghost]

Last month was May...typically a slow month. I for one don't want any of the big 3 releasing a new console any time soon (okay, Nintendo can), because I work full time in console repair...so I kind of need people to own the old consoles, and need the prices to stay put so that it's worth getting them fixed.

But what if the newer consoles have a high failure rate? Then there should be a lot of business for you.

You could also use your console repair experience to do like some people do and take old consoles and then make them into portables. Then you could sell those for a profit.

[ThePerm]

Hits are supposed to be sudden, if you spend to long looking at them youll avoid them all together.