Topic: 3DS Destined for 2011 Release?

[NWR_Neal]

Nintendo revealed their fall release dates and there doesn't seem to be a window for the 3DS to fit into.

http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/blog/23881

Nintendo revealed the release dates for what appears to be their game lineup for the rest of 2010 today. The release dates seem to cut down the chances of the 3DS coming out in 2010, which means it's even more likely that Nintendo's next handheld won't hit until 2011.

The premium release date of the Sunday before Thanksgiving (November 21), which in the past has been populated by a marquee title or a new system, is occupied by Donkey Kong Country Returns. The prior weeks in November are also booked solid, with PokePark, FlingSmash, and Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Mini-Land Mayhem releasing the three previous weeks.

Nintendo doesn't usually double up on releases on the same day, and the fact that all of November is more or less booked solid seems to make the odds of the 3DS launching in the month very unlikely. The only apparent chance we have of seeing the 3DS in 2010 would be if it comes out after Black Friday, which wouldn't make sense.

While I could very easily be proven wrong, all of this information seems to narrow down the North American release of the 3DS to Q1 2011. It might still come out in Japan this year, as their release schedule is currently unknown. For those who haven't kept score, the official word from Nintendo is that the 3DS is coming out before March 31, 2011, which is the end of the fiscal year.

[Pale]

Everyone should have just listened to Reggie when he said "next year" on Fallon.


It was never coming out this year.

[Caliban]

Who cares. It's going to be released within the year, so it's all good.

[GK]

I don't have the money to buy it this year anyway. Besides, the wait gives developers more time to get their stuff bug-free & ready to play.

[vudu]

Nintendo doesn't usually double up on releases on the same day, and the fact that all of November is more or less booked solid seems to make the odds of the 3DS launching in the month very unlikely.

For what it's worth, the GBA SP was released on the same day as the Wind Waker.  That said, I still never thought the 3DS was going to be released in America in 2010 and I still feel the same way.

[NWR_Neal]

Yea, but the SP wasn't a brand new system. I'd be flabbergasted if Nintendo busted out DKCR and 3DS on the same day or something to that effect.

[Deguello]

How about on the same day as FlingSmash?

When the DS was released it was very close to DKC2 on the GBA, like 5 days apart.

Besides there's nothing tying them to the days of their major game releases.

In fact, here's an old press release for Nintendo's Fall lineup for 2004, and keep in mind that the DS had not been confirmed for 2004. and would only be so later that September.

http://www.nintendospin.com/news/nintendo-announces-extensive-q4-software-lineup/

I'm not saying the 3DS is definitely coming out this year, but their release list from August isn't enough data for it not coming out this year either.

[BlackNMild2k1]

I'm not saying the 3DS is definitely coming out this year, but their release list from August isn't enough data for it not coming out this year either.

I was gonna make this exact same argument, but I didn't feel like looking up "proof" and I'm sure most of the NWR staff has me on ignore anyway.

[NWR_Neal]

Yea, but if the 3DS is coming out this year, I would be lots of money on it coming out on the Sunday before Thanksgiving/Black Friday. Historically, Nintendo releases their big ticket game or system on that date. Off hand, I know the Wii and DS were released on that date. Also, the window around the DS launch in 2004 was clear outside of a GBA port of a 10-year old DKC game, which isn't comparable to a brand new Donkey Kong Country.

I really want the system to come out this year, but to me, this is the nail in the coffin. It's too big of a release to be pushed out in December, and the November lineup has a big-ish game coming out every week.

Also, our Nintendo rep said something about how they're only focusing on DS game lineup and the DSiXL this holiday season. That could be PR speak, but I doubt it.

[Deguello]

Also, the window around the DS launch in 2004 was clear outside of a GBA port of a 10-year old DKC game, which isn't comparable to a brand new Donkey Kong Country.

That's not true either.  Nintendo was releasing Final Fantasy I and II, Metroid Prime 2, Mario Tennis, and DKC2 (which was more major than ou're masking it out to be) all in the same November.  Nintendo Released the DS in the midst of all of this.

[NWR_Neal]

I'm not saying that they won't release anything around the 3DS, but I'm saying they won't release the 3DS on the same day as another big-ish game. And if the 3DS would most likely hit on the Sunday before Thanksgiving, I don't think it's landing on the same day of DKCR.


Now if something got delayed or shuffled around, I could see it.

[NWR_insanolord]

If they had any intention of bringing the 3DS out this year, they'd have given DKC Returns a different date.

[NWR_Neal]

Exactly.

[UncleBob]

Also, the window around the DS launch in 2004 was clear outside of a GBA port of a 10-year old DKC game, which isn't comparable to a brand new Donkey Kong Country.

That's not true either.  Nintendo was releasing Final Fantasy I and II, Metroid Prime 2, Mario Tennis, and DKC2 (which was more major than ou're masking it out to be) all in the same November.  Nintendo Released the DS in the midst of all of this.

For what it's worth, the DS was able to play the big GBA releases at the time and the DS's launch software was... lackluster.  So any big GBA releases was probably thought to be good for the DS as well.

[Pale]

So I'm curious... why does everyone ignore the fact that the president of NOA told us it would be next year already?

[NWR_insanolord]

Also, the window around the DS launch in 2004 was clear outside of a GBA port of a 10-year old DKC game, which isn't comparable to a brand new Donkey Kong Country.

That's not true either.  Nintendo was releasing Final Fantasy I and II, Metroid Prime 2, Mario Tennis, and DKC2 (which was more major than ou're masking it out to be) all in the same November.  Nintendo Released the DS in the midst of all of this.

For what it's worth, the DS was able to play the big GBA releases at the time and the DS's launch software was... lackluster.  So any big GBA releases was probably thought to be good for the DS as well.

Have you ever noticed, at least recently, the systems that sell well have bad launch lineups, and the systems that don't sell well have great launches? The PS2 had a pretty weak launch lineup, as did the Wii (outside of Wii Sports and a port of Twilight Princess), and the DS, which will go down as the best selling game system ever, had maybe the worst launch lineup of any system that wasn't a total flop. Meanwhile, the Dreamcast and GameCube both had fantastic launches.

[NWR_Neal]

Because NoA as a whole still won't confirm that it's not coming out this year. Reggie's comment either was his desire or an off-hand remark.

[TJ Spyke]

So because NOA's PR arm hasn't said anything, we shouldn't believe the president and COO of NOA? He has said it will not be out this year, so to me that is confirmation that it won't be since he is the head of NOA.

[NWR_insanolord]

You of all people should appreciate the distinction between an offhand comment on a TV appearance and an official statement by the company.

[TJ Spyke]

Yes, but Nintendo has not come out and denied it. The only thing they did after that was re-state their comment about it being out before March 2011. Lack of denial is often a confirmation of something being true.

[FZeroBoyo]

Nintendo is branching out their releases so that we'll have stuff to play this fall and then the new system next year. It makes sense after a bit of thinking. 

[Jonnyboy117]

The possibility of a 2010 release looked very slim from E3 onward. Nintendo has a pretty bad DS lineup for the holidays, but that hasn't stopped them in recent years. They'll probably do a price drop or bundle to keep stimulating DS sales until the 3DS launches.

[LittleIrves]

Even though the DS launched amid many great games, we should remember it wasn't perceived to be the juggernaut it would eventually become.  It was still an unknown quantity.  If nobody showed up to buy it, Nintendo still had those other big games to boost them up.  But the 3DS has way more enthusiasm behind it already.  Which lends some credence to Neal's theory.

Do I want the 3DS in November? OH YEAH.  Will we get it?  I'm still cautiously optimistic, but a Feb 2011 release seems more likely.

[Sarail]

February's a good month for a birthday gift.

[Ceric]

As one of the 6 people in Cookeville,TN to buy a DS on launch night I resent that...  Anyways.

I don't think its coming out this year for a simple economic reason.  Shipping is currently having a hard time meeting demand since they slashed deep during the down turn and are skittish to expand back.  That means everything over seas cost more to ship and takes longer to get her.  Nintendo knows the 3DS isn't going to be like the DS and having only 20 units in a 100 mile area wouldn't cover the demand like the DS launch.

Though on the flipside, Launching the 3DS when Kinectic and Move comes out would probably take sales from those enhancements since early adopters would probably be the same for each market.