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Mafia 87: Harvest Moon - Seasons of Mafia Town. Year 5.

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Oh no! It's happening again. I'm falling behind on the story posts.....  :-[ :'(

Announcement Post
Previous Year’s Results:


MASB – Regular Townie (Killed by Vote)
TOPHATANT123 – Townie Vilgilante (Killed by Mafia)

And with that, all Townie roles are out of the game. It is just the mafia and regular townies left. If a regular townie is voted out today and the mafia makes a hit on another townie then it will be Game Over. It is do-or-die time for the townies.

Voting Time: For Year 5, the Year/(Day) Thread will be open for a generous of just about 48 hours. Voting will end and the thread will close at 11 PM EST Nov. 28 aka 8:00 PM PST Nov. 28 aka 11 AM Perth Time Nov. 29. However, the thread and Year could end earlier if a Majority Vote is reached.

Majority Vote: There are currently 6 players still alive in this game meaning 4 votes would be needed to achieve a Majority Vote.

Today's Harvest Moon Musical Selection: Lake Cave - Harvest Moon: Magical Melody.

I thought I'd go with a more serious groove to represent the high stakes we are now at if the townies make another wrong move. (Also, you may wonder why I still try to include the YouTube link/tags. Well, it actually works and shows up on my iPad when I use Safari. So, I guess the key is to use older internet search engines to see those links.)

Game has now resumed.

Well ****.

Luigi Dude:
Well the Panda and Yak hybrid was born this morning.  I'll call it a Pandak.  It has the body of a Yak, but the face and paws of a Panda.  It can survive on the Tomato's and Sweet Potato's I bought earlier.  Once again it's only $100 for a ticket to see it.

Of course now that I was successful in creating such a creature, this is only the beginning.  This town is about to become world famous.  Lots of money coming soon that the rest of you could enjoy as well if you stop killing each other every night.

Feel like I owe MASB, and the group for that matter, a big apology. I even went for a cocky one-liner along with the backstab. That's not generally how I like to carry myself in the first place, but I thought it was justified since I felt so sure he was Mafia.
In this post I will outline A.) why I voted on MASB, B.) my thoughts on the remaining players, and C.) a possible way forward.

A. Why I voted MASB
1. No votes twice in a row, then suddenly he and Lolmonade were almost simultaneously voting for MK Bungle, who I already knew was Detective.

2. As MASB says here, he was aiming for a tie. That's a terrible idea imo: this game's rules mean a tie results in a random player dying, or nobody at all.

* At the time that meant chances of a Mafia Goon going out were 3/12
* A Townie going out is 8/12 (a.k.a. 2/3 - 66%)
* A 1/12 shot of nobody going out, meaning we don't see any useful results. Townies rely on voting records to spot patterns. These are terrible odds: 9/12 possibilities (that's 75% of possible outcomes if the tie held) favoured the Mafia's agenda. A tie only helps Townies early-to-mid Day phase, to see who's covering for who.

3. His suspects were ThePerm, and NWR_Insanolord. He leaned towards ThePerm. As a test, I feed him the clearly bogus theory he quotes here. It's bogus, because there's no reason to assume everyone who voted against MK Bungle is automatically Mafia. At least 2 to 3 were not: himself and Lolmonade were already proven Townies, and ThePerm retracted his vote to reduce the votes against Bungle from a majority to a tie. (Jury's still out on Insanolord.)
However, MASB appeared to run with this theory unquestioned and never called my obvious bullshit. This made me think he was Mafia, trying to lead me (a seemingly gullible Townie) to vote for ThePerm. At this point I begin trying to mobilize votes against MASB, without letting him on I will betray him.

4. I pretend to offer to vote ThePerm alongside him, provided he votes first. Then all of a sudden he moves the goalposts and wants a 3rd person to join before voting, so I reach out to get someone to pretend along with me. Before that can happen, suddenly MASB is out here voting for Insanolord, another swerve which I interpreted as shady. At this point I felt confirmed in all the red flags I thought I was seeing.

5. There were enough votes on MASB already. The smart play would have been to wait and see if any defenders came out the woodwork, rather than close the Day early. However, I wanted to demonstrate I wasn't just trying to get others to do my bidding, and would walk the talk. Plus, it would've been cool to vote out a Mafia member on a jokey one-liner.

B. Thoughts on the remaining field

* Luigi Dude: deafening silence at zero votes in 4 days, did collect a few items the first two days which know the Mafia like to do (Crimm, Stevey). I reached out once and got a thoroughly unhelpful response. Only reason I haven't voted for him yet: on Day 2 he is tied in votes with Crimm. Then Crimm pushes him to a 3-2 disadvantage, meaning if he's Mafia, his fellow Goon tried to kill him. It went back to a tie because TopHatAnt (confirmed Townie Vigilante) unVoted Luigi Dude. See here for proof. Suspicious, but might be Townie.
* Nickmitch: was Bungle's 2nd investigation and came back Townie. Voted for Stevey, and had similar reasoning to myself on the MASB vote. I approached him pretending to be the Detective and didn't get killed for it. On the off-chance he's the Godfather in deep cover, he did a fantastic job and deserves to swindle us for the win. Most likely Townie.
* NWR_Insanolord: voted against Bungle, and joined the MASB vote at my request. Had MASB been Mafia, that would have cemented him as Townie, as it would have pushed MASB past the 2-vote threshold the Mafia can't counter without outside help. With MASB turning out Townie, it suddenly looks like a Mafia bandwagon vote. I can think of no excuses for him to be Townie at this point, unlike the Luigi Dude Day 2 shenanigans. Have asked him point-blank why I shouldn't think he's Mafia and got no reply, despite him being online at the time. At this point I think the absence story is a ruse. Prime Mafia suspect.
* Order.RSS: Confirmed Townie by Bungle's 1st investigation (easy to say about myself, I know). Spotty presence early on so I didn't have time to send in a hit if I had been Godfather. Prior to the MASB fiasco my voting track record was very good: Crimm and Stevey back-to-back, and schemed with TopHatAnt to attack Stevey that Night. Only collected 1 item, so didn't pursue Jamie like Crimm and Stevey did. I tried to save Bungle by messaging ThePerm to remove his vote. Townie.
* ThePerm: Confirmed Townie by Bungle's 3rd investigation. Prior to that I already thought he played as Townie. Not a fantastic voting track record, but did retract his vote on Bungle when I asked him. Also, I approached him pretending to be the Detective and didn't get killed. Townie.
* Wah: Just 1 vote and 1 item in 4 days. But his vote feels fishy: he says he's throwing it to another tie by voting Insanolord, but if you look through the thread it appears to me the vote was 3 for Bungle, 3 for Stevey, 1 for Insanolord at the time. Look at the timestamp on ThePerm's retracted MK Bungle vote edit: the edit comes after Wah's vote, meaning Wah pushed it to 3-3-2, not a three-way tie. ThePerm's post about the retraction is also after Wah's vote. Let's, for the sake of argument, say the timestamps (which work fine for me) are wrong and bugged, like Crimm (another Mafia!) asserts here on Day 2... Then still the very next post is Insanolord an hour later against Bungle, with Stevey waiting in the wings to finish the job. Prime Mafia suspect.
Following yesterday's debacle I would understand if nobody trusted me anymore. I feel responsible for leading everyone to follow my overconfident conclusion, and doing so in a backhanded way to MASB.
At this point I feel quite confident that Insanolord and Wah are Mafia, but I can't completely rule out Luigi Dude, who continues his streak of funny roleplay, but being unhelpful in helping alleviate suspicion of him, as demonstrated in the post above.

I don't know if it's a good idea for me to take point on a vote or not. Doing so may seem suspicious, but not doing so will do, too. If nobody votes soon I will open the voting on one of these two candidates.


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