I was thinking about the math also Spak and I think you are incorrect a little. Right now, the odds are near 50/50 in voting out a mafia member today. Slightly less due to the fact there are 8 mafia and 17 players. With Death and K.K. Slider dead, the mafia don't have much to worry about at night except one another and a Cube hit. Since one mafia knows all their members, that makes their target list 13 players. With 4 members consisting of the rival mafia, the odds of hitting one are about 33%.
Then there is Blanca. She is on the townie side right now but if she were to hit a mafia member and take his place, that's one less townie with no loss to a mafia. So, the townies are definitely in a perilous situation. It would definitely seem as though a mafia victory is in the works.
That said, it all depends on the bombers. If Cube and the assistant go down by mafia hits, the damage they do is minimal and may not be enough to stop the mafias. Especially if both mafias each hit one of the bombers. At the same time, blowing themselves up, they may damage both mafias 2 and 2 or cripple a mafia by 3 or all members. In which case, the balance is evened out again and we are playing normal mafia with no special roles. At the same time, blowing themselves up could easily finish the townies chances as well. With a vote out, who knows what the final carnage could be?
That said, the bombers may be looking for a win at this point. Things are going alright at this point. The mafias are likely to start hurting one another and so maybe they can lay low for awhile and get to the midgame and endgame position. If that happens, they have a very good shot at winning this game.
The key is how the bombers go down. If they go down through bad hits, such as a mafia hit or blanca, they do nothing to upset the balance. But if they can take a good number of people with them, anything could happen.
Topic: Dead Thread. Moved to a town called Hades or Stevey's Lament. (Read 43827 times)
