Topic: Soccer Discussion: 1.67% Chance of Being the Best Thread on the NWR Forums

[NWR_insanolord]

I was a nervous wreck going into this game with the high stakes and the poor form we'd been in. I really wasn't expecting it to then go the way it did. They left no doubt that this "must-win" game would indeed be won. I loved to see Clint Dempsey pick up a hat trick in his first game back after missing time due to an irregular heartbeat, which puts him only a couple goals away from Landon Donovan's USMNT scoring record.

[rygar]

Pulisic had another great game. Those through balls are what I watch soccer for.

[NWR_insanolord]

I'd predicted that Pulisic would take over as the USMNT's central playmaker by the time the World Cup came around, and as much as I like Sacha Kljestan and Benny Feilhaber, I don't think anybody else is taking Pulisic out of that spot going forward after last night.

[rygar]

I think you are underselling it.  Barring injury, going forward the entire team structure should (will) be designed around maximizing his talents.

Edit: another reason I'm glad Pulisic didn't go to Liverpool is he is less likely to have have that touch kicked out of him in a continental league. I hope he plays in Germany or Spain for soccer reasons but I think he can probably make the most endorsement money in the Premier League.

[Soren]

Can someone please tell MNU that they're not playing in the NASL anymore...

[NWR_insanolord]

The most goals ever conceded in a 34-game MLS season is 67. Minnesota is currently on pace to give up 153.

[NWR_insanolord]

Christian Pulisic is just amazing. We knew about his amazing technical ability, but today he not only stood up to the intense physicality and outright thuggery of playing on the road in CONCACAF, he gave as good as he got. When Clint Dempsey took a shot to the head, it was none other than Christian Pulisic getting right up in the Panama players' faces about it. This is a side of him that doesn't tend to come up in the Bundesliga, but it's going to come up a lot in CONCACAF, and I'm very happy to see that he's more than up to that.

[rygar]

I was most impressed by the physicality he showed in not being pushed off the ball when he set up Dempsey's goal.

[rygar]

The Bureau of the FIFA Council announced its recommendations for automatic qualifiers by confederation. Asian and Caribbean countries (and Canada) look set to be the big winners in the World Cup expansion. South America are the big losers. Obviously Africa is also getting a large expansion, but it's less contentious given the quality of its member teams. Here are the recommendations:

AFC: 4.5 to 8
CAF: 5 to 9
CONCACAF: 3.5 to 6
CONMEBOL: 4.5 to 6
OFC: .5 to 1
UEFA: 13 to 16

The remaining two slots will be determined by a six team play-off tournament. The FIFA Council will meet on May 9th (right before the next FIFA Congress) to ratify the recommendations.

[NWR_insanolord]

You say South America are the losers, but it's fairly likely that under this format 70% of that confederation will make the World Cup.

[rygar]

That's one way of running the numbers, but it seems somewhat of a cherry picked stat. The US makes up around 55% of the total CONCACAF population. Mexico makes up around another 21%.

I think CONMEBOL are the losers because the CONCACAF or AFC top two would likely not compete for a CONMEBOL title. They could very well struggle to even qualify if they were in direct competition with CONMEBOL teams. If there was a truly open qualification process, CONMEBOL and UEFA members would make up almost all the seeded teams when it came time to draw groups.

I'm not necessarily saying they got screwed though. I see the merits for doling out the slots this way if you want to expand to 48 teams, but I don't see this as the final destination anyway. There is so much uncertainty around the Russia and Qatar world cups that I still see a real possibility of FIFA ostensibly being cut off at the knees (like the NCAA was when the P5 schools split away to form the CFB playoff system). To me that's the biggest motivation for the CONCACAF and AFC expansions. To keep the US, China, and India from cutting a side deal with the UEFA domestic clubs to create a new (and more lucrative) competition.

Edit: I had typed CFA where I meant AFC.

[NWR_insanolord]

CONMEBOL's just a weird situation. On one hand, there are only 10 teams in it, but on the other, they're pretty much all at least somewhat good. Going by the current Elo rankings, the lowest South American team is Bolivia at 45, which would rank 4th in CONCACAF, 5th in Asia, and 6th in Africa.

[NWR_insanolord]

Clint Dempsey was forced to stop playing soccer for 6 months and now he seems to be hellbent on making up for lost time. After scoring four goals in two games for the national team in the last week, he comes off the bench tonight for the Sounders and completely changes the complexion of the match.

Even though this matchup between two of the most potent attacks in MLS in Seattle and Atlanta ended in a 0-0 draw, Seattle dominated the match from Dempsey's entrance in the 56th minute until the final whistle, with Deuce bringing his trademark arsenal of no-look passes and general creativity plus the best scoring chance of the night for either team with a spectacular diving header that just went off the post. So glad to have him back.

[Soren]

FIFA really really wants India and China in the World Cup for obvious reasons. If this new expanded Cup were truly about quality they wouldn't be giving out so many spots to CAF and AFC countries instead of UEFA and CONMEBOL countries where they truly belong. Even CONCACAF is probably getting one spot too many.

[rygar]

There are reports that Canada, Mexico, and the US are expected to submit a joint bid for the 2026 World Cup. Quite honestly, as much as I love international sport, the IOC and FIFA are horrendous to the host countries. This is a good compromise, although ironically these are three countries that already have a lot of the "necessary" infrastructure already in place. However, this is obviously going to be very difficult and expensive for traveling fans. It also presents a backdoor qualification route for (most likely of the three) Canada.

[NWR_insanolord]

2026 is the first year of the expanded format, and between that and their general improvement I fully expect Canada to be in that World Cup, host or not. They were nearly one of the top 6 in CONCACAF this time around and they're only getting better.

[rygar]

It would be nice to see, but I think having the backdoor route is a good safety net for CONCACAF. The confederation as a whole is improving, so the only two teams I fully expect to qualify are Mexico and the US. I would be surprised if Costa Rica didn't. I would definitely put Canada amongst the strong contenders for the last three, but it's definitely not a sure thing from my perspective with so many competive teams in the middle band of the confederation.

[rygar]

There are rumors of Caribbean nations wanting to break off into their own confederation...

These rumors already seemed ridiculous to me, but the WC expansion and this news should eliminate even the rumors: http://reut.rs/2nkMWtz

CONCACAF is on the verge of following UEFA's move in eliminating most international friendlies and replacing them with a intraconfederational league. This is a massive boon to the development of Caribbean soccer and a very meaningful geasture by Mexico and US. Although I have some minor concern that the US is losing its own developmental games against global heavyweights, the truth is those will be harder to get after UEFA adopts the league format anyway. Otherwise I'm very hopeful this move will stoke interest for me as a fan. This is also more evidence suggesting that the off-year Copa changes are coming. I'm really liking the direction the international cycles look to be taking.

[NWR_insanolord]

There was talk at one point of a Nations League-style competition that would have combined North and South America, which I'd have liked a lot more than this proposed CONCACAF-only one, but it's intriguing nonetheless.

[rygar]

I'm guessing both the combined leagues and combined Copa weren't mutually feasible, and I think if those were the two options, I like this route much better for CONCACAF as a whole. It is probably in the long term interestes of US soccer too, since it will invariably improve the overall quality of the confederation.

[NWR_insanolord]

I agree that this is probably better for CONCACAF as a whole, but I think the U.S. (and Mexico) would benefit more from regular competitive matches against South American teams than beating up on St. Kitts and El Salvador.

[rygar]

I understand, but if the choice was a combined league or a combined copa, which would you choose?

[NWR_insanolord]

I think a combined league would be better for the development of U.S. soccer than the combined Copa America would, but I'd still probably have to go with the spectacle of the combined Copa America. Last year's tournament was a whole lot of fun, I had an amazing time at the match I went to, and I'd love to see that happen on a regular basis.

[rygar]

I was curious because I think it could go either way. The league would get the US more games against better competition, but I don't think it would be guaranteed that the South American teams would take the league competition as seriously as they will a Copa, and the quality of the Copa games should be higher given the pre-tourney camps and adjustment times for the European club players. Another development benefit of the Copa to me is that it is a knockout tournament format like the WC. I think I'm leaning towards it being the better option even from a developmental perspective.

[NWR_insanolord]

Those are fair points, but I'd still take more games spread out over more time for development. It would allow for rotating in more players and the ability to make real adjustments to the squad and tactics over time instead of packing everything into one month with a set roster.