Topic: The Big Thread of Wii Launch Pessimism: All the things that could go wrong!

[Kairon]

Come on guys, if something can go wrong, it will. So we'd better gird ourselves for these eventualities now, while we still have the energy and distance from the issue to retain some sanity. I definitely don't think ALL these things will go wrong, but no one can deny that as our knowledge stands now, these are ALL possibilities for disappointing things to occur at launch. Let's ditch the Nintendo evangelism and take a long hard pessimistic look at how Nintendo can be set-back this holiday season.

And no, this thread was not created purely for IanSane's enjoyment. Again, this is to refocus us Nintendo fans on the pessimistic possibilities of the future so we can start to take an impassionate look at our favorite company. Once again, these things vary in likelihood, but who cares, just the analytical exercise of anticipating pitfalls will serve us well!

1. What if the Wii exhibits hardware malfunctions on an X360 level?
Sure, this is Nintendo we're talking about here, but the technology is new (dual-medium slot loading disc drive) and advanced (motion sensing). And besides, this is launch, bad stuff always happens at launch.

2. What if the Wiimote+nunchuck combo costs $50?
That's how much the wireless X360 controller costs, the wired version costs $40. Prices have simply gone up... not to mention how much more the Wii controller has built into it.

3. What if third party games cost $60?
They could get greedy!

4. The Wiimote might last only 10-20 hours on full charge/batteries
Nintendo's already distanced themselves from the 100-hour wavebird. But the Wiimote has motion sensing, rumble, bluetooth wireless, AND a simple IR camera! What if this thing's battery life is just inhibitive for marathon gaming?

5 . Lackluster online support at launch
We already know that SSBB isn't going to make it at launch (it's landing 2007 sometime), and we already know that Metroid 3 won't be online either. Pangya may not be online either. But what if CoD isn't online, or Red Steel, or Need For Speed Carbon! We know almost nothing about specific Wii games going online, all we have is speculation and vague promises. Maybe Nintendo hasn't even gotten everything worked out yet, maybe it'll be like the DS: online sometime later?

6. Small Virtual Console Library at Launch
We all know that Nintendo's back catalog is drool-worthy, but what if retro support is small and lacks the lesser known titles? What if Nintendo only delivers 10-15 games from their vaults ta launch, we only get those same old 6 Genesis classics (Sonic, Altered Beast, etc.) and Hudson only gives us those three basic TG-16 titles (Bonk, R-Type, Adventure Island)?

7. People complain about Zelda for Wii feeling "un-whole"
What if the gaming media latches onto this game and starts complaining more about how Nintendo shoe-horned a GC game into the Wii than about the Wii's benefits?

8. Nintendo uses a proprietary 12cm DvD format ala GC
All we know is that the Wii can read 12cm DVD discs, but no ones even told us a single thing more about the format, what if this is an unexpected faltering spot?

9. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles doesn't make launch in USA
We've seen precious little of this game despite it's announcement long ago, what if it only makes Japan launch?

10. Third Party ports don't make good use of Wiimote functionality
Perhaps less ambitious third party releases like Call of Duty 3 and Need For Speed: Carbon that are intended for multi-system release won't have enough care put into their porting to make good use of the Wiimote and thus feel clunky, un-fun and inferior. Luckily, EA has avoided this possibility by devoting one entire studio just for Wii ports, so Madden is safe.

11. People find the pointer-functionality to have too many hoops
We know that Halogen lights can confuse the Wii-mote, that the Wiimote actually needs to have the sensor bar in a cone of vision, and that it only works from distances up to 10m. Possibly, in the end, these dfficulties will end up being small. But also, they could end up being significant enough to frustrate casual and non-gamers, and maybe more than just a handful of them.
~via IanSane

12. Sketchy broadband/router support
The DS has had some issues in the past with this same issue. What happens if Wii has difficulty connecting through college dorms? I'm doomed!
~via Ceric

13. Developers get lazy and their ports rely on WiiClassic?
What happens if developers, when porting their games in from other systems, start getting lazy and not even attempting to use the nunchuck wiimote to full possibility, instead half-assing the Wiimote control scheme when they also know they can use the optional Wii Classic controller.
~via Ceric

14. Not true full backward compatibility with Cube?
Hey, even the PS2Slim has issues here. The X360 has huge compatibility issues with lots of games, and the rumors are that the PS3 is going to include an ENTIRE PS2 inside it just to avoid similar issues.
~via Ceric

15. What if there are no high end cables for the ones of us that use them like on the Cube?
I can hear the technophiles crying foul now if they're forced to shop online again.
~via Ceric

16. Nintendo marketting turns out wiik
Nintendo has never had the inclination (or ability) to spend as much marketting their products like Sony, Microsoft, or even EA. What if the Wii launch is no exception, with just a few tv ads and a lack of those win-a-system tie-ins with radio stations and fast food chains?
~Professional 666

17. Nintendo Demo Booths turn out wiik
The Wii presents a very significant marketting challenge: how do you get people to see, get intrigued by, touch, and play the games? And then how do you keep them from stealing the demo controller?
~Crimm

18. Delays (MP:3? Red Steel?)
What if some games can't exactly make it out for launch day? What would a 1 month delay for MP3 mean? A one-month delay for Red Steel?
~couchmonkey

19. Launch "window" blues
Taking that further, what about the whole Launch Window thing? If some key titles come out a month and a half after launch, does that factor in signifcantly, or have we all learned to just accept that "launch window" terminology?

20. Red Steel sucks
And thus, doesn't sell well, and thus, scares away third parties. Then we've gotten nowhere.
~Magik

21. Microsoft drops XBox price for core package to $250, premium for $350 this fall.
DAMN YOU MS!

22. Microsoft releases a "simple" controller knock-off that distracts customers and confuses the issue.
DAMN YOU TO HECK!

23. The graphics just don't cut it.
Nintendo says that their games will be perfectly fine graphically on SDTVs. Whether or not that's true, everyone's assuming that the mainstream gamer won't notice too much difference. But what if... this is a pessimism thread after all!
~Nemo81

24. People complain about the wirdness of FPS controls.
By now we know that the pointer doesn't atually "point." It points at the sensor bar, which moves a cursor (either visible or invisible) on the actual display or tv, wherever that display or TV may be. What if gamers and players are too weirded out by this? What if people like, oh, I don't know, the dreaded CASSAMANTISANE harp on this for hours on end?

25. The Wii becomes victim to a slew of cash-in FPS games.
The obvious use of the Wiimote for FPS games makes developers glut the market and not try as hard as they should. Fear the future.
~ReverendNoahWhateley

and...I can't think of many more at the moment. Surely you other pessimists out there can help me?

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com            

[Requiem]

1 - We are talking about Nintendo here.
2 - A valid point.
3 - Hey, it could happen, but I doubt a third party would be dumb enough to do that since their already competing with Nintendo for sales.
4 - This is one of my biggest concerns. Easily eliminated, though, with a dock for the Wiimote.
5 - SSBB: online
6 - 15 games! If nintendo released 5 of their top games for each system, that would be a damn good start! Same with Sega and Hudson.
7 - If it's fun, that's all that matters - screw the press.
8 - Well, I doubt Nintendo would implement the same format as they did with GC simply because the GC drive ran backwards. The Wii is expected to play DVD's so I doubt they can do the same thing here.

[Kairon]

Quote
Originally posted by: Requiem
5 - SSBB: online

SSBB doesn't arrive at launch. It's projected sometime in 2007..which a pessimist would assume means Holiday 2007.

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[JonLeung]

Killjoy!  >

Well, I think what likely will happen is the same thing that happens with any generation for anybody - some wacky or cool Japanese game doesn't get translated and get a local release.  Boo!

I will admit that I believe the controller could be pricey - or at least it wouldn't surprise me.  I don't know much about the technical workings of motion sensitivity and wirelessness and speakers and a possible microphone, but the more stuff they have in there, the more expensive it will likely be.  I suppose the "more stuff in the controller" could also drain battery life faster, too.

[Ian Sane]

I think the biggest thing that could go wrong is if the controller issues that were present at E3 are common place.  There was a lot of talk about how distance from the sensor and the lighting of E3, etc. affected the controls.  Now I trust Nintendo to deliver the goods but I don't trust third parties.  If it's difficult to really get the remote to work smoothly there might be a widespread amount of really crappy Wii games.  That would have a very negative impact on the public image of the Wii, even if none of those games were from Nintendo themselves.  Nintendo is always saying you've got to try it for yourself.  Well what if a person's first impression is a third party game with horrible controls or what if the demo unit at E3 has the same issues as some of the E3 kiosks?  I think Nintendo had a great E3 but I don't like that there were any issues with the controller whatsoever at the show.  A controller should work 100% of the time. PERIOD.

Other than that though I think because of Sony's insane price that Nintendo merely just has to not suck in order to, at the very least, increase their market share.  I think if they release good games on a regular basis they'll do quite good just because of the price.

The ultimate thing to go wrong though is a market crash caused by all three companies losing their focus.  Sony and MS are making multimedia centres and Nintendo is going after non-gamers.  No one is really focusing on the core gamer group.  So assuming their new audience doesn't bite I could see all three consoles selling well below expectations.  Nintendo however probably has the best backup plan because at least their console is affordable.

[JonLeung]

Oh, yeah, that's possible - about how the "you've got to try it" thing could backfire, or people just might not get it.

I've seen kids struggling with Donkey Konga at Toys R Us.  If they don't get the point of using the Wiimote, they might get turned off of it altogether.

[Hostile Creation]

You know ten meters is thirty feet, right?

[Ceric]

Actually it's simple enough to reverse the spin of a motor and needing a little extra piece for DVD's would then make since.  Sort of like a loader.  I don't think Nintendo will stop using that technique because it was so successful.  Pressing I don't think it matters one way or another because they are just copies of the metal disc and then pressed.

This is from a Quick Google search explaining the process.  If you can watch "How its Made" on the Science channel they have a much more complete version.

$50 for the Wiimote Combo would stink.

5. Also be bad
6. Would be disappointing but not really that bad.  Now 2 years from now is a different story.
7.  I think we are going to get something similar no matter what.
8.  This will happen.  Nintendo is very anti-piracy.
9.  That would be a shame.  But if it means a more fully featured game with more incentive to the back tracking, like giving more of those little stories each time (hint, hint) or online/DS FF:CC compatiblilty.  I'm all for it.
10.  This is going to happen unless Nintendo is putting it's foot down at the top level.  All we can do are avoid those games and tell the publisher why.  The last part is really important.
11.  I think this goes with 1.  Nintendo knows what happens when a technology flops for a company like them.  It's doom.  If this does happen I would think there be people who would be working those 80hrs weeks to make it right and get the new version out ASAP.
12.  Sketchy broadband/router support.
13.  Every game uses WiiClassic
14.  Not true full backward compatibility with Cube. (In particular MP:2, Battalion Wars, and F-Zero (They don't work on my Cube and I'm holding out for a Wii, ok MP:2 works most of the time.))
15.  No high end cables for the ones of us that use them on the Cube

[King of Twitch]

You know, we still don't know much about DVD playback! If the add-on player device or the remote is expensive, it'd be a real downer.  

[please let me in, please]

I dont think anything will be too expensive, come on!!!!! its nintendo here. They keep prices around $30 dollars usually, and i remember in an interview with ign that iwata stated to not gain too much at launch.

[IceCold]

Quote
10. Third Party ports don't make good use of Wiimote functionality
13. Developers get lazy and their ports rely on WiiClassic?

First off, I will say that I think Nintendo should pack in the classic controller at launch. Not only will it allow VC games to be played, but the whole userbase will have it, and therefore 3rd parties will be allowed to use it for their games. I agree that Nintendo's focus is on the motion sensing, and most of the games I would buy would use that, but there has to be the option for 3rd parties. What would you rather, not getting a game at all or getting a port that uses the shell?

However, classic included or not, this is one of my greatest worries about the Wii. HD is being pushed hard by both Sony and Microsoft. They are both forcing games released onto their consoles to support HD. With this said, most of the multiplatform games for the next cycle of consoles will be designed with High Definition in mind. So how does the Wii factor into all of this? Well, the results could differ greatly. One one hand, multiplatform developers could choose to forgo Wii development altogether. This is not likely, and most of these developers have already confirmed support for the Rev. A more likely scenario would be that companies wanting to make an easy port will quickly scale back their games and slip them into the Wii's library. The end result could be an unpolished game which may even look like a GameCube one graphically. Look at Tony Hawk, for example. This would not bode well for Nintendo. It was often a complaint that the GameCube got the worst multiplatform ports of them all, since they were quick ports and not developed specifically for the Cube. The same situation could happen with the Wii, except potentially worse. Combine this with the GameCube's infamous 3rd party software tie-in ratio and the Revolution is in a tough situation.

And then there's the whole aspect of multiplatform titles trying to use the control scheme. These titles probably won't be developed specifically to cater to the Wii's features. The same companies wanting a quick port will either use the shell or try to add in features at the last minute. If the control scheme is used as a gimmick and does not add to the game in any way, it will mean trouble. I suspect this that many games will use the NRC in an unintuitive and unimaginative way for multiplatform ports, and this could even make them worse games than they started off as.

The good news is that even though many of the multiplatform games are not up to par graphically, they have so far used the controls pretty well - Tony Hawk and Madden being the examples. Hopefully, Nintendo continues to go around to 3rd parties offering their help on how to implement the controls. And, of course, the exclusives will really show what the Wii can do - they will push the interface and the hardware.

I am also quite worried about the 2nd console strategy - I never liked it. If Nintendo successfully attracts the new market, then it won't matter, but for the moment, I don't know if it's a good idea, though it may be necessary. This goes back to multiplatform games (I may be overestimating the power of these, but I feel that they are very important, as they add to the shelf space and make the system seem to be supported well, even if they aren't actually that good). If the Wii is treated as a second console, no one will buy multiplatform games for it, as they would buy the games for their 360 or PS3. 3rd party software sales are already bad on Nintendo systems, and this could make them even worse. But if the port is unique enough and better than the other versions because of the controls, then it would be perfect for Nintendo.

It all comes back to the controls.

[Ceric]

Actually I wasn't talking about lazy developers on number 13.  I was seriously talking about if every game had a WiiClassic alternative configuration.  That would really kill the launch for me but, I could see that happening.

No offense to anyone.  I don't mind if some games offer it but I expect most to use the WiiMote Combo in some way, shape, or form.  I'm a little worry about the And Proposition to but, it makes since PS3 and XBox360 are gunning for a similar experience.  The library of the PS2 and the online that Live offers.  Nintendo, wants these but, is after unique games.  That's what Nintendo's strength is but the blood is getting dilute and they need new blood.  In the end Nintendo's end goal is basically the same but there going the long way to get there.

[ssj4_android]

Where are 1-7?
Oh, and I think Wii's router support will be a lot better, since it's b instead of g, and presumably isn't rate limited.

[NinGurl69 *huggles]

Nintendo's marketing will suck flaccid and Wii will crash and burn in a flaming ball of doo-doo.

Quite a few Nintendo-published games and 3rd party games were released without any high-profile advertising (not one TV ad).  As such, the sales didn't cut it.  Word of mouth and IGN flash ads don't cut it (Nintendo Power is such a laffable idea) when Sony and Microsoft spend the $$$ to run TV ads for a single product for a whole month (and sometimes more).  Then in the other corner we've got piss-weak-flaccid Nintendo's 2 week maximum advertising run on GameCube games, while I remember Eidos ran Soul Reaver ads for nearly a half year.

Yeah, good job Twin Snakes, Killer7, Eternal Darkness, Phoenix Wright, Battalion Wars, Lost in Blue, Trace Memory, Rub Rabbits, Beach Spikers BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH UALEUALEUALEUALEUALEUALEUALEUALEUALEUALE

[Ceric]

I do have to say that I see more Nintendo adds then any of the other systems.  Excluding what I see on the internet.  Maybe it's just the sort of TV I watch.

Kairon bring back 1-7 without them this is getting confusing.

[Strell]

Quote
Originally posted by: Ian Sane

The ultimate thing to go wrong though is a market crash caused by all three companies losing their focus.  Sony and MS are making multimedia centres and Nintendo is going after non-gamers.  No one is really focusing on the core gamer group.  So assuming their new audience doesn't bite I could see all three consoles selling well below expectations.

Yes.  I wholeheartedly agree.

I mean, the 360 doesn't have hardcore genres on it.  No sir.  You won't find a new FPS on there every month.  That stuff is played out.  We only get dating sims these days.  When was the last time you took up the role of Hero Protagonist, killing the opposition, be they in World War 2, or in space, or in Hell, or in the jungle?  I never see tanks or sniper rifles on the 360.  It's all purses all the time.

And the PS3?  What are they thinking?  I can't think of any hardcore gamers that would enjoy MGS4, FF13, Tekken 6, Virtua Fighter 5, Devil May Cry 4, and Resident Evil 5.  I only know old grannies and little school girls who play those.  Hell, even my mom plays Tekken.  She whoops ass with Eddy Gordo.  So I can see why the PS3 appeals to her, but certainly not a hardcore audience.  Big numbers after a game series = so not hardcore.  You lost me when you got over FF12.  12 is the limit.  13 is sooooooo middle aged soccer mom.

Nintendo doesn't even count anymore.  They don't make Zelda, or Metroid, or Mario, or Warioware, or Mario Kart, or Kirby, or Smash Bros, or Fire Emblem, or Paper Mario, or Advance Wars, or Mario Party, or F-zero, or Pokemon anymore.  All they want to make is Cooking Mama and Nintendogs.  Don't expect to see anything for you 1980s gamers.  Ever.  Nintendo just wants to make games that train your brain.

If you disagree with me, you are a terrorist, and I hope the FBI is after you.

 

[BlackNMild2k1]

1) What if Nintendo succeeds and we are no longer rooting for the under dog.?
2) What if because of this new found success, Yamouchi come back to his throne and rules Nintendo withan iron FIST(again)?
3) What if gamers really aren't into the whole Wii thing and decide to pony up the cash to buy PS3's instead?
4) What if MS actually releases some surprise games that are HUGE hits in Japan and people completely ignore PS3 and Wii?
5) What if I actually had another rediculous reason to fill in "what if" #5?
6) What if most Wii's turns out like launch Xbox's, 360's, PS2's and probably PS3's too.... DEFECTIVE, and with only a 3 month warranty?
7) What if I actually took this pessimistic thing seriously and stop trying to fill in the missing 7 reasons that should have been b4 #'s 8 - 15?

p.s. yes I see the Zelda reasoning but it wasn't numbered  

[Crimm]

1. Nintendo fails to design a good demo display.  If it's all about playing the display better be good.

2. Nintendo demos are like GC displays, most non Nintendo games are just videos.  I don't wanna see videos, especially on the Wii.  Graphically, videos don't play into Nintendo's hand.  They're gonna be blown out of the water in terms of looks.  They need every game even mentioned at demo kiosks to be playable.

3. People aren't willing to give it a try outside of the gaming community.  Nintendo wants to go mainstream, but they're going to have to convince people to try it.  That could be really hard.

[Mario]

Why start at 8? WTF? I'll just pretend 8 is 1.

1. It's already happening, and Nintendo deserves it for baiting us along for 3 years then SLAPPING US IN THE FACE.

2. Noone cares.

3. Noone cares.

4. Noone cares. Buy Red Steel.

5. Nope.

6. Maybe. Not an issue for me though.

7. No. If so, those developers wont be worth our time anyway and they'll learn that.

8. Noone cares.

The only thing i'd be worried about is shipment problems, there wont be enough Wii for everyone. Plus there's a higher chance they could stuff it up with all the fancy technology going into this beast of a gaming system.

[Avinash_Tyagi]

Since we're being pessimistic over the silliest things how's this, a meteorite explodes in the upper athmosphere and debris hits every last truck WW carrying Wii consoles wiping out the entire launch shipment.  

Quote
1) What if Nintendo succeeds and we are no longer rooting for the under dog.?

Seriously it seems that that would be the worst result for this forum, everyone seems to enjoy being pessimistic.

[wandering]

Seriously, Kairon, replacing your own list with other people's? Why?

Quote
I think the biggest thing that could go wrong is if the controller issues that were present at E3 are common place.

I think that's my biggest concern, as well. We know the IR functionality will have issues, will it affect people's purchase? Though the fact that, even with though there were problems with the demo units at E3, no one except Joystiq really seemed to care about them....

[Kairon]

Weird things are happening! I didn't kill my list! My title is screwed up! I think I fixed it! What is going on?!?!?!

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[King of Twitch]

How's your sanity meter?

[Kairon]

Fixed...for now...

~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com

[thejeek]

Worst case scenario, barring the whole meteorite thing, would be that Nintendo don't bribe the retail industry enough and big retailers put the Wii on special shelves in the basement with with mud smeared all over the boxes so you can't tell whats in them and with a sales force consisting only of crazed rabid monkeys and crocadiles. The air conditioning is switched into reverse and the whole place is like a hothouse and the pheromone emitters are switched from fresh bread to '69 vintage blotter LSD...