Gaming Forums > Nintendo Gaming
Not a hater but... (future prediction)
ThePerm:
--- Quote from: Miyamoto on January 21, 2017, 01:34:15 PM ---
--- Quote from: ThePerm on January 21, 2017, 12:35:49 PM ---
When we look at price we can see that unlike the Wii U, most likely Switch's price will go down as time goes on. Also, game prices will get cheaper. 2 years from now a $99 switch is going to be really appealing.
--- End quote ---
I think the Switch will have the exact same problem as the Wii U, in that the elaborate hardware makes it very difficult to significantly bring the price down even over many years. It's one thing for chips to get easier/cheaper to produce but when you start factoring in touch screens and what-not it becomes a lot harder.
You can take it to the bank that Nintendo's next "console" will be a glorified dongle that plays all Nintendo games and offers mass media and retails for $99.99. And guess what? It'll be another 100 million seller. Nintendo's just going to make some costly mistakes before they realise what makes money and what doesn't. But you'll have it by 2020. It's so obvious even Nintendo can't avoid it. Oh and just to repeat, the future of Nintendo portable gaming lies in an iOS/Android suite with optional bluetooth controls. Why spend hundreds of millions on R&D only to produce a product that is inferior to what is already available?
--- End quote ---
The Wii U and the Switch are different in terms of hardware. Wii U had far more custom stuff going on than the Switch does. Nintendo is able to lower the price on the DS line on a regular basis. The Wii U had a weird non standard resolution screen. The resolution was not a regular standard and was quite rare at the time. But capacitive touch 720p screens of it's size are much more common. Also, there is advantages with going the Tegra route. The chips are meant to be thrown in everything. nVidia puts these things in cars. Tegra chip manufacturing is going to keep things cheap.
Nintendo has said they were producing about 2 million consoles for launch. The pre-orders are already sold out. That means Switch has already done better than the Shield Line even before it was released.
So, in 2 years there is going to be a portable console that is $150 to $99. It's going to be loaded with Nintendo games. It'll already be loaded with a bunch of RPG games from third parties. Virtual Console library will have tons of indy games, classic games from 8-bit to present. Any problems with storage will be solved by SDXC.
Miyamoto:
--- Quote from: Agent-X- on January 21, 2017, 11:33:25 PM ---
I know you said profit...
--- End quote ---
Then why are you talking about anything else? Valve and Nintendo, although operating in a similar market are vastly different companies. One area where they do overlap is the digital distribution of games, so let's take a look at that shall we?
First of all, let's start with Steam. Valve are quite cagey on sales/revenue and being a private company, they are under no obligation to reveal exact sales figures/revenue/profit details (I would be very interested to read the article/press release that you site claiming that "in Valve's best year (2014) their revenue was 1.5 billion, please post a link), but Steam Spy puts the figure for 2015 at $3.5 billion.
http://gearnuke.com/steam-sales-2015-valve-generated-total-3-5-billion-paid-games/
Now let's take a look at Nintendo with regards to online distribution. according to this article from Nintendo Life, it states that in 2015 the Nintendo eshop generated a revenue of just over 3 Billion yen, or or $270 million
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2016/04/nintendos_eshop_revenues_hit_a_new_high_driven_by_dlc_and_generation_i_pokemon
The article also states that 2016 was Nintendo's best year for online distribution but I don't have the Steam numbers for comparison.
So, going by 2015's numbers we have:
Steam revenue: $3.5 Billion
eShop revenue: $0.27 Billion
Also worth noticing is that some months on Steam eclipse the entire year of eShop. Also, GTA V alone accumulated half the revenue of the entire eShop.
--- Quote ---As far as Sony and Microsoft are concerned, it's still not very comparable.
--- End quote ---
I'll just leave this little doozy here for anyone who may have forgot, courtesy of Eurogamer and many other outlets:
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-04-28-sonys-psn-is-making-more-money-than-all-of-nintendo
Nintendo is a truly huge company and their revenue will reflect that, but good business management is what dictates profit... or lack thereof in Nintendo's case.
Miyamoto:
--- Quote from: NWR_insanolord on January 21, 2017, 08:17:10 PM ---
Nintendo first party games don't go on sale that often because they don't have to.
--- End quote ---
Neither do Sony or Microsoft. They do it because they like money.
--- Quote ---
Games don't go on sale out of the goodness of developers' hearts, they go on sale because they stop selling. That's not Nintendo being greedy, that's Nintendo being in a better market position.
--- End quote ---
There are Nintendo games (Mario Kart, Splatoon, etc) that will sell incredibly well, and there are Nintendo games that will sell moderately/poorly. Nintendo could boost the sales of these games by lowering the price (like you suggest Sony and Microsoft do), but they choose not to. They would sooner sell a small number of units at a high price, than a larger number of units at a fairer one. sounds a bit like greed to me.
--- Quote ---Other developers would keep things at full price if they still sold at that price.
--- End quote ---
Another important factor that we need to add to this is the rate of sale. Steam, PSN and Live are willing to go lower year on year to reach the widest audience possible.
--- Quote ---You'll notice that there are lots of sales on the eShop for third party games.
--- End quote ---
]And they are noticeably less frequent and less favourable when compared with their PSN / Live equivalent.
--- Quote ---Nintendo's prices are higher because people are willing to pay them.
--- End quote ---
Some people. Look at Nintendo's software sales over the last 10 years. They've been a lot a better. Grease the wheels, incentivise your audience with generous offers/sales. There's a reason why the competition does it, it works!
Miyamoto:
--- Quote from: Stogi on January 21, 2017, 09:06:55 PM ---Miyamoto, I think you're underestimating the Switch's potential to attract attention and instantly provide fun. The ability to play two players anywhere is an incredible idea. Because...
Kids may have cell phones these days, but can you imagine a couple buddies playing MarioKart in the cafeteria? You could easily see other kids fighting over who's next because everyone wants to play. And soon enough, it'll be on everyone's wish list.
--- End quote ---
Dude, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But that price point? Those games... that aren't there? Times have changed, playing habits have changed. I just can't see this thing catching on.
Agent-X-:
--- Quote from: Miyamoto on January 22, 2017, 05:31:18 PM ---
--- Quote from: Agent-X- on January 21, 2017, 11:33:25 PM ---
I know you said profit...
--- End quote ---
Then why are you talking about anything else? Valve and Nintendo, although operating in a similar market are vastly different companies. One area where they do overlap is the digital distribution of games, so let's take a look at that shall we?
First of all, let's start with Steam. Valve are quite cagey on sales/revenue and being a private company, they are under no obligation to reveal exact sales figures/revenue/profit details (I would be very interested to read the article/press release that you site claiming that "in Valve's best year (2014) their revenue was 1.5 billion, please post a link), but Steam Spy puts the figure for 2015 at $3.5 billion.
http://gearnuke.com/steam-sales-2015-valve-generated-total-3-5-billion-paid-games/
Now let's take a look at Nintendo with regards to online distribution. according to this article from Nintendo Life, it states that in 2015 the Nintendo eshop generated a revenue of just over 3 Billion yen, or or $270 million
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2016/04/nintendos_eshop_revenues_hit_a_new_high_driven_by_dlc_and_generation_i_pokemon
The article also states that 2016 was Nintendo's best year for online distribution but I don't have the Steam numbers for comparison.
So, going by 2015's numbers we have:
Steam revenue: $3.5 Billion
eShop revenue: $0.27 Billion
Also worth noticing is that some months on Steam eclipse the entire year of eShop. Also, GTA V alone accumulated half the revenue of the entire eShop.
--- Quote ---As far as Sony and Microsoft are concerned, it's still not very comparable.
--- End quote ---
I'll just leave this little doozy here for anyone who may have forgot, courtesy of Eurogamer and many other outlets:
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-04-28-sonys-psn-is-making-more-money-than-all-of-nintendo
Nintendo is a truly huge company and their revenue will reflect that, but good business management is what dictates profit... or lack thereof in Nintendo's case.
--- End quote ---
Because revenue like it or not is our primary indicator of how much money is coming into a business.
As for that Valve source, I don't have it. I see that Gearnuke article at the top of my search results now, and there's also numerous other results from 2015 stating Valve earned $1.5 billion in 2014, so you ought to already have my sources.
Here's my counterpoint: Even at this latest rumored amount of $3.5 billion, that's Valve at their high point. Nintendo is at $4.46 billion at their low point. Have a look at Nintendo's revenues going back to 2008.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/216622/net-sales-of-nintendo-since-2008/
When I said they're (meaning Microsoft, Sony, and Valve) just not very comparable, it's because of where Nintendo is at in comparison with where they've been. If you were around for the Gamecube, then you know that you don't bet against Nintendo. We will see this play out again.
To conclude, you are basically only here to state unfavorable facts about Nintendo. I'm not a Nintendo fanboy, and I hate the gouging that they do. And I don't even really like their decisions. Go ahead and bet against Nintendo. We'll just sit back and watch. And we'll laugh at you if they sell more than 5 million units in the first 12 months.