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The question of influence (jumping right over the other drama in this thread) seems linked to perception as much as sales. The Wii U was seen as a failure, despite many people owning it, so the games tend to be ignored in the bigger picture. Despite Nintendo saying that they aren't competing with Microsoft and Sony, they release consoles that are essentially the same, so they are measured by the same standards. In that respect, the Wii U was hardly worth considering.
If the NX is a portable that can stream video and accept wireless controller input, that would put it in the same class as any modern phone or tablet. The only difference is that Miracast has more lag than Nintendo would presumably accept. Still, having this sort of setup would necessarily mean compromising on hardware power. Nintendo could play games with the numbers, since it would be comparing very different architectures, but the downgraded ports (or lack thereof) would make the reality clear. The reason I bring this up is that many would not consider it a "real" console, and that might help Nintendo. Without the expectation of direct competition with the other consoles, the measure of success would be different. It might be for the best, assuming Nintendo can pull off the marketing of this new thing.
The other aspect is scope. Nintendo tends to churn out their franchise games with polish, but not much innovation. They used to push the industry forward because they were passionate about their field and the company structure supported that. Mario Galaxy and Splatoon are modern examples of that, and I hope more room is made for those games. Having only one platform to develop for, or two if you consider phones, might allow teams to take more time and chances.
As far as sales->influence goes, it's a pleasant bit of arm chair theorycraft, so I doubt my musings have much value. That said, I'd peg 35 million hardware units as the minimum number GROSS to consider for a Nintendo console exercising influence on the market. But in addition to that, I'd expect that number to also represent a third of the market. In today's generation, a third of hardware sales would pace to 24 million sold at this point in time, which I don't think the XBox One has hit either.
It's interesting what you say about perception KeyBilly. I've been talking about influence share in terms of console hardware sales numbers, but if we look at the bigger picture then we have to accept that influence across the population should also take into account handheld and mobile. The rise of the smartphone and what it means for handheld gaming cannot be ignored.
My above musings may be even more non-sensical taking that into ccount, and then even MORE so if NX will eventually have a separate handheld unit as part of the platform that will eventually replace the 3DS in the ecosystem.
In that sense maybe Nintendo has an even steeper hill to climb to wield influence AND demonstrate a viable market for both game makers and game players.
Nintendo seems to be tacking into Mobile as an important partner experience (not replacement) for their core gaming experiences. I'm not quite sure right now how I'd measure how Nintendo affects videogames as a whole when mobile is added to the equation. After all, the smartphone market uses vastly different metrics to describe itself and its player base.
Taking this expanded field in accout, Nintendo is definitely not the sole torchbearer for gaming, not that they ever were. But they're probably just one player among many adding to the diverse sphere of gaming. In order to be a large champion for their values though, I definitely feel like 35 million NX Home Console units sold wouldn't be enough to push that forward.
I guess the elephant in the room is wondering what the size of the future for console and handheld dedicated gaming hardware is next (half?) generation. Is the challenge to reverse a shrinking of that market, or is the challenge to seek out a different way of evaluating, coalescing, and accessing a player base?
Yeah no bullying going on whatsover I must have imagined it all.
Honestly, I'm the one feeling bullied by that post you have up there.
The Rat proclaims his name for the world to see, says he hates Paper Mario, talks about the Game Cube being trash, and everyone hates him.
As far as being a Sony fanboy it's how you worded your compare/contrast paragraph. You imply financially Nintendo can't keep afloat, and then you say Sony was never having problem with the ps3 brand and then in the next sentence you say "ps3 was only unprofitable for a couple of years"
Even if you weren't a Sony fanboy, you seem like some sort of anti-nintendo troll or plant. I used to have a friend whose whole job was to troll games forums. So, its not out of the realm of possibility. Your name and avatar are so counter your stance on games that it seems to be sheep's clothing. You just seem to be the biggest downer on these forums with the most skewed/misinformed perspective.
We have Iansane who is really negative, but brings up good points based on sound logic. He has the information clear, he sometimes differs in opinion. Actually, I'm probably closer to an Ian than a Bill Aurion.
with Ian, over the years he has had a reputation for being really negative. He makes excellent posts however. Really thought out. He gets criticism for his negativity, but at least he has his **** together. His biggest problem this generation was he didn't have a Wii U and he would talk **** about it, and its hilarious how now that he has one, he is really warming up to it.
Then we have you whose information is all screwed up. At least with Iansane he's been around here for the last 10-15 or so years. He's been responding to the same articles and topics as I have.
This whole talk has made me want to make a documentary about n64 - early ps3 era. Ian would be a good pundit.
Logged I've read before as well that despite the fact that the WiiU is pretty similar similar to the 360 in raw specs, there's custom voodoo going on that allows Nintendo to deploy impressive lighting and whathaveyou without eating into main computational tasks. This would track with certain WiiU games looking very good despite the last gen baseline (and I assume ZeldaU will be duly impressive, Xenoblade with better art). I'd expect a similar scenario if the NX ends up being close on paper to the Xbone. Nintendo will be able to punch above that weight even if third parties don't bother learning the special sauce recipes.
They say this every generation, that Nintendo's hardware "limitations" can be easily overcome by magic that only Nintendo possess. It's a myth perpetuated by fanboys that don't accept reality. I remember endless discussions on how The Conduit supposedly looked better than Halo 3 and Gears of War. Sega fanboys said the same thing about the ill-fated Saturn, that nobody could program the thing properly. 30 years latter and we know this was false. The machine was hard to program for but it was also VERY WEAK hardware to begin with.QuoteAnd how many years have the competition spent swimming in red ink?
Well let's see, you are comparing Sony, a company that invested billions into cell phones, computers, televisions, car audio, tech gadgets, smart tv apps, motion controls, VR, Spider-Man 3, and a whole bunch of other ****, to a company that ONLY invests as much money as they have to stay afloat?
Yeah okay Sony was in dire financial trouble but it was NEVER because of the Playstation brand. You do realize that the PS3 was only unprofitable for a couple of years, and most of that was marketing and focusing all the attention on using Blu Ray to kill off HD-DVD, or did you forget that Sony and friends had to spend 18 months throwing millions of dollars at Blu Ray to get it to the place it is?
Nintendo hasn't always cheaped out on specs, but they have always cut something gamers and developers considered essential to cut costs. Even with NES and SNES they did this but they were able to MASK that by using chips in the cartridges. Something they can't exactly do anymore can they? Maybe that is why they want to bring the carts back to bring back the FX chips to give them an edge?
This is one of the worst revisionist Sony fanboy in Mario clothing post I've ever read. Its filled with so many levels of misinformation. I think you need to read the video game industry death thread to even get a picture of how badly Sony was doing during the ps2 and ps3 years. Sure Sony sold a lot of ps2s, and right before ps4 launched finally picked up its ps3 sales, but they were making consoles and selling them at a loss for almost a decade and it was putting a big hole in their pocket so they could propogate the new video format. That being said... I'm glad they got over that hump and are doing well again.
To say Nintendo is living check to check to stay afloat is ridiculous. The company has existed since the 1800s. They save their money and don't spend it. Nintendo could survive several failed consoles.
read this article
http://www.dailytech.com/Report+Nintendo+is+Second+Most+Valuable+Company+in+Japan/article9040.htm
Nintendo did extremely well during the last generation. They sold millions and millions and millions of consoles with a high profit margin which set them up for the next few decades. As soon as Wii got in last years drought mode it was back to negative nancy Nintendo hate.
Fact is despite with Wii U apparently dead I would still rate it better than Wii. I got really well made games from Nintendo and a bunch of good 3rd party games. It's done pretty well to get me to keep playing.
and Saturn wasn't 30 years ago. I was 11 not 2. I can also tell you it was developers talking about that **** and not fanboys. Fanboys who had internet were rare. We all read magazines. Playstation was a piece of **** and so was Saturn. The idea of a video accelerator was new and was barely developed. The previous generation of hardware's focus was how many colors you could put on the screen, and how many sprites and layers could be handled.
Early Saturn games look better than early Playstation games. If they had released Shenmue on Saturn it would have surpassed many n64 games
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foZUcPQAMvg
but Saturn's sold like **** because the Sonic game never came out. I remember looking at Toy's R Us ads and seeing thing the Sonic Xtreme adds only to have the date pushed back until it got cancelled.
also watch this video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_OchOV_WDg
They say this every generation, that Nintendo's hardware "limitations" can be easily overcome by magic that only Nintendo possess. It's a myth perpetuated by fanboys that don't accept reality. I remember endless discussions on how The Conduit supposedly looked better than Halo 3 and Gears of War. Sega fanboys said the same thing about the ill-fated Saturn, that nobody could program the thing properly. 30 years latter and we know this was false. The machine was hard to program for but it was also VERY WEAK hardware to begin with.
First and second, _fuck_ yourself.
Third, I didn't say any nonsense about Wii games looking like Gears of War. I said that despite having specs in some ways worse than the 360 on paper, the WiiU can in some aspects output better visuals than PS360 because of the system's bespoke architecture that obviously Nintendo knows inside and out. I'd expect them to build in a similar, if not as pronounced given a likely move toward the PC-in-a-box design of the current generation, set of goodies for the NX that would give them some extra juice beyond a raw output similar to an Xbone.
If you want an actually cogent comparison instead of the asinine strawmen you brought up, look into the development of Rogue Squadron on Gamecube.
I've read before as well that despite the fact that the WiiU is pretty similar similar to the 360 in raw specs, there's custom voodoo going on that allows Nintendo to deploy impressive lighting and whathaveyou without eating into main computational tasks. This would track with certain WiiU games looking very good despite the last gen baseline (and I assume ZeldaU will be duly impressive, Xenoblade with better art). I'd expect a similar scenario if the NX ends up being close on paper to the Xbone. Nintendo will be able to punch above that weight even if third parties don't bother learning the special sauce recipes.
And how many years have the competition spent swimming in red ink?
