Show Posts
1
General Gaming / So how will this gen play out? Post your predictions here.
« on: September 05, 2013, 12:40:39 AM »
Alright by the end of this year the next gen will be on full swing, Wii U will have had a whole year on the market, PS4 and Xbox One should theoretically be out by then, so lets have a place to share everyone's predictions on how things will, or should, turn out. You can be bold, realistic, or just wildly off the mark it is your choice. I will get things started since it is my thread.
Consoles
I think by the end Ps4 will be in first place buy by a much smaller margin than previous generations. I am thinking somewhere around the 50-60 Million somewhere in that area.
I think Wii U will come in second place somewhere around 35 millionish by the time it is all said and done.
I do think that Nintendo will pick up sales with their games as they look to be gearing up to give it a serious push but I think it will be N64 for third parties for the most part, there might be a few cross gen stuff and EA might stay away the entire run but someone will step up to take their place, I suspect Take 2 maybe Sega Sports will make a come back. Midway might make some headway in that area if they can forgive Nintendo for their past sins.
Xbox One will struggle, coming in at a distant third place around 25 million tops. I foresee them losing the third party support they have grown to enjoy and Steam rising up to take their place in the market.
I think Steam Box will be a moderate success, somewhere between Saturn and N64 numbers, probably around 15 to 18 million tops. I think it will appeal to a certain breed of the PC gamer who wants a more traditional console experience but with PC gaming quality. I also think that once they get going they will shake things up in the industry.
Mobile
I think 3DS/2DS is going to surpass Game Boy numbers once it really takes off. I suspect that after a while Nintendo and other companies will start releasing regular apps for the device that make it a semi-useful Tablet type device for certain consumers. I am figuring total hardware of 3DS compatible branded machines in the 120 million life time it will have a little longer life than Game Boy because I suspect Nintendo is going to continue to marry 3DS to Wii U in the future.
Android
as a gaming platform I think Android will fade away in the next five or six years. I think once Windows RT and Phone get going things will turn around for them and Android will slowly fade into obscurity at least for gaming especially once Steam makes it way onto phones/tablets that are of good quality and a fair price.
iOS
I am biased but I will still predict the end of Apple, they will slowly wind down and they will lose their expanded user base, reverting back to rely on their hard cores who will not be enough to keep things going with the fractured market and increased competition from Microsoft in their areas. I also think eventually ipads will become a fad and fade away, same with iPhone, i Pod might stick around as a media device for a while longer but I think by the end of the decade Apple will = Commodore.
Microsoft
I have faith in Windows I really do, I think now that they are getting the kinks worked out and addressing most consumers concerns with Windows 8 and RT they will start to get their tablet market share up to their PC market share forcing Google to buddy up to them and Apple to go away. I think with their recent investment into Nokia that shows they are taking the mobile industry more seriously than ever and they will bounce back. I am predicting by 2016 Windows Tablets will be up to about 80% of the market or in that area.
GAMES
Sony will fair pretty well this gen with more exclusives and strong third party support. I also think they will be the place for the dumping ground of anything and everything like PS2 was. I don't think they will get as many big new franchises as before, but I think they will get all the major sequels.
Nintendo will bounce back next year for sure. They will win back their core crowd and then their expanded crowd will start to consider the console once the games they want hit. I doubt they will ever get third party support back like SNES days so I am expecting them to either license games directly, or rely heavily on 2nd party and indie devs to pick up the slack. But I have faith their next Mario, Zelda, and Smash Bros. will surely be worth getting the console at for most fans once the price gets to their comfort zone. They can forget the casuals and try to get them onto 3DS because the gamepad is not near as casual friendly as the remote was.
Microsoft is going to be in trouble, they will start to lose support mid way into year two, similar to Gamecube, and it will be all downhill from there, moneyhats will get thrown around but I think they will have fewer third party games than before and will slowly reconsider their position in the game.
Steam with the rise of the Steam Box Valve will have more bargaining muscle to push more devs into releasing more games for the service especially the digital and catalog games which will pull people away from Microsoft.
Fanboy fantasy wishful thinking, Sega will release a REAL next gen console in 2015 and blow everyone away forcing Nintendo go to third party and make games for Sega for a change, MS will go bankrupt after buying out Apple only to discover it was a lost cause and Sony Playstation will just limp along as the second console people buy for PS2 compilations and HD Remakes.
Consoles
I think by the end Ps4 will be in first place buy by a much smaller margin than previous generations. I am thinking somewhere around the 50-60 Million somewhere in that area.
I think Wii U will come in second place somewhere around 35 millionish by the time it is all said and done.
I do think that Nintendo will pick up sales with their games as they look to be gearing up to give it a serious push but I think it will be N64 for third parties for the most part, there might be a few cross gen stuff and EA might stay away the entire run but someone will step up to take their place, I suspect Take 2 maybe Sega Sports will make a come back. Midway might make some headway in that area if they can forgive Nintendo for their past sins.
Xbox One will struggle, coming in at a distant third place around 25 million tops. I foresee them losing the third party support they have grown to enjoy and Steam rising up to take their place in the market.
I think Steam Box will be a moderate success, somewhere between Saturn and N64 numbers, probably around 15 to 18 million tops. I think it will appeal to a certain breed of the PC gamer who wants a more traditional console experience but with PC gaming quality. I also think that once they get going they will shake things up in the industry.
Mobile
I think 3DS/2DS is going to surpass Game Boy numbers once it really takes off. I suspect that after a while Nintendo and other companies will start releasing regular apps for the device that make it a semi-useful Tablet type device for certain consumers. I am figuring total hardware of 3DS compatible branded machines in the 120 million life time it will have a little longer life than Game Boy because I suspect Nintendo is going to continue to marry 3DS to Wii U in the future.
Android
as a gaming platform I think Android will fade away in the next five or six years. I think once Windows RT and Phone get going things will turn around for them and Android will slowly fade into obscurity at least for gaming especially once Steam makes it way onto phones/tablets that are of good quality and a fair price.
iOS
I am biased but I will still predict the end of Apple, they will slowly wind down and they will lose their expanded user base, reverting back to rely on their hard cores who will not be enough to keep things going with the fractured market and increased competition from Microsoft in their areas. I also think eventually ipads will become a fad and fade away, same with iPhone, i Pod might stick around as a media device for a while longer but I think by the end of the decade Apple will = Commodore.
Microsoft
I have faith in Windows I really do, I think now that they are getting the kinks worked out and addressing most consumers concerns with Windows 8 and RT they will start to get their tablet market share up to their PC market share forcing Google to buddy up to them and Apple to go away. I think with their recent investment into Nokia that shows they are taking the mobile industry more seriously than ever and they will bounce back. I am predicting by 2016 Windows Tablets will be up to about 80% of the market or in that area.
GAMES
Sony will fair pretty well this gen with more exclusives and strong third party support. I also think they will be the place for the dumping ground of anything and everything like PS2 was. I don't think they will get as many big new franchises as before, but I think they will get all the major sequels.
Nintendo will bounce back next year for sure. They will win back their core crowd and then their expanded crowd will start to consider the console once the games they want hit. I doubt they will ever get third party support back like SNES days so I am expecting them to either license games directly, or rely heavily on 2nd party and indie devs to pick up the slack. But I have faith their next Mario, Zelda, and Smash Bros. will surely be worth getting the console at for most fans once the price gets to their comfort zone. They can forget the casuals and try to get them onto 3DS because the gamepad is not near as casual friendly as the remote was.
Microsoft is going to be in trouble, they will start to lose support mid way into year two, similar to Gamecube, and it will be all downhill from there, moneyhats will get thrown around but I think they will have fewer third party games than before and will slowly reconsider their position in the game.
Steam with the rise of the Steam Box Valve will have more bargaining muscle to push more devs into releasing more games for the service especially the digital and catalog games which will pull people away from Microsoft.
Fanboy fantasy wishful thinking, Sega will release a REAL next gen console in 2015 and blow everyone away forcing Nintendo go to third party and make games for Sega for a change, MS will go bankrupt after buying out Apple only to discover it was a lost cause and Sony Playstation will just limp along as the second console people buy for PS2 compilations and HD Remakes.
